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| FLEMINGTON : MELBOURNE CUP - 1st Nov 2011 |
| Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 3M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Fair bit of rain around Saturday night and Sunday, easing to a few showers through Monday and Tuesday. Clearing on Tues, but not much sunshine, so this track should probably retain a fair bit of give. Looking at a genuine DEAD track, probably worse side of dead. Track raced pretty evenly on Saturday, although a strong head wind meant the leaders tended to fold up and the runners on featured in most races. It was noticeable in the later races that the winners were coming out wide. Rail goes out to 3M here, but generally Cup Day is always pretty fair racing and probably favours those running on down the middle of the track as the track starts to wear a bit. Invariably the winner of the cup will come down the middle of the track. Down the straight we have this ridiculous situation now where they are all trying to race down a tight little 3 metre patch of turf which makes for appalling racing. It is going to be utterly fascinating to watch what happens in Race 9 today, a capacity 20 horse field down the straight. Suspect they will all knock each other over and there isn’t going to be much room to take runs so maybe actually look to those on pace in this race. Melbourne Cup Day is traditionally an utterly awful day to have a bet. Ridiculously big, even fields and lots and lots of form lines. Today is a classic Cup day, some of these races are seriously impossible. So bet for fun, spread win bets out over 3-4 horses in each race and take wide box quinellas. Make sure you throw in plenty of $20 shots at the bottom of the weights as well. RESULTS : Again the sun comes through and these tracks dry so quickly through the day - up to a GOOD(3) by the time of the Cup. They avoid the rails all day and head to the middle of the track, and they can run on out wide and win, but it was interesting that those racing on speed near the inside often stuck on. Down the straight as predicted they keep trying to go wide and the winners were those racing on speed nearer in the inside rail who missed all the trouble. Pretty ordinary day for the tips, but it is always an ordinary betting day anyway. BEST BET : Race 6: 8-SECRET LIAISON $7 WIN X QUINELLA : Race 6: 8-SECRET LIAISON, 5-THE FAIRY’S KISS x $3 X Lightly raced one on the up. Stormed home for impressive win at Sale 1st up, then only just missed in a photo at Caulfield. Should be fitter for the 2 runs in, strong finisher, they should be running on OK , seems to have a fair bit of ability, and looks a solid bet at around $7. Maybe just as saver take a quinella with the best of the on pacers the (5). RESULTS : Looms up half way down the straight and in a blanket finish isn't far off them, but still a little disappointing. BEST WIN : Race 4: 17-SUSSURO, 13-MISS BINDI $5 WIN X QUINELLA : Race 4 Box 3,8, 13,14,17 x 50 cents = $5 2nd 3-LITTLE SURFER GIRL W=$8.90 The (17) is a strong finisher who likes a bit of give in the ground and has put in some great slashing runs. Fitter for the 2 runs in after a long lay off, seems to have a bit of potential and should be finishing hard here. The (13) kicked off her campaign with a very impressive win, is a drop back and finish hard horse and just hasn’t found the right race since. 1400M here, running on, looks ideal and note last start at Geelong she run into a dead end on the rails and had nowhere to go. Nice weight drop too. Both around the $15 mark, so back both to win and take a saver box quinella with the on pacers as there are quite a few with ability in this race. RESULTS : The (13) runs 4th, the (17) runs on a little, both stick to the inside and track probably ends up a little firmer than they would like, but both are disappointing. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 6-INFLUENTIAL MISS $7 EW 3rd W=$6.70, P=$2.20 = 2.20 x 7 = $15.40 We have been waiting for this one to appear for a few weeks now. She has a nice finish on her and just needs a bit of give in the ground to show her best. Fitter for the 2 runs in and go back to the Caulfield video and see her working home really well down the middle on an unsuitable firm track. She won this race last year at $25 (OK we were on, so maybe we are playing favourites), beating a fairly strong field which included WELL ROUNDED and ALOHA. She was $11 yesterday but that is going fast. Maybe only little concern is the inside barrier, she is best finishing hard down the middle of the track. Very keen on this one though, back her each way and use her as the first leg of doubles into what ever else you like on the day. RESULTS : Just gets held up for a run a little, back in the pack trying to get clear, and finishes on well when out to the middle of the track. Probably could have finished a little closer, but track also firmer than she wants. Keep following BEST ROUGH : Race 10: 12-VERDASCO $3 EW X Actually despite the big field in the last race think there are only 3 winning chances – the 14,12, and 2. Plus the numbers add up and you can’t really go wrong when that happens can you ? In a really tough quaddie you can probably go just these three in the last leg. The (12) is the value runner here. Has a wide barrier but they should be running on late in the day so that shouldn’t be a problem. Looks way over the odds, consistent, fitter for the 3 runs in, and gets weight pull from the (2) today. Bit of a gratuitous $20 shot in the last for those trying to get out, but worth a shot. Maybe back it each way and take the quinellas with the other two selections. RESULTS : Not far off them, but not competitive. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 3: 12-EXCLUDED at around $5.50 2nd W=$3.30 Sometimes you umm and aah and get all nervous trying to pick out a lay of the day, and sometimes it is just bleeding obvious. Who on earth keeps backing these Williams stable runners at less than even money ? Last two starts. Beaten $1.75 favourite at Caulfield. Beaten $1.80 favourite at Terang. Out to 2800M here today, 1st time past 2000M, capacity field, barrier 22 and still currently favourite? Happy to take on. RESULTS : Gets heavily backed again - 3rd time in a row. Runs on extremely well and looked like we were in trouble, but get out by the skin of our teeth. Youch. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. QUINELLA : Race 9 Box : 2 (scr),4,17,18,19 x 50 cents = $5 SCR = $2 2nd 17-TOP DROP W=$20.50 Hardest race of the day is the sprint down the straight. Capacity field, and there is this silly racing pattern at the moment where they all try and race down a narrow strip out in the middle of the course. That is asking for disaster, there are a half dozen of these who are going to try and get runs wide against the outside rail so sure to be lots of hard luck stories. Let’s try and fluke a quinella, but the trick here is to actually pick those drawn more towards the inside and racing on speed whilst the rest of the field is crammed against the outside rail. So base the quinella around the on pacers the (2) and the (18) (at nice odds) who might just make their own luck on the speed here. Sure to be a $20,000 plus trifecta in this race. RESULTS : Good idea, unfortunately we lost a runner through a scratching. The leaders and those nearer the inside fight out the finish, whilst those towards the outside strike trouble. The winner 5-FACILE TIGRE was the leader drawn near the inside. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $17.40 NET : $-32.60 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. SHINE AND POLISH LAST YEAR’S CUP. Race 2: 6-INFLUENTIAL MISS, 2-SMOULDER, 19-ORIENTAL RUBY (emerg), 15-TANTRUM Race 3: 3-ABOVE AVERAGE, 10-WESTERN SYMBOL, 7-OLYMPIC WIN Race 4: 17-SUSSURO, 13-MISS BINDI, 14-NERIANI Race 5: 2-KARUTA QUEEN, 5-AFRICAN PULSE, 7-HOLLYWIERD Race 6: 8-SECRET LIAISON, 5-THE FAIRY’S KISS, 1-DISPUTES Race 7: 17-AT FIRST SIGHT, 1-AMERICAIN, 10-MOURAYAN Race 8: 12-LONE COMMAND, 4-LAMASERY, 22-LANGRIDGE STREET (emerg), 16-FOXHAM Race 9: 4-PERTURBO, 2-CONSERVATORIUM, 18-LIQUIDATION Race 10: 14-TOO DEADLY, 12-VERDASCO, 2-UNDER THE EIFFEL |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-INFLUENTIAL MISS 2nd W=$6.70 2-SMOULDER 15-TANTRUM |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-ABOVE AVERAGE 10-WESTERN SYMBOL 7-OLYMPIC WIN 3rd W=$20.50 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 17-SUSSURO 13-MISS BINDI 14-NERIANI |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-KARUTA QUEEN 2nd W=$1.60 5-AFRICAN PULSE 1st W=$5.40 7-HOLLYWIERD Quinella : $2.70 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-SECRET LIAISON 5-THE FAIRY’S KISS 1-DISPUTES |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 17-AT FIRST SIGHT 1-AMERICAIN 10-MOURAYAN SCR |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-LONE COMMAND 4-LAMASERY 1st W=$4.70 22-LANGRIDGE STREET |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-PERTURBO SCR 2-CONSERVATORIUM 18-LIQUIDATION |
| RACE 10: RESULTS |
| Tips: 14-TOO DEADLY 12-VERDASCO 2-UNDER THE EIFFEL 1st W=$3.70 |
| RACE 7: MELBOURNE CUP 3200M GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 17-AT FIRST SIGHT 1-AMERICAIN 10-MOURAYAN SCR |
| Others: 18,22,9,3 Pace: FAST Leaders : 2-JUKEBOX JURY, 5-GLASS HARMONIUM, 10-MOURAYAN, 21-THE VERMINATOR Handy : 1-AMERICAIN, , 6-MANIGHAR, 8-FOX HUNT, 12-RED CADEAUX, 14-ILLO, 16-MODUN, 22-TULLAMORE, 23-NIWOT Back : 3-DUNADEN, 4-DRUNKEN SAILOR, 9-LUCAS CRANACH, 11-PRECEDENCE, 13-HAWK ISLAND, 15-LOST IN THE MOMENT, 17-AT FIRST SIGHT, 18-MOYENNE CORNICHE, 19-SAPTAPADI, 20-SHAMROCKER, 24-OLDER THAN TIME Chances: 1-AMERICAIN is last year’s Cup winner and a true class stayer. He was the original top weight in this field from first declarations and there is some sort of long dusty history about how long it has been since the original top weight has won this race. Got perfect sit in Geelong Cup last year and burst through at the right time, then real class staying 3200M win in the Melbourne Cup last year with 54.5 kgs. Thought last year was one of the strongest Melbourne Cups we have had for a while, with the best horse in Australia SO YOU THINK, the up and coming staying star MALUCKYDAY (even if he didn’t go on) – and this one stormed over the top of them. Quality win. Seemed to be some question mark over his form since then overseas – not that we follow the French form. Lot to like about MV win – he was very well suited under the weight conditions, carrying close to the same weight as lots of lesser performed horses. But tight turning MV track was never going to suit, he was held up and boxed in and he managed to overcome this and come out and pounce. Really liked that win. Bit of give in the ground is going to suit here and seems to be going just as well this year. Outside barrier is a plus to, giving him plenty of running room to come out and run on. Question mark is of course going to be the 58kgs – and more of a concern that he is giving 22 of these at least 3.5 kgs which seems a very lopsided weight scale. But think you just need to believe what you see - 3 runs in Australia – 3 wins – Geelong, Melbourne and Moonee Valley Cups. He might just be simply outstanding and these sort of horses can come out and win against the odds – and giving weight to a entire field. Be interesting to see if he wins what weight they give him for next year going for a three peat – following on from the MAKYBE DIVA benefit of a few years ago. Solid speed will suit. Don’t try and question this one, it is going to be a huge ask at the weights but he might just be simply outstanding. One to beat. 4th W=$4.90 3-DUNADEN is another international runner but is one we have seen and can line up. Strong win in the Geelong Cup when ridden very confidently and came out around the home turn and went past them pretty quickly. Geelong Cup form has been excellent over the last 10 years or so think MEDIA PUZZLE, BAUER, AMERICAIN. Maybe just not quite sure how strong the Geelong Cup was this year with a smaller than normal field. Question mark here is going to be the jockey, with Williams like to remain suspended and some replacement straight off the plane jumping on board. It is difficult enough getting through customs let alone judging your run to perfection first time down the Flem straight. Drawn out to race in a bit of space, last start in form winner which is a big plus and have to respect there. Chance. 1st W=$8.20 9-LUCAS CRANACH is a super spruiked German international who is part of a well thought out Melbourne Cup campaign with local connections buying the horse, and sending a local trainer overseas to prepare it for this race. Just sounds damn expensive to us. Does drop back, but has a very strong finish and has been set for this race all along. Solid run in the Caulfield Cup when came with a strong run out wide on the turn, went early and 8 horses wide to try to get into the race , but died on his run towards the end of the race. Did have a minor setback leading into that race with sore feet so that was a pretty good effort. You would think he will have a lot of improvement coming off that run as well. Lightly raced, good winning strike rate, lots to like about this one. Drawn out a little is good too. Guess the only thing that bothers us is can see this one out the tail of the field as they turn for home, and it is extremely hard to win a Melbourne Cup coming from well back – for starters you are giving 10L plus to something up front, then you need to get through a capacity field of tiring runners. Looks a solid chance and suspect he will get well backed – and probably no surprise to see him win. Not sure he is for us though. Chance. 3rd W=$13.00 10-MOURAYAN is a very tough on pace stayer who looks well suited here over the Flemington 3200M. He seems to be going much better this spring, he did tend to mix his form a little last spring in his first Australian preparation. Normally rolls on the speed and he is tough as and just keeps plugging away. Can have a nasty habit of taking off mid race and running to a big lead which can stuff up your speed maps. His form had been up and down last spring and autumn, but this spring he just seems to be putting it all together. Tough on pace win here 2 starts back – and worth noting he beat the (23) that day with the same weight difference. Then really liked the run in the Mackinnon on the weekend – and that is so often a good guide to this race. He made an early move to sit just off the speed, into a tough head wind and he was very strong to the line and was making good ground off the winner. Doesn’t have the best winning strike rate around though. Did pull up mildly lame on Sat which is a worry, you really don’t want any issues at all heading into this race. He stays all day, drawn out a little, will sit on the speed and be in this for a long, long way. There does seem to be a furious speed in this though, so maybe he best chace would be in a race with no as much pace. Must for your trifectas and first fours, suspect he is definitely going to be in the finish here, just a question of whether he finds one better. Rough. SCR 17-AT FIRST SIGHT is one from the Williams stable which is going along extremely well. Overseas purchase in his first Australian preparation but has been making the grade and has stepped up this spring. Stamped himself as a genuine contender when he flew home in the Naturalism behind one of the in form stayers of the spring. Then had a virus, so was SCR from both the Turnbull and the Caulfield Stakes. Came out in the Bendigo Cup, carrying top weight and giving 4kgs to the winner, dropped out to last and came home hard with a brilliant finish. Really have to like that run and you can line up the Geelong and Bendigo Cups through stable mate TANBY who was in the finish in both of them. Drops down to a nice 52.5kgs here. Lightly raced – just the 1 win and you do wonder if he is going to be one of those horses who just flashes home too late all the time. Actually his only win was in a 2YO 1600M maiden ? He has looked the horse to follow all spring, just the setback with the virus was the issue – but he seemed to be back on song in the Bendigo Cup. He looks on the up and one of the few genuine contenders to the top weight here. 4 runs in and guess you would have just preferred he hadn’t got the virus and had the one extra run, and just a matter of whether the 6 weeks off into a 2400M race then into the Cup might bring him unstuck. But think you have to believe what you see, this is a sub standard field, he is one of the few with some upside, his last two runs have been excellent, he has the turn of foot to win this, drawn a nice barrier though would be good to see mid field rather than giving these such a big start. Strong chance. 18-MOYENNE CORNICHE is an international who has done the right thing by punters and had a run over here so we can line him up. Herbert Power run was good, he carried weight and was very strong at the end of the race. Was entered for Sat but was SCR – assume they decided he did not need the run going into the Cup. Drawn out here and probably drops a long way back, but will get to clear running at least. Question with this one is going to be the class – he has only won 2 from 26. However, he will stay the trip, he has a nice finishing burst and think the fast pace here is going to suit. Rough chance. 22-TULLAMORE is another tough on pacer stayer who has been going along well this spring. Another who has had a very long campaign – though there was a freshen mid year. Competitive run in the Caulfield Cup and usually Caulfield Cup place getters have a good record in this race cause they don’t get a weight penalty. Solid effort in the MV Cup when really badly suited under the weight scale, he was off and rolling on the home turn and the (1) was in a pocket and he looked like he might pinch the race. Probably had every chance that day to beat the (1). Is worth noting though that he meets the (1) a whopping 5kgs better off for that run and the (14) 1.5kgs better. Was entered to run Saturday, but SCR as probably did not need the run and would have been backing up 3 weeks in a row into the Cup. Drawn a nice middle barrier, will go forward and sit just off the speed here and looks likely to get the run of the race. Probably just grinds away a little and might not have the turn of foot class to win this, but almost guaranteed to be in the finish. Handles all track conditions. Lot to like about this one and he seems to be left out of calculations by many, but think he is going to get the perfect run here and should be in the finish. Chance. Place: 5-GLASS HARMONIUM is the runner in this field with genuine WFA form and think you need to respect that. Class WFA horses are always worth considering up against stayers. Has been very consistent in two preparations now in Australia. QLD winter form was excellent and has been competitive in everything he has contested this spring. 1st up run in the Makybe Diva was excellent when caught 3 wide most of the trip into a stiff head win. Got worked up before the race and over raced in the Underwood. Showed a magnificent kick in the Turnbull and the favourite really had to pull out all stops to come out and run him down. Forget Cox Plate run when he was playing up and missed the start and really should have been given more time to settle. Then came out here on Saturday and controlled the race and never looked like losing – there was a fair head wind too on Derby Day and it wasn’t that easy to lead all the way. Have to respect last start winners going into this race, have to respect WFA class runners so there is a bit to like here. Drawn barrier 23, but probably just scoots across the field here to lead. Big question here is of course going to be the 3200M staying trip – has not won past 2000M and was a beaten $1.75 favourite in the Brisbane Cup over 2400 at his only try past 2200M. Other problem is that he can get a bit worked up, big crowd and lots of noise here. Good chance he could scoot along here and set a very fast speed if he gets worked up. Considering his form the $35 on offer actually looks a little generous to us. To be honest the chances of him settling and running out the 3200M look pretty remote to us, but think he needs to go in as a place chance just cause so few in this race have any form. Place only. 7-UNUSUAL SUSPECT is an interesting runner here. Looked an unusual choice to bring down an 8 YO, 60 start horse to contest the Melbourne Cup from the US, now in local hands. First up run in the Dato Tan was pretty good, a solid fourth, at WFA. Then struck trouble early in the Cranbourne Cup and you can forgive the run. Caulfield Cup run was excellent, probably the best of those behind the place getters, he was dodging and weaving and working home really nicely. He looks to have a nice tactical turn of foot and that is important in this race to get around tiring runners in the straight. Really like the Caulfield Cup run, but just a bit worried he has only had the 3 runs this time in and the old school Bart Cummings rule is a solid 10,000 M in lead up runs. Realise the internationals don’t follow those rules, but just would have liked to see this one had the one more run to top him off. Nice barrier the speed here is likely to be very fast and he should be able to go to sleep back in the field and has the turn of foot to run into this. Seems to have been largely forgotten in most previews so likely to be a big drifter on the tote. Probably rates a solid rough chance in this race, but more towards place. Place 8-FOX HUNT is another of the international runners and we are sound asleep in bed dreaming of monster flexi first fours when these are going around. Hasn’t raced over here, and we stick to the rule of not betting on unknowns – it is tough enough betting on things you know about ! Lightly raced, winning form leading into this – and think you always need to respect last start winners going into this race. Drawn out, plenty of room should be thereabouts so let’s throw in for a place chance, but seriously you are only guessing with these foreign runners. Place 23-NIWOT is a lightly raced 7YO who has always shown a fair bit of staying ability. It is all about Flemington and the 3200M for him – oh , wait – think we know a race that could suit ? Maintains a good winning strike rate. Won the Ramsden here this track and distance during the winter - bit hard to believe that is going to be a form race for the Cup. Had a solid traditional cup campaign, just peaking at the right time. Stepped into form here 3 starts back when not far off the (10). Then we gave a good push for him at odds in the Caulfield Cup when the jockey rode him like he had no chance, hard and wide and on the speed into a head wind – he actually led around the turn before folding up , so that run was much better than it looks on paper. Ridden off the speed here on Sat in a change of tactics and as was the case in many of the races the leaders folded up quickly – he swooshed to the lead and won by a convincing margin. Not sure what to make of that – find it hard to believe he is that good and the ones that filled the placings are super ordinary. Speed on here will suit and he will run out a strong 3200M. Nice barrier and should get a nice on pace sit here. Have to respect last start winners coming into this. Just reckon there is so often a big margin in the Sat staying race and just a bit concerned that the margin has flattered this one a little bit with a lot of the favoured runners packing it in. Should get a nice on pace run though so place chance. Place. Sacking: 2-JUKEBOX JURY is a highly rated international (see general comments about international runners in the Summary section). Apparently he is pretty good, but generally with these international runners those who get the most publicity do the worse and it is the no namers that come up and do something. He is another at the top of the weights, having to give 3kgs+ to 22 runners here is a really big task cause surely one of them will be pretty good. Interesting that the trainer has been pouring cold water on him all week with “I don’t think he is suited to the race if it is run to Australian style” ??? Umm..so what did you bring it down to race ? He has beaten quite a few of these recently and is obviously highly rated. Drawn nice barrier and probably races forward here and there is a good chance of a fast speed in this with the (5) also going forward which might bring him undone. Just don’t like betting on unknowns, we haven’t see him, we don’t know how he is going, and he is giving weight to most of the field and there is a long list of high profile international runners who have flopped in this race. Prefer to risk. 4-DRUNKEN SAILOR is an international runner who plugged away just OK in the Caulfield Cup. Stable has pretty much admitted he has come back cause they didn’t have any new blood coming through, rather than on merit. Was out here last year and failed to give a yelp in the Geelong or Queen’s Cup. Does drop in weight from the Caulfield Cup run which was just OK, but had 3 runs down under now and hasn’t shown much so hard to get enthused. No 6-MANIGHAR is another of the been there, done that, not going to measure up international runners who seem to come over with a wide eyed dream of Cup glory – or more like finishing in the top ten and getting the $125,000 refund money glory. Come out here last year and went along just OK – 5th in the Caulfield Cup and 7th in the Melbourne Cup, just whacking away, both on rain affected ground. Did largely the same in the Caulfield Cup this year, Generally if you are going to win the Melbourne Cup you do it at your first attempt, those who come back in later years generally are not good enough, except maybe if you were a place getter. Blinkers first time. Drawn out probably a plus, plenty of running room but we have seen him, he just whacks away and a top ten finish is the best he can hope for. No 11-PRECEDENCE is one of Bart’s who the stable has always had a high opinion of, but he is just going utterly awful this spring. Last spring he was on the up, solid win in the MV Cup, then actually ran on really well in the Melbourne Cup (which is worth noting). Fair enough runs during the autumn, but he just hasn’t shown any signs of form what so ever this spring. 5 runs in, all have been very ordinary, probably 1st up was the only time he showed any sign of promise. Has a solid Cummings style Cup preparation. Drawn barrier 2, and he is a horse who can get worked up and not settle and don’t think being drawn inside is a plus for him. No form. No 12-RED CADEAUX is another of the internationals planning the one stop shop Cup win, which has been proven time and time again to not be the way to win this race. Has been beaten by the (2) last two starts, but does get a pull in the weights today which might make a difference. Decent win strike rate and drawn out which is a big plus for these international runners. Watch the market, but total unknown and just not worth the risk. No 2nd W=$49.60 13-HAWK ISLAND is a plodding stayer who actually has a pretty solid win strike at 7 years of age and 40 starts. Had a long hard old school preparation and there is nothing wrong with that. Flashed home nicely in the Metropolitan behind the (21) and does meet that one a handy 3kgs better off today. Failed to do anything of note in the Caulfield Cup. He is at his best on wet tracks and there should be a suitable amount of give in the ground for him on Tuesday, but he would probably want a genuine heavy track to be any chance in this. Drawn out and will drop well back here. No 14-ILLO is one of Bart’s and at eighty something years of age Bart has decided to do what all the cool kids are doing and head over seas and grab the latest, fanciest, flashiest stayers to race in the Cup. Lightly raced, good win strike rate. Sat on speed at MV in the MV Cup and went along OK. Suspect there will be a fair bit of improvement to come from there and you know that Bart knows how to get them spot on come the first Tuesday in November. Meets the (1) a solid 3.5kgs better off here, but that was a dominant win. Drawn barrier 1 here in a big field, think he can lob just behind the speed, but find it hard to get over enthused about the MV Cup run – apart from the place getters it was an extremely weak field. Prefer to see again before getting on. Passing. 15-LOST IN THE MOMENT is an international runner from the Godolphin stable who have been trying year in, year out to win this race for a fair while now. The only time they went close was with an on pace bolter. Bit surprised they haven’t followed the general rule now of giving them a lead up run in Australia before the Cup, cause that really seems to make the world of difference. Drawn inside, not sure his lead up form is that flash and likely to get cluttered up in the field here. Have to admit we do not know much about international ratings, but how do runners like this get a start ? Hasn’t won at group or listed level before. No 16-MODUN is a Godolphin international runner so just copy and paste the comments from the (15) here. Lightly raced and won 3 form 8 so obviously has some ability. Respect last start winners coming into this race. Maybe watch the market to see if they come for this one, but again, betting in the dark, so why bother ? No 19-SAPTAPADI is the stable mate of the (18), who has seriously no form at all and you have to wonder how on earth he gets a run in this race ? Unplaced last 6 runs, only win was a 2400M maiden. Two starts over here, Herbert Power and Caulfield Cup have been dreadful. Drawn wide, drops back, no chance. No 20-SHAMROCKER looked like a horse of the future in her 3YO season when she beat the males on two occasions. She just hasn’t come up this spring though and bit surprised they have persisted with her. Just an event effort 1st up, raced very erratically 2nd up , just an even effort 3rd up in the Turnbull and really didn’t show much in the Cox Plate. Pretty much nothing to recommend this one. She is a Flemington horse though and does go much better here. She is also much better on firm dry tracks which she is not going to get. Drawn wide, will have to drop back and can’t see her suddenly finding her old form out of the blue. No 21-THE VERMINATOR is a solid staying type with a good win strike rate. Jumped to the front in the Metropolitan and was full of running over the 2400M for a nice win. That race hasn’t been a particularly good guide to the Cup for a while though. Always out the back in the Mackinnon when not suited at WFA, but it was strange considering he likes to race on the speed so just wonder if that was a warm up run ? Already had 14 runs this preparation which is a very long campaign ! He has drawn inside and will go forward here and there is an awful lot of speed here, but probably at 100-1 he is some rough place chance rolling on the speed and sticking on – but there are quite a few in the same boat and not sure he is up to this. No 24-OLDER THAN TIME is one of Gai’s who is lightly raced and has a good win strike rate. Had a nice, long solid preparation but really has not shown much form, except for strong finish 2 starts back. Another on pacer who totally packed it in here on the weekend – what was the story with that ? Hard to get enthused coming off a bad run just 3 days before. Assume from a wide barrier they are going to ride him well back here and hard to see him being a factor. No Summary: Apparently having a field stuffed full of international runners that you know nothing about and have absolutely no interest in is a great spectacle and good for racing ? It really does seem it is too easy for these internationals to qualify for these races, when you think a horse like TANBY who has been in great form cannot get into the field. Not even sure we are going to have a bet ! Why bother? The traditional Melbourne Cup form pointers goes something like this, but it is very hard to follow these days when close to half the field are internationals : - normally the Caulfield Cup form is the way to go (22-TULLAMORE), though the last 10 years or so the focus has moved to the Geelong Cup with the internationals using that as their warm up run (3-DUNADEN). It will be interesting to see if the revamped Bendigo Cup steps up in its 1st year as a Cup qualifying race as a lead up race to pay attention to (17-AT FIRST SIGHT). - the old adage was follow the best run out of the Mackinnon though that seems to be less and less relevant as the years go past. Though we really did like the run of 10-MOURAYAN on Sat. - only back international horses if they have had a run over here and you can see how they are going. What’s the point in betting on unknowns ? Fortunately most of them do have a run here now which is a big bonus for punters going crazy trying to find videos of French, German and Irish form. There have been an awful lot of heavily spruiked, “will just be too good for us locals” internationals who have come out here on a one hit Cup run campaign and done absolutely nothing. - look for horses having their first try at the race. It is very rare for horses to fail one year and come back and win the next, horses normally win at their first attempt. - winning form is very important. 12 out of the last 20 winners of the Cup has won their lead up race. Normally there aren’t that many last start winners in the race either – but this year there are quite a few. It is a super tough competitive race and you need to be in peak form, and so often the horse that wins this race is on an upward spiral and is in winning form. - race mid field or better. So many stayers are drop back types, but at the end of a tough 3200M, in a field of 24 horses it is really tough to make ground and finish on with a burst. There is a good chance of a very fast pace this year. 2-JUKEBOX JURY likes to lead and 5-GLASS HARMONIUM will have to go forward from an outside barrier and is the sort who can over race and get worked up, even if they are trying to ride him quieter to run out the 3200M. So we might see the two grey horses here rolling along on the speed. The 10-MOURAYAN, 21-THE VERMINATOR, 22-TULLAMORE can all sit handy and there is just as good a chance that any of these could press forward up front as well. On a solid tempo, think you want to find something well drawn, that will get cover, will run out the 3200M and has the turn of foot at the top of the straight to get into the race. We are going to push for 17-AT FIRST SIGHT here, a horse on the way up, last two runs have been excellent. Hopefully will be racing midfield or better with cover and has the finishing burst to get into the race at the right time. Just a question mark of whether the virus set back means he might be a little undone at the end of a solid 3200M, but at around $15 think he is worth the risk. The obvious one to beat is the favourite 1-AMERICAIN, the solid tempo is going to suit, he is unbeaten in Australia and suspect he may just be a freak in Australian staying races. Always very strong at the end of his races, only question is giving 4 kgs to 22 runners – but think he is up to the task. Really once you move away from these two there are another half dozen or so winning chances. Let’s go for 10-MOURAYAN as the third pick, will roll on the speed and stick on, although the speed is likely to be fast, might lack a turn of foot, but great run on Saturday and think you need to pay attention to that. But really apart from the top two wouldn’t be surprised if any of the (18),(22), (9), (3) got up and won. 18-MOYENNE CORNICHE the best roughie, he has a nice finishing turn of foot, only Australian run was promising and the pace on here will suit. Did much prefer it when it was only local horses though, get less and less interested in this race every year as the number of internationals increase. One to risk: 2-JUKEBOX JURY 20th W=$11.10 Roughie: 18-MOYENNE CORNICHE The Key: Solid staying 3200M this year, get some cover and run the trip RESULTS : Have to be honest the more internationals start in this race the less interest there is - and worth noting that the betting pools were substantially down this year. Just impossible to bet with any confidence. The pace is slow when 5-GLASS HARMONIUM misses the jump. 14-ILLO goes to the lead, which starts super silly odds on the TAB because of the Bart factor and Cassidy seems to think he is riding MIGHT AND POWER as he dashes away from them in another bizarre ride. Super close finish, again the Geelong Cup and winning lead up form method scores another victory - but only by an eyelash. The internationals fill most of the first 10 home, but again, the ones with a lead up run here do the best, the ones with no Australian runs, the most media attention and scare factor (e.g. JUKEBOX JURY) do the worse and if an unraced international gets into the finish it is always a no namer. |
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