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| FLEMINGTON: MELBOURNE CUP - 5th Nov 2013 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Probably the best weather we have had for Cup week for some time. Wish we could say the same about the tips. Few showers around Sunday and Monday, but fine weather for Tuesday and we should get a perfect DEAD(4) track with the chance of an upgrade. This track should remain pretty firm most of this week so keep that in mind when doing the form. Interestingly here they have kept the rail in the TRUE position from Saturday, normally the rail goes out 2M. Normally you get pretty even racing on Cup Day, but as the day wears on they tend to come off the rails a bit, and you would think that is going to happen sooner today with the rail staying TRUE. However, it was also noticeable that the on pacers on the rails were very hard to run down on Saturday and our suspicion is that racing pattern may remain for today. Down the straight, well, have absolutely no idea why they wanted to come down the middle of the track on Saturday, and they are likely to do the same again today – the straight races of capacity fields trying to plot a narrow course down the middle of the track are going to get extremely messy. The wider runners tended to win on Saturday so maybe look for outside barriers down the straight. Normally we issue a warning saying what a ridiculous day Melbourne Cup day is to have a bet. This year appears to be just about the worse ever ! Capacity fields, hundreds of different form lines, so no serious betting, play with some roughies, go wide in quinellas and trifectas and watch the $20 plus winners and $10,000 plus trifectas roll in. Especially love the 24 horse down the straight sprint Race 9, where they are all going to try to come middle or wider, and where there is hardly any speed ! Good luck with that one. Spreading it around with lots and lots of small bets in the betting portfolio. RESULTS: Track races very evenly and they can run on from the back and win. Down the straight best ground is right down the middle though horses keep getting up on the inside of the track. Struggle to find a winner in the tips, but kick off the day with a monster roughie $50 shot as top pick who runs 3rd. BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 12-SEVILLE $4 EW X Quite keen on this one each way in the Melbourne Cup, one of the Williams Six, and have seen quite a few other tipsters pushing him so doesn’t look like we are the only ones. Run in the Cox Plate is much better than it looked as he loomed up out wide on the turn before fading, and everything in the finish there raced on speed or cut the corner. Wining form before that, but the really outstanding run was here last year in the Turnbull when he almost beat the eventual Cup winner. Stable have been very patient with him and you just get the impression he is about to reach career peaks. Good barrier, will sit on speed and probably hit the lead half way down the straight so give you a good run for your money too. Each way at around $17 but suspect this one will get backed. RESULTS: Never looks likely. Very disappointing. BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 17-BALACLAVA LADY $3 EW X QUINELLA: Race 4: 17-BALACLAVA LADY, 3-KOONOOMOO, 8-ASSERTIVE EAGLE boxed x $2 = $6 X Pretty good quality race and lots of in form mares in this, but don’t forget to look down into the emergencies as well. This one definitely gets a start now with a scratching. Fitter for the 3 runs in, drawn a nice barrier, can sit on speed over Flem 1400M which is a plus and last run here was much, much better than it looks on paper when was left without cover from an outside barrier, loomed very wide into a headwind in the straight but died on the run. Ridden a bit quieter here from a good barrier suspect she is going to improve at odds today and worth noting she should have won the 3YO filly 1400M race this day last year when she got stuck for runs on the rails. Plenty of good mares in this and you can make a case for the 3-KOONOOMOO who won this race last year and is going just as well this year and the 8-ASSERTIVE EAGLE who just got shuffled too far back last start but was coming very hard on the line. Box these up in a quinella which should pay well in a big field, but think you will get $20 plus about the top pick here. RESULTS: This race is dominated by the swoopers and our on pacers are quickly beaten. BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 8-SUCH HOPE $4 EW X Been racing well, fitter for the 3 runs in and has been finishing on hard a few times this preparation. Finally gets onto a big track and out to a more suitable distance and there is a fair bit of speed in this race so suspect this will suit him running on late. Each way to finish a long, long day at around $11 and at the very least means we have a chance of a get out if we need it. RESULTS: Every chance, never in the finish. BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 6-THAT’S THE ONE $3 EW X Very frustrating horse to follow as he keeps running on late without winning with startling finishing bursts, but just needs to find the right race and the right conditions. Today might be the day. Drawn an outside barrier but they were winning out wide on Saturday down the straight, issue may actually be if they all head out wide and he struggles to get a clear run at them. Has actually been racing really well this time in , flying home 1st up, badly held up for runs when finishing on 2nd up and flying home again in a race where the leaders kicked last start. 3 times Flem winner too. Only wee concern is that there actually isn’t much speed in this sprint race so maybe save on something on speed drawn middle – if you can work out who that is. But happy to go each way here at around $13. RESULTS: Runs on out wide but never figures. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 8-ROOP ALL $3 WIN 2nd W=$9.60 QUINELLA: Race 6: 8-ROOP ALL #1,5 x $2 = $4 2nd 8-ROOP ALL W=$9.60 / 3rd 5-POLITENESS W=$4.40 Only had the 2 starts but looks to have some ability and is a bit fresher than some of these. Blinkers go on today and should have plenty of improvement to come. Back straight out at around $10 and take quinellas with the other chances, the talented but expensive to follow (5) and the (1) who might be suited finally getting to a soft rolling on speed 1400M here. RESULTS: Leaves it very, very late but finishes extremely strongly to just miss. Keep following this one, he is on the way up. BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 5-REMEMBA HOWE $2 EW 3rd W=$45.60, P=$10.00 = 2 x $10 = $20 When we say rough, we mean like, really, really rough – currently at around $61. Best form is on wet tracks but hopefully the track will still retain some give early in the day. Tried hard behind a smart one 2 starts back and then there was a fair bit of pressure up front last start when tried over 2000M. Doesn’t win out of turn, but last two Flem runs were a 3rd and a 4th beaten < 2 lengths. The main reason why we like her though is that she has drawn a good barrier, early in the day, and will race on speed here in a big field where there actually isn’t that much speed. Bravely go for a cheap thrill with a rank outsider as your 1st bet of the day. Good luck ! RESULTS: Massive roughie and W=$81, P=$17 was available on Betfair before she got backed in. Good sit and stuck on well to just get her nose in for 3rd at super long odds. Started the day so well, shame we couldn't turn a profit. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 3-MODERATE at around $2.20 1st W=$2.00 LAY OF THE DAY: Race 8:5-SALON SOLDIER at around $2.50 1st W=$2.80 You could probably just sit back and lay the favourite in every race today in big fields, doubt there will be many favourites saluting and really not interested in backing anything under $5 today. The two who look the silliest odds are Race 6: 3-MODERATE at around $2.20 and Race 8:5-SALON SOLDIER at around $2.50. Both are Sydney horses in wining form, and are in smallish fields with not much depth, but it is just utter madness to go taking short prices on Cup Day – and even on Derby Day a string of short priced favourites went down. Suspect both will drift well towards $3 and over anyway, so you can lay them now and if you change your mind, always back them again later. RESULTS: Two lays for two wins - now that is a new record. Both faced weaker fields with scratchings, but really, not that interested in backing favourites on Melbourne Cup Day regardless. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. QUINELLA: Race 2: 1,5,7,8,15,16 boxed x $5 = 33% 2nd 8-MINNIE DOWNS W=$10.90, 3rd 5-REMEMBA HOWE W=$45.60 There was always lots of $100 plus quinellas on Cup Day, so we like to just keep it simple and take wide 6 and 7 horse box quinellas. Race 2 is wide open and there should be some big dividends, especially if our super roughie gets into the finish. Main chances are (1),(7),(8),(15) but throw two good value roughies the (5) and the (16) into the mix and see how we go. Of course, invariably when you land these bets you also land the trifecta and the first four and end up even more frustrated for not taking those instead. RESULTS: Not far off a collect here, the favourite wins, but our value chances and our super roughie are right in the finish. SPENT: $50 RETURN: $20 NET: $-30 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. PICK RANDOM NUMBERS. Race 2: 5-REMEMBA HOWE, 15-CRIMSON LADY, 7-NOTICE RECEIEVED Race 3: 7-JUNOOB, 20-LIKE A CAROUSEL (emerg), 9-MUJADALE, 12-FABRIANO Race 4: 17-BALACLAVA LADY, 3-KOONOOMOO, 8-ASSERTIVE EAGLE Race 5: 12-SELECTIFY, 7-DIAMOND OASIS, 5-ANATINA Race 6: 8-ROOP ALL, 5-POLITENESS, 1-BULBULA Race 7: 12-SEVILLE, 22-DEAR DEMI, 7-FORETELLER Race 8: 3-RAIN DRUM, 4-GRIS CARO, 12-GIRL GONE ROCKIN Race 9: 6-THAT’S THE ONE, 21-NEAREST TO PIN, 2-BROKEN Race 10: 8-SUCH HOPE, 1-HENWOOD, 13-BRADMAN |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-REMEMBA HOWE 3rd W=$45.60, P=$10.00 *** Best Roughie of The Day *** 15-CRIMSON LADY 7-NOTICE RECEIVED |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-JUNOOB 20-LIKE A CAROUSEL 2nd W=$22.90 9-MUJADALE 1st W=$17.10 *** nice value winner *** Quinella : $209.70 *** Huge 3 horse box quinella *** |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 17-BALACLAVA LADY 3-KOONOOMOO 8-ASSERTIVE EAGLE |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-SELECTIFY 7-DIAMOND OASIS 5-ANATINA |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-ROOP ALL 2nd W=$9.60 5-POLITENESS 3rd W=$4.40 1-BULBULA |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-SEVILLE 22-DEAR DEMI 7-FORETELLER |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-RAIN DRUM 4-GRIS CARO 12-GIRL GONE ROCKIN SCR |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-THAT’S THE ONE 21-NEAREST TO PIN 2-BROKEN |
| RACE 10: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-SUCH HOPE 1-HENWOOD SCR 13-BRADMAN |
| RACE 7: THE MELBOURNE CUP 3200M GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 12-SEVILLE 22-DEAR DEMI 7-FORETELLER |
| Others: 6,15,24, 8 Pace: GENUINE Leaders: 11-MOURAYAN, 24-RUSCELLO Handy: 2-GREEN MOON, 4-SEA MOON, 5-BROWN PANTHER, 6-FIORENTE, 9-ETHIOPIA, 10-FAWKNER, 12-SEVILLE, 13-SUPER COOL, 16-ROYAL EMPIRE, 19-SIMENON , 21-VEREMA , 23-TRES BLUE Back: 1-DUNADEN, 3-RED CADEAUX, 7-FORETELLER, 8-DANDINO, 14-MASKED MARVEL, 15-MOUNT ATHOS, 17-VOLEUSE DE COEURS,18-HAWKSPUR , 20-IBICENCO , 22-DEAR DEMI Chances: 6-FIORENTE is the current favourite and last year’s runner up and really is the most obvious pick in a very even field. Startled with huge 1st run in Australia last year when chased hard behind the (2) in last year’s Cup. Set for this race since then and really has been on course pretty much the whole way. This spring he was held up for most of the straight 1st up in the Memsie, then zoomed past the whole field to win the Dato Tan whilst most of those inside him found trouble, and tried to do it again in the Turnbull when really just gave them too much of a head start and was storming home late again. Drew an outside barrier in the Cox Plate and jockey bravely or foolishly (still not quite sure) drove him forward and he had a hard run on speed and fought hard the whole way, but the lightly weighted 3YO was too much for him. Really the perfect Cup preparation has done very little wrong, has actually been genuinely in the finish and has won a race on the way. Drawn a good barrier too, gun jockey goes back on board, just looks the one to beat. Won’t drop back anywhere near as far today and should get a great on speed sit here from the barrier – and will be out and running in the straight whilst those at the back of the field are looking for runs or being held up and giving this one a big head start. So much to like – maybe he is just under the odds though in a very even field and probably doesn’t start much value on the tote. Usually horses that win this race do so at their first attempt too. Question mark might be how much of a gut buster the Cox Plate run was, and whether he really does run a strong 3200M – last year they didn’t go that quickly. Definitely the one to beat though. 1st W=$7.00 7-FORETELLER is one we have a lot of time for and great to see him having a crack at this race. Hopelessly under rated, even by his own stable and keeps going around and starting at good odds. Had a huge Autumn, running across three states and being in the finish of several feature races. Firm track a big plus for this one. This time in he has been flying, finished hard off a fast pace 1st up, 2nd up he tracked a good horse here and nabbed him on the line, forget the 3rd up run in the Underwood when nothing made ground and then chased hard behind the best horse in Australia in the Caulfield Stakes. Was coming home hard again at the end of the Cox Plate. Have to respect those with WFA form going into this race and he has recent WFA winning form Many suspect he doesn’t stay, and guess the jury is still out on that, and he has only been tried past the 2000M once in the BMW during the Autumn. He was finishing on solidly that day, on an slow track which isn’t his thing and was beaten < 2L so was rather surprised to see the jockey jump off after and declare “he doesn’t stay”. Drawn out a little here and main concern would be how far he drops back. Very under rated, has class , has ability, has a WFA turn of foot and more importantly you just have to respect WFA form into this. Go well. 12-SEVILLE is one we have some time for and suspect is the one out of the Williams Six that will get backed. Always takes a while to run into form, he needs a few runs and distance and didn’t really start to warm up till the Naturalism when worked home well. Got perfect on speed sit in the Metropolitan and didn’t have to go around a runner. Cox Plate run was actually really good – he loomed out wide before the turn like he was going to run into it, but couldn’t go on. Nothing came out wide and got into the finish that day, and the first four home in that race either stuck to the rails or cut the corner – so think it was a great run. The run we really like though was his run in the Turnbull Stakes last year at long odds when he came out and almost ran down his more favoured stable mate – who then went onto win last year’s Cup. Has drawn a nice barrier, will settle right on the speed, which doesn’t look hectic, has the gun staying jockey on board backing up from Derby win on Sat and just looks like he is going to get the run of the race here. Should stay the trip too. Maybe just query is that he has only won 2 from 19 which isn’t the best win strike rate. Think he is going to be in this for a long way though and you should get a great run for your money. Strong chance. 15-MOUNT ATHOS is another international runner attempting to win this race without a local run in lead up. At the very least we have seen this one down here before and know that he copes with the trip, the local food and the 100,000 strong Flemington Cup Day crowd. Well beaten by the (5) 2 starts back. Had 2 starts over the 3200M and yet to place, though one of those runs was his run in this race last year – which was sensational. In a slowly run Melbourne Cup last year he was worse than mid field on the turn, struck some trouble and then was coming home with an extremely impressive eye catching finish down the middle of the track late. Think you have to rate him in this based on that run alone. Firm track no issue. Question is going to be the outside barrier here, it is nearly impossible to win a Melbourne Cup coming from last, giving half the field a massive head start and having to dodge 20 or so other tired horses. But if anyone can pull it off it is jockey Williams whose record in these races is sensational. Think he is slightly under the odds at the moment though in a very open field. Chance, just not sure he represents value with this barrier. 3rd W=$12.10 22-DEAR DEMI is a super tough and super consistent mare and has a great possible career post racing flogging life long frying pans or the like. For a 4YO mare in her spring season 28 starts is pretty much unheard of, let alone a string of feature 3YO staying races across multiple states. But she just keeps on putting in and seems to thrive on hard racing. Won the Oaks here last spring after being unlucky in the Wakeful. Thereabouts in a stack of 3YO filly staying races over the autumn and winter. Really has done close to nothing wrong this spring – flashed home 1st up here over 1400M, stuck on really well on speed behind two top liners in the Underwood and caught up back in the pack in a bunched finished in the Turnbull. Ridden for luck from outside barrier in the Caulfield Cup and looked the winner about 200M out when she loomed up along the rails and drops 2kgs from that run. Eye catching run here again in the Mackinnon on Saturday when was held up for runs back in the pack and leader pinched a break but was coming home hard with gusto along the rails. Drawn outside here, suspect they will settle about midfield and she just seems to have a knack of finding the runs in tough circumstances. Jockey has won the Melbourne Cup before, served jail time overseas and had a cancer battle so going to be a huge story if he wins today. Has close to the best form in this race – Caulfield Cup place getter, Mackinnon Stakes place getter, has no weight and had a solid traditional Cups preparation and just keeps on trying. Looks a great chance and think she is well over the odds in this. Strong chance. 24-RUSCELLO has been a very late bloomer this spring, just two starts ago was racing in an 84 rating race, and today he is in the Cup field. Nice all the way win on Saturday in the Lexus / SAAB / Hotham /Dalgety / Race That Changes Name Every Other Year. Really tough effort on Saturday to win as the 2nd place getter looked to have his measure a long way out. 2nd before that at Caulfield was similar effort, big weight, but very tough sticking on, on speed. Just looks like he will stay all day and only lightly raced with a good win/place strike rate. Winning form going into the Cup is really important and he is one of the very few ticking that box. That Saturday 2500M race always seems to throw up a good value, lightly weighted in form chance into the Cup, and they have gone pretty well the last couple of years with KELINNI running 4th last year, MALUCKDAY running 2nd in 2010, and SHOCKING winning in 2009. Actually so that’s the last 4 winners of that Saturday race have run 1st, 2nd and 4th when backed up into the Melbourne Cup - which is a very strong record. Probably those wins were more impressive though and the fields were better quality than this one beat on the Saturday. Drawn outside is the main issue here, this one seems a great front running stayer, so will have to work to go forward here, but there doesn’t seem to be that much other speed so he might be able to get across ? Listen for race tactics and check they are going forward. Just seems to be on the up, no weight, will stay all day and if he can get across to the lead suspect he is going to go pretty well here at odds. Good rough chance. Place: 2-GREEN MOON is last year’s winner and pretty rare to have two previous Cup winners in the same field. Been set for this race all year just like he was last year and stable has been on fire recently with setting their horses for the feature races. His form last year was better, he won the Turnbull Stakes before flopping in the Cox Plate, but his biggest asset is that he can take a nice on pace sit and has a WFA style turn of foot which is what won him this race last year. He is drawn to get the same run this year too. Is carrying 57.5 kgs this year though compared with the 54.5 kgs last year. Form this time in hasn’t quite been as good, he ran on well 1st up in the Memsie, then nothing made ground anyway in the Underwood, but missed the run in the Caulfield Stakes with a minor setback before putting in a pretty similar run in this year’s Cox Plate. Form last year was better though, and the big difference is that he had the 4 runs in last year, and won one, and placed in one, whereas this year he has missed a run and had only the 3 runs in. Just think missing a run is a big deal going into a big feature like this. Note blinkers on first time here. Loves Flemington, 3 timers winner here and drawn to get a perfect run again with the same jockey on board, but with the weight rise and set back prefer as a place chance only this year. Place. 3-RED CADEAUX is another who has proven himself over here and whilst we tend to avoid internationals who we haven’t seen start over here this preparation, you can make a case for him as at least he has proven he can make the trip and handle the style of racing down here. Placed 3 from 5 over the 3200M including the narrowest of defeats in this race in 2011. Well beaten by the (17) last start in Ireland. In 2011 the finished 2nd with 53.5kgs at long odds with form that was only fair, and his form was actually better last year when he ran on for 8th in a slowly run Melbourne Cup carrying 55.5kgs. Note that they have gone for an overseas jockey this time instead of Rodd. Form this year is probably the worse out of his three tries and up again in weight. Drawn outside probably not a big issue with this one as he likes to drop back and run on – but he needs them to go fast enough to let him do that. Going to start very appealing odds for a horse that has almost won this race and think considering his excellent 3200M record he is worth a good long short place chance for trifectas. Place. 2nd W=$38.80 8-DANDINO is an international runner who we have at least seen over here and put in a huge effort to come from well back to run 2nd in the Caulfield Cup in a race where they didn’t go that quickly. Always have to respect Caulfield Cup in form place getters going into this race, and very consistent performer having been in the first two home in 9 out of his 11 last starts – that is a pretty impressive record. Note that jockey Williams has jumped off though to go on the (15). Firm track no issue for this one. Seems to be a very similar type to the (1) who won this race in 2011 and similar colours and name too – for what that is worth. Actually would be a horror race call if the two yellow colours 1-DUNADEEN and 8-DANDINO go head to head to fight out the finish, just try saying their names quickly. Drawn inside here, just wonder if he is going to settle more handy here or drop back again? Listen for riding tactics. Would be a bit concerned if they try to drop back in a big field along the inside here, would need plenty of luck. International jockey on board. Question mark here is going to be the 3200M, never tried the distance and does appear to be more of a 2400M horse. But have to respect really good recent form and Caulfield Cup run, just might need some luck in the run. Rough chance. 16-ROYAL EMPIRE has come into this with close to no publicity at all, and really needs to have a word to his agent. Didn’t even know he was in the field. However, it is normally the no-namers of the internationals that run the best in this race and at long odds. Another lightly raced one with a really good win/place strike rate, and looks like the firm track is no issue. Good barrier too and probably won’t settle too far back in this. Yet to be tried past 2700M. Stable has been trying to win this race for over 20 years now and surely the rules of random probability suggest they will eventually land one. Local jockey on board, good barrier, think you just throw him in the placings as often the rougher outsider internationals are the ones who fill the trifectas and first fours. Place. 19-SIMENON is an international with an unusual preparation having just the one local run in the Herbert Power 4 weeks ago. At least we have seen him go around over here. That run had some merit too, he loomed up like the winner half way down the straight ,but they hadn’t gone that quickly in front and he couldn’t continue to make ground. Not sure of the strength of that race though. He is a 7YO who has had 32 starts, more than many of the younger fresher internationals attempting this race for the 1st time, but has a very solid 3200M record, 2 times winner and 4 times placing. Nice barrier here too and drops in weight, should be able to sit on the speed here and get the gaps at the right time. Really like that he has solid 3200M form. Not sure he is good enough to win this, but worth putting in for a place, as the only Australian run did show some promise. Place 4th W=$26.70 21-VEREMA is another international who is lightly raced with a good winning strike rate and importantly has wining form going into this race. Looks a solid staying type too with lots of form around the 3100M which is close enough to 3200M. Wish we could run that far. Drawn an inside barrier here and probably won’t drop too far back, though note she has been running in very small fields so a field of 24 might be a little confronting. Stable have won this race before with AMERICAIN, but both his Cup runs he had lead up runs in Australia – interesting that they didn’t choose to follow the same pattern with this one? Looks a strong staying type, should get a cosy run and stick on pretty well in the straight. You need to throw some internationals in for your trifectas and this one looks a likely 2nd to 6th suspect. Place. Sacking: 1-DUNADEN won this race in 2011 by a pixel, the short possible margin in racing. That was coming off an impressive win in the Geelong Cup. Showed he did rather like this racing down under caper with a last to first win in the Caulfield Cup last year without a lead up run over here, but struck trouble when favourite in this race last year and finished well back. Different preparation this year coming into this without a local run – you would have thought if it has worked in the past you would do it again? Note Craig Williams have jumped off to ride the (15), but international jockey won here on Saturday in the Mackinnon. Firm tracks no issue for this one and has proven himself over here before. Probably better at the 2400M and slightly suspect at a strong staying 3200M despite being a previous Cup winner. The main problem here is the one barrier, for a drop back and run on horse, and he normally comes down the outside with a clear crack at them, and the top weight. Going to start good odds this year and will probably be not that far away, but prefer to let him run this time. No 4-SEA MOON is one of the all singing, all dancing, Williams stable family troupe. Purchased to race over here with a huge reputation and hasn’t quite lived up to the expectations. Got totally smashed in betting at 1st Australian start in the Makybe Diva to start favourite, but face planted shortly after the start and that was the end of that. Nothing made ground in the Underwood so forgive that run, and then really set a D-Day when dropped back in class to the Bart Cummings when he was first past the post, but lost the race on protest. Tough slogging effort with a big weight that day, but the jockey had to really get into him to move him along and he only just got past two far inferior stayers. Pretty similar run in the Hebert Power, big weight, stays all day, but really needed to be hard ridden to get the best out of him. Extremely hard to work out how he is going, sure he has been carrying really big weights, but he has been struggling to beat much weaker opposition and just concerned how much riding he has needed to show his best – like they are really forcing him into the finish. Drops in weight here but still up towards the top of the weights. Nice barrier and he did go forward last start, so they might try to race him on speed and let him whack away, he does look like he stays all day. Winning form going into the Melbourne Cup is very important too and he does tick that that box. Not sure he is going to like the big field, not sure he has the tactical speed to take runs. Just can’t get over enthused about how he is going and prefer to let him run today. No 5-BROWN PANTHER has a pretty slick name, they just need to throw an “Ace” or a “Stud” in there as well to really snazz things up. Actually he sounds like the name of one of those personalised number plates. He is one of the more spruiked international runners, having his 1st trip down under and attempting to win this without a local lead up run which hasn’t been a very successful path to winning the Cup over the last 20 years at all. Good barrier, recent international winning form, international jockey, guess watch the market, but we run by the rule of no point betting on unknowns, so if they haven’t raced down here so we can line them up then happy to pass. Rumour has it connections will jump the fence rather than pay the entry free. Risking. 9-ETHIOPIA has always shown so much potential but just hasn’t been able to get into this race in peak form – or any form for that matter. Only ever won the one race – the ATC Derby at only his fourth start which stamped him as one with great potential. Set for this race last year so his early runs were just warm ups, and surprised in last year’s Cox Plate when he sat on speed and stuck on really well. Then sat handy in this race last year but dropped out quickly when injured. Been running in unsuitable WFA races this time in so hard to line up exactly how he is going, but worth noting his treatment notes from the Caulfield Cup run. Best run of this campaign on Saturday here when he loomed up like he was going to run into it, but just raced with his head on the side and didn’t quite seem to want to stretch out which is unusual for him. Gets a nice weight drop from that race. Just a bit worried about him backing up from Sat on two firm tracks, you just wonder giving the way he raced on Saturday if he has a few issues and you really want them 150% right for this race. Drawn out a little but suspect he goes forward here but hard to get enthused about how he is going. No 10-FAWKNER is yet another runner decked out in navy, which is all the rage amongst the fashion elite, so make sure you suss out which cap is which so you can follow the right runner if you back one of them. Bit of a surprise packet late in the spring, best known as a really solid 1600M dry track miler, but stable set him for the Caulfield Cup specifically and they showed they knew exactly what they were doing when he won it. Astonishing 5 times winner here at Flemington and placed 8 from 9 starts here. Has any horse ever been placed in a Group 1 1200M sprint and won a Group 1 3200M Melbourne Cup – in the same year? Makes BLACK CAVAIR look like a total wuss. Totally at peak of form at the moment, loomed like the winner here in the Turnbull but just died on his run, and got a perfect smother in the Caulfield Cup and he has the right turn of foot to put himself into races at the right time. Perfect barrier here to go to sleep too and burst clear early in the straight, but you just have to doubt him at the 3200M and everything seemed to fall into line last start which probably flattered the win a little. Don’t get us wrong – he is extremely good and good enough to take advantage of the breaks when they come, but just can’t see him winning this. Risking. 11-MOURAYAN is one of the Williams sextet and probably the one that is going to start at the longest odds. He is actually pretty good as a tough front rolling stayer on his day, but has been struggling for form this time in. Only the 3 runs in, wasn’t too far off them on speed in the Metropolitan, but then struggled badly on Saturday in a race that normally suits leaders. Drawn an outside barrier here but normally goes forward so listen for riding tactics. We liked him in this race last year when he was coming into it on winning form and he did loom early in the straight but struggled to go on. Just seems to be struggling this year and rank outsider in this. No 13-SUPER COOL is always going to be struggling to live up to a name like that. Showed a stack of ability of a 3YO and really went on a rapid improvement spiral during the Autumn when took on older rivals and still beat them. Stage was set for a very promising spring and he really hasn’t delivered. Ran on OK 1st up and all looked good, and also didn’t like racing tight inside horses the next few starts but also didn’t really put in. Thought he was very disappointing in the Caulfield Stakes when fair enough he was up against the much better stable mate, but just thought he was beaten far too easily. Then he settled on speed in the Cox Plate and stuck on OK, and the Mackinnon winner on the weekend does frank that form, but he was basically in the best ground there near the rails on the speed. Always a question mark over whether he would stay so actually surprised they even got this far with him. Settles handy here and really good on his day, but he hasn’t shown anything like this best form this time in. Passing. 14-MASKED MARVEL races in the alternate Williams stable colours of the Spiderman outfit. Yet another overseas purchased stayer, who has been going along OK this spring. Sent up to Sydney and did throw a race away by veering out. Didn’t do much in the Cox Plate when wasn’t really suited. Inside barrier, and probably going to get shuffled back on the fence here and suspect he probably doesn’t like racing tight inside horses. Looks a solid staying type but not sure he is going well enough to figure in this. No 17-VOLEUSE DE COEURS is a import who has been purchased by local connections and is one that has a bit of a spruik on it. Beat a good field by an impressive margin last start in a race that has been a good form reference for this. Lightly raced with good win strike rate too. Yet to be beaten at the 3200M. Local jockey on board for new local stable. Plenty are pushing this one, but once again these internationals don’t have a great record first start locally, but guess you could argue that being trained by local connections make a difference. Outside barrier makes it tough here – again listen out for riding tactics, but suspect they might try and settle mid field. Of the unseen imports he is probably the one with the most press about him – and invariably it is the no-namers at odds that run a race in this rather than the fancied runners. Happy to let him run. Risking. 18-HAWKSPUR is a 4YO with a major spruik on him but today is probably a bit of a D-Day for him to see if he is as good as everyone keeps saying. Had a very traditional Cup preparation and nothing wrong with that. Impressive 3YO staying form but things always seem to level out once you turn 4 and have to enter the grown up world. Hopelessly unlucky here in the Turnbull Stakes when tried for a narrow run along the rails and probably should have won that race – which has proven to be a very strong form race. Then ridden for luck in the Caulfield Cup, which only works now and then, dropping back and trying to make runs through the field. Once he got into the clear he ran on pretty well there too. Jockey notched up 100th Group 1 win on the weekend so could easily make it a very big few days and quickly make it 101. Again draws a bad barrier too – and guess they have no choice here but to drop back and ride for luck again ? Worth noting he did race handy in his 3YO wins so listen out for riding tactics. Pretty hard to knock form, hasn’t had the best of luck the last two runs, but just think you are asking for trouble dropping back and trying to win a Melbourne Cup – just nigh on impossible to come from well back and win, you invariably give something a huge head start who kicks and hangs on. So basically if he finds somewhere to settle mid field you are in with a chance, if he is further back think you are in strife. Think he will get backed – and happy to risk him on barrier alone. Risking. 20-IBICENCO is a tough grinding stayer who has been going pretty well this time in. Came out here for the Cup last year, but didn’t qualify, and went on to win the Sandown Cup. Transferred to a local stable and form during QLD Winter as OK. Surprised with 1st up win at long odds over 1700M, but they did go fast that day and he was suited by the tempo. Ground home OK in the Naturalism which was dominated by the leaders, and then got too far back and showed little in Sydney run. Stalked the leader in the Geelong Cup and out stayed him to the line after looking beaten 200M out. That race has been a very strong form race for this in recent years and winning form going into this race is really important. However, the Geelong Cup does seem to be dropping in quality with small field sizes, and just not sure the field this year had that much depth. Definitely stays the 3200M, just a real grinding type and not sure he has the brilliance or class to win a Melbourne Cup. Plenty of kms in his legs which is a good thing. Is long odds for a last start winner who stays the trip. Likely to drop back from outside barrier and just grind away in the straight – probably finishes in the first ten but unlikely to be in the finish. Passing. 23-TRES BLUE is an international trying to win this race at his first run in Australia, but stable went very close to doing that last year with the (6). Lightly raced, in form, and winning form coming into this race is really important. No weight. Not sure of his racing pattern , but suspect this one may get some betting support on the day. Drawn outside but maybe they go forward here with no weight? Yet to be tried over the 3200M. Likely to not be that far away, so consider for quinellas and trifectas, just so many have tried to win this race without a lead up run in Australia and their winning record is pretty poor so have to leave out on that basis alone. No Summary: We have been really lucky and got actually quite strong fields in the Melbourne Cup for a few years now. Amazing to have two previous winners and a previous place getter going around – and all starting at long odds. Strength of the internationals slash locals just means we get a very even field with a stack of winning chances this year, and normally you can write off half the Melbourne Cup field as no hoper plodders – but you can make a case for plenty of these. Lots of depth this year and plenty with form to be considered. Just means we have a very wide betting race and plenty of value about anything you like. A lot depends on whether some of the internationals get out and get rolling in space early on and turn it into a genuine 3200M race or we get more of a slowly run race like last year when something sitting handy can burst clear and pinch a break. The Melbourne Cup tick box check list: - Form. Winning form is really important, and often the winner of the Cup will be in winning form going into this race – and there usually aren’t that many last start winners in the field. We actually have 7 last start winners this year though, which is more than usual and just goes to show what a strong field this year is. You want horses that are right in the finish of their lead up runs, winning a race this time in, and even better wining your last lead up race. You really need to be at the top of your game, it is all well to be running on for nice 5ths and 6ths in “good Melbourne Cup trials”, but these horses invariably come out on the big day and run 5th or 6th again. - Caulfield Cup. The Caulfield Cup is always the best form reference for this race, and uniquely this year because the weights were raised most of the horses from that race drop in weight into this race. - Internationals. Life has been made a bit easier now that all the internationals have been bought by cashed up locals anyway, so we can see them over here and line them up. There are only 5 horses without a bracketed country of origin after their name, you would think it would be easier to just put a (AUS) after the few Australian ones instead. Much is made of the internationals, but we have stuck by the rule of “if you haven’t seen them run over here, don’t back them” for the last 15 years and it has worked darn well so not going to change that. In fact, in the last 20 years, only one international horse has won the Melbourne Cup without a lead up run over here – the first international, VINTAGE CROP in 1993. That’s it. For 20 years of hype, and best ever contingent, superior form, etc, etc, repeated every single year none of them have actually won. Sure , some have gone close and the laws of probability and sheer weight of numbers means that eventually one will break through, but it is a pretty imposing record. No point betting on unknowns, so if they haven’t raced here so you can line them up, or at the very least proven themselves over here before – leave them out of winning chances. Sure they will fill 2nd to 6th, but history says that they simply don’t win. And the ones that fill the placings are usually the no namers at long odds too. Worth noting though that most of the international runners this year are more lightly raced up and comers. - Position in running. It is really hard to win a Melbourne Cup coming from last, trying to dodge 23 other runners that are going up and down in the one spot, else give a decent head start to something that is going to stick on. Tactical speed is really important, land handy and kick clear whilst the backmarkers are still getting clear, and if you are looking for value place getters look for those well drawn that will race handy and plug away in the straight. - Addition. And the most important, vital factor to any 3 horse box trifecta – you need to pick 3 numbers that add up. Last year 14-11-3 paid a whopping $45,000. So easy ! Need to try and line up the speed here to see what sort of Melbourne Cup we are going to get. You would think the 11-MOURAYAN leads and maybe the 24-RUSCELLO trying to cross from an outside barrier with 2-GREEN MOON, 4-SEA MOON, 5-BROWN PANTHER, 9-ETHIOPIA, 12-SEVILLE, 16-ROYAL EMPIRE the most likely to sit handy. Think they will run along a bit faster than last year so the speed should probably suit the genuine stayers and good chance one or more of the internationals will get out and get rolling early and ramp the speed up. But still not a really hard slog staying test, so really want something from a good barrier here with a good turn of foot. Going to push for one of the Williams six there, the 12-SEVILLE, and get the feeling that is the way a lot of form analysts are going and he is probably the one that is going to get backed here. Around $15 currently think will be closer to $10 on the day. Drawn a perfect barrier, will sit on speed, winner this preparation, but funny enough it is more his run in last year’s Turnbull Stakes that flagged the level of ability he has. Can just see him getting the perfect run and kicking clear half way down the straight. Don’t underestimate the 22-DEAR DEMI here, she has run in everything, she has all the right form, her run here on Saturday was excellent and has no weight. Just a matter of getting in somewhere from barrier 16 but she just has a knack of finding runs. The other value runner here is the 7-FORETELLER who has that WFA class finishing burst about him, probably won’t run a strong 3200M, but won’t need to if he can just get in somewhere and not drop too far back. He is racing extremely well this preparation and always under rated. And the obvious pick the 6-FIORENTE, assume he will settle forward again here and ticks pretty much every box, just suspect he is going to start unders on the tote with the Waterhouse/Oliver combination. As for best roughie, everyone is writing off the Lexus form but really it has been super strong the last few years so just watch out for 24-RUSCELLO if he can get across and rolling on speed here. Really keen betting race and planning to back all 3 selections straight out – and suspect the winner comes from the top 4 picks here. Good luck – and make sure those box trifecta numbers add up ! One to risk: 4-SEA MOON #RED 13th W=$11.80 Roughie: 24-RUSCELLO The Key: WFA turn of foot from good barrier. RESULTS: They actually set a very solid tempo here and the on pacers are quickly gone once they turn for home. Very bunched field, but 6-FIORENTE and 3-RED CADEAUX settle down to fight it out. Strangely this year all the horses fighting out the finish are previous Cups runners. Form preview was pretty close to the money with rating the win and place chances. Outside the place getters the best runs are probably 8-DANDINO finishing on hard and surprisingly the only one of the Williams runners to finish in the top ten is the 10-FAWKNER who was wide all the way and was a pretty good run under the circumstance. Always some great exotic dividends in this race if you can find the right combinations - the $120,000 First Four really wasn't impossible. |
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