Tips, suggested bets and feature race preview for the Manikato Stakes racing at Caulfield 27/09/2026.
No need to replay the drama around the Caulfield track over the last week. Rail goes out 13M today, but the inside is still worn so they will be coming off the rails in the straight, and they are also unlikely to go hard to the outside so that leaves a very narrow section down the middle of the track as the best going. Inside barriers likely to be a disadvantage later in the day for those dropping back in the run and pretty hard to manoeuvre to the best going when the rail is out so far with not much room to work with. Last week it was hard to lead and win later in the day, and coming out to the middle of the track leaves plenty of room for the strong finishers out wide. Race day the track has come up a GOOD(4) which is a surprise and we have a clear sunny day so we might get an improving track.
Once we sort out the racing pattern, this actually looks a pretty good punting program and we have landed with quite a few longshots in our selections, and there are even more at odds with genuine chances in some of these races so we are keen to have a bet today. For Spring Campaign 2026 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
Note that we did the form Saturday morning before landing roughie winners at Mornington ALWAYS ENUFF at $42 and PER SEMPRE at $22 so we might have exhausted our roughie luck for this weekend already.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 3-CALAMARI RING $4 EW
This looks a quite open race and there are plenty of good value chances here in an even field. This one has been a black booker both her last two starts, finishing on strongly late both times, and looks well suited out to 1200M here today on a track which may favour those coming home down the middle of the track. Last start down the straight she just lost touch with the first two home who are classy, but she really extended nicely to the line. Look a good value each way bet at around $14 and there is a nice value box quinella below in the Wonder Bet.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 11-MY GLADIOLA $4 EW
QUINELLA Race 8: 11-MY GLADIOLA#3,5,6,10 x $2 = 50%
Really surprised at the odds on this one, seeing she beat quite a few of these home last start. Proven Group 1 level sprinter and likely to slot into the perfect on-speed position here in a field with a long list of backmarkers. Question mark is the 1200M, but not sure this is going to be a high pressure sprint race and she will get the perfect sit behind the leader here and run into the race at the right time in the straight. Coming off a Group 1 last start win she deserves to be shorter than $16 surely? Each way. Anchor in a quinella as she is likely to be in the finish somewhere with the 3-JIMMYSSTAR back to form today, the 5-BEIWACHT leading, the 10-CHARM STONE suited now the track has come up firm and roughie the 6-GALLANT SON who is going to get good run on speed here and has run well at this level before.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 8-SUNTORA $4 EW
QUINELLA Race 3: 8#1,2,12,13 x $4 = 100%
Well performed mare who normally keeps her form once she finds it and should be ready to win now with the two runs in which have both been promising. Suited out to 2000M and should be suited by the racing pattern here running on strongly down the middle of the track. Each way at around $6 and anchor in a quinella with the 1-ROYAL SUPREMACY who has the class and hopefully settles more forward here, the 2-FUTURE HISTORY who is always tough on-speed, the roughie the 12-AUTUMN MYSTERY who may appreciate a tough slog and a messy track and was good last start, and another roughie the 12-BLONDE STAR coming through the same race.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 10-JACARANDA $2.50 EW
This one has been right in the finish last two starts and she is a very professional filly who will probably go forward here and settle on-speed and get every chance. Fit and in-form and like the weight pull here with the apprentice jockey claim coming in under the minimum. Has raced at higher level than many of these coming off good maiden wins. Rough at around $20 and should be in the finish somewhere.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 12-AUTUMN MYSTERY $2.50 EW
Going to have a second bet in this race on this roughie at around $35. Fitter for the two runs in, suited up in distance to 2000M and did start to work nicely into the race along the rails last start. Likely to drop well back from an outside barrier, but will becoming hard down the outside here and just looks ready to do something today.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 12-MOONLIGHT CIRCUS $2.50 EW
Racing in black type mares class, but there are no stand out mares here and she has shown some ability previously, running third this track and distance last spring. Good run first-up when ran on well along the inside and should have plenty of improvement to come. Blinkers first time too. Strong finisher who will be suited if that is the racing pattern. Rough at $30.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 12-OVER THE BRIDGE at around $2.50
We are always amazed how many horses come off impressive maiden wins to start short priced favourite in town the next start and to be honest the market is usually right. But there are plenty of others with potential here, some of these are proven at a much higher level, and would much rather back some of the double-figure odds runners here than jump on a short priced favourite in a very even field.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a capacity field of Pride of Jenni plushies.
QUINELLA Race 4: 2,3,6,8,9 boxed x $5 = 50%
This looks a really open race with plenty of double figure chances. We have already backed the top pick the 3-CALAMARI RING each way, the 2-CHAYAN has the class and is well in the market, the 9-LADY CATALINA is long odds and has been racing well, the 6-I AM ARIA can jump and go more forward today also at odds and the 8-JADZIA has some untapped ability. Good chance of a value quinella here.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 1,5,8 / 1,2,4,12 / 3,5,6,10,11 / 2,9,13 x $20 = 11.11%
To make this worthwhile, we will need to get a result in the selections early on with a short priced favourite in the last leg who is going to be hard to beat.
Feature Race Preview: Race 8: MANIKATO STAKES 1200M GROUP 1 WFA
The Manikato Stakes is a very different race away from Moonee Valley, but the track conditions today may see a pretty similar racing pattern here - probably don’t want to lead, but want to be in the right position handy and just behind the speed coming to turn to get a clear sprint at them, whilst those who drop back strike trouble and get held up for runs.
Clear leader here is the 5-BEIWACHT but this is a 1200M race, not a 1400M race so he will get a lot more pressure up front than his last race here. The 9-OLIVEANOTHERDAY will settle forward and handy, the 6-GALLANT SON will press forward from a wide barrier and really the next position is the one you probably want to be in and that is up for grabs in a field where most of the rest drop back in the run. Most likely the 10-CHARM STONE or 11-MY GLADIOLA getting a perfect run into the race. The speed should be genuine, but don’t think it will be fast enough to allow a lot of these backmarkers to get into the race.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-GIGA KICK was disappointing first-up against many of these when he was well in the market, but he is probably just not a 1000M sharp sprint horse and finished well back in the pack. Excellent track and distance stats, and he handles both wet and dry ground. Up 200M to 1200M suits. He does seem to prefer a big track and he takes time to wind up and just not sure the track conditions are going to suit today. Proven time and time again at this level, but worried about him getting caught up in a pack racing tightly going to the best ground with the rail out when he needs room and time to wind-up, and that first-up run was pretty disappointing so happy to risk today. Risking.
2-PERICLES is probably a bit under-rated and he looked to have won the feature mile at Flemington last spring before just fading on his run late. Class win first-up here last time in, but that was over 1400M. Handles it wet but never raced over 1200M so interesting for stable to target this race as a Group 1 sprint first-up. Not sure the tempo is going to suit today, but intrigued to see what he can do first-up as he does seem to have a fair bit of versatility. Suspect he probably runs a race and we will want to be on him next start. Passing today though.
3-JIMMYSSTAR was really disappointing first-up here in the Memsie, when he went out favourite, and it’s a bit hard to know where he fits in anymore. Best recent form has all been as a sprinter and excellent wet track and Caulfield form. Does tend to drop back in his runs, but he is pretty good at weaving through packs of horses into the finish – much tricker though if they are racing tight with the rail well out today. Really impressive jump out since last start. Would be interesting to see if they can settle more forward here, if they did he would be right in this. We were going to write him off here, coming off a poor first-up run - until we saw the impressive jump out. Keep safe.
4-ROTHFIRE is a 9YO QLD sprinter who pops down to Melbourne now and again for a feature sprint, and when your home team is playing in the Grand Final, why not? Well held against many of these first-up, but showed he still had what it takes with long shot win over QLD winter. Well drawn and can race handy, but he has struggled in his last few Melbourne campaigns and prefer to leave out today. No
5-BEIWACHT was such a bleeding obvious pick last start in hindsight as the horse primed to go first-up against those with later spring targets, and he was absolutely handed the race with no pressure at all up front. Having said that he is extremely hard to run down when he gets his own way in front like that. That was 1400M though and he has only placed once in four starts at the 1200M distance (but they have often been at the top level and he hasn’t been far away). Give in the ground suits this one and obviously strongly elevate if the track is favouring those on-speed. Definitely likely to be more pressure up front here, and he needs to be clear before the turn so he can get to the best ground in the middle of the track – if something is sitting outside him that will be pretty difficult to do. Super impressive win here last start so need to rate highly, but this is a very different race. Chance.
6-GALLANT SON placed in the Oakleigh Plate and Newmarket Hcp earlier in the year, so proved he was up to the Group 1 sprinter grade. Drawn wide, but he likes to jump and race on-speed and will settle just behind the leader the (5) here. Trial win coming into this was very soft and he was extending away from them on the line. Probably prefers a firmer track which he is going to get now. Probably the best rough chance in this race, proven at Group 1 level, gets a good on-speed run and coming off a good trial and does seem over the odds considering the run he is likely to get. Rough.
7-BEADMAN is a well credentialed Sydney sprinter, whose only run in Melbourne was down the Flemington straight. Really strong to the line over 1000M first-up behind a soft winner. He has tended to drop well back in his runs recently, did race on-speed in his earlier preparations. Drawn wide and around Caulfield likely to be out the back of the field here again, and may face a task off an only even tempo today. Racing well enough to run into the placings though. Place.
8-NAPOLEONIC has been racing well up in Sydney with strong finishes, but he now needs to handle adjusting to a Caulfield track with the rail OUT 13M. Impressive win at MV Cox Plate Day last year and handles a wet track. Keeps running into horses who are better than him but pretty much always running into the finish. Big question mark is where he gets to in the run here, dropping well back around Caulfield on a tricky racing surface. Would watch the market to see what they do with this one and follow in accordingly. Note synthetic hoof filler yuck. First impression is that this race may get away from him today. Passing.
9-OLIVEANOTHERDAY was flying through his campaign and spruiked as the Next Big Thing, and we even fell into that – but that Flemington straight is a very different kettle of fish and brings so many horses undone. Firm track there probably didn’t help either. Back to a circle race here and some give in the track is a big plus. Not unusual to see them bounce back to form off a bad straight run. But the real question now is how he lines up to the top level Group 1 races. Good barrier, and will jump and sit second here behind the leader and get the perfect run today. Without that poor run in between he probably starts closer to favourite in this. Most importantly last start showed he is vulnerable and this race is a step up in class again. Firming track will be against him today as well. Likely to be in the finish, but punting probably only if you can get some decent odds today against the top level sprinters. Chance, with reservations and would prefer to see him against this level.
10-CHARM STONE is pretty much the most difficult horse to catch in Australia. Won this race last year fresh at $31, and not just won, totally thrashed them and never looked like losing. Fourth in a William Reid and third in a Sangster at Group 1 since then, both times not beaten far at all. Group 1 feature race record is outstanding. Best form is fresh and on dry tracks. Raced extremely sparingly and only had four starts in the last year. Drawn wide, but normally settles handy and most importantly she can go forward from a wide barrier here and get into the perfect position in the run. On a dry track or a track the better side of SOFT she would be a good rough chance, not so sure about on a track worse side of soft. Rough.
11-MY GLADIOLA got her Group 1 on the board last start after racing consistently at the top level for so long. Perfect ride too, sitting just behind the speed and nabbing the leader just on the line. Handles it wet, proven at the top level, might need to go forward here from an outside barrier to take up a handy position, she needs a ride like last time, sitting handy and ready to pounce. Probably had the class edge last time. Hasn’t won over 1200M, two placings from five starts, but they have normally been at the top level. As a last start Group 1 winner the double figure odds on offer seem rather generous. Chance.
12-GEEGEES MISTRUTH has drawn barrier 1 which may be an issue coming to the end of the day and there isn’t much track available for those drawn inside to steer towards the middle and the best going. Loomed up really nicely first-up and wasn’t far off the finish at all, and she trialled really impressively before that. Extra distance will suit and wet ground no problem. Would rate her a really strong rough chance in this if it wasn’t for that pesky barrier one and the rail OUT 13M – she can be slowly away and may get buried back in the field on the turn here with few options. Rough.
13-EXTRAGALACTIC has got a stack of ability and somehow missed that Group 1 photo over in Adelaide mid-year. Better on top of the ground and trainer has openly stated she doesn’t handle wet tracks, but she ran pretty well first-up at Sandown. They looked too sharp for her over 1000M last start but she would have been right in the finish if they went another 50M. Jockey McDonald on board might be able to weave some magic from an inside barrier on a drop back horse – the chute start at Sandown last start meant they came to the middle of the track and she was in touch with them, around the turn here she is likely to be well back in the field and looking for runs. On a Caulfield dry track with rail TRUE she would probably rate on top and be a great bet, she has the talent to win this but may just need a lot of luck and a magical ride. Elevate chances now track has come up dry. Chance.
Summary:
Pretty even race here and seems to be plenty of winning chances but the racing pattern and the tempo in this race is going to be the deciding factor. Really surprised about the double figure odds here for the 11-MY GLADIOLA, she has beaten many of these last start, fitness improvement to come and she is likely to get the perfect run just behind the speed here so she goes on top. Wary of the 3-JIMMYSSTAR as the main danger, will need a more forward ride though, think if he drops out the back of the field he is no chance. No reason why the 5-BEIWACHT can’t win again, though would want to see the track favouring those on-speed. Keep the hard to catch 10-CHARM STONE safe, and the best rough is the 6-GALLANT SON. We can back the top two picks straight out and save on a quinella with some roughies getting good runs here. Wary of the 13-EXTRAGALACTIC now the track has come up firm.
Race 1: 6-BARGHEST, 10-JACARANDA, 5-TALES OF TIME
Race 2: 4-PRETTY BABY, 10-REGAL AMBITION, 6-BY CHOICE
Race 3: 8-SUNTORA, 2-FUTURE HISTORY, 12-AUTUMN MYSTERY
Race 4: 3-CALAMARI RING, 2-CHAYAN, 9-LADY CATALINA
Race 5: 5-PRIDE OF JENNI, 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE, 4-ZAMBARDO
Race 6: 5-SOMETHINGS BURNIN’, 1-DIAMETER, 8-BOYS BOUNCE
Race 7: 2-TOO DARN DISCREET, 4-SEA WHAT I SEE, 12-MOONLIGHT CIRCUS
Race 8: 11-MY GLADIOLA, 3-JIMMYSSTAR, 5-BEIWACHT
Race 9: 13-BUCCLEUCH, 9-HARRY’S YACHT, 2-ATHANATOS
