Cold weather heading into the weekend and although this track is a GOOD(4) there are some showers forecast for this evening which could affect the track. MV tends to favour leaders when the rail is OUT 5M, tonight we are OUT 3M so it should be fairly even, and just keep an eye on the racing pattern here, though decent rain would probably seem the coming off the rails in the straight.
This is the FOURTH last meeting at Moonee Valley before the re-development with only the Friday/Saturday of Cox Plate weekend left and one night meeting before the Turnbull Stakes. So get along for one last piece of nostalgia and limited chances left for leaders to make the most of the short MV straight.
Coming off a sensational weekend on the punt last week, but from a punting point of view this looks a pretty skinny meeting with plenty of short-priced favourites likely to win. Will be treading carefully and trying to find some each-way value where we can
For Spring Campaign 2025 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 10-CAPPER THIRTYNINE $4 EW
QUINELLA Race 1: 10-CAPPER THIRTYNINE#1,6,12,14 x $4 = 100%
Omen footy tip heading into the Grand Final weekend, but also a horse we closely follow. Been racing extremely well this time in, but he only just runs out 1400M so the key here is dropping back to the 1200m tonight. Drawn to come across on-speed and settle just behind the leader and pretty keen each way tonight at around $9 in what looks an open race. Back each way and anchor in a value quinella with MV track specialist the 14-FISSION, the strong finishing 12-KIKO and the consistent on-speed 1-HOME RULE.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 5-HARRY GOT STYLES $4 EW
QUINELLA 5-HARRY GOT STYLES, 2-UNFLINCHING, 7-PERLIOUS FIGHTER boxed x $3 = 100%
The 955M races are always tricky races to bet on but looks to be plenty of speed here tonight as is often the case. This one has had to carry 61, 63, 60kgs last few starts and has been competitive and drops in weight tonight. Like the outside barrier draw, he can’t match it with the speed here, but gets clearing running to swoop into the race. Back each way at around $8 and box quinella should pay well in an open race with track specialist the 2-UNFLINCHING and the strong finishing 7-PERLIOUS FIGHTER.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 6-PRESTIGE SNITZEL $4 EW
Another open race here and this one was showing some potential in his first preparation and may go on this campaign. Professional type who can take a position and run into the race and there probably isn’t much between these kicking off the 3YO season sprints. Each way at around $10
QUINELLA: Race 2 5-OLIVEANOTHERDAY, 8-YUUKI, 1-PRESTAR boxed x $3 = 100%
Again just trying to snare a nice quinella on a skinny night, the 5-OLIVEANOTHERDAY looks to have ability and is on the up, the 8-YUUKI is the value runner and done nothing wrong in career to date and the 1-PRESTAR has been running in harder races.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 7-ORNOS $2 WIN $5 PLACE
We are up against the short priced favourite the 1-VINROCK here, who is going to be extremely hard to beat, but sheesh we really like the odds on this one. Placed last two starts here at MV, ran into the race nicely last start and kicked clear but got run down late by one and before that worked home well behind a leader on an on-speed track. Should go forward here and sit handy and have every chance and seems well over the odds at $20 for one that runs out the 1600M and has been in the finish last few races. More the place against a short-priced favourite.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 10-ALBERLOUR $2 EW
Sydney visitor who was tough from a let-up leading and only run down late last start, and good strong on-speed 1600M form before that. A few of these are queries at the mile, and this one looks a clear leader and might be hard to run down (especially if the track ends up favouring those on-speed). Rough at $12
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 13-DAGGERS at around $3.10
Not quite sure what the best distance is for this one, good sprint runs but also been tried up to 1600M. Inside barrier here in a field with plenty of speed and not sure he can go with some of these and might end up in a messy position. Pretty even field and just doesn’t look any value. Risking.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a MV apartment.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 1: 10-CAPPER THIRTYNINE
PLACE Race 2: 8-YUUKI
PLACE Race 4: 7-ORNOS
PLACE Race 7: 9-ALABAMA LASS
Sticking to those who will race on-speed and smaller fields at MV are normally pretty good for these sorts of bets. Looking at around $200 for a $5 outlay
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 5,6,7,8: 3,4,6,9,10,11 / 5,6 / 6,8,9 / 3,5,7,10 x $20 = 13.88%
Looks a really skinny quaddie so you need to be a bit brave here and take on the favourite in the first leg (pays nothing anyway if its wins) and go wide. Hope for a result in the last leg to add some value in.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 7: MANIKATO STAKES GROUP 1 1200M
Only a ten horse field for the feature Group 1 and these feature MV sprints can get very messy when fields sizes are a bit larger, as we saw with multiple unlucky runners in the Moir here a few weeks back. This field size looks just about right for every horse to have its chance. Field seems to be heavy with backmarkers though, the 4-SIR SWAY the most likely leader from the 9-ALABAMA LASS and probably the 1-ROTHFIRE and 5-MAGIC TIME pushing up, but there is plenty of scope for an on-pacer to kick on the turn here.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-ROTHFIRE was one of many unlucky runners here in the Moir two starts back, when back in the pack and couldn’t get a clear run and was crowded when trying to run into the race, but didn’t do much last 50M when clear. Ran 2nd in this race in 2022 on a heavy track. Like the barrier draw here, he can go forward and sit just behind the leaders in clear running and run into the race before the turn. Pretty consistent around this level and plenty of excuses last run so the $17 looks over the odds to us here. Rough chance.
2-BARAQIEL was an outstanding ride to take the gaps here last start and burst clear to win with a pretty impressive turn of foot. Outstanding spring last year when rose through the grades and seems to be back to best after some injury issues. Excellent distance stats and unbeaten in four starts here at MV. Pretty hard to knock chances and beat many of these home last start. Strong chance.
3-PAYLINE is the outsider of the field but wasn’t beaten very far at all last start here against many of these in the Moir, and was hitting the line well. Best form in QLD is on wet tracks and yet to win past 1100M, though he has been competitive over this distance. Query is 1200M at Group 1, especially given racing pattern is to drop well back so is going to be giving some smart ones a head start here. No
4-SIR SWAY is a pretty tough on-pacer when right and has ran some great races in feature sprints over in Adelaide. Drew wide here first up and had to drop back and raced wide all the way and that was a pretty fair effort. Firm track suits, drawn inside to lead, unlikely to be that much pressure here and elevate this one big time if the track shows it is favouring those on-speed. Likely to find one better here, but a pretty decent Top Four chance at $71 for those who like to take value same-race multis. Suspect this one will shorten substantially if the track shows signs of favouring leaders, so maybe be ready to get in early. Rough chance.
5-MAGIC TIME is a super classy mare and strong form through her Cockram win last start. Won 5/9 over the 1200M but always thought she was best over slightly further, she has a great finishing burst, but just not sure about barrier 1 over MV 1200M, reckon she takes a little longer to wind up. Speed unlikely to be on here, and she is going to be back on the rails and needing luck. Really can’t knock her form and don’t let us put you off if you are keen on her, but in an even field if we need to leave one out its probably this one. Risking.
6-LADY SHENANDOAH is the Sydney superstar who was unlucky not to win first-up when just took a little while to get out and into clear running and came hard late. Dominant in her 3YO filly races through last preparation, but stepping up to Group 1 open class now. No reason why she can’t continue to be dominant though. Outside barrier here, but not that fussed, at least she can sit in clear running and make a clean dash at them – main issue is going to be if one up on speed kicks clear early in the straight. Will set up for a pretty exciting race. Hard to beat.
7-CHARM STONE showed a lot of promise early in her career, but seems to have got back to best form now. Coming into this first-up in a pretty smart field and would have preferred she had a run back so we could see how she is travelling this time in. Another one drawn inside who is likely to need luck and prefer to see her run here. No
8-SKYBIRD was under a hold and travelling here in the Moir when couldn’t get clear and probably goes close to winning if she gets out. Was sensational winning the Lightning Stakes first-up last time in, she sailed past as decent field with some ease. Re-invented as a sprinter these days and seems to be working well. Good trial since. She will be giving them a start here, so she will need the speed on and the racing pattern to be suitable, but definite chance regardless. Note the Equicast on which is a major red flag for punters so see what the market does with her. Maybe wait till race time before backing this one so you can see if things are falling into place. Strong chance.
9-ALABAMA LASS is a NZ sprinter who has lined up well over here, strong effort to lead all the way down the straight at first Australian start and was right in the finish here last start in the Moir. She looks to get the run of the race in this, she can jump and sit handy behind the leader and good chance the tempo will be moderate and she will kick clear on the turn here and dare one of the strong finishers to run her down. Her form probably isn’t as good as some of her rivals, but she looks like she may be one on the way up here. Strong chance.
10-AMEENA mixes her form a little, and hard to work out her best distance and conditions. Ran some great races in Adelaide last campaign, and then had some excuses first-up. Market doesn’t seem to have much interest in this one which is surprising. Another who is likely to drop back and need luck and meets a pretty strong field here. Not impossible she runs a race here, but passing for now.
Summary:
The racing pattern and the tempo in this race is going to be critical here. Suspecting there will be no disadvantage to be on-speed and also likely to be a moderate tempo, so it’s hard to go pass the 9-ALABAMA LASS here, she looks to have some upside and just suspect she sits handy here off a moderate speed and gives a kick in the straight so will be up to what can come out and run her down. That will most likely be the 6-LADY SHENANDOAH who needs to deal with first time away from Sydney and may be giving these a start coming to the turn, and the 8-SKYBIRD who given the right run can be anything. Best rough is the 4-SIR SWAY at massive odds and elevate if track is tending towards those on-speed, nice little bet with same race multis to run top four. Looks to be a really good betting race and a pretty exciting race to watch.
Race 1: 10-CAPPER THIRTYNINE, 14-FISSION, 12-KIKO
Race 2: 5-OLIVEANOTHERDAY, 8-YUUKI, 1-PRESTAR
Race 3: 5-HARRY GOT STYLES, 2-UNFLINCHING, 7-PERLIOUS FIGHTER
Race 4: 1-VINROCK, 7-ORNOS, 4-PRESTIGE OLE
Race 5: 6-PRESTIGE SNITZEL, 9-POINT BARROW, 4-VEIN GIRL
Race 6: 6-TREASURETHE MOMENT, 5-PRIDE OF JENNI, 2-ATTRITION
Race 7: 9-ALABAMA LASS, 6-LADY SHENANDOAH, 8-SKYBIRD
Race 8: 7-OH TOO GOOD, 10-ALBERLOUR, 5-ABOUNDING
