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| FLEMINGTON : MELBOURNE CUP - 2nd Nov 2010 |
| Track: SLOW(7) - Weather: FEW SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 3M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Apparently it rained a bit over the weekend – did anyone notice ? Utter deluge over Saturday and Sunday when it barely stopped raining, but only a few showers Monday and Tuesday and this track should be on the improve. Hard to see it improving substantially though, still no sun and we did get an awful amount of rain. Rail has gone out 3M today, track is on the improve to a SLOW(7), will probably continue to improve during the day , but should still remain a genuine slow track. No doubt this track will cut up badly and they will be coming out towards the middle of the track and you would think the swoopers will be winning. Look for genuine wet track form, and try to avoid those with inside barriers – those past the middle of the track should win most races. No doubt later in the day, probably the Cup, something will stick close to the fence and kick on, but safest to stick to the runners on in all races. Melbourne Cup Day is undoubtedly the worse day of the year to have a bet, capacity fields in every race, horses from all over the country, impossible to line up the form. Tough, hard even fields so will be stacks of value – watch the $20,000 trifectas and $50,000 first fours roll in. Betting suggestion is to just play, box up some silly numbers in a trifecta, back a few $20 shots in each race and spread your money around. Does look to be plenty of good each way bets on this program though, so we are going to spread our money around with lots of little bets. RESULTS : Actually have to say we have summed up a pretty tricky day of racing extremely well. Best ground was out past the middle of the track and it was the swoopers winning most races. And yes, as always a stack of long shot winners, big trifectas and first fours, and a $60,000 quaddie. That's Melbourne Cup Day - year after year. The tips actually went extremely well and we found some nice value winners. BEST EACH WAY : Race 5: 12-SPURCIFIC $6 EW SCR $ 12 Finally broke through for a win last start and we are keen to get on again. Loves it wet, has placed down the straight before and love that she gets in at the bottom of the weights here even though she is a last start Caulfield winner. Form from that race is OK too. Down the straight the wider the better will be the go, she is a strong finisher drawn out and looks very well suited here. BEST EACH WAY : Race 3: 13-IRAZU $5 WIN 2nd W=$8.90, P=$2.70 QUINELLA : Race 3 : 13 # 7,9,14,19,21(scr) x $1 = $5 2nd 13-IRAZU W=$8.90 # 1st 14-MACEDONIAN W=$5.80, 3rd 9-MUIR W=$15.60, 4th 7-I'M IMPOSING W=$2.80 QUINELLA = $27.70 Old time stayer who looks like he is about to run into form this time in. Fitter for the 4 runs, loomed up in the MV Cup last start, but didn’t quite finish it off, but will be fitter for the run over the 2500M. Excellent wet track record and looks well weighted here for a horse that has run 2nd in a MV Cup, 3rd and 2nd in a Lexus / SAAB and 2nd in a Sydney Cup. Wee problem is that he hasn’t actually won a race since October 2006, but he just looks like he is about to produce and should be in the finish here. Rather than back the place take wide quinellas and sure to be value in a big field. RESULTS : 13-IRAZU looms at the top of the straight and puts himself into the finish, but just finds one better. Fortunately, it was one we had in the quinella so we get a better collect than backing it each way. As is often the case with these sort of bets, the numbers cover the TRIFECTA = $520.80 and the FIRST FOUR =$2136.70 BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 9-TIO ROSSA $3 EW X Fitter for the 4 runs in and isn’t stepping up in distance this time. Ran on very nicely at Caulfield 2 starts back, then worked home OK in Cranbourne Cup when was coming late and very wide. Probably wants a track the better side of slow, but will appreciate the bigger track here and is a strong finisher and inside barrier should be OK early on in the day. QUINELLA : Race 6: 9-DANCE OF THE OCEAN, 3-ALOTTA SPUR, 12-CANCONI x $3 = $9 X Liking the look of this box quinella in Race 6. The (9) absolutely flew home last start at Caulfield, is lightly raced, drawn a perfect barrier to come down the middle of the track late and has won it’s only start on a wet track. The (3) handled the heavy just fine at Caulfield and can position on the speed here over the Flem 1400M. The wild card is the (12), who is probably going to start long odds, but has only had the 4 starts and shown some ability, flew home on a slow track 1st up at MV and will be the one storming home out wide late. Looks a good value box quinella. BEST ROUGH : Race 7 : 15-MONACO CONSUL $3 WIN, $5 PLACE X Have to have something on this value pick in the Melbourne Cup. Erratic type who has a lot of ability on his day, but they are always tinkering with his gear to get him right. Run in the Caulfield Cup was excellent, and that is always the best form guide for this race, he was the first to go for home, went very wide, and fought on very well in the straight. Wet should be no problem, just needs to be outside runners to settle. Think the $30 or so at the moment looks good value. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 8: 18-THE HANDSOME ONE at around $8 SCR Lightly raced sprinter who has won down the Flem straight before on a heavy track and has won a recent barrier trial. But this is a capacity sprint field, actually the best field to contest this race we can remember, it is usually seriously ordinary. 1st up, over Flem 1200M on a tough, wet track that is cutting up, and has drawn barrier 2 and that is almost certainly going to be a go no zone. Happy to risk. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. Race 3 : FLEXI TRIFECTA 3 / 1,8,11,13,15,17,24 / 1,8,11,13,15,17,24 x $5 = 11.90% 3rd 3-SO YOU THINK W=$3.20 / 1st 8-AMERICAIN W=$10.90, 2nd 24-MALUCKYDAY W=$9.30 There is only one way to claim bragging rights on Cup day – get the trifecta in the Cup. Probably still going to get a decent dividend even if the favourite wins, so just anchor it and go wide as possible in the other legs. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $40.70 NET : $-9.30 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO. POLISH GUMBOOTS Race 2: 9-TIO ROSSA, 6-STARMON, 15-INFLUENTIAL MISS Race 3: 13-IRAZU, 19-ZAUBERIN (emerg), 14-MACEDONIAN, 7-I’M IMPOSING Race 4: 13-JERSEY LILY, 15-DEVILS ARCADE, 20-PRINCESS NARINE (emerg), 4-VALENTINE MISS Race 5: 12-SPURCIFIC, 3-SLEEPERS, 13-CYNDIANA STAR Race 6: 9-DANCE OF THE OCEAN, 3-ALOTTA SPUR, 12-CANCONI Race 7: 3-SO YOU THINK, 15-MONACO CONSUL, 24-MALUCKYDAY Race 8: 12-TAGUS, 10-HIDDEN WONDER, 4-FANJURA Race 9: 6-TRUE PERSUASION, 23-SO ELUSIVE (emerg), 11-KALLOGG, 12-TRIM Race 10: 4-AMAETHON, 19-THE COMEDIAN (emerg), 14-GURU BOB, 9-ALPHARARI |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-TIO ROSSA 6-STARMON 15-INFLUENTIAL MISS 1st W=$24.00 *** nice value winner *** |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-IRAZU 2nd W=$8.90 19-ZAUBERIN 14-MACEDONIAN 1st W=$5.80 Quinella : $27.70 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-JERSEY LILY 1st W=$5.30 15-DEVILS ARCADE 4-VALENTINE MISS 3rd W=$9.70 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-SPURCIFIC SCR 3-SLEEPERS 13-CYNDIANA STAR |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-DANCE OF THE OCEAN 3-ALOTTA SPUR 12-CANCONI |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-SO YOU THINK 3rd W=$3.20 15-MONACO CONSUL 24-MALUCKYDAY 2nd W=$9.30 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-TAGUS 1st W=$11.90 ** value winner on top *** 10-HIDDEN WONDER 3rd W=$5.20 4-FANJURA |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-TRUE PERSUASION 23-SO ELUSIVE 11-KALLOGG |
| RACE 10: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-AMAETHON 2nd W=$8.90 19-THE COMEDIAN SCR 9-ALPHARARI |
| RACE 7: MELBOURNE CUP 3200M GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 3-SO YOU THINK 3rd W=$3.20 15-MONACO CONSUL 24-MALUCKYDAY 2nd W=$9.30 |
| Others: 8, 13, 1 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 2-CAMPANOLOGIST, 11-DESCARADO, 23-ONCE WERE WILD Handy : 3-SO YOU THINK, 6-MR MEDICI, 8-AMERICAIN, 12-HARRIS TWEED, 17-ZAVITE, 19-HOLBERG, 21-RED RULER, 24-MALUCKYDAY Sack : 1-SHOCKING, 4-ZIPPING, 5-ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE, 7-SHOOT OUT, 9-TOKAI TRICK, 10-BUCCELLATI, 13-MANIGHAR, 14-MASTER O'REILLY, 15-MONACO CONSUL, 16-PROFOUND BEAUTY, 18-BAUER, 20-PRECEDENCE, 22-LINTON Chances: 3-SO YOU THINK is Bart’s wonder horse who is stringing a list of W-W-W wins together – WOW, WOW, WOW. Last 7 runs have all been outstanding – it does make you wonder how much of a leader’s track it was in the Caulfield Guineas last spring which was his only unplaced career run ? Dominant Cox Plate win last spring when burst onto the scene. Backed up in Emirates when over raced badly and still kicked, but one came out of the pack and ran him down. Given the full year off and had a throat operation, and we secretly suspect had some sort of space age, bionic super horse transplant (trying to start a conspiracy theory – spread it around). Came out on an unsuitable wet track, 1st up, after a year off in the Memsie and still managed to hold off his rivals. Fractious in the barriers and over raced a little 2nd up in the Underwood, but still too good. Cruised to win the Yalumba. Never going to lose the Cox Plate when camped on the lead and went for home. Was a little concerned that he didn’t win going away from them in that race, they were actually closing on him on the line. Came out on Saturday in the Mackinnon and just destroyed him – and that is what you wanted to see going into this race – a streaking, running away from them win. Could be an utter, utter freak. Not often that you get a genuine WFA star into the Melbourne Cup, and our theory has always been if they run – back them. This is a very different race though. 3200M, and has never been beyond 2000M. Prospect of a slow to heavy track, he went through the going just fine on Saturday and track was probably slow by that race. But trainer and jockey have both said before that he doesn’t really handle the wet ground and he was SCR 1st up in the Liston Stakes because of that. He has had issues before with getting worked up and over racing, and got worked up when the music was blaring before the Cox Plate. The drenching on Saturday actually worked in his favour – there was no crowd around. Just wonder if on Cup Day with a big crowd and lots of attention on him if he might get worked up a little ? The other thing is he has drawn an inside barrier, which is good if he can settle, go to sleep and just unleash at the end of the race – but all of his runs have been sit outside and stalk and again suspect there is the chance he might get worked up trapped inside a capacity field. The 3200M? Again a query, if they can get him to settle and produce at the right time no doubt he can win, but if one of the internationals runs them along and turns it into a tough slog again might struggle. So, suspect at the 3200M, suspect on wet ground, suspect inside runners in a big field, but sheesh he does look too good to go past. That was the best Mackinnon win for a very, very long time and you always back up on the best Mackinnon run into the Cup. Just going far too well to rule anything out for him – he does have a lot of challenges though on Tuesday so he is no sure thing. Most horses, not matter how good they are you would probably want to take on in this race with those queries , but he could be something utterly out of this world. Obviously the one to beat. Strong chance. 3rd W=$3.20 8-AMERICAIN is the overseas horse most people are pushing and was a strong winner in the Geelong Cup when did get a perfect sit, but also perfect ride from jockey to wait for the gap to come. Was the win really that good ? The only internationals we want to back are those we have seen run over here – so we are not betting on an unknown, we can line up their form and we know they have travelled OK and are ready to produce. The internationals coming through Geelong Cup wins have gone well in recent years, MEDIA PUZZLE 1st in 2002 and BAUER 2nd in 2008, and it’s so important to have winning form going into this race. Really like that he has strung 4 wins on end, only had 19 starts, looks to be on the up and that is the type you want in this race. Carried 58kgs in the Geelong Cup, drops to 54.5 today. Seems to love the 3000M, no query on the wet, really starting to warm to this one. Guess only real query is how good the Geelong Cup win was – wasn’t an emphatic win, he got a perfect sit, most of his rivals found trouble or were caught wide. MEDIA PUZZLE and BAUER’s wins were probably better. He hasn’t drawn too badly, can go forward, will put himself into the race – awful lot to like about this one. Have to respect winning form. Strong chance. 1st W=$10.90 13-MANIGHAR is an overseas Cumani stable runner and thankfully they nearly always give their runners a start before the Cup so we can line them up. They seem to have worked out what sort of horse you need and how to set them so have to respect their runners. Run in the Caulfield Cup was OK, he wasn’t too far behind them, and you would think there would be a lot of improvement to come, and he was running about a little and doing a few things wrong. Expect improvement today. Lightly raced and prefer to be on the lightly raced internationals. Proven over the 3000M. Probably drops back from outside barrier? Caulfield Cup run was good enough to consider in this. Rough chance. 15-MONACO CONSUL is one we are warming to, think his was the best run out of the Caulfield Cup. Erratic type who is hard to follow and stable spend a lot of time tinkering with him to try and get him right – though the gear change he really needs involves a large pair of scissors and usually makes males squirm and sit cross legged. Has classic 3YO staying form. Been up and down this spring, stuck on really well 1st up in the Liston in the worse going and looked set for a big spring. Was struggling on the turn in the Makybe Diva, stopped and took a quick bite out of an opponent, and actually got going again to finish off nicely. Did very little in the Turnbull – worth nothing he drew barrier 1 there. Then came out and put in a huge run in the Caulfield Cup, he was the 1st to go for home, made his run 6 wide about 600M out, quickly scooted around the whole field to hit the lead on the turn and stuck on pretty well in the straight. Should be peaking with the 4 runs in. Loves it wet – two of his best runs have been on the wet, though stable keep trying to say he is better on the dry. The key to this one is that he doesn’t like being inside horses, so drawn out a little today is good. Solid staying type, will get through the ground, sticks on well, Caulfield Cup place getter, yet is going to start $30 or so because of the depth of this field. Strong rough chance. 24-MALUCKYDAY has suddenly burst into Cup calculations last week with a extremely impressive Lexus win. That was a solid staying contest, they ran along and he streaked past them and won going away. Won 3 in a row and on an upward spiral, and got to respect winning form going into this race. Was only beating small fields in Sydney before that so was really a huge step up to win like that on Saturday. Drawn a perfect barrier, he can settle handy and burst through and put himself into the race. Again only 8 starts and you do wonder if this race has come along a bit too early ? Largely unknown on slow going, probably demote him the wetter the track gets and promote the drier it gets. His win on Saturday though was just as good as BREW or SHOCKING and they both won the Cup at their next start. Hard to see anything from Saturday beating him home. Solid chance. 2nd W=$9.30 Place: 1-SHOCKING is last year’s Cup winner who has been doing everything right this time in. Finished on very well 1st up in the Liston. Flew home over the top of them on a swoopers track 2nd up here in the Makybe Diva on a heavy track. Cluttered up and took a while to get clear in the Underwood at Caulfield. Took a while to get clear runs in the Turnbull and bobbed out in driving finish – if he got to the outside he probably wins that race. Huge run in the Caulfield Cup on a heavy track when again he took a while to let down after they came around the turn but extremely strong finish – and it is normally the Caulfield Cup form you want to look for in this race. Mildly disappointing here on Saturday when he did work home very solidly, but was expected to finish a bit closer. But that was a typical Mackinnon run from a Cups horse, and the (3) didn’t really run away from him. Pay attention to the Caulfield Cup run – that is the form for this race. Flemington specialist, won Lexus, Melbourne Cup, Makybe Diva this track which is an imposing record, all tough ,hard competitive races. Importantly does seem to excel in the wet – won Makybe Diva on a very heavy track and ran on well in the Caulfield Cup on a heavy track. Definitely better making a long solid run down the middle of the track, outside runners, so outside barrier probably isn’t that big an issue. Won this race from barrier 21 last year. Did only have 51 kgs though last year. Obvious chance. Main question is can he win this race as top weight? Doesn’t happen very often, MAYKBE DIVA did it in 2005, but was a long time before that for top weighted winners. No doubt he will go extremely well, seems to have a lot to suit today, right form, Flem, heavy track, all the right form through spring. Will almost certainly be in the finish – but just suspect he is going to find one better with this weight. You could probably anchor him to rove in trifectas as he should be in the finish. Strong chance – but preferring place, just can’t see him winning with top weight. 11-DESCARADO has got all the right form going into this race, Caulfield Cup winner, solid run in the Mackinnon, those are the races to pay attention to. Solid effort in the Caulfield Cup when rolled forward form outside barrier and stuck on well – he just loves the wet and is going to get conditions to suit. Did get a penalty from that race – so meets the (12) and the (14) 1.5 kgs worse off and there wasn’t that much between them. Solid effort here on Sat when again loved the wet, rolled forward and stuck on really well. Does meet the (3) 2kgs better for that run, but hard to see him reversing the margin. Interesting to note that he has beaten home the (1) and the (7) on Sat and meets them 2kgs and 1kgs better off – so he should be able to beat them home again today. Drawn barrier 1 and will go forward – track will almost certainly be cutting up coming into this race and the winners are likely to be coming out wide on the track most of the day – but you can just see something in the Cup cutting the corner and getting into the finish, so might be this fella. Just not sure he is good enough to win the Caulfield – Melbourne Cups double – the horses that do that are usually quite outstanding and have come off emphatic Caulfield Cups wins. His Caulfield Cup win was solid, but nothing special. Almost certainly around in the finish, but prefer place chance. 12-HARRIS TWEED is probably rather under rated and has been going along great this spring. Kicked clear early in the straight when travelling in the Bart Cummings, but was probably a little lucky on the line to hold off a fast finisher. Came out and loomed up and looked like he was going to win the Caulfield Cup – but didn’t. Just thought the way he loomed up, and the run he had he was entitled to win that race – think that was his chance to win a big one. He box seated in the Sydney Cup this year and Melbourne Cup last year and loomed on both occasions like he was going to run all over the top of them – but didn’t. 4 runs in, probably still got improvement to come and looks to be perfectly peaking on the day. Loves it wet too a real plus. Often Caulfield Cup place getters are the ones to follow into this race as they get no penalty. Drawn OK, likely he will settle in a good position and almost certainly will loom again at some stage in the straight. Just can’t see him winning. Solid place chance. 16-PROFOUND BEAUTY is an overseas visitor from the Weld stable who knows what it takes to win this race. Apparently trainer says she loves it wet – though her form doesn’t exactly show that, but the track ratings are probably a little different in Ireland. Ran 5th in this race in 2008 when stuck on really well – and trainer complained track was too firm on the day. Been sparingly raced since and has kept up a good winning strike rate. Probably the unknown quantity of the internationals, she has proven she can measure up over here before, and the give in the ground is likely to suit. Has drawn an outside barrier here so they go back ? Did only have 51.5 kgs in her other Cup run and goes up to 54kgs today. Rare that horses win this race at their second or third attempt – if they don’t win it first time then they are usually not good enough. Happy to consider as a place chance. 17-ZAVITE is a tough, dour on pace stayer who thrives on a lot of racing, but struggles at the top level in these races. He started spring off really well, he was the best of the runners on in the Liston, and the Makybe Diva – both on unsuitable wet tracks.. Stuck on well in the Underwood when led. Got caught up in ferocious speed battle in the Turnbull and dropped out (worth noting that the (11) did the same). Ridden from behind from outsider barrier in the Caulfield Cup was an unusual move – his best runs have all been on speed. He actually ran on OK in the Caulfield Cup too – finished on well to be first of the second pack of horses home, again on a heavy track, and he doesn’t really handle it wet. Wet track today is against. Plus with him is that he is proven over the 3200M, wins in the Adelaide and Auckland Cups. Only try in the Melbourne Cup was ordinary – 19th in 2009. In form on pace jockey on board, drawn a nice barrier and he should box seat or lead and get a pretty good run here. Actually suspect he might stick on OK in the straight, maybe even cut to the inside and poke through whilst all the others go wide. Been kinda ironic in the 150th Melbourne Cup if the other Cummings won ! Think he is worth a value place chance in wide trifectas – suspect he might stick on and run OK here. Best of the super roughies for the place. 20-PRECEDENCE is one of the form stayers of the spring so great to see he has got into the field. The Cummings stable have been aiming this one at the Cup for a while now, they just have been struggling to get him right, he can over race and struggle to settle. Really good form this time in, always had the MV Cup in his keeping, guess the question is how good the opposition was. But winning form going into this race is important. Solid staying type who will probably really enjoy making it out to Flemington for the 1st time this spring. He has had the solid staying preparation, 2 x 2400M runs this time in, ready for a hard tough slog here. Will probably settle back and wide from his barrier, but that’s good – wants a long clear crack at them. Probably just OK on wet ground, you would think he would want the track to be dead or better to be competitive against this lot. He has had to be penalised twice to make it into this field, and you would have just preferred him as a light weight chance with 51kgs rather than 53.5 kgs. Not sure he has the class to win this, this is one of the better Cup fields, rough chance only. Solid place chance though. 23-ONCE WERE WILD is a tough on pace mare who was ridden accordingly on Saturday, and kicked clear and actually looked the winner, till the (24) came storming home. That was a pretty solid staying effort, the stable mate crossed and pressured her in the lead so it was a fair effort to kick clear again in the straight. Unlucky in the Geelong Cup before that when was held up for runs for a large majority of the straight. Largely unknown on wet ground. Solid staying type who will go forward here and make this a solid staying contest. Actually think she probably gets a clear lead here and will run them along in front – she might not get that much pressure. Pretty much impossible to lead all the way in this race, She will kick clear in the straight and look competitive, but likely to get run down. Rough place. Sacking: 2-CAMPANOLOGIST is a overseas visitor from the Godolphin stable (insert appropriate adjective before that – mighty / powerful, etc). They have tried damm hard to win this race for a fair while now and have pulled a few seconds, normally with non descript runners with very little media hype about them – not the stable stars. Local jockey on board is always a plus. Drawn outside barrier, seems to go forward in his races so could be the pace setter here. We always avoid these overseas horses, as don’t like betting on unknown quantities. At least now the all powerful, all conquering, massively flopping media hype is gone on these runners so they do always start at decent odds. Always worth considering the over seas runners for wide trifectas, they normally finish 2nd to 6th, but that’s about it. No 4-ZIPPING is a grand old campaigner, tough as anything and sure to be a lucrative post race career for him promoting super tough kitchen garbage bags. Has been around forever, won 3 Sandown Classics, placed in 3 Cox Plates, won an Australian Cup, Turnbull, MV Cup, placed in a Mackinnon there isn’t much this guy has not done. His form over the last 2 years has really been 1st rate . Four time winner at Flem. But the Melbourne Cup? He is going into this on an extremely light preparation, just the 3 runs in and although he is a tough, slogging horse this is likely to be a tough slogging race in the wet which might prove a bit much. He has tried this race three times before – 9th in 2008 when didn’t have much luck and came from near the tail on the home turn , 4th in 2007 when he stuck on but did had every chance (again coming from well back in the field), and 4th in 2006 when raced handy. The horses that win this race normally win it at their 1st try, on the up, on a upward spiral and, like the guys who run this website this one’s best days are probably well and truly behind him. On the plus side only 1.3L from the freak (3) in the Cox Plate, and does meet him 2.5kgs better here. Drawn out and probably drops well back here again. Probably a bit of a query on really wet ground – there are two slow track placings, but one of them was as a well beaten $2.15 fav (i.e. a race he was expected to win). His form is great, he is tough and will slog away, but on a wet track and having his 3rd crack at the race can’t see him as more than a very rough place chance – if that. Passing. 4th W=$25.60 5-ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE is a 8 year old UK stayer with 54 starts so has had a fair bit of racing. Normally carries big weights and is proven over the 3200M. Drawn a nice barrier. Spot glance of form it does seem like he prefers firmer going. Impossible to tell with these over seas types, read the media reports with a grain of salt , local jockey on board a plus. Apart from that ? No idea – prefer to back horses we know something about. No 6-MR MEDICI is a Hong Kong visitor who at least has had a lead up run in the Caulfield Cup so we can line up his form. That run wasn’t too bad, at least he took up a position in running and he stuck on OK. Should be improved for the run as well. Ex pat Australian jockey goes on board, drawn a nice barrier and will probably poke through sometime in the straight. Yet to run past 2400M though. Did win in Hong Kong 2 starts back in driving rain so should handle the ground OK. Probably worth considering as a rough place chance when you throw in one or two silly internationals to try and grab a collect but that’s about it. 7-SHOOT OUT has been making all the right noises this spring, running on in all the right races, but so often these types are aimed all spring at this one race – and don’t produce. Which makes it a long and frustrating spring for those following them. Form seems to be getting gradually worse ! 1-1-3-3-4-4, at least he knows how to make nice numerical patterns which is always so important in finding a Cup winner. Has had a nice long hard campaign which is going to be a plus in a race that is likely to be a hard tough slog fest. Wasn’t far from the (1) and (4) in the Turnbull, ran on OK in the Cox Plate (probably does not handle MV), and stuck on OK in the Mackinnon. Typical Melbourne Cup preparation, but these type of horses just don’t win the Cup anymore. We have always been of the belief to win the big one you need to be in peak winning form, not just running on for nice 3rds and 4ths. Fair enough he has been getting closer into the finish than most of the Cup Wannabes have in previous years, but these are the types you can follow all spring and they so rarely produce on the day. Handles it wet just fine. Drawn outside, probably drops back and so hard to win this race coming from behind. Nothing wrong with form and will probably lug on and finish in the first 6 or so somewhere, but not one we are particularly enthused about. Risking. 9-TOKAI TRICK is a Japanese horse and they looked like dominating the Cup forever after running the quinella in 2006, but quarantine has kept them away since then. 9 year old, 44 starts, doesn’t seem to have travelled outside of Japan before. Was caught wide in the Caulfield Cup, but run was nothing to get excited about. Largely unknown on wet ground. Always great to see the internationals have a run over here first so we can line them up. Or in this case – put a line through them. Not interested. 10-BUCCELLATI comes into this race with a scintillating 0-0-7-0 form line that has SO YOU THINK shaking in his booties. Fantastic that these types get a run every year, luckily this year most of the in form local horses got into the field anyway, but would have been a shame to have this one get in and the form horses miss out. Qualified overseas stayer that has been bought by local connections so they can have a Cup runner, and get a good car park on Cup Day. Case of the cooking show “And here is one we prepared earlier” cup runner. Form is appalling, Last, Last, he actually raced on speed and hit the lead at the top of the straight in a fast run Turnbull which wasn’t a bad run. But nothing run in the Caulfield Cup as well – the wet is a real issue for this one. 500-1 is unders. No 14-MASTER O'REILLY seems to be really struggling for form and bit of a surprise to see him going around here. Shown very little in 4 runs this time in, stewards report said had a perfect run last start in the MV Cup – but failed to finish off the race. He has actually ran in 3 previous Melbourne Cups, 4th in 2009 when finishing on well, 4th in 2008 when finished on really well and was rather unlucky cause got held up for runs on the turn, and 8th in 2007. But as we commented on the (4), the horses that win this race are using contesting it for the 1st time. Hasn’t won a race now since Caulfield Cup 2007, that’s starting to be ancient history. Really struggles in the wet going too. On the off chance the track improves to dead and you want to collect a $100,000 first four maybe through him in – he has gone OK in the race before. Won’t seriously contest the finish, silly fun flukers hope for tattslotto type 4th on a firmer track. No 18-BAUER is the little grey doer that thought he could win the Melbourne Cup, and almost did in 2008, when just nosed out in a photo finish. That was coming off a nice Geelong Cup win. Has been injured since then, had close to 2 years on the side lines and really hasn’t done much in his two runs back. Rather ambitiously being set for this race again, has to be a very big question mark over his form and fitness. Likely to drop well back from inside barrier here and no appeal at all. No 19-HOLBERG is the overseas runner with the biggest spruik on it – and normally it’s these ones that run the worse. Godolphin, and apparently they do have a high opinion of this one and they were ready to scratch their other runner the (2) if required to ensure this one got a start. Famous international jockey on board. Nothing better than seeing famous international jockeys covered in mud. Only the 12 starts, good wining strike rate, just impossible to line these ones up – and normally the no namers run better than the hyped ones. Happy to risk. 21-RED RULER oh dear how does he get into all these races? This guy has been going around for years in the spring lead up and cups, and hasn’t been competitive in any of them. They finally put him back to handicap on Sat and he ran OK, but miles behind the (22),(24). Has tried the Caulfield Cup 3 times without much success, so looks primed to finish tailed off in a Melbourne Cup. He has box seated quite a few times in feature races, the gap has come, and he has done nothing., 16 starts in Australia now for just the 2 placings and definite query on the wet. Big no no. 22-LINTON is a up and comer who is grey and you gotta love that. Extremely lightly raced, only the 8 starts and still lots of improvement to come with this one you would think. Should be ready to ping now with the 4 runs in, always shown lots of potential and has been taken along very slowly. Solid staying effort to win the Herbert Power, then loomed like he was going to win the Lexus, but sheesh that (24) went past him and won going away. Does meet the (24) 1.5 kgs better off which is a bonus. Pretty much unknown on wet ground and thinking is doesn’t really handle it. Is he going to be seasoned enough to handle a hard slog 3200M race? Bit unsure. Hard to see him beating the (24) off Saturday’s run and it was the ride that won him the Herbert Power against the (20). For a horse that has always been taken so along so slowly and carefully you just wonder how he is going to go on such a quick back up. Drawn very wide as well so likely to drop well back here and be giving them a long start in the straight, and really hard to win this race coming from well back. Form is OK, but gone off him a bit in this, maybe rough place chance if the track dries out a little. Passing. Summary: This does seem to be one of the best Melbourne Cups we have had for a long time, it has everything, a potential horse of a generation freak in the 3-SO YOU THINK, last years Melbourne Cup winner, this year’s Caulfield Cup winner, Cox Plate winner, a young rising stayer on the up, and of course 4-ZIPPING and 14-MASTER O'REILLY who are the relatives you have to invite to your party every year. Lots of traditional form lines going into the Melbourne Cup. In general : - Caulfield Cup form is the best form, often the place getters from that race run well as they don’t get a weight penalty. - follow the best run out of the Mackinnon - only back international horses if they have had a run over here and you can see how they are going. What’s the point in betting on unknowns ? - 1st try at the race - it’s very rare for horses to fail one year and come back and win the next, horses normally win at their 1st attempt. - winning form – so often the horse that wins this race is on an upward spiral and is in winning form. Tough competitive field and you really need to be at the top of your game. 11 out of the last 20 winners have been last start winners and normally there are only a handful in the race each year. We are strongly opposed to the concept of “good Melbourne Cup trials”. These are the horses that will tease and flash home all spring in the lead up runs for 3rd and 4th and everyone says “oh won’t he be suited over 2 miles on the 1st Tuesday in November?” . Yes he will - and he will do the same thing again and run on for about 5th. To win the cup – you need to be in winning form, or at least seriously getting into the finish, not running on for a well beaten placing. Pace here should be even, probably 23-ONCE WERE WILD probably leads by a margin, 2-CAMPANOLOGIST, 11-DESCARADO next, from 17-ZAVITE. You would think 3-SO YOU THINK will just be cruising on the rails behind these and the genuine speed will mean the field will spread out a bit more giving him more of a chance to settle. Only question mark is if one of the international decides to tear them along in the lead and turns it into a strong staying test. Have to rate 3-SO YOU THINK on top, he is just unbeatable at the moment. He is no good thing though, lots of question marks, 3200M, wet track, settling in big field, settling with the crowd, any ordinary champion horse it would really put you off them – but he could just be better than just about anything we have seen. He will have to make his run along the inside, good chance the track will be cutting up and favouring those running on out wide as well so he does have a lot against him today. Loving the value about the main danger 15-MONACO CONSUL at around $30, best run from the Caulfield Cup, loves it wet, just bloody hard to follow, but definitely worth something each way. Despite the late arrival on the scene have to respect 24-MALUCKYDAY, will get a great run into this with no weight and in form – just probably prefer it better side of slow. Genuine chance to 8-AMERICAIN, just not sure how good that Geelong Cup win was, and best roughie is international 13-MANIGHAR who might improve off Caulfield Cup run. Super roughie for the big collect in the trifecta and first four is 17-ZAVITE who will box seat and should stick on OK. Incredible value about lots of good horses in this years Cup and promises to seriously be a great race. Just stop the bloody rain PLEASE. One to risk: 7-SHOOT OUT, 22-LINTON Roughie: 13-MANIGHAR , 17-ZAVITE The Key: Winning form leading into the race – horse needs to be in peak form. RESULTS : One of the stongest Melbourne Cup fields and probably one of the best Cups ever run - really exciting race. 3-SO YOU THINK is absolutely gallant in defeat and a fantastic ride by the jockey on a horse who was suspect at the 3200M, and had drawn an inside barrier and best ground was down the middle of the track - he was expertly nursed and he got into the best going. He probably hit the lead about 200M out but just didn't quite see out the trip and one of the imports out stayed him. On a dry track suspect he might have won, or gone very close to winning. Huge run by the up and coming 24-MALUCKYDAY and the first three home have spaced the rest who were a bit ordinary. Dear old 4-ZIPPING ran 4th again, such a consistent horse, and you could probably see that coming. Our form preview was pretty much spot on, especially when we emphisased the importance of winning form going into the Cup, with the trifecta being filled by 3 last start winners. We tipped the trifecta in the first four selections, of course the one time we do it it pays nothing - $306 |
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