We have rain and even thunderstorms forecast for Friday night, likely starting during the afternoon so likely to have some impact on this meeting. Rail TRUE normally provides even racing at MV, just be wary of leaders as always and likely to be a plus to be up on-speed in the earlier races. For once for a night meeting we don’t have a swap of short priced favorites and most of these fields are fairly even betting races.
Manikato Stakes Preview
These MV night meeting feature sprints are always great betting races with even fields, but really the winning chances invariably come down to luck in running, you need to be in clear running and make your run on the home turn. So we normally like to tend away from those drawn inside barriers or likely to drop well back in the run. Speed here doesn’t look frantic for a feature sprint, we have lots of drop back sprinters here, the 14-COOLANGATTA leads if she jumps well with the other 3YO 13-BEST OF BORDEAUX trying to get across, the 7-ROTHFIRE and 8-THE ASTROLOGIST sitting just behind them and not sure they are going to go that quickly in this.
Runner by runner comments
1-BEHEMOTH is a top liner who seems to be struggling for form this time in. Fitter for the two runs in, but they have only been fair at best and he has always had an issue of being a bit slow away and it seems to be a considerable issue at the moment. Drawn outside here around MV likely to be giving these a pretty big start and although suited at WFA his form doesn’t seem good enough this time in.
2-ELEVEN ELEVEN is a pretty handy Sydney sprinter coming into this 1st up and first up record is 8-0-0-2 which isn’t jumping off the form guide at us. Recent barrier trial winner, but does like to give them a start and that could be an issue switched to Melbourne way of going and around MV at night. Place chance.
3-STREETS OF AVALON is an old favourite of ours and it is hard not to be tempted by the $101 odds on offer for a proven Group 1 performer. For whatever reason his spring form has been quite patchy for a few years now, maybe it’s the hay fever or something? He actually ran on really well for 4th (and just missed 3rd) in this race last year fresh, they didn’t go far into spring this year and have given him some trials to get ready for this. Doesn’t like it wet through, on a dry track probably runs better than his odds suggest but would prefer a better draw so he can jump and run on-speed.
4-THE INFERNO does seem to make a niche of running on well at this track in these sort of races, and was good here two starts back over 1000M and the 1200M here suits better. Great career and distance strike rates, question is how far he drops back here from an outside barrier and if they go quickly enough in front to let him get into the race. Would need luck.
5-PAULELE is in flying form, burst through the pack at Caulfield and really good late here two starts back over 1000M which was just a little too short for him. Great win strike rate and wet track no issue and his camp and burst through racing style is suited to MV sprints. Would want to make good use of the barrier and be up sitting behind the speed, but in clear running to launch into the race and does look hard to beat.
6-SHAQUERO has been struggling for form and looks a query on wet ground in a competitive Group 1 sprint.
7-ROTHFIRE got the perfect trail into the race here to win two starts back when he just sat off the speed and then last start was just about to run into the race on the turn when was pushed back in – bit hard to know how much he had to give, but was a forgive run. Well drawn for a perfect on-speed sit again here and stable knows how to win this race so a genuine winning chance.
8-THE ASTROLOGIST is a tough on-speed horse whose best form is down the Flemington straight but well drawn here to sit on-speed in clear running and good wet track form. Last run was pretty good as suspect the three who beat him home there are well above average. Fitter for the two runs in and looks ready to win, so question really is how he is going to go around MV? Did run 3rd in a Group 1 Goodwood Hcp so is up to this class, and only run here was fair in a Group 1 sprint. Pretty surprised about the $27 on offer here for one that is pretty genuine when he finds form. Chances might come down to how much pressure there is up front, but unless some of the emergencies get in, it doesn’t look too bad. Great rough chance.
9-SEPTEMBER RUN is a sensational Group 1 sprinter when she is in form, and did win a Group 1 here in March when they went far, far too quickly up in front and allowed her to run on late. Drawn out suits as she likes to drop back and run over the top of them, just not sure they are going to go quickly enough for her tonight. The 1000M last start was too short so not impossible she goes better here tonight, but will need the speed on. Rough.
10-BELLA NIPOTINA is about as honest as they come and went around for many years well over the odds and always ran well, but seems to be starting well in the market these days. Wet track is no issue and seems to be racing in career best form, coming out and only just missing here last start behind the (14) over 1000M and had the race won a long way out the start here before. She will need a positive ride from this barrier, would much rather see her outside runners on-speed from a middle barrier, but if the gaps come she is the one to beat in this. One to beat.
11-ROCH’N’HORSE has been racing really well down the straight, question is how he goes around the tight MV bends with a rock band blasting from the stands. Only just run down late two starts back when he looked the winner and loomed into the race nicely last start before a class one whooshed past. Drawn wide but wonder if they can go more forward here? He does seem a straight track horse, but the $27 odds do seem rather generous for a proven Group 1 performer so some rough chance in this.
12-JAMAEA is a Sydney sprinter who hasn’t won for a while and market doesn’t seem too interested in. Wet track may be an issue and nothing much to recommend chances in this.
13-BEST OF BORDEAUX is a Sydney 3YO who likes to lead so will be interesting to see how aggressively they go forward here from the outside barrier. There actually isn’t a huge amount of speed here so they might be able to get across without too much effort. Plenty to like about this one, light weight, goes forward, likely to be in clear running on the turn and proven over the 1200M. Surprised by the $12 on offer, these sprinting 3YOs normally have a lot of hype about them and looks a really strong chance.
14-COOLANGATTA is a classy sprinter who was slightly disappointing 1st up but then jumped and ran and got the advantage of the leader’s track last start here. Jockey did say last start she jumped better than expected and they hadn’t intended to lead, they would probably want the same start again here as hard to win from barrier 1 in the MV feature sprints. Fit and in form, just slight concern was stopping at the end of the 1000M last start with the (10) just failing to run her down and would want to get the right run. Chance, but think there is more value about others.
Summary
These feature sprints are always great betting races and there is a lot of value around here. We really can’t work out why the 8-THE ASTROLOGIST is $27 for, drawn well, will go forward and sit on-speed in clear running, maybe better known as a Flemington horse and might not be able to dictate the speed in this but extremely honest and looks ready to win. The 5-PAULELE has the class and poised to pounce behind the speed, the 7-ROTHFIRE gets a good on-speed it again if good enough and the 10-BELLA NIPOTINA is flying, but just might need some luck to get out at the right time. Very wary of the 13-BEST OF BORDEAUX as well especially if he can get across without too much work early. So trying to sort them out, the 10-BELLA NIPOTINA looks the one to beat with any luck in running, the 13-BEST OF BORDEAUX looks value as the on-speed 3YO and the 8-THE ASTROLOGIST looks a great roughie. Planning to back the 8-THE ASTROLOGIST each way and box up a quinella on these.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 5-IMPERIAL LAD $5 EW
QUINELLA Race 2: 5-IMPERIAL LAD#3-REGARDSMAREE, 6-WINNING PARTNER x $2 = 100%
Really genuine front runner when in form and should be ready to do something now with the two runs in. Was caught wide on speed last start and was a fair effort, small field here and should be able to jump and run to a clear lead and might be hard to run down at around $7. Save on a quinella with the strong finishers the 3-REGARDSMAREE, 6-WINNING PARTNER
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 9-RATTLE AND BANG $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 9-RATTLE AND BANG#4-STYLISH ENUFF, 6-DEMANDO x $2 = 100%
Consistent on-speed sprinter who got crossed last start and had to take a sit and then took a while to get a clear run in the straight before fighting on well, get the impression goes close to winning with a different ride. Good career stats, the end of the 1200M might be the test, but well drawn to go forward and give you a good run here at around $6. Save on quinella with the in-form leader 4-STYLISH ENUFF and the strong finishing 6-DEMANDO.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 5-HE’S THE REAL DEEL $5 EW
We tipped and backed this one last start and he disappointed, but that was on a heavy track so let’s forgive him that run and give him another chance. Start before at Sandown was outstanding, he led and was still in the front about 50M to go on a track where the inside wasn’t the best ground and although he is drawn wide tonight, there are a lot of backmarkers in this race so he should be able to cross without too much pressure at all. Really strong each way chance at around $10 and this is the main bet of the night.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 12-SQUIZZY MIZZY $2.50 EW
These 955M races can get messy as often they go too hard in front, and they are races it is hard to have a confident bet in. This one has excellent career stats, and is in winning form at the bottom of the weights and no issue with being drawn out as at least she will be in clear running. Looks over the odds at $26.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 8-THE ASTROLOGIST $4 EW
Great on-speed sprinter when in form and he looks ready to do something now with the two runs in. If this race was at Flemington he would probably be half these odds, drawn to sit on-speed in clear running and get every chance and he can probably measure up to this at around $31 and looks a great rough chance in the main race.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 1-SILENT SOVEREIGN at around $3.50
Horse we normally back and she is pretty good on her day, but she does seem to face a task here. Does have class over these, but stepping up sharply in distance from 1400m to 2000M 2nd up and a small field means she may drop back off a slow tempo. Prefer to risk tonight.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a Moonee Valley townhouse
QUINELLA: Race 7: 5,7,8,10,13 boxed x $5
Keeping it simple with a box quinella in an open feature race where the 13-BEST OF BORDEAUX and 8-THE ASTROLOGIST both look good value chances from the main dangers 10-BELLA NIPOTINA, 7-ROTHFIRE, 5-PAULELE.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 1,2,3,6,12 / 5,6,7 / 5,7,8,10,13 / 2,8 x $20 = 13.33%
This Quaddie looks gettable tonight, and might pay OK with some even fields. Go wide in the first leg and hope for a roughie to kick us off, comfortable that one of the 5-HE’S THE REAL DEEL, 6-NIGHT PASSAGE, 7-TERRITORY TITAN wins the 2nd leg, wide open in the feature and hope for some value, and the favourite in the last leg the 8-CLAIDHEAMH MOR looks extremely hard to beat, but throw in the 2-AGNELLI as a backup.
Race 1: 4-OCEAN MISS, 2-HUNBOSHI, 7-SHEZADANDI
Race 2: 5-IMPERIAL LAD, 3-REGARDSMAREE, 6-WINNING PARTNER
Race 3: 9-RATTLE AND BANG, 4-STYLISH ENUFF, 6-DEMANDO
Race 4: 10-YOWIE, 5-FIELD OF FLUTES, 6-FISSION
Race 5: 2-DIRECT, 3-TAUNTING, 12-SQUIZZY MIZZY
Race 6: 5-HE’S THE REAL DEEL, 6-NIGHT PASSAGE, 7-TERRITORY TITAN
Race 7: 10-BELLA NIPOTINA, 13-BEST OF BORDEAUX, 8-THE ASTROLOGIST
Race 8: 8-CLAIDHEAMH MOR, 2-AGNELLI, 10-RUNNING CLOUD
