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- Best odds on the Grand Final |
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| MOONEE VALLEY : MANIKATO STAKES - 24th SEPTEMBER 2010 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 3M FRIDAY NIGHT MEETING |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): Finally the weather seems to have cleared a bit in Melbourne, and blow me down if the sun didn’t even come out and say Hi. Bathers and beach towel are at the ready. Onto a GOOD(3) track this week, few showers around but track should stay firm, with that lovely little bit of cushiony comfort that the MV StrathAyr track gives. Like last week watch for some form reversals back onto a firmer track. Rail is OUT 3M here – and MV has had real problems with serious track bias last couple of months. Last two meetings when rail was OUT 3M and OUT4M on the 24/07/2010 and 21/08/2010 were dynamite leader’s tracks, and those that didn’t lead made ground by sticking to the rails around the corner. Then last meeting 11/09/2010, rail TRUE it was a serious swoopers track, favouring those running on out wide, and no one wanted to lead. This wasn’t entirely unexpected - often rail TRUE at MV favours swoopers and rail OUT favours on pacers – but it is not usually that dramatic. MV night racing often favours on pacers too – can you see where this is heading? Get on the leaders ! Yes – there is a strong likelihood of a leaders track with the rail out, under lights, so keep an eye on the early races and adjust betting accordingly. Or do we need to remind you of this meeting in 2008 when 100-1 shot CEFALU lead all the way to win the JRA Cup ? Actually quite like betting on this meetings, so let’s double the stake again to $100 this week. Even though the feature race is a small field with a short priced favourite, the JRA Cup and the Bill Stutt States are always excellent betting races. And yeah, think we might pass on the 55 second challenge 955 metre races – thanks anyway. There are three solid each way bets that we are pretty keen on tonight, Race 5: 7-AVIENUS, Race 7: 5-SERVANT, and Race 8: 3-SHAAHEQ. Just need to work out the best way to collect on them. RESULTS : Track races pretty fairly, they can win leading or coming from behind, although there is a lot of pressure up front in a few of the races. A few winners cut the corner and sneak up behind tiring on pacers. Tips go just OK - but they are all obvious short priced favourites. And we take on Bart and come off worse for wear - yet again. When will we ever learn ? Three solid each way bets all turn out to be duds. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 3-SHAAHEQ $10 EW X QUINELLA : Race 8: Box : 3-SHAAHEQ, 11-CRISTALLO, 4-SOLAR CHARGED x $5 = $15 X Pretty keen on this one in the last. Fitter for the 2 runs in which have both been OK – but have both been on slow ground and suspect she might improve a lot back on the dry track. Stuck on OK 1st up, then we were keen to lay her 2nd up, inside barrier, wet track, giving weight to the rest of the field down the straight at Flem and she actually ran really well and was challenging for the finish. She was hard up against the rail and that was the worse going that day. There is a lot of speed in this race, so even if the track is favouring on pacers think she can sit off them out wide and finish over the top of them. Main danger is the Sydney visitor and favourite 4-SOLAR CHARGED who is a leader, but looks like there will be a fair bit of pressure up front. Value runner is the 11-CRISTALLO who has run really well last 2 starts here and looked the winner last start before being swamped on the line. Very keen on the (3) each way, save with a box quinella on the others. RESULTS : Takes sit out the back and runs on a little, but never looks likely. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 7-AVIENUS,$10 EW X QUINELLA : Race 5: Box 7-AVIENUS, 2-RAINBOW STYLING, 3-PRECEDENCE x $5 = $15 1st 3-PRECEDENCE W=$3.60, 2nd 2-RAINBOW STYLING W=$13.20 QUINELLA = $22.30 = 22.30 x 5 = $111.50 We did collect on this one last start, but we are going to stick with her. This is a bit harder and there is a fair bit of talent in this field, but this race is often won by one on a sharp upward spiral and think she might be the one. She did have a few things go her way last start, got the perfect sit on a tear away leader, and the rest of the field was a bit further back than they should have been because of some interference. But she flattened for home around the bend and streaked away – they didn’t really make much ground on her, and loved the way she went to the line – ears back and neck stretched out. Always shown ability and just get the feeling she is about to step up a level. There isn’t much speed here at all, so you would probably want the jockey to take her forward again from an outside barrier. Save with a box quinella on 2-RAINBOW STYLING who will get a perfect on pace run here in a race with not much speed, coming off a win last week, and the 3-PRECEDENCE who is going along really well for Bart and can position handy if required. RESULTS : 7-AVIENUS sits just off the pace, runs into the race on the home turn, but gets outstayed by some stayers on the rise. Don't think she stays and found the 2000M too far. 3-PRECEDENCE continues to do everything right towards the Cups, and 2-RAINBOW STYLING going along really well and way over the odds as was always going to get the run of the race here. Saver quinella saves the day for the Betting Portfolio. BEST EACH WAY : Race 7: 5-SERVANT $7 EW X The Bill Stutt Stakes looks a really open race, but maybe rove this one in quinellas and trifectas as will probably be in the finish. Fitter for the 2 runs in, was caught wide 1st up and stuck on OK, and 2nd up was very wide all the way and got hampered for a run about 100M out when sticking on OK Should be on pace which will be a plus if the track is favouring on pacers. Solid each way bet. RESULTS : Never likely BEST ROUGH : Race 2: 7-BELLE OF DUBAI $3 EW X This is an extremely ordinary race so might as well go for something at value. OK win/place strike rate, fitter for 2 runs in, hopefully will race on pace or go to lead in small field and track might favour on pacers so worth some play money. QUINELLA : Race 6: 6-HAY LIST, 4-EAGLE FALLS x $5 1st 6-HAY LIST W=$1.40, 3rd 4-EAGLE FALLS W=$12.70 The (4) looks the value runner in the main race, will sit out wide on the speed and put himself into the finish. Quinella with the short priced favourite should still pay OK. RESULTS : This looked a gimme quinella on the home turn, 6-HAY LIST cruising in front, 4-EAGLE FALLS about to hook out and run on - just seemed to die on its run LAY OF THE DAY : Race 4 : 8-SUNDAY ROSE at around $6 1st W=$3.10 One of Bart’s who does have a fair bit of ability and looks well weighted in this. And we tend to get stung every time we take on one of Bart’s horses as the Lay Of The Day. Drop back run on sprinter, around MV, at the new 955 M start – surely she will be giving them too big of a start and be running on too late? Especially if the track is favouring on pacers. Large field, lots of 1st uppers, you would think one of them is just going to ping to the lead and win this. Hard to see this one winning. RESULTS : We take on Bart - and come off second best - yet again. Hands up who couldn't see that coming? But seriously there is no way we are going to take a lousy $3.10 about a drop back sprinter in a full field over 955M under lights at MV. Solid win by this one who was a class above, and pounced on the break when it appeared. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. FLEX QUADRELLA : 2,3,7 / 4,6 / 2,3,5,10,14 / 3,4,11 x $5 = 5.55% 1st 3-PRECEDENCE W=$3.60 / 1st 6-HAY LIST W=$1.40 / 2nd 3-RUN FOR LEVI W=$19.90 / - Actually pretty keen we can snare the quaddie, but probably worth spending more than $5 on it. Take our 3 main chances in the 1st leg (2),(3),(7) and there will be value if the likely favourite the Williams runner the (6) gets beaten. In the 2nd leg, take the (4) and the (6) and quaddie blows out if the short priced favourite gets beaten. Go as wide as you can in the 3rd leg, and quite keen coming home on just the (3),(4),(11) in the last legs which represents value. Getting the 3rd leg is going to be the trick so load up that leg as much you can. RESULTS : Bomb out in the 3rd leg with a value runner who led most of the way. Quaddie actually pays OK and was gettable if you went one out on HAY LIST (which was kinda obvious) SPENT : $100 RETURN :$111.50 NET : $+11.50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 4-SPIRIT CENT, 1-SHRAPNEL, 7-TERRITORY Race 2: 3-JOLIE BRISE, 7-BELLE OF DUBAI, 1-WITH DECORUM Race 3: 1-SPACECRAFT, 4-PLAYWRIGHT, 6-ORCHESTRA STALLS Race 4: 5-SAVE A PENNY, 3-NETRA, 9-NOSUGAR Race 5: 7-AVIENUS, 2-RAINBOW STYLING, 3-PRECEDENCE Race 6: 6-HAY LIST, 4-EAGLE FALLS, 3-STANZOUT Race 7: 5-SERVANT, 3-RUN FOR LEVI, 14-MARAASEEM Race 8: 3-SHAAHEQ, 11-CRISTALLO, 4-SOLAR CHARGED |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-SPIRIT CENT 1-SHRAPNEL 1st W=$2.40 7-TERRITORY 3rd W=$3.80 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-JOLIE BRISE 1st W=$2.50 7-BELLE OF DUBAI 1-WITH DECORUM 3rd W=$5.10 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-SPACECRAFT 1st W=$1.50 4-PLAYWRIGHT 2nd W=$8.30 6-ORCHESTRA STALLS Quinella : $5.00 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-SAVE A PENNY 3-NETRA 2nd W=$5.30 9-NOSUGAR |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-AVIENUS 2-RAINBOW STYLING 2nd W=$13.20 3-PRECEDENCE 1st W=$3.60 Quinella : $22.30 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-HAY LIST 1st W=$1.40 4-EAGLE FALLS 3rd W=$12.70 3-STANZOUT |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-SERVANT 3-RUN FOR LEVI 2nd W=$19.90 14-MARAASEEM |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-SHAAHEQ 11-CRISTALLO 4-SOLAR CHARGED |
| RACE 6: MANIKATO STAKES GROUP 1 1200M WFA |
| Tips: 6-HAY LIST 1st W=$1.40 4-EAGLE FALLS 3rd W=$12.70 3-STANZOUT |
| Others: 2 Pace: EVEN – NOT MUCH PRESSURE UP FRONT Leaders : 6-HAY LIST, 7-LOVE CONQUERS ALL Handy : 2-REWARD FOR EFFORT, 4-EAGLE FALLS, 9-TRUE PERSUASION Back : 1-ALL SILENT, 3-STANZOUT, 8-LATIN NEWS Chances: 3-STANZOUT is in the best form of his career and his runs over the last two months have been sensational (OK – we may been biased in that we have been backing him and collecting). Flew home late Caulf 4 starts back, hit the lead and looked liked beating a smart one at Caulf 3 starts back, never looked like losing when box seated here on leaders track 2 starts back, and last start only just nosed out at Caulf when jockey probably rode him a bit too forward early on a track favouring runners on. Probably would prefer a wet track to be competitive at this level, but he is capable on dry ground as well. Like how he is going – and like that he has drawn outside barrier too – these sprint races at MV can be tricky and prefer them drawn out and in space. He can sit in clear running room off the leaders and make his run when he wants to. Probably outclassed a little, but going really well and best rough chance. 2-REWARD FOR EFFORT has had a few issues and stable have been putting in the long hours to get him back to form to re-capture his 2YO form. Resumed with a not overly convincing win at Caulf, in a fairly lacklustre field, where to be honest he was lucky to hold on in a blanket finish. But showed some class and dash in Syd start after that when he kicked clear and won with some style. Last start at MV he was on the rails (the no go zone) most of the race but managed to get to the outside in the straight but was blitzed by the (6). That was dropping back to the 1000M – 1200M today probably suits him better. Last start effort was OK – worth noting it was on a wet track which probably did not suit and should be better back on top of the ground tonight. Hard to see him beating the (6) tonight – but he is drawn immediately outside him so can keep him pocketed if he really wants to be a bully. Some chance, especially if they go forward – won’t be far off. 4-EAGLE FALLS has a fair bit of talent on his day and has been unlucky a few times in major sprints. Loomed up nicely in the Newmarket at Flemington the day the meeting was abandoned, but darn ice berg got in the way. Unlucky in the Oakleigh Plate start before that when rider should have probably protested and interference cost him getting closer. Another who has been jet setting around and using up his Frequent Flyer points. Still only 16 starts? – feels like he has been around much longer than that. Has been taken along very slowly and with patience, strung together series of gimme wins here early last spring in weaker company. Excellent record at MV, unbeaten over the MV 1200M, goes well fresh, and like his barrier – he can sit wide on the speed here and make his run when he wants. Genuine chance. 3rd W=$12.70 6-HAY LIST could be the next big sprinting thing. 10 wins from 12 starts, big horsie who totally destroyed a few of these here last start barely raising a puff. That was over 1000M, is 2nd up and up to 1200M today. Obviously versatile, only 12 starts but already been to WA, Syd, Bris and now Melb. Everyone was pretty impressed with his last win and declaring him the next big thing and not hard to see why, but still has to prove himself so make sure you get odds that reflect that. Trainer has said he is not sure about MV night because of the cold night air affecting horses lungs – as opposed to trackwork at 6am in the morning where it is always 25 degrees and beachy. Hey why don’t horses put those black marks under their eyes at night time? Anyway, barrier 1 is probably the only issue here, problem was going to be if they got trapped on the rails, but that concern has changed with the (5) being SCR who was the likely leader. Should be able to jump and run and lead and looks the one to beat. Top chance. 1st W=$1.40 Place: 1-ALL SILENT is close to being the best sprinter in the country on his best form. His first from last flying wins down the Flem straight have been breath taking. Been cashing in on his fame for a few overseas trips over the last year, Hong Kong and Dubai. Suited at WFA as classier than most of these. Has won a recent barrier trial in Syd so should be ready for a big 1st up performance. A lot of his best form is fresh too, and that’s how they are racing him now as a fresh sharp sprinter. Dry track will suit. Really it is going to come down to how the track is racing – he is a dead set drop out and run on horse, small field to his advantage as means he won’t struggle to get a clear run. But his best form is at Flemington, down the straight, around tight little MV, night rail out often favours leaders and you would think he might have a few things against him tonight. Place. 7-LOVE CONQUERS ALL suffered a serious tyre blow out down the straight last start when pulled up with a heart complaint. It is funny how the thumps (atrial fibrillation) only seems to affects favourites!. Normally horses that suffer from that recover pretty quickly so you can probably just ignore that last run. Smart on pacer sprinter and worth noting that he beat the (6) during the winter in Syd at one of it’s few defeats. Capable on all tracks, but you get the feeling might just go better on wet tracks. He probably sits outside the (6) here on the speed, if he crosses and leads that one then probably some chance here, but if they ride the (6) forward and he gets stuck sitting on the outside of it suspect the pressure will bring this one undone. Prefer place. 4th W=$9.80 Sacking: 5-BANK ROBBER SCR (bugger we wanted to back this one) 8-LATIN NEWS is one of Bart’s who will sit off these and hope to finish over the top. That would rely on the track not favouring on pacers, and also there being enough pressure up front in this – and small field doesn’t seem to be that much pressure. Lightly raced, not much wrong with form, unbeaten 1st up, proven at Group level and Bart does have a habit of pulling off surprise wins. If they are running on OK and he gets out to silly odds maybe have a saver on this one as you never know quite what Bart is capable off. 9-TRUE PERSUASION is a capable lightly raced sprinter with a good win/place strike rate, but looks out of his depth at Group 1 WFA. Wasn’t far off them here last start when was stuck on the inside on a swoopers track – but worth noting was only carrying 54kgs last start in a handicap – and has to carry level weights today at WFA. 2nd up, but stays the at the 1200M, and probably better back on dry ground. Just looks outclassed under these conditions against this lot though. Passing. 2nd W=$56.90 Summary: Small sprint field and normally you get a short priced favourite who wins and they run true to form. Good chance the track will probably be favouring on pacers, so a lot depends on riding tactics and you will pretty much know your chances after they have gone about 100M. Would almost suggest betting in running on Betfair, but it is just hard work trying to bet during the race. A lot depends on who goes forward here, the likely leader 5-BANK ROBBER has been scratched and we were keen to have something on that one as could see it running along in front and almost pinching this. The scratching improves the chances of the 6-HAY LIST who you would hope they ride aggressively to the front from barrier 1 now. Else the other possible leaders are 7-LOVE CONQUERS ALL and 2-REWARD FOR EFFORT – who could cause trouble for the favourite if he crosses or boxes him in. But we would expect to see 6-HAY LIST leading with 7-LOVE CONQUERS ALL sitting outside it and 2-REWARD FOR EFFORT behind them. Obviously 6-HAY LIST is the one to beat, last start win was seriously good. Only query would be if he gets stuck on the rails here behind runners, so you will know your chances when they settle pretty much. Even if he does not lead you would think he would be too good if he got out. Think 4-EAGLE FALLS is the genuine danger here, goes well fresh, goes well at MV, been unlucky a few times in major sprints and like that he can sit just off the speed, out wide and make sure he gets a clear run at them here. 3-STANZOUT for third, just cause we are playing favourites and he is going well. Probably not a great betting race with a small field and short priced favourite, but maybe take the quinella 6-HAY LIST - 4-EAGLE FALLS and take them two out in the quaddie. One to risk: Roughie: 3-STANZOUT The Key: Watch for barriers – really prefer to be drawn middle in MV sprint races to get a clear run. RESULTS : 6-HAY LIST is ridden to the lead and once that happens never looks in doubt. Thrashes a handy field and doesn't even need to be pushed. Amazing effort by outsider 9-TRUE PERSUASION who was hard ridden and gone on the home turn, yet somehow stuck on for 2nd. 1-ALL SILENT ran on well late, was never going to be suited at MV. Follow 4-EAGLE FALLS who ran on well and will be thereabouts this spring. |
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