|MOONEE VALLEY: MANIKATO STAKES- 26th OCT 2018|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: CLEAR - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Fine weather Friday, they were even expecting some showers but they have not come and the track should be firming up. Though they may have put a bit of extra water on to get us through to 6pm Saturday. Rail TRUE and even though that normally means they can run on OK, suspect we will want to be on leaders tonight coming off a warm sunny day.
We gave a pretty good edition of the Group 1 Manikato Stakes with a field with some depth meaning you are getting pretty good odds about a lot of proven class sprinters. The four international runners bobbing up in the field does make it a little hard to line up though and will be interesting to see how they go around the tight MV circuit at night time, with Daryl Braithwaite screaming Horses into their ears.
We have a big field, and often in these feature MV sprints it really all come down to luck in the run, and we prefer to try and avoid horses that drop back along the inside. Interestingly, the field really splits into two here, there is the on pace pack of horses, the 14-SUNLIGHT leading, with 5-JUNGLE EDGE, 10-HOUTZEN and 13-INVINCIBLE STAR sitting on speed, and then a whole stack of quality back marker sprinters. Watch out for something that can sit in the middle in clear running here and think that is the 11-TULIP, who should get a prefect run into the race.
We are going to put the 10-HOUTZEN on top, she is a class sprinting mare fitter for the two runs in and didnít get the clearest of runs here last start. Solid MV form and should sit just behind the leaders here tonight and hopefully get a run at the right time. The clear value runner in the race is the 11-TULIP, who is going to get the perfect position in running here in between the leaders and the back markers, and drawn out to get a clear cart into the race. She has excellent MV form and is probably better suited here back to the 1200M. The 1-BRAVE SMASH has proven himself in these sort of races a few times now, and loves to loop around them and run on, as long as the track pattern allows for it. Pretty of value in the betting market in a very open wide tonight.
BEST WIN: Race 2: 3-LOPARTEGA $7 WIN
Really consistent front runner and has been a painful watch last two starts (we have been on both times), when really badly held up for runs on the rails when caught behind a tiring leader. Small field suits and really should just zoom to the lead here and be extremely hard to run down. Also note positive jockey change tonight from apprentice to senior Dunn. If the track is favouring leaders then is going to be hard to beat. Think this market is all wrong, and this one should be favourite, so keen to have a pretty decent bet tonight straight out at around $6.
BEST WIN: Race 4: 2-ODEON $5 WIN
One with a bit of ability, but hasnít really been putting the wins on the board. Been contesting much tougher races though and looks really well into this race tonight, fit and in form under this weight scale. Think the 2000M is as far as he wants, and really if he ran a strong 2000M he should have won the Naturalism with the run he had. But this race suits perfectly, on speed sit, in a race with little depth, and not that much speed and he should get the perfect cart into the race here. Back straight out at around $4.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 6-FINAL CHOICE $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 1: 6-FINAL CHOICE, 10-TRILLI, 9-PROPELLE boxed x $3 = 100%
Really donít think you can go wrong, jumping and running to the lead at a MV night meeting and this one is fit and in form and was good holding them off down the Flemington straight last start. Is drawn wide, and there is some speed in this race, but should be able to camp on speed if he canít cross anyway. Back each way at around $7 and box a quinella with the favourite the 9-PROPELLE and the value runner the 10-TRILLI who will be suited if they go too quickly in front.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 8-CALL IT A DAY $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 8-CALL IT A DAY#1,5,11 x $3 = 100%
This one is racing super consistently, and has pretty solid career stats now. Should be able to slide forward here and race on speed without much pressure, and really fought out the finish well with the favourite here the (5) last time and will get a better run than that one tonight. Back each way at around $6 and anchor in quinellas with the talented but erratic 11-BLACK SAIL, the value runner the extremely under rated 1-KINGSí COMMAND who was good here last start, and the favourite the 5-TAMASA
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 8-GLENROWAN PRINCE $2 EW
Really donít like this race at all from a betting point of view, half the field is first up and likely one will come out and run a slashing first up run, but it is also quite noticeable there isnít much in the way of speed for a 1200M race. This one is drawn well and can just jump and rail and lead and give us a good run for our money hopefully at around $21 (and expect much longer odds come race time). Took on too higher grade last start , and even this is probably a bit above his level, but think he is going to get the race run to suit tonight and his racing style means he will pinch a race like this sometime.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 11-TULIP $2 EW
TRIFECTA: Race 7: 1,10 / 1,10,11,14 / 1,2,4,6,10,11,12,14x $5 = 13.88%
We are pretty keen on this one at odds tonight in the feature race. She has excellent MV form, and has been racing super consistently this time in. 1400M is as far as she wants, so suited dropping back to the 1200M and can just see her getting the perfect run here, just behind the leaders and in clear running from an outside barrier. Currently she is 2nd outsider of the field and a whopping $41, due to the quality of this field, but think she is a genuine chance at odds. Lets take a sneaky trifecta too in a wide open race that should pay well, with two main chances Race 7: 10-HOUTZEN, 1-BRAVE SMASH to win.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
$5 ALL UP PLACE:
PLACE: Race 2: 3-LOPARTEGA
PLACE Race 3: 8-NANGAWOOKA
PLACE Race 4: 10-ANDREA MANTEGNA
PLACE Race 7: 11-TULIP
We are going to be a bit ambitious tonight, but letís just take the punt the track will favour on pacers. In which case we should be pretty safe kicking off an all up bet with Race 2: 3-LOPARTEGA, and although the Race 3: 8-NANGAWOOKA is outclassed, he is also going to lead unchallenged and may run better than the $50 odds suggest. The Race 4: 10-ANDREA MANTEGNA should be improved by the two runs in, and we are coming home on Race 7: 11-TULIP at a very luxurious $10 the place, which seems unbelievable. Totally dreaming, but looking at around $2500 for a lazy $5 outlay so why not have a fling at a small bet to win big.
Race 1: 6-FINAL CHOICE, 10-TRILLI, 9-PROPELLE
Race 2: 3-LOPARTEGA, 2-PLEASURING, 8-PIERROCITY
Race 3: 3-ICONOCLASM, 7-VINLAND, 8-NANGAWOOKA
Race 4: 2-ODEON, 10-ANDREA MANTEGNA, 3-WAGING WAR
Race 5: 11-NODOUBTABOUTIT, 5-ESSENCE OF TERROR, 9-WRITTEN CHOICE
Race 6: 8-GLENROWAN PRINCE, 5-KEEN ARRAY, 1-CHAMOIS ROAD
Race 7: 10-HOUTZEN, 11-TULIP, 1-BRAVE SMASH,
Race 8: 8-CALL IT A DAY, 11-BLACK SAIL, 1-KINGíS COMMAND