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Three days only - till they jump in the Cup. Deposit $50 and get a $150 Free Bet.
The standard offer is deposit $50, get a $100 free bet, but this special offer is valid for three days only and closes when they jump in the Melbourne Cup.
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| FLEMINGTON: MELBOURNE CUP - 6th Nov 2012 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 2M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Bit hard to know exactly what the weather is going to be for Cup Day. Fine and warm over Sunday and Monday, but then the showers are going to start rolling in and looks like they are going to increase as the day progresses so a lot will depend how much rain comes through before the Cup is run. The track raced very evenly on Derby Day and should continue to do so today. With a bit of rain about they might start coming off the rails in the straight, and forecast is also for a bit of wind, so often that means the racing pattern favours those running on late and those who can get cover – and makes it tough for on pacers. Down the straight it has been noticeable that even though they are coming down the middle of the track often it is the runner nearest the inside that is winning. Really important to get a clear run at them in the straight races, so maybe look to those that will race handy up front and not get cluttered up back in the field. Derby Day is normally a great day for betting with confidence – and Saturday was a bit of a disaster especially later in the day. Melbourne Cup Day is just impossible normally – so could be even worse this year if Derby Day was a guide to how the week is going to go. 20 horse fields with numerous different form lines, so just dabble, back a few long shots each way, take wide quinellas and just play for some value collects. Keep an eye on Twitter and Facebook and we will try and post some suggested big value multiples during the day. We are going to spread the bets around on lots of each way bets and quinellas for the day to keep the interest up for those wanting a dabble on Cup Day. RESULTS: Track does tend to favour those racing on the speed in most of the races around the corner. Quite a few winners got trails along the inside and switched out to win, it was very to make serious ground out wide and win. Down the straight was even though. As always on Melbourne Cup Day lots of $20 winners which makes it hard for punters, but we managed to find a few winners and score a much needed profit in the Betting Portfolio. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 8-WALK WITH ATTITUDE $4 EW 1st W=$6.50, P=$2.00 = 8.50 x 4 = $34 One of the smaller fields for the day and this one has been racing really well. Led and showed some kick here last start over the 1600M and looks suited back to the 1400M today. One of the few races where there isn’t a big field with lots of speed so from an inside barrier around the Flemington 1400M the jockey should be able to control this race. Looks a solid each way bet at around $9. RESULTS: Gets a perfect trail on the speed and jockey just grinds down the leader at odds. We use $1 Victorian TAB dividends for the results to be consistent, but there was plenty of $10 around for this one and the tote paid way under the odds. Nice each way collect. BEST WIN: Race 8: 11-ÉCLAIR SURPRISE $4 WIN 1st W=$10.30 = 10.30 x 4 = $41.20 QUINELLA: 12-TRIBAL ROCK # 1,6,8,11,13 x $1 = $5 3rd 12-TRIBAL ROCK W=$5.00 / 1st 11-ÉCLAIR SURPRISE W=$10.30 Going to back two runners in this race. The (11) showed a fair bit of ability as a 3YO but has had a fair bit of time off due to injury. Strong finisher who wants the 1800M here and the big track and they are usually running on strongly by the end of the program. Just looks like he might finally be getting back to his best based on his few runs this time in. Plus, the jockey got taken off ALCOPOP on the weekend and missed out on a Group 1, but if he wins this – he gets to meet Prince Charles ! Now there is a form line to follow. So back that one straight out, and take quinellas with the best of the on pacers the 12-TRIBAL ROCK who is fitter for the 3 runs in and didn’t have much luck last start and looks to be one on the way up. Of course, the obvious omen bet is the 6-KING DIAMOND who actually has some chance at odds. Play the royal card and hope for a collect. RESULTS: Seriously good ride from the jockey on a back maker on a track that was favouring those close to the rails, sneaking through and pulling out very late and coming with a very powerful finishing burst. Didn't miss the quinella by much either. But best of all - we predicted the news story before the day with jockey Dom Tourneur missing a Group 1 in the Mackinnon Stakes on ALCOPOP on Derby Day, but getting to meet Prince Charles today !. Why was no-one betting on that sure thing ? BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 17-BONARIA (emerg) $4 EW SCR $8 QUINELLA : Race 4 : 6,7,9,16,17 (scr) boxed x 50 cents = $5 SCR $2 We have been following this one all spring and she has given us a few nice collects. Has been going through her grades really well, and meeting the challenge every time she is stepped up in class. Fantastic run here in a stronger race last start when came with a huge finishing burst and is suited by the stack of speed in this big field and they will probably be running on well. Main problem is trying to get into the field as 1st emergency, but surely in a field of 16 something will get scratched? Back each way at around $13 and sure to be a good quinella in this field, so box up 5 runners tending toward those who are going to run on off a fast speed. RESULTS: All the other emergencies got a chance to start today - why not this one. Not fair ! QUINELLA: Race 2 : 4,6,7,8,10 boxed x 50 cents = $5 2nd 8-MABSAM W=$11.40 Just a warm up bet in the 2nd race to get the day started, trying to collect a dividend to get us on the scoreboard early. The (6) was really good last start, but just be wary who might be stronger over the 1700M which might be the (4) at odds, and the (8). The (10) the best of the on pacers to figure in the finish to score us a good start to the day. RESULTS: As per usual there is a $20 winner in this race but not one of the ones we selected. BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 7-FLYINGCONI $3 EW X Coming into the last this one looks the best chance for a get out if you need it at around $15. Again big field, stack of speed, and they should be running on at the end of the day. This one is a really strong finisher who has good Flemington form, drawn out to run on down the middle of the track and still lightly raced. Finished on really strongly 1st up and looks very well suited in this. Should come flying home and finish the day on a winning note. RESULTS: Pulls out to makes it run, but the on pacers are winning today and never looks likely down the middle of the track. BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 16-MOURAYAN $2 EW X We think this one is the best of the rough chances in the Cup, will roll on the speed and make his own luck whilst the rest are trying to get clear and he sticks on pretty well when he is right. Has winning form which is important and looks value each way at around $26. RESULTS: Gets a perfect trail and makes a run with the stable mate 14-GREEN MOON to hit the lead about 250M out - we went for the wrong Williams stable horse. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 11-PRACTICED at around $4.40 3rd W=$4.60 Suspect this one will start a lot shorter on the tote, being a Williams / Williams stable runner and he is actually one of the few with form and upside in this race. Been racing consistently, but really was beaten a long way out in the Bendigo Cup (although the winner probably goes OK), and won courtesy of a dream rails run at Caulfield. Main issue here is that he tends to drop back and he doesn’t have much tactical speed, just grinds, has drawn barrier 2 in a big field and can just seem him cluttered up for runs out the back in a big field of plodders going for Melbourne Cup consolation prizes in this staying event. RESULTS: Jockey actually got this one off the rails early and loomed like a real danger so we were lucky to get out of this Lay. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. QUINELLA: Race 7: 1,4,15,16,17 boxed x 50 cents = $5 X Might as well have a crack at the quinella in the Cup and the multiples always pay well. Though the person who lands the trifecta is not usually the form expert but the little old lady who picked out the three numbers that happened to add up to each other. The 1-DUNADEN is the one to beat, but we think the value runners here are the two on pacers, the 16-MOURAYAN, 17-MY QUEST FOR PEACE so hoping they are going to stick on into the finish and add a bit of value to the quinella around the main other dangers. RESULTS: None of the favourites figure in the Cup. Neither does our quinella RESULT: PROFIT SPENT: $50 RETURN: $85.20 NET: $+35.20 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACES. SET UP PICNIC RUG Race 2: 6-TAVARNELLE, 10-CHAMPAGNE RUBY, 4-MODEL TO NITE Race 3: 15-GARUD, 12-TANAH LOT, 8-MR LOWNDES Race 4: 17-BONARIA (emerg), 7-DETOURS, 6-WHATEVERWHENEVER, 9-ANGEL OF MERCY Race 5: 2-MALASUN, 4-SISTINE DEMON, 10-ZARZING Race 6: 8-WALK WITH ATTITUDE, 3-ANGELIC LIGHT, 5-BALACLAVA LADY Race 7: 1-DUNADEN, 16-MOURAYAN, 17-MY QUEST FOR PEACE Race 8: 11-ÉCLAIR SURPRISE, 12-TRIBAL ROCK, 6-KING DIAMOND Race 9: 20-ADAMANTIUM, 18-BIGELOW, 8-TOO MANY REDS Race 10: 7-FLYINGCONI, 9-SNITSKY, 19-LONHREIGN (emerg), 16-JUST DISCREET |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-TAVARNELLE 10-CHAMPAGNE RUBY 4-MODEL TO NITE |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 15-GARUD 2nd W=$3.80 12-TANAH LOT 8-MR LOWNDES |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-DETOURS 6-WHATEVERWHENEVER 9-ANGEL OF MERCY |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-MALASUN 4-SISTINE DEMON 10-ZARZING SCR |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-WALK WITH ATTITUDE 1st W=$6.50 *** Best Each Way of Day *** 3-ANGELIC LIGHT 5-BALACLAVA LADY |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-DUNADEN 16-MOURAYAN 17-MY QUEST FOR PEACE |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-ÉCLAIR SURPRISE 1st W=$10.30 *** Best Win Bet Of Day *** 12-TRIBAL ROCK 3rd W=$5.00 6-KING DIAMOND |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 20-ADAMANTIUM 18-BIGELOW 8-TOO MANY REDS |
| RACE 10: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-FLYINGCONI 9-SNITSKY 16-JUST DISCREET |
| RACE 7: MELBOURNE CUP 3200M GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 1-DUNADEN 16-MOURAYAN 17-MY QUEST FOR PEACE |
| Others: 15, 4, 2,14 Pace: GENUINE Leaders: 6-VOILA ICI, 13-GLENCADAM GOLD, 16-MOURAYAN Handy: 7-CAVALRYMAN, 8-MOUNT ATHOS , 10-ETHIOPIA, 11-FIORENTE, 14-GREEN MOON, 17-MY QUEST FOR PEACE, 20-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN , 24-KELINNI Back: 1-DUNADEN, 2-AMERICAIN, 3-JAKKALBERRY, 4-RED CADEAUX , 5-WINCHESTER , 9-SANAGAS, 12-GALILEO'S CHOICE, 15-MALUCKYDAY, 18-NIWOT , 19-TAC DE BOISTRON, 21-PRECEDENCE , 22-UNUSUAL SUSPECT, 23-ZABEELIONAIRE Chances: 1-DUNADEN is one classy stayer and he might just be an out and out freak of nature. We love freaks of nature. Unbeaten in 3 starts down under for a Geelong Cup, Melbourne Cup and Caulfield Cup and you really can’t do much better than that. Really tough effort to win this race last year when the (4) actually went past him and headed him and he came back again. The win in the Caulfield Cup was outstanding, to come from so far back and just launch over the top of them. He really is quite outstanding – that was one of the best Caulfield Cup wins for a long time, and you really need to respect the Caulfield Cup winner going into the Melbourne Cup. The question here is going to be the weight, up the 1kgs to 59kgs, and the top weights in this race have struggled over the years – it is pretty tough giving 5kgs or more here to over half the field. This one just has such a class turn of foot which means he can put himself into the race quickly, and jockey missed the ride on this one last year through suspension so will be looking to make amends. He is probably more of a brilliant 2400M horse so although he won last year he is probably not the best 3200M stayer in the field. Probably better on top of the ground too, so a lot is going to come down to conditions, on a firm track and a decent tempo he is the one to beat, on a softer track and a true tough 3200M maybe just tend towards others. Despite the weight rise though you just have to respect that he is a winner and rates as a strong chance. Strong chance. 2-AMERICAIN is the other class, proven stayer in this field and is backing up for his third run in this race for a win and a narrow 4th so obviously it is his thing. Won the Geelong Cup and Melbourne Cup in 2010, and was a true strong staying effort that day, though the wet track probably helped. Last spring was a huge effort to win a MV Cup when trapped on the rails around a tight turning circuit, and then just got too far back in the Melbourne Cup – and you just don’t win Melbourne Cups coming from last. Was finishing on strongly last year but they just had pinched a break on him. Transferred to a local stable, but didn’t really fire for his Australian preparation, he was in the finish most starts, but just grinding away a little too late and lacking a bit of a turn of foot. Note that all of those runs were on firm tracks. Sent back to remedial school in France and seems to have come back in great form running on very strongly in the Caulfield Cup and plenty to like about that run. Big difference here is the switch to the local jockey, so hopefully we might see a more positive ride. He is probably the best 3200M horse in the race, just think he really needs a bit of give in the ground to show his best so a lot will depend on how much rain comes, but not sure there is going to be enough. Going to start very well supported too, especially as he has a popular local jockey on board and is a name people can actually recognise in a field of so many unknown overseas names. Suspect he is going to be really well backed and probably start under the odds on the tote. Horses that run well in this race tend to run well again so almost certain to be around the finish somewhere. With some rain he is a genuine winning chance, just at the moment though slightly avoiding him as not sure he represents value. Chance. 4-RED CADEAUX was unlucky in this race last year being beaten by a pixel. It was note able that he hit the lead last year and the (1) fought back to pinch the prize. Big difference is this year is that he is already qualified so the stable don’t need to try and race him to get him into the field and they can control his preparation. Happy to consider him as he has been down here before so proven he can perform under these conditions. His form this year is quite similar to last year and it was interesting that he almost pinched this race last year at $30 – so often it is the no name over seas horses at odds that run well, rather than the highly spruiked ones – remember that when lining up those we have not seen this year. Gets a tidy 3.5 kgs from the (1) this year which is a big plus. Genuine staying type who has drawn wide, but did last year as well. On weights you have to respect as a strong chance again. Chance. 14-GREEN MOON has been showing a lot of promise over the last 2 years. Last spring he stepped right up with huge Newcastle Cup win and Caulfield Cup placing, then came back in the Autumn with classy sit and dash win here over the mile. Been set for this race very carefully and each run has been spot on target this time in. 1st up given no chance when riding tactic was to settle him back and he flashed home at a great rate. 2nd up at MV he looked to have the race in his keeping on the turn but just run out of puff a bit in the straight to just miss nailing the winner. Raced handy in the Turnbull and looked the winner a long way out and held off the stable mate. Send out favourite in the Cox Plate when very disappointing and never looked a factor. And that is the big question here – so hard to line these ones up when they are coming off bad runs, you never know if they are gone for the Spring or if it was just a anomaly and they are about to bounce back. He is really well drawn here, and he can race handy so think he is going to get the run of the race here and suspect he might poke up on the inside early in the straight and look to be part of the finish. He showed with his Newcastle Cup win that he is pretty tough sticking on, on speed. Genuine 3200M though? Despite the poor run last start, his form this spring is just about the best of the locals, he is drawn the best, likely to position the best so definitely put him in your multiples. If he bounces back then he is a genuine chance here, just hard to back with any confidence. Rough chance 1st W=$22.50 15-MALUCKYDAY is going to get a lot of support as the best of the local horses. Was going to be a stayer of the future in Spring 2010 when he strung together an impressive winning streak and was super impressive charging home to win the Lexus here in 2010, before racing really well to only be beaten by the (2) in a very strong 2010 Melbourne Cup. At least you know he will stay and run a strong 3200M. Had some long injury lay offs since then which meant he never reached his potential. Been given time and seems to be slowly getting back to form this time in. Should be right at peak now with the 4 runs in, has been set for this race and seems to be coming good at the right time. Lot to like about the way he finished off the last 100M here 2 starts back, that looked like the way he used to finish and looked like he was about to get back to his best. Hard to line up the Geelong Cup form when the pace was very slow and it did look like he was just starting to wind up again at the end of the race. Definitely a Flemington horse and a 3200M horse which are both big ticks. On his best form, he is right in this race – the question is how good the last two starts really were? Just not convinced how strong the Geelong Cup form was, and again the Bart Cummings really wasn’t that strong a form race and his opposition mediocre at best. Guess he was carrying a very big weight in that race though and does seem to be very nicely weighted in this. Nice barrier, will drop back and get lots of cover and have every chance. Goes in as a genuine chance, just a bit hard to know exactly how well he is going. 16-MOURAYAN is another Williams stable runner who is looking to feed his owner’s Melbourne Cup obsession / addiction. Been given a very light preparation for a local runner, only the 3 runs in, no run past 2400M. All three runs have been really good though racing on speed and he is a really tough bugger to run down, he just keeps sticking on. Hasn’t had a run for 4 weeks which is very unusual lead in into this and a bit of a concern. Drawn inside and likely to make his own luck on the speed here and often these ones can stick on, on speed whilst the rest are searching for runs back in the field. He is a hard tough fella who seems to thrive on racing so bit surprised they have raced him so sparingly this spring. Worth noting that last spring he won the Bart Cummings and then put in a huge performance to run 2nd in the Mackinnon and was looking like being a genuine factor in this race before pulling up lame and being scratched. Form is good, seems to like Flemington, will make his own luck, don’t be surprised if he kicks clear early in the straight here and goes for home early on speed and dares them to run him down. Jockey knows how to ride stayers and get the best out of them. Coming off winning form and starting to warm to this one at odds. Strong chance. 17-MY QUEST FOR PEACE is another international horse, but at least we have seen this one so we can line him up and make an informed opinion instead of just betting blind. Lightly raced, good win strike rate, was in winning form before coming over here which are all big ticks. Had a bit of support going into the Caulfield Cup, and his run wasn’t too bad at all – he got a cosy run on the rails and actually poked through and hit the lead just after they straightened, but just got run down by some with a more classy turn of foot. Plenty to like about that run actually, and he looked like the type that would make his own luck rolling on the speed here and stick on well. He has drawn perfectly to do that – barrier 1 – and he can get a gun run here just behind the speed and stick on in this. Firm track doesn’t seem to be an issue, has exposed form that we can line up, Caulfield Cup is always the best form for this race so think he goes in as a genuine chance in this. Probably got improvement to come from that run. Strong chance. Place: 5-WINCHESTER is an import come local who has been doing our pet hate, putting in “good Melbourne Cup trials” every start this time in. That means you finish on strongly every start during the spring, and everyone goes “ooh look at that, just a bit more ground and follow him”, only thing is come Cup Day these ones end up running about 6th so you wonder what was the point of it all. You really need to be competitive and getting into the finish to win a Melbourne Cup, not flashing from back in the field. 8 year old with solid 2400M form, but never tried at the 3200M. Really all his runs this time in have shown a lot of promise, he ran on really well late in the Turnbull and run here Saturday in the Mackinnon was pretty good as well and that is the traditional lead up for this race. Another who has drawn wide and will need to make ground from well back which is very hard to do in a tiring field of 24 runners, but should be ready to peak. We did like the runs, so guess he is a decent rough chance in this, just there were plenty of good runs in front of him in those races too. Rough chance. 10-ETHIOPIA is an extremely lightly raced local showing an awful lot of promise, but you just get the impression it is all coming up one year too soon. Then again bit hard to question the trainer who managed to get this one to win an AJC Derby at his 4th start. Only had the 3 runs in, and no run past 2000M which is a very light preparation for a traditional locally trained stayer, but guess that rule book went out the window years ago. Was working home really well in the Turnbull, and everyone saw the Cox Plate run which was excellent, working forward early against normal racing pattern and sticking on really well. Wonder if they might go forward here again? He has always looked like a horse that needed space and distance and he gets it today. Looks to have a heap of upside only that query that he isn’t quite seasoned enough for this keeps bugging us. Will probably put in a run that says “next year for sure”, and won’t be that far off. Prefer place. 12-GALILEO'S CHOICE is a Irish visitor from a stable who knows what sort of horse to bring down here and they tend to aim to bring those lightly raced ones down in the weights down here to have a crack at this race. Good win strike rate and got winning form in lead up to this which is very important. He is probably the only one of the unseen internationals we might just give a chance too cause stable knows what they are doing so watch and see if this one has any support. They are always keen to get give in the ground though, so would probably prefer some decent rain before Tuesday. Rough chance. 20-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN was all the buzz last spring but has kept a very low profile this spring and has been going along pretty well. Last spring was a bit of a disaster when highly rated and most disappointing but seemed to put it back all together again over an impressive QLD winter campaign. Had the 4 runs in, seems to be running into form at the right time, and stuck on really well in the Caulfield Cup – and the place getters from the Caulfield Cup are traditionally the ones to follow into this race. He did get a pretty easy run in that race and just had to stick on, on pace. Drawn out a bit here and think that is a bit of an issue, think she is best just rolling on the speed and she is likely to get caught wide in this. Zabeel mare and they tend to get better with time so there will be plenty making a case for this one. Probably just tending more towards a place chance, but if you like her, go for it, she has plenty to recommend her here. Place 23-ZABEELIONAIRE is a locally trained 4YO following a very traditional Caulfield Cup / Mackinnon lead up into this race, and you can hardly complain about that. In fact, he is about the only one still doing it. Had a nice long preparation and has been set for this race all along, so really the rest of the spring was just warm up runs. Just finished on OK first few runs, then run in Caulfield Cup was pretty good when not that far from the winner although he did have a cosy run along the inside all the way and they were pulling away from him at the finish. Run here in the Mackinnon on Saturday was really good – he was finishing off his race really well and that is what you want to see. Was probably a little lucky to win the SA Derby as a 3YO when jockey got dream squeeze run on the rails. Dry track form doesn’t look good – but there is a little bit of rain coming and those runs were all this preparation’s warm up runs. The big issue here is the barrier, 24, really ends up well back at the end of the field and very hard to figure in a Melbourne Cup from there. Showing signs of promise, so rough place chance only. Rough place. 24-KELINNI is a lightly raced stayer on the up and he is always worth paying strong attention to those with light weights and winning form in this race coming off the Derby Day 2500M race. Been given a long solid preparation in Sydney and has done the most kms in lead up out of any of them in this field. Well held by the (13) in the Metropolitan, but ridden a little further back here on Saturday in a race with a genuine tempo and finished full of gusto. Nice barrier here, no weight, can sit handy and make own luck so plenty to like about this one. Guess the only question mark would be how good the win was on Saturday, those who have won that race and gone on to figure here like BREW and SHOCKING and MALUCKYDAY have all been very impressive in their Saturday wins, not sure her win was of that standard. Looks OK value at around $26 and might get some backing leading into Tuesday, but although he has winning form prefer place. Place. 4th W=$20.50 Sacking: 3-JAKKALBERRY is an international runner who thankfully we have seen here so we can line him up. Went around in the Caulfield Cup when didn’t seem to have that much in the way of betting interest and really didn’t show much. Seems to be looking for a big track and the 3200M, but the good thing about these ones is that if they run we can line them up down here and really you would struggle to make a case for this one. Very big strong horse who will probably appreciate the 3200M, really not getting much of a mention in the discussions around this race, but so often it is the international with the longest odds and no publicity that actually pops up in the finish. Drawn wide, will get to race in a lot of space which is probably a good thing, but we have seen him here and hard to have on that run. No 3rd W=$58.50 6-VOILA ICI is an import come local who was showing a bit early on this spring. Good run 1st up when went forward and just couldn’t keep up over the 1400M, then gave a serious kick on the turn in the Underwood Stakes when leading and took the Cox Plate winner to sneak through a gap and run him down. Got very worked up before the Turnbull, over raced in the lead and still wasn’t that far from them in the finish, but does meet the winner of that race the (14) worse off at weights. Worked hard up front in the Caulfield Cup and gave in very quickly when might not have liked the firm track. Bit of rain about should take the edge off the track for this one. Likely to go forward here but bit worried he might get fizzed up again in front of a big crowd and the big query here is the strong 3200M. Looks more like a 2400M horse at best. Prefer to risk. 7-CAVALRYMAN is from the mighty powerful Goldolphin stable who have had so many cracks at winning this race that they barely rate a mention anymore. Years ago everyone used to be in awe of their runners, but now they are hardly acknowledged. Champion international jockey is about to leave the stable so from a fitting swan song point of view guess there is a story there to be written. Looks a tough solid 3200M type, drawn well and will probably stick on OK if they go forward. Interestingly has had very little support in the betting and it is often the ones at the longest odds out of those we have not seen down under that do the best. Sure sometimes these ones pop up into the finish, but we run by the rule that if they haven’t been down here before and proven themselves, or we haven’t see them this time in then there is no point betting on unknowns – cause you are just guessing really Passing. 8-MOUNT ATHOS has been featuring at the top of Melbourne Cup markets for months and comes from the stable who seem to have worked out what sort of horses they need to bring down here to be a chance in the big one. Has winning form leading into this which is very important, proven on firm ground, good win strike rate and drawn a nice barrier. Really very little to knock his form. But the main issue with these ones is that the ones who win this race have normally had a lead up run down here so you can line up how they are going. Just don’t see the point of betting on unknowns, there have been plenty of hyped internationals starting well backed in this race who have flopped, and just think you are better off backing something with exposed form that you can line up. Sure sometime one of these is going to come out and sting us, but we will just have to wear that as over time the pattern does favour those who have had the run down here in preparation. The best of the unseen internationals so often seems to be one of the ones at longer odds anyway, so happy to take on this one. Risking. 9-SANAGAS is an import trained by Bart and apparently he knows enough about the Melbourne Cup to get a nice shiny statue made out near the betting ring. Had the 4 runs in and really, done absolutely nothing. Guess he was only beaten < 5 lengths in the Caulfield Cup though and that was his best run this time in, so looks like he is looking for the big track and distance. Is lightly raced with a good win strike rate, but really hard to get enthused about how he is going since coming to Australia. Was beaten home in the Caulfield Cup by plenty who are going around here as well. Drawn an inside barrier, likely to drop back and can just see him getting cluttered up in a big field. No 11-FIORENTE is one of the unseen internationals which we have already commented on a few times – it is more like playing lotto than doing the form, as you can’t really tell how they have travelled and how they are going to line up so just don’t see the point betting on unknowns. Transferred to a local stable, lightly raced, you must wonder what the poor international horse must have thought when confronted with Gai’s over exuberance for the first time. Got a few gear changes, the stable haven’t even had him run so just seems to be double the unknowns about this one and jockey has had a poor couple of weeks with the Derby favourite flopping. Drawn inside and likely to go forward, but hard to see him being a factor here. Passing.2nd W=$42.00 13-GLENCADAM GOLD is the highly rated Sydney runner from the Waterhouse stable who was in flying form before coming down for the Caulfield Cup, starting favourite and being really disappointing. Import come local, who was undefeated in Sydney this time in with dashing front running rides. Question is how strong that form is, but guess the (24) came out and won here on Saturday which now makes it look better. Did get taken on in the lead at Caulfield, but still, really didn’t give much at all. Drawn a nice barrier here, likely to go the lead again, lightly raced , good win strike rate so guess you could make a case for it. Regular jockey goes back on board too which might make a difference. Had a slight injury niggling problem which is reported to be resolved, but you do need to be 100% for this race. Bit hard to back with any confidence though coming off a bad run, and you would just think he might struggle over the 3200M today, especially trying to lead when the pressure comes on a long way out. Passing. 18-NIWOT is a tough local stayer who loves the big track here at Flemington and also loves the delicious calzone they serve in the eatery under the Hill Stand. Had the 4 runs in, traditional Melbourne Cup preparation, hasn’t actually done that much but they have mainly been in unsuitable WFA races. Stuck on OK in the Turnbull here 2 starts back, and only fair at best in the Caulfield Cup. 3 times winner at Flem and 2 times winner over the 3200M. But he just seems to want give in the ground and doesn’t look like he is going to get the going to suit. Ran 8th in this race last year with much better form and less weight and really if they don’t win it the first time around they won’t in following years. Top ten finish is the best he can hope for. No 19-TAC DE BOISTRON is another of the international runners who come through the Geelong Cup a bit battered and bruised but didn’t show much to recommend it. Geelong Cup was ran at a dawdle which probably did not suit, but he does seem to prefer genuinely wet ground and it looks unlikely to be that much rain at this stage. Lovely fancy French name must be going down really well in posh Werribee. Drawn wide, will drop back, looks a real wet track grinder on form so will probably stay the distance but this is why we like them having a run down here first so we can line them up. He ran, he ran poorly, so we are quite happy to leave him out here. No 21-PRECEDENCE is one of Bart’s who has been around for a while now and he goes along OK without winning out of turn. Tends to drop back and run on, needs a solid speed up front, a bit of luck and a dry firm track. Had a long hard preparation with 2 x 2400M runs this time in which means he will be hard and fit for a tough slog here. Drawn out here and likely to drop back. His win at MV 2nd up was his first win in 2 years and he was lucky to strike a pretty weak race there. Really his form this time in hasn’t been too bad, he has been running on well when the conditions suited. Went wide and early in the MV Cup to hit the lead before the turn and look the winner but struggled to maintain the run in the straight. Main issue is that he has contested two Melbourne Cup and two Sydney Cups and struggled to make it into the first half of the field in all four runs, although he did run on OK in this race in 2010, but was beaten a distance. Just looks outclassed here. No 22-UNUSUAL SUSPECT is an old timer from the US who we have seen here before last spring. His form last spring was actually really good, he was just about the best run in the Caulfield Cup last year finishing on strongly when struggling to get clear room. Then put in a huge run in last year’s Melbourne Cup threading through the field from close to last and finishing on solidly. His form last year was actually quite promising. Did nothing though when taken back overseas, and bought back here to local stable for another Australian preparation and really hasn’t done anything at all to get enthused about. Although he ran on well 1st up, his three runs since then have been utterly awful and often in weaker races. Drawn an outside barrier and will drop well back and just can’t have on form. No Summary: Well where do we start here ? It does really all look a bit too hard doesn’t it ? We are going to be up front and say we preferred the Cup of old when you could line up the form and bet with confidence, but you just have so many unknowns in this field in terms of internationals we have not seen. It was worth noting that betting turnover was well down on the Cup last year, so it will be interesting to see what happens this year, but for the bigger punters it must be hard to bet with any confidence when you don’t have exposed form you can line up. Probably the best way to try and sort all those out is to go through the list and see who ticks the important boxes of what we want and what we don’t want. - Form. It is really important to have real form going into a tough Group 1 feature like this. That means being right in the finish of your lead up runs, winning a race this time in, and even better wining your last lead up race. You really need to be at the top of your game, it is all well to be running on for nice 5ths and 6ths in “good Melbourne Cup trials”, but these horses invariably come out on the big day and run 5th or 6th again. Look back over the last 20 winners – 12 have won their lead up run, and 15 have been in the first three home in their lead up run. Normally there are only a few last start winners going into this race as well – so look for form – real form. - Caulfield Cup. The Caulfield Cup is always the best form reference for this race, though the Geelong Cup has been a strong factor recently, but that race was a bit of a non event this year. So watch the Caulfield Cup finish, pick out the best runs and follow them. - Internationals. The field is stacked full of internationals this year, but really, the pattern has been that the ones that win this race are the ones that we have seen, we know they have settled in, we know they handle local racing conditions and most importantly we can line up their form. We really don’t see the point on betting on unknowns, you are just guessing, so unless they have had a lead up run here, or have been down here before and ran well then just don’t bother. Of these unknowns, the ones that run the best are always the ones at long odds, with no spruik on them regardless, there is an extremely long list of highly spruiked internationals who have flopped in this race and you really do wonder where people get the money to keep backing them. - Position in running. It is really hard to win a Melbourne Cup coming from last, trying to dodge 23 other runners that are going up and down in the one spot, else give a decent head start to something that is going to stick on. Tactical speed is really important, and if you are looking for value place getters look for those well drawn that will race handy and plug away in the straight. There has been a lot of talk about there not being much speed in the race this year, but when that happens everyone decides to go forward and you end up with a genuine speed regardless. 6-VOILA ICI, 13-GLENCADAM GOLD, 16-MOURAYAN most likely to go forward, though guess they won’t want to go too quick on the (6) and the (13) as these two knocked each other out in the Caulfield Cup. Plenty who will sit handy to these 17-MY QUEST FOR PEACE, 20-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN , 24-KELINNI the most likely from their barriers to be just behind the speed. Despite the weight, and despite history being against him just think you have to stick with 1-DUNADEN here. In winning form, coming off one of the best Caulfield Cup wins in recent times and you just have to respect those with outstanding form coming into this race. Ticks all the boxes for this race and although there is a lot of talk about the record of topweights and horses carrying weight most of them weren’t going as well as this one. Jockey gets a chance to atone for missing the ride on this one last year. Looks the one to beat, prefer the track to stay firm though. We went up and down the field quite a few times, and surprised us a little but one started to stick out at odds and that was the 16-MOURAYAN, who will get a very nice run on the speed here, always sticks on really well and might just boot clear early in the straight here and dare them to run him down. Has winning form, and was going really well going into this race last year when scratched. 17-MY QUEST FOR PEACE the other on pacer to consider, stuck through and hit the lead in the Caulfield Cup on the turn and likely to make his own luck on the speed. But stack of other chances, definitely 2-AMERICAIN (but maybe poor value), 4-RED CADEAUX and probably 15-MALUCKYDAY the best of the roughies in this race. Actually after all that, all we really wanted was to get three numbers that added up, which is the key to any Cup trifecta – so 1 - 16 - 17 it is. Good luck ! One to risk: 8-MOUNT ATHOS 5th W=$7.50 Roughie: 5-WINCHESTER, 15-MALUCKYDAY The Key: Winning form, competitive form in lead up runs. RESULTS: Despite not picking the winner the same points keep popping up year after year. You need real form to be competitive in the Melbourne Cup. The most highly spruiked unseen internationals always disappoint. The no name internationals at long odds are often the ones that fill the trifecta. And most important of all - you need to take 3 horse box trifectas that add up ! In this case, a whopping $45,000 for 14-11-3. The track does seem to be favouring on pacers and interesting that two of the inside 5 barriers have fought out the race. 14-GREEN MOON gets a perfect on pace sit and sprints clear, but not sure he is a genuine 3200M horse, they were closing on him on the line. 8-MOUNT ATHOS too far back and running on really well late against the day's racing pattern, and 24-KELINNI good late and probably one to follow next year. |
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