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| FLEMINGTON : MELBOURNE CUP - 3rd Nov 2009 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 2M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Great day’s racing on Saturday when the track played fairly, though most of the winners came off the rails just a little. Normally the rail stays in the same position for Cup Day as Derby Day, but last two years they have moved it from TRUE to OUT 2M. When the rail stayed in the same position normally the track would start to wear and you would definitely want to be on runners on by the end of the Cup day. Last year on Cup Day the track probably just tended towards on pacers so might do so again today, but will almost certainly get even racing and every horse should have it’s chance. Down the straight on Sat there was little between the inside and outside, but almost certainly they will come down the outside rail for the rest of the week, so box up those outside barriers and sit back and enjoy. There is a little bit of rain around which will take the edge off this track – although pretty much every major meeting so far this spring the track has firmed up appreciably during the day. Those drainage systems are pretty damm impressive these days, wish we had them for next time we flood the laundry at home. So in summary, perfect track, even racing, just need to find some winners. Has to be said Cup Day is a seriously bad day to have a bet. Big fields, lots of different form lines, B and C grade horses. Pretty much every horse from Adelaide seems to have come over. Big dividends all around. So don’t take it too seriously. Back some 20-1 shots. Take some fun trifectas and first fours, throw in silly outsiders and try and grab a share of some $10,000 dividends – sure to be plenty around. And good luck in the quaddie which looks nigh on impossible – especially the last leg. Spread it around in lots of small bets. RESULTS : Bloody tough day on the punt, but often is on Melbourne Cup Day as we pointed out in the preview. Really a bad idea to going backing favourites on Cup Day - always seems to be lots of $10, $20 and $50 winners in big fields. Today we had three very short priced favourites go down - THINK MONEY W=$3.10, ORTENSIA W=$1.90 and DEFINITELY READY W=$1.60. Track definitely favouring those running on late, there was a strong head wind and the leaders although often looking promising half way down the straight always got swamped by those closing out wide. Despite being a incredibly tough day for punters we managed to find a few winners towards the end of the day for some much need get outs. BEST EACH WAY : Race 2: 8-BUBBLE BELOW $5 EW Lightly raced and never far away in the finish. Coming along well this time in, fitter for the 3 runs in which have all been good and was making good ground last start. Blinkers go on – just needs to maybe go a little more forward then normal from an outside barrier. BEST EACH WAY : Race 9: 7-AHDASHIM $5 EW 1st W=$6.60, P=$2.40 = 9 x $5 = $45 Pretty ordinary field in the sprint and this one has been going around in much better races in Sydney and still gets no weight here. Leader pinched the race last start on a track that was favouring on pacers, but this one finished on very well. Drawn middle barrier gives plenty of options down the straight and just going better than most of these. Keen to bet each way. RESULTS : Bit surprised how much this drifeted in betting, much better odds were available on BETFAIR (around $7.4). Only just got there on the line, but nice get out bet towards the end of the day. QUINELLA : Race 6: 3,4,8 boxed x $5 = $15 These 3 stick out as the main chances in Race 6. The 4-SO ANYWAY has run on really well last 2 starts and is really well weighted into this. The 3-KANZAN stuck on well last start behind a good one, winkers first time and looks to be on the improve. The value runner is the on pacer the 8-STARRY EYED who has done nothing wrong this time in and always have to respect on pacers over Flem 1400M. These 3 should fight out the finish. RESULTS : These 3 are looking good around 200M out but get swamped. BEST ROUGH : Race 3: 16-CHEDDINGTON $2.50 EW This one has been carrying big weights around on the provincials and has been going OK. Has an OK win/place strike rate for a stayer. Drawn perfect barrier, no weight in form lots to recommend it in an average staying field. Jockey has plum ride in Melbourne Cup and you can just see him winning a warm up event on the way through. RESULTS : Does nothing. Another bolter wins this race though BEST ROUGH : Race 7: 18-BASALTICO $2.50 EW Tradition dictates we need to have something on the best roughie in the Melbourne Cup. Very few winning chances this year, and once we get to the rest of the field they all have multiple convictions. Best to look to something fresh on the scene, overseas stayer who didn’t have much luck when working home nicely in the Geelong Cup. Drawn to sit on the speed, will make its own luck and likely to grind on pretty well. RESULTS : Does nothing. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 9 : 1-HERE DE ANGELS under $4.00 2nd W=$4.20 Very impressive winner last start and new stable does seem to have got him back to his best form. Did carry big weight, but dictated race in the lead on a track that was favouring on pacers. Best form is on dry tracks so query if much rain comes. Has been tried over further than 1200M, but doesn’t run out longer distances. Think the 1200M down the straight just about finds him as well – he has run in some much harder races and hasn’t been far off, but just think he is better around the bend. Is in form and against an ordinary field, but has to give 7kgs to most of them and something probably comes out at odds and runs a blinder. RESULTS : Bit of a nail biting finish and had to rely on the bob of the head in a photo finish. This guy is in great form, just isn't at his best over the Flem 1200M - looked home about 100M out but got swamped on the line. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more. QUINELLA : Race 9: 7-AHDASHIM # 3 (scr),8,9,12,15 x $1 = $5 SCR $1, 7-AHDASHIM 1st W=$6.60, 3rd 12-ALL CHEVAL W=$24.70 Let’s stick to the races down the straight where we got the nice quinella on Sat. 7-AHDASHIM looks a stand out to us, should be in the finish, take some quinellas with some value runners especially those drawn out wide as outside rail should be fastest. RESULTS : Only missed a pretty nice collect here by a nostril, nothing between 3 of them in a tight photo finish. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $46 NET : $-4 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO. BETTING IS NOT COMPULSORY Race 2: 8-BUBBLE BELOW, 12-MIDNIGHT WINE, 10-LARA’S GILTTER Race 3: 16-CHEDDINGTON, 9-THINK MONEY, 14-JERVOIS Race 4: 2-ORTENSIA, 8-ROSE SYRAH, 13-TOOTSIE Race 5: 4-DEFINITELY READY, 5-YOU DEE CEE, 3-BROKEN Race 6: 4-SO ANYWAY, 8-STARRY EYED, 3-KANZAN Race 7: 1-VIEWED, 21-SHOCKING, 11-ALCOPOP Race 8: 8-SOUND OF NATURE, 13-VALIDATOR, 9-STOKEHOUSE Race 9: 7-AHDASHIM, 3-DIAMONDS AT DUSK, 9-DANZYLUM Race 10: 16-FLYING TESSIE, 7-GOGOCANNY, 17-TESTA ROCKETA (emerg), 14-ROYAL STRIKER |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-BUBBLE BELOW 12-MIDNIGHT WINE 10-LARA’S GILTTER |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 16-CHEDDINGTON 9-THINK MONEY 14-JERVOIS |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-ORTENSIA 2nd W=$1.90 8-ROSE SYRAH 3rd W=$11.20 13-TOOTSIE |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-DEFINITELY READY 5-YOU DEE CEE 3-BROKEN 3rd W=$5.30 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-SO ANYWAY 8-STARRY EYED 3-KANZAN |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-VIEWED 21-SHOCKING 1st W=$9.90 11-ALCOPOP |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-SOUND OF NATURE 3rd W=$3.20 13-VALIDATOR 9-STOKEHOUSE |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-AHDASHIM 1st W=$6.60 *** best each way bet of day *** 3-DIAMONDS AT DUSK SCR 9-DANZYLUM |
| RACE 10: RESULTS |
| Tips: 16-FLYING TESSIE 1st W=$12.40 *** nice get out in last *** 7-GOGOCANNY 14-ROYAL STRIKER |
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| RACE 7: THE MELBOURNE CUP 3200MM GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 1-VIEWED 21-SHOCKING 1st W=$9.90 11-ALCOPOP |
| Others: 18,7 Pace: SOLID Leaders : 8-CRIME SCENE, 10-ZAVITE, 15-WARRINGAH (wide), 16-GALLIONS REACH Handy : 1-VIEWED, 3-FIUMICINO (wide), 6-ROMAN EMPEROR, 9-MUNSEF, 11-ALCOPOP, 18-BASALTICO Back : 2-C'EST LA GUERRE, 4-MASTER O'REILLY, 5-MOURILYAN, 7-ISTA KAREEM, 12-HARRIS TWEED, 14-NEWPORT, 17-SPIN AROUND, 19-CAPECOVER, 20-DAFFODIL, 22-ALLEZ WONDER, 23-CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD, 24-LEICA DING Chances: 1-VIEWED is last year’s Cup winner who has gone on with it. Was probably under rated even after last year’s win, but continued with good form during the Sydney autumn and form this spring has been much better than last year. Last year he had an interrupted lead up when was SCR at the barrier for the Yalumba and missed the run before the Caulfield Cup, in the Caulfield Cup he ran on pretty well and didn’t have much luck, in the Mackinnon he did very little – and then came out and won the Melbourne Cup. This year he has ran on well in every race, won the Caulfield Cup, placed in the Mackinnon – he is going much, much better than last year when he won the race. From a Melbourne Cup point of view you want horses that can run the 3200M (tick), Caulfield Cup lead up form (tick), Mackinnon form (tick). Ticks and elephant stamps all over this one. Go to the head of the class. Won from barrier 8 last year, has barrier 9 this year should get a perfect run here. He is a solid genuine stayer, he was suited last year when the 3 internationals set a ludicrous speed in front, he could just sit and bide his time from the nice barrier. Probably even better on tracks with some give if the rain comes. Question marks ? Probably the top weight 58kgs – carried 57 kgs to win the Caulfield Cup but did get a dream rails run, carried 53 kgs to win this race last year. Only one horse has carried over 57 kgs to win this race in the last 30 years. Just one word of warning though, jockey did report on Sat in the Mackinnon that he had been galloped and had some concerns that he had got a pretty serious whack, ended up some cuts and lacerations – they were minor, but he is backing up 3 days later and horses are such bloody temperamental things even the tiniest injury can cause problems. Genuine stayer, in form, wouldn’t have thought after last year’s win we would be talking about a horse that could go Melbourne Cup – Caulfield Cup – Melbourne Cup and really stand out as a champion stayer. Strong chance. 7-ISTA KAREEM is one we have a bit of time for and he has been coming along really well this spring before last start flop. Was finishing on very well at two Caulfield runs, came home nicely with big, big weight here 2 starts back and normally hits best form once he has a few runs in and gets to the 2500M. Then did absolutely nothing in MV Cup, tried to make very wide run about 600M out, but the leader dominated that race. He did have to carry weight again, and was reported he jarred up on a very firm track so maybe we can forgive that run ?. Better with some give in the ground. Drops nicely in weight into this. 3200M winner in Sydney Cup this year and Adel Cup place getter in 2006. He is a honest stayer when he strikes form and he really hasn’t found a suitable race yet this time in – has been lumping some pretty big weights in his lead up runs. Drawn barrier 23 probably drops out to last which is his normal racing pattern anyway, will be ridden quietly. Suspect he is going to run on OK here and think he is the a rough chance at long odds. Value runner for trifectas and first fours. Rough 11-ALCOPOP is the great Aussie battler story which will be replayed ad nauseum with accompanying ocka voice over during the cup day coverage. 10 starts, 7 wins, he is meeting every challenge he is set and stepping up and winning in style. Has a class horse turn of foot which is what you want for this race. Pretty rare to have a horse coming into a Melbourne Cup with a 1111 form line. Last start winners normally go pretty well in this race, so how well do those with 4 wins in a row go ? Famously trainer forgot enter him for the Caulfield Cup. Oops. Kicked with dashing turn of foot in both runs in Melbourne and won like a good horse. Drawn an OK barrier and probably races not far from the speed here. Form from his wins was strengthened when the (21) won impressively on Sat. 1st try at the 3200M is the query, but seems to have the class turn of foot that is required to win this. Very unusual preparation, only the 4 runs in, had 4 weeks off going into this race, normally at least the horses have run one week later in the Caulfield Cup. Win in the Hebert Power was 1st try past 2000M, so he is flying but normally cup winners are more proven stayers. So much dead weight in this field, he is in winning form and on the up, 1st try at this race – plenty to like about him. The 4 weeks between runs just a little concern though and might start under the odds on the tote. Will he have the same turn of foot at the end of tough slogging 3200M ? Last win was off a pretty strong pace so should be OK. Strong chance. 18-BASALTICO is the international runner from the Cumani stable and they seem to know what is required for this race. Local jockey on board and nice barrier. Run in the Geelong Cup wasn’t as bad as it looks, he was slowly away, tailed the field and did make quite good ground weaving through the field. That was a very solidly run race so think he is going to be strong at the end of the 3200M. Normally races much closer to the speed and should sit behind the pace here and drawn out means will get out and get running in the straight. Geelong Cup form has been a good Melbourne Cup reference last couple of years, but it has been the impressive winners that have gone on with form, not sure an unlucky 7th is really going to cut it. Concerned also that stable/rider combination means he starts under the odds – though the $41 currently on offer looks pretty tempting. Think he is by far the best rough chance in this race, there are very few winning chances, most have multiple convictions against their name, he is a new form line, likely to get a perfect run from barrier and likely to stay a strong 3200M. Represents the unknown in this. Excellent rough chance. 21-SHOCKING has been coming along nicely and seems to have hit peak just in time for this. Always had a stack of potential, big, loping type who needs big tracks and distance – hello – how about a 3200M race at Flem? Sounds good to me. Failed to flatter at 1st few runs this time in, but they were over shorter trips, and definitely not suited around MV. Last 3 runs before Sat were all very similar, something grabbed a kick on him around the home turn, but once he balanced out in the straight he stuck on well - just they had grabbed too big a lead. Impressive winner here on Sat and you need to respect last start winners going into this race. Especially those coming off impressive last start wins – he really ran away from them here on Sat. Barrier is a worry, he is going to have to drop well back here. Drawn a barrier would rate him on top. Even though the (11) has beaten him home at their last two meetings wouldn’t be surprised if he turns the table today – both times it has pinched a break on him and he has stuck on well – this one just takes a little longer to balance and wind up. At Flem, over longer distance and with an extra run think he can turn the tables on the (11) today. No weight, solid staying type, loves Flem and distance, in winning form, in impressive winning form – plenty to like and strong winning chance in this. Main worry is don’t want him too far back on the home turn – is close to impossible to win Melbourne Cups coming from last. Strong chance. 1st W=$9.90 Place: 3-FIUMICINO is an honest Sydney stayer who loomed at the top of the straight in the Caulfield Cup and stuck on OK for a decent 5th placing. Was ridden forward that day from wide barrier and has drawn a wide barrier here again today so probably does the same thing. Coming off Metropolitan and Caulfield Cup 2400M runs so should be hard and fit for a tough slogging 3200M. Only previous try at the distance was just fair in this year’s Sydney Cup. Probably has to work early here to go forward, or will get caught wide. On pacers can stick on OK it is hard to make ground at the end of a tough 3200M through a big field. Would need everything to go right to even be a place chance though. Rough place chance at best. 4-MASTER O'REILLY has been doing enough to keep us interested all spring – but is he just a tease ? He hasn’t won a race now since his 2007 Caulfield Cup win – that’s 17 starts ago now. Few questions over that Caulfield Cup win when he had no weight, got a dream run on the inside around the home turn and was against a weakened field with several scratchings at the barrier. He has ran OK at several starts since though at WFA, normally at Flem, and normally with late flashing finishing runs. Had a crack at this race in 2007 when started favourite ran a well beaten 8th, but did make good ground. Last year he actually ran on really well to get 4th. He went into this race with a fairly light preparation last year with just the 4 runs in – this year he has had 5 runs in. He has been going along OK this spring, flashed home 1st up, worked home well on rails 2nd up in the Underwood, went wide and early in small field in the Yalumba and stuck on OK. Dropped out last on the home turn in the Caulfield Cup and finished on really well to finish 6th. Jockey said he just wasn’t handling the turns and would be much better off at Flem. Worked home nicely again here on Sat in the Mackinnon. Guess he is going along OK. From outside barrier he will need to drop back and think it is so hard to come from well back in Melbourne Cups. Concern is he has had two tries at this race already and not been good enough and those who win it are invariably having their 1st try at the race. His run in the Caulfield Cup this year was pretty much identical to last year, and he couldn’t win it last year. Can see him dropping back and running on, but only a place chance at best again. Place. 4th W=$12.70 6-ROMAN EMPEROR is one of Bart’s who is going along pretty well. Caulfield Cup place getter which is always the best form line for this race. No weight penalty – but the winner the (1) only got 1 kg anyway, so he is meeting him only 1 kg better for a 2.25 L defeat. Did get perfect run in the Caulfield Cup, was held up for a little while around the home turn, but had every chance once got clear. Drawn out but he can go forward and will probably settle in a nice position here behind the speed. Probably wants just a little give in the ground – bit of a query actually on a genuinely firm track. Seems to be perfectly set for this race and everything is going right. AJC Derby winner and they actually don’t have the best record in this race. In Turnbull Stakes felt he had the perfect run and didn’t do much, but maybe he is just a little one paced and needs the extra distance. The 4YOs who have won this race over the last 20 years have all been something special, seems to be a race that older horses tend to win – and not sure he is an outstanding one. He is going to get a pretty good run here, think he will be there when they hit the turn, just got a sneaking feeling he is going to find one or two better, but have to respect form and stable so winning chance. Chance, but prefer place. 13-KIBBUTZ is a VRC Derby winner who has struggled for form since. 3YO Derby win was a solid staying performance and he looked like a stayer of the future, but has struggled for form and with injury since then. Transferred down to the beach and new trainer this time in for some R+R and long romantic walks on the beach. Trainer has taken him along very slowly and maybe he is just starting to turn it around? Maybe? Like that he has had the 5 runs in, plenty of kms in his legs, slowly getting ready for the 3200M today. Loomed up in the MV Cup and stuck on OK – wasn’t a bad run actually. Not sure how strong the form is from that race, but did carry big weight there and drops nicely in weight to this. Drawn a nice barrier, can stay, likes Flem, if he gets back to something like his best form he is a nice rough place chance in this. 1st time in 2 years we have given him any sort of chance so must be looking good. Rough place. 16-GALLIONS REACH is a NZ visitor who was paid up for despite under performance and meant a more fancied local horse missed a Melbourne Cup party invite. Big weight and raced handy in the Bendigo Cup, ridden aggressively for home around the turn and did kick clear, but was tiring badly on the line. Didn’t show much in Geelong Cup before that and form before that in NZ was Last-Last-Last which sounds suspiciously like a few horses we have owned. Has run 2nd over this trip in the Auckland Cup. Does get a nice weight drop, drawn a nice barrier, will get perfect sit behind the speed here on pace. Actually think the forward showing last start was sign he is just about to run into some form. No chance of winning, but just thinking fluker’s hope for a 200-1 trifecta/first four chance. Roughest of roughy, rough place. 20-DAFFODIL is a 4YO mare from NZ who went OK in the Caulfield Cup. Like the way she ground away in that race, kept her neck down and they didn’t really run away from her on the line. Should still have some improvement out of that run. AJC Oaks winner earlier in the year. Drawn a shocking barrier here and probably has to drop well back in this. Pretty sure the jockey jumped off last start and said she was still a bit “new” (still had that new car smell?), which makes you wonder if she will run out the 3200M today. She usually isn’t very far away in her races though, Caulfield Cup run was OK so solid place chance in this. 24-LEICA DING is a very solid staying type who has been going along pretty well this time in. Flashed up in 1st few runs this time in, then started silly, silly odds in two runs at MV when was very one paced and never going to be suited on tight turning track. Thumbed nose at punters when having gone down previous 2 starts at MV at even money, she comes out at $13 and won the Geelong Cup. Oops, sorry about that. Geelong Cup win was very solid staying performance, they set a very fast pace in that race and it was a hard slog to the line and she outstayed them. No weight, inside barrier and she can probably work home nicely along the inside when the field spreads on the home turn. MV 3000M winner if that means anything ? Those races are dead set shockers. Lightly raced and good win strike rate, in winning form going into this . Probably not good enough to win this, but very solid place chance. Place Sacking: 2-C'EST LA GUERRE is one we hate with a passion cause think he is just a pretender. Had huge wraps on him last spring when he just ran perpetual “good Melbourne Cup” trials every start without really getting into the finish – he would loom up threatingly, but not really challenge Having said that he then finished Spring 2008 with a huge run in the Melbourne Cup, coming from well back which is really hard to do and running on into the placings. This time in his 1st up run was pretty good when he loomed like he was going to run into it, but died on his run, 2nd up in the Underwood he was ridden against normal pattern and went forward and was disappointing, but then did very little in the Turnbull. Showed little in the Caulfield Cup, but did pull up with a back injury. Would have preferred to see him again since that run cause you don’t really know how he is going and if he is over that injury when placed under pressure. Usually have to respect Melbourne Cup place getters in subsequent years, but don’t think he is going as well this time in. Drawn nice barrier, as he did last year. Might need a seriously wet track to produce his best. Just don’t think his form is good enough. No 5-MOURILYAN is one of the much hyped internationals (by the media) and much detested by the punter (who couldn’t give a hoot about the internationals) . Owned by controversial President of Chechnya who is accused of human rights violations which adds new meaning to the term “Colourful Racing Identity”. We don’t normally bother with the internationals unless we have seen them race here and can line them up, the only ones that normally run OK are those at gigantic odds. They normally need to have had everything go right in their preparation – can’t remember reading any setbacks for this one. Does have winning form going into this race which is a plus. South African trained, very well travelled – Dubai, Ireland, Singapore, England , Hong Kong and now Australia. Probably has a mare in every port the big international stud muffin that he is. Guess he knows how to travel so trip to Australia probably not that big a deal. Placed 2 from 2 over 3200M so probably sticks on OK. Watch the market, find it impossible to sort out these internationals so usually prefer just to leave them out anyway. Bet on something you actually know something about. No 3rd W=$26.80 8-CRIME SCENE is an international runner from the might powerful dominant all conquering Godolphin stable ( normally it’s just the “powerful” Godolphin stable, but thought we would throw in some more additional superlatives). Not a fan of the internationals, all the punters now know the golden rule – if they haven’t run in Australia don’t back them. If they have run in Australia, at least you know how they are going and can have an informed bet. Ran in the Geelong Cup, the tempo in that race was pretty furious, presented on home turn but just slogged to the line like the rest of them. Does drop in weight from that run. He probably goes forward here – can race handy and has OK barrier so probably sits outside the leader. Those from the Geelong Cup didn’t do much in the 2500M race on Sat so have to query if the form is any good. So having seen this international run in AUS still don’t want to back it. No 2nd W=$39.10 9-MUNSEF is another international who has kept a very low profile since coming over here. Drawn a nice barrier and can race forward so is probably going to get a pretty nice run in this race. Got better things to do than follow the Sweedish form so can’t really tell you much about this one. However, is going to start long odds, no namer, drawn a nice barrier, races on pace and probably sticks on so if you want to throw one international in for trifectas and first fours this is probably the one. We don’t touch the internationals though unless they have run here. No 10-ZAVITE is a tough on pace stayer who is hard to run down when he gets his own way in front on firm tracks. Definitely needs a firm track. Seems to thrive on hard racing too. Drawn barrier 3 and is the leader so should ensure a genuine tempo. Won the Adel Cup over 3200M this year. He has had the 5 runs in and hasn’t really shown much this time in – he does tend to take time to find form and usually keeps it when he does, but not quite sure how he is going. Was a bit of pressure up front in the Herbert Power and he did finish 4th, but he was well beaten by two who are going around here. Does meet them better at weights, but probably not enough to turn around the margin. Didn’t really show much fight in the Caulfield Cup. Close to impossible to lead all the way in Melbourne Cups anyway even if he was at his peak, which he doesn’t seem to be. Passing. 12-HARRIS TWEED is an AJC Derby place getter who really hasn’t shown any form this time in. 4 runs in, started long odds in the Caulfield Cup and didn’t do much. Lightly raced. Drawn out and probably has to drop well back here. No form. No 14-NEWPORT is a Sydney stayer who can be hard to follow and if you are really, really lucky might throw the jockey after the start just for his own amusement. 5 runs this time in and seems to be slowly finding form at the right time – ran home OK in the Coogny and then was an eye catching finish in the Mackinnon on Sat and you always need to respect good runs in that race into the Cup. Flopped in the Sydney Cup this year, but that was on a wet track which probably didn’t suit. Did have a crack at this race last year when ran on OK, but still finished a well beaten 10th. Drawn out will have to drop back. Might run on OK, but has had a chance at this race before so prefer to give others a crack. Probably a place chance off Mackinnon run, but would need everything to go right from barrier and preferring to risk today. No 15-WARRINGAH is one of the new breed of international runners – local trainers buying OS stayers to run in the Cup. Or as we like to say, “Here is one we prepared earlier”. Local trainer has been in close communication with previous trainer who is a Sir so has to be respected. Drawn out, but goes forward so he is probably going to ensure a pretty genuine tempo here as he is going to roll forward and run them along. Impossible to line up of course. Prefer to let run. 17-SPIN AROUND is a 9YO NZ visitor who has won an Auckland Cup over this trip. Drawn OK, will drop back, but can get through on the rails when the field spreads in the home turn. Coming off a 12th in the Seymour Cup and a 10th in the Geelong Cup is hardly inspiring and is going into this race extremely light on with only the 2 starts this time in. Having said that did win the Auckland Cup 3rd up in March. Not on form. No. 19-CAPECOVER is a capable stayer on his day and ran well last spring when should have won the SAAB/LEXUS/whatever it is called last year, but made amends the week after in the Queen Elizabeth. Has had two goes at the 3200M for nothing and has started well in the market both times so probably a little query at the extra trip. Has had a long hard preparation which can be good for tough slogging Melbourne Cups. Actually worked home quite well in the Naturalism, and looked ready to win, then shocking ride from jockey at MV over 2500M when was at tail of field all the way, came home well from last, but far too late with big weight and definitely should have won. Didn’t do anything at all in Herbert Power though and was well beaten by some of these, and had every chance in the Bendigo Cup when just finished on OK. Been very disappointed with last two runs and happy to leave out today. 22-ALLEZ WONDER is another one of Bart’s. 4YO M with no weight. Ran OK in the VRC Oaks, but wasn’t really that competitive as a 3YOF over the staying trips. Won the Toorak Hcp after getting perfect run on the speed and poking through at the right time – really think she was pretty lucky to win that race. Then got perfect sit behind the speed in the Caulfield Cup and was going backwards from the top of the straight. Jockey has said she was ridden too forward against normal pattern and that’s why she didn’t finish it off, but think simply she didn’t run out the distance – had perfect run – did nothing. Needs a dry track. Doubt she will run the 3200M and form is not good enough. No 23-CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD is another of the OS stayers bought by local trainers at crazy, crazy prices. Here is one we prepared earlier. Only the 7 starts, very lightly raced, 2 starts ago was very nice run weaving through the field. No weight, inside barrier, probably has to be respected. Total unknown quantity though, not only 1st start in AUS, 1st time jockey has been on board in a race, 1st time trainer has put him in a race – total, total unknown. New meaning to the term Mystery Bet. Did have set backs with foot abscess and there was some doubt all along whether he was being aimed at this year or next year. Looks like they are having a free fling at this year, but you would think he would be much better next year with a full season in AUS and trainer actually getting a bit more time to get to know him. No. Summary: Yet again we seem to have ended up with a Melbourne Cup that is very bottom heavy – lots of horses with no chance what so ever - that’s what happens when you offer prize money down to 10th !. Everyone wants to have a try. The key factors when finding a cup winner are the horse’s name and the colours and the barrier and no, wait, we have been watching too much of the Cup week telecast. The form lines to look for in the Cup are : - Caulfield Cup form – always the strongest form for this race - 1st try at this race unless a previous winner – very rare that a horse that has failed before can come out and win it in later years. Winners just about always having their first crack at the race. - winning form – so often the horse that wins this race is on an upward spiral and is in winning form. Tough competitive field and you really need to be at the top of your game. Very few last start winners this year. We are strongly opposed to the concept of “good Melbourne Cup trials”. These are the horses that will tease and flash home all spring in the lead up runs for 3rd and 4th and everyone says “oh won’t he be suited over 2 miles on the 1st Tuesday in November?” . Yes he will - and he will do the same thing again and run on for about 5th. To win the cup – you need to be in winning form, or at least seriously getting into the finish, not running on for a well beaten placing. There is always a nice trifecta or first four in the Cup with some silly thing at long odds running into the placings. The ones to watch out for are those with plenty of kms in their legs in preparation this time in, who have a good barrier and won’t drop too far back. It is seriously hard to win a Melbourne Cup coming from back in the field, they spread wide on the turn, there are tired horses everywhere, and it is hard to make ground at the end of 3200M. As far as the internationals go, not a fan of backing them – mainly cause don’t like betting on unknowns. The most spruiked, most ferocious one normally finishes tailed off. Those that run well are normally the no namers, at odds, that race up on the speed, in space and keep on rolling. Definite pattern though is to follow those who have had a run over here. If they come out and have a run, you can see their form, you know they have settled and can line them up against the locals. Interesting that it has tended to be the older horses that have won this race over the last 20 years. The 4YOs who have won it in that time have usually done something special in their lead up (EFFICIENT – stunning 3YO VRC Derby win, ETHEREAL – won Caulfield Cup, MIGHT AND POWER – smashed them in Caulfield Cup, SAINTLY – won Cox Plate, LET’S ELOPE – won Caulfield Cup). Just wonder if it is a race for older horses and you need a really outstanding 4YO to win the race ? This year looks like we will have a pretty genuine tempo – 8-CRIME SCENE, 10-ZAVITE, 15-WARRINGAH (wide) all go forward and can lead and they should string them along nicely. Getting a nice sit behind them is 16-GALLIONS REACH, 3-FIUMICINO (wide), 6-ROMAN EMPEROR, 18-BASALTICO. Think they will run along at a pretty genuine speed though, one AUS leader who normally goes fast and the two internationals who normally run along. Have to rate 1-VIEWED on top, just has all the right form, Melbourne Cup form, Caulfield Cup form, Mackinnon form, winning form. Drawn a nice barrier and should get pretty much identical run as last year, only worry is did cop a bit of a knock on the weekend in the Turnbull. Solid stayer who should just outlast these. Main danger is the up and coming 21-SHOCKING, no weight, winning form, loves the big tracks and distance. Worry with him is how far he is going to drop back in the run from outside barrier – would really like to see him sitting mid field. 11-ALCOPOP on the upwards spiral and untapped has to be respected, not sure he is going to start value though – will he still be as strong at the end of 3200M? All last start winners, and the three very boring and very obvious selections. The smokey in the field is the 18-BASALTICO though, was unlucky at Geelong, going to sit right behind the speed here and suspect he stays all day. Think the $41 on offer is nice odds at the moment – have something each way on that. Everyone is going to get very focussed on the 3-4 winning chances, going to be good odds about the rest of the field, most of which are utterly, utterly hopeless. For a bit of fun, let’s try some big dividend first fours. Trick here is to try and get it for the biggest percentage possible for a small outlay. So let’s narrow it to the 3 winning chances 1,11,21 to win and rove the best outsider at good odds the 18 through the other placings. Go wide as possible in the other placings and put in whatever silly outsider pops into your head e.g. 1,11,21 / 18 / 1,3,6,7,11,13,16,21,24 / 1,3,6,7,11,13,16,21,24 x $10 = 5.95% 1,11,21 / 1,3,6,7,11,13,16,21,24 / 18 / 1,3,6,7,11,13,16,21,24 x $10 = 5.95% 1,11,21 / 1,3,6,7,11,13,16,21,24 / 1,3,6,7,11,13,16,21,24 / 18 x $10 = 5.95% Happy Punting ! One to risk: 4-MASTER O'REILLY Roughie: 18-BASALTICO, 7-ISTA KAREEM The Key: First try in the race unless previous winner / Caulfield Cup form RESULTS : Lined up the form pretty well here - really only the 3 winning chances and quite liked the odds about 2nd pick and main danger 21-SHOCKING 1st W=$9.90 who we gave a very strong chance too. When he settled mid field in the run, even though he was wide, was quite confident he was going to be in the finish. Those pesky interntionals came out again and spolied the multiples, they always seem to do that, the over spruiked ones flop badly, the no namers often fill in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, but just can't seem to win for some reason. Poor old 1-VIEWED didn't have much luck and 4-MASTER O'REILLY runs on for 4th again as is tradition now in Melbourne Cups. Result again proves that you need winning form, and impressive winning form to win this race. |
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