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| MOONEE VALLEY : MANIKATO STAKES - 30th Sept 2011 |
| Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 3M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Been torrential rain and some seriously scary lightning action mid week in Melbourne, and showers are going to continue towards the weekend so it does look like this track is going to come up seriously rain affected. Doing the form for a genuine SLOW track and it is probably going to deteriorate further by the time you get this email. Rail goes out 3M and generally the further the rail goes out at MV the more likely you are going to get a leader’s track. Just always be wary at MV that it might be leaders, and also if the rail goes out it can make it tough for those drawn inside trapped back on the rail to get out and get a clear run. Stick to those with genuine wet track form who race on pace and are race fit. Bit hard to judge these races as good chance they are going to be torn apart by scratchings, both from the weather and from double acceptances into Sunday’s Flemington program. The JRA Cup in particular is likely to end up with a very small field with most of the main chances scratched. RESULTS : Utterly miserable night in Melbourne, the rain just does not stop, but a healthy crowd venture out and see something special when SEPOY is dominant winning the main race. Track ends up a genuine SLOW(6) and it is a dead set leader's track with the majority of the winners leading all the way. Tips go along pretty nicely with 4 winners on top and we squeeze a small profit in the Betting Portfolio. BEST BET : Race 7: 1-CHASE THE RAINBOW $10 WIN 1st W=$2.10 = 2.10 x 10 = $21 TRIFECTA : Race 7: 1-CHASE THE RAINBOW / 4-CARAVAGGIO / 2,3,5,6,8 x $2.50 = 50% TRIFECTA : Race 7: 1-CHASE THE RAINBOW / 2,3,5,6,8 / 4-CARAVAGGIO x $2.50 = 50% This one is one of the better 3YOs going around and SCR from Caulfield last week because the track got too firm. Probably should have won last start at Flemington when had to make a weaving run from last and only just missed – and the two he beat that day filled the placings last week so the form holds up. Small field and does drop back, so would probably want them to be running on OK, but also means he should be able to get a clear around them. Will start short, but think the $2.40 or so on offer at the moment is actually pretty good odds cause he does seem to have the goods. Back straight out, and let’s try to grab a value trifecta in a small field with the value runner the (4), who stuck on well on a fast pace last start, will be fitter for the 3 runs in and should go forward here and sit right on the speed in a small field. RESULTS : Pretty impressive performnace by this one to win, as he is the only horse to come from back in the field to win all night. Patient ride by jockey, but wins under a hold and is going to be a serious challenger in the Caulfield Guineas. Never warm in the trifecta bet. BEST WIN : Race 3: 2-EMERALD DOWNS $8 WIN X There are some OK 3YO fillies going around here, but pretty keen on this one. At MV here 2 starts back she wasn’t beaten that far when she went to the lead on a track that was strongly favouring swoopers and the winner of that race has since proven to be something special and the form has held up. Not disgraced in tougher race last start at Caulfield. Will go forward here, not a huge amount of speed in this and does handle it wet. Quite liking the $4 or better on offer and looks the bet of the night. Very keen. RESULTS : Very well backed and ends up starting favourite, but doesn't lead and it's hard to win if you are not a leader. Plugs on for fourth, but beaten a long way from home and never looks likely - bit disappointing. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 6-BEL SHOES $5 EW X Again we are going, fit, consistent, MV, on pace wet trackers. This one is fitter for the 2 runs in, which have both been good, placed 6 from 9 this track and distance and one of the very few who will definitely have no troubles with the rain about. Drawn out, but will go forward and should be in the finish at around $10. RESULTS : Trapped wide which is no good on this track, but disappointing. QUINELLA : Race 8: 7-ROCKPECKER #2,4 9,10,12 x $1 = $5 X Tough, consistent type who will just lob on the speed here and make his own luck, and a few of the better fancied ones in this race do drop well back and might need luck, especially if the track favours on pacers. Handles it wet and looks a nice each way bet at around $10. Take a quinella instead of backing each way, and there are a few chances at odds in this if you go around the favourite the (1) who has a stack of weight and always drops well back in this races. RESULTS : Another who is trapped wide when they are winning against the fence, but again disappointing. BEST ROUGH : Race 5: 4-DREAM PEDLAR $3.50 EW 1st W=$6.10, P=$3.10 = 9.2 x 3.5 = $32.20 Shame that one of the feature races of the night has been torn apart by scratchings, but in a small field we actually like the outsider here. Should be right at peak now with the 3 runs in, big plus of the run over the 2000M, which is rivals do not. Last 2 runs have actually been OK when finishing on well, and most important he can sit handy in a small field with little speed. Handles it wet too. Suspect is going to start way over the odds on the tote and worth an each way bet. RESULTS : Was actually the outsider of the field early in the afternoon around the $11 mark, but ends up starting a lot shorter. Still stunned this one won, was hard ridden 400M to go and look finished, but just kept going. Tough effort by the jockey. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 3 : 1-SATIN SHOES at around $3 7th W=$3.40 Well here we go. Wish us luck ? Or sneakily go behind our back and back the Lay of the Day ? Can’t blame you seeing they have won 5 from 7 so far this season. Nice win 1st up - but was lucky to hang on in the photo and although up in class hasn’t really showed much last 2 runs. Jockey reported she felt flat after the 2nd up performance, but not quite sure how well she is actually going. 1200M is as far as she wants, and she has been a beaten even money favourite over 1200M on a slow track before. This is all sounding pretty convincing isn’t it ! Lay her. RESULTS : Drifts from the time the market opens and never look likely. Nice lay. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. ALL UP PLACE : Race 2: 6-BEL SHOES X Race 3: 2-EMERALD DOWNS X Race 4: 8-HAPPY ANGEL X Race 6: 3-ATOMIC FORCE X x $5 = $5 Going with the tried and tested, on pacer, fit, MV form and wet trackers. Have already talked about Race 2 and Race 3 selections, in Race 4 the (8) is very consistent and just loves it wet – probably the trickiest leg though with the big field, and the (3) in the feature race is going along really well and should be in the finish somewhere, even if he finds one better. RESULTS : Actually all four of these were a little disappointing. You would have thought we could get one place dividend at least ! SPENT : $50 RETURN : $53.20 NET : $+3.20 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 5-ZAMORAR, 1-ADAMANTIUM, 4-SPATHA Race 2: 6-BEL SHOES, 13-MINNIE MAH, 9-INABLITZ Race 3: 2-EMERALD DOWNS, 7-MISS ZOOM, 3-GLISSADE Race 4: 8-HAPPY ANGEL, 6-WALTZES, 10-ROCKING FORCE Race 5: 4-DREAM PEDLAR, 8-DOMESKY, 7-INNOCENT LADY Race 6: 8-SEPOY, 3-ATOMIC FORCE, 4-MORE JOYOUS Race 7: 1-CHASE THE RAINBOW, 4-CARAVAGGIO, 2-WHISPER DOWNS Race 8: 7-ROCKPECKER, 2-GINGA DUDE, 10-STONEBLACK |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-ZAMORAR 1st W=$2.60 1-ADAMANTIUM 3rd W=$2.90 4-SPATHA |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-BEL SHOES 13-MINNIE MAH 9-INABLITZ |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-EMERALD DOWNS 7-MISS ZOOM 3rd W=$14.90 3-GLISSADE |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-HAPPY ANGEL 6-WALTZES 10-ROCKING FORCE 2nd W=$24.30 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-DREAM PEDLAR 1st W=$6.10 *** best roughie **** 8-DOMESKY 3rd W=$2.80 7-INNOCENT LADY |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-SEPOY 1st W=$1.70 3-ATOMIC FORCE 4-MORE JOYOUS 3rd W=$3.60 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-CHASE THE RAINBOW 1st W=$2.10 *** best bet *** 4-CARAVAGGIO 2-WHISPER DOWNS |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-ROCKPECKER 2-GINGA DUDE 1st W=$5.80 10-STONEBLACK 2nd W=$7.50 Quinella : $27.70 Quadrella : $242.00 |
| RACE 6: MANIKATO STAKES GROUP 1 1200M |
| Tips: 8-SEPOY 1st W=$1.70 3-ATOMIC FORCE 4-MORE JOYOUS 3rd W=$3.60 |
| Others: 2 Pace: NOT STRONG Leaders : 2-BUFFERING Handy : 4-MORE JOYOUS, 5-SISTER MADLY, 8-SEPOY (inside) Back : 1-HAPPY ZERO, 3-ATOMIC FORCE, 6-RUE MAPLE, 7-KULGRINDA Chances: 2-BUFFERING managed to hold on here last start in a 3 way photo finish. Great ride that day from the jockey to burn forward from the outside barrier and cross and lead – won him the race. 2nd up and up 200M here, but guess he beat home most of these last start so he can do it again. Seems to handle the wet just fine. Good winning strike rate. He is actually better suited here over 1200M than the 1000M last start, and there actually isn’t much speed in this race for a sprint race. Handles it wet, could kick to the clear, uncontested lead here and pinch this, especially if it ends up being an on pacers track. Looks over the odds at around $18 at the moment. Strong chance. 4th W=$13.90 3-ATOMIC FORCE is racing in the peak of his career, and his form is really good at the moment. Probably didn’t beat the strongest field at Caulfield, but like the way he bided his time just behind the leader and pounced and always had the race in his keeping. Last start here the 1000M was probably just a little too short for him, he was coming on very strongly at the end of the race and probably wins in another couple of strides. Proven on wet ground, drawn out, can sit off the speed here and pounce and another with a strong chance. Much to like about this one. Strong chance. 4-MORE JOYOUS is the super mare from Sydney who has proven her versatility down here before and had to love that tough gutsy win in the Toorak Handicap last year. Have to say though she doesn’t often get much in the way of opposition in her races, often very small fields at WFA in Sydney. Won 4 from 5 1st up, handles it wet, should sit handy here and make her own luck. Had a few trials so should be primed for this. This is a pretty good field though so at least she is going to get a challenge for once, and probably going to get better than even money for once as well. Obviously a strong chance, just wonder, 1st up, MV night, 1200M, seriously rain affected track, smart field whether she might actually go down tonight – still thinking about it. Chance. 3rd W=$3.60 8-SEPOY is the boom 3YO who actually for once deserves every little bit of the boom – been utterly dominant in his racing career so far and most dominant 2YO we have seen for a while. Has won both of his starts this time in, without really being pushed, has been nursed a little, but still ran very fast time at Flem. Only defeat did come on a track that was getting greasy from rain, so the wet track might actually be a bit of a worry ? Then again that defeat was coming off a break when he had already met his main Autumn target, he was only beaten < 1L and the horse who beat him is kinda smart. 3YO into open company is the question mark of course, but they always get such a great weight advantage under the WFA scale and you could consider any decent 3YO with 52 kgs here, let alone one who is outstanding like this one. The tactics are going to be crucial here, barrier 1 is an issue, don’t think he has the speed to jump and lead here?, if the (2) crosses him then there is a good chance he will get stuck on the rails, and the (4),(5) are likely to race handy and keep him pocketed. Hopefully, though small field will increase his chances of getting out. Really he should win on class, going to come down to if he handles the wet and if he gets a clear run – so he is no sure thing here. Chance 1st W=$1.70 Place: 1-HAPPY ZERO is an OS import from Hong Kong who caught the eye flashing home late there 1st up. Won a trial before that so seems to be coming along OK. Gets back and runs on and looks like the extra 200M here will suit. Unknown on seriously wet ground. He is coming into this race, meeting a few horses who beat him home here last start under the same conditions, but probably has more improvement to come than them, wasn’t beaten far and will be suited by the extra distance. Good wining strike rate and obviously has some ability. Maybe little query in that he is going to get stuck on the rails out the back here and have to come around the whole field, the pace doesn’t seem to be that strong, but probably on the up, so a rough chance. Is meeting an extremely smart field here so would have to go up another level. Rough only 5-SISTER MADLY is a smart on pace sprinter who trailed really well and was solidly supported 1st up at Caulfield. Did get a cosy on pace smother that day, on a track that was favouring on pacers, so maybe win was a little flattering, but the field did seem fairly strong. Probably gets caught out a little wide here with a few other on pacers drawn inside her. She has met the (4) twice before and been beaten both times. Probably just handles it wet, but hard to know for certain, maybe if it did get to the worse side of slow she might be a little bit of a query. Probably just prefer place. 2nd W=$15.80 Sacking: 6-RUE MAPLE is a very consistent one who just can’t seem to win, finished 2nd now 6 times from her last 9 starts – some of these were very narrow defeats too. MV form is excellent, placed 6 from 7 and yet to be unplaced this track and distance. Will sit off the speed here and try to finish on around them which may not be the racing pattern. At least can handle the wet track no worries. Been up a while and you wouldn’t think there is very much improvement to come in this one, this is up another level again as well so she is probably the only horse in this field you would say can’t win. No 7-KULGRINDA is lightly raced one on the up who has been heavily talked up by the stable. We were keen to take her on, even though she was even money favourite, 2 starts ago, just because she had the inside barrier 1 at MV with the rail out and thought she would get stuck on the rails – she didn’t and won easily. Drat. Of course – the next start when we tipped her, she drew barrier 1 again, with the rail TRUE – and then got stuck on the rails and blocked for runs. Go figure !. Jockey made bad tactical error last start to let the (2) come across and cross him. Was badly held up for runs before the turn, but have to admit think she got out in time to run on a little at least – and didn’t. Drawn out here and probably sits back and off these and will have to come around them, if that racing pattern works ? Stable has a very high opinion of her, jockey has called her a Group 1 horse, but she is onto a wet track for the 1st time, out to 1200M for the 1st time, the field she beat here 2 starts back was extremely weak, and a few of these in this race beat her home last start, even if she was a little unlucky. Not sure there is going to be enough pressure up front here for her to run on either. Obviously has a fair bit of ability, but actually happy to leave her out again tonight. No. Summary: Small field, but sometimes these races can be high pressure races and set it up for something getting a smother back in the field. Sometimes – but not sure that is going to be the case this year. Actually does not seem to be much speed at all for a Group 1 sprint – think 2-BUFFERING can cross and lead here without too much trouble, and he might be able to kick here and lead all the way, especially if there is an on pace bias. 4-MORE JOYOUS, 5-SISTER MADLY likely to be racing handy, question is really going to be whether they let 8-SEPOY out from on the rails. There is a chance that one or both of 4-MORE JOYOUS, 8-SEPOY will be scratched if the track comes up wet, so very hard to commit here. Think 8-SEPOY is simply outstanding, and if he gets clear he really should win, but he is into open class for the 1st time, into a pretty smart field, drawn barrier 1 and the biggest worry is the likely wet track, so there is plenty of room for things to go wrong. But have to take on trust, that on talent he really should just win. Is meeting top quality opposition here though in the 4-MORE JOYOUS. The value runners to consider are the 2-BUFFERING who could kick to a clear lead here and burn them off with not much pressure up front, and the 3-ATOMIC FORCE who is in top form, will love it wet and probably is the best of those coming through the McEwen. To be honest probably play with each way bets on the (2) and (3) who look the value options in this race. One to risk: 5-SISTER MADLY 2nd W=$15.80 Roughie: 2-BUFFERING The Key: Small field, not that much speed for a sprint – watch the leader ! RESULTS : Exciting race to watch and it really comes down to whether 8-SEPOY can hold the rails against the speedy 2-BUFFERING. After working, he does, but still manages to explode in the straight to a very convincing win. Super impressive. 4-MORE JOYOUS held up for runs a little, but still gets a solid thrashing. |
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