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Sportsbet are offering money back if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd or 4th in the Melbourne Cup. |
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| FLEMINGTON: MELBOURNE CUP - 4th Nov 2014 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Super fine and sunny weather leading into Tuesday. Although it was wild and windy on Derby Day not that much rain fell and the track still stayed rather firm. Forecast is heading towards 30 degrees for Cup Day and on a long program you would think that this track may end up quite firm. So look for horses with solid dry track form and be aware that the firmness of the track may be an issue for some of the runners, particularly some of the internationals in the Melbourne Cup. Rail is staying TRUE here, often they move the rail out 2M on this day. The racing pattern on Derby Day did tend to favour those running on late with cover, mainly because of the strong head wind. Normally on Cup Day they can run on OK as the track tends to wear out a bit, and whatever racing pattern there was on Saturday normally holds for most of the week. Down the straight the outside rail was the place to be, and that has been the case at a few Flemington meetings recently, so even without a strong head wind definitely want to tend towards those with outside barriers in the straight races. Melbourne Cup Day is always a dicey day for a serious bet, lots of open, even fields, lots of chances, so don’t bet too seriously, and back some 20-1 shots. We like to go wide in quinellas and running doubles on this day and just sit back and hope the results start rolling in. Having said that does seem to be an awful lot of clear favourites in these races this year which is unusual. Scattering it around with a lot of small bets for Cup Day punters on some value runners. RESULTS: Cup Day is always a tough day on the punt, and we get off to a great start but there is not much to report after that. Racing tends to favour those racing on speed, which is the ground which was avoided on Derby Day because of the strong wind. BEST WIN: Race 8: 13-SYSMO $4 WIN 2nd W=$7.30 BEST WIN: Race 8: 12-QUAYSIDE $4 WIN X Think you can narrow it down to two main winning chances in this race, the (13) and the (12). The (13) was pretty unlucky in the Sale Cup last start when he got stuck on the inside and held up for runs and clear running. Should have lots of improvement to come off that run, just needs enough speed here to get out from the inside barrier and run on late. The (12) is a strong finisher who will be suited if they are running on late and has been racing in peak form. Outside barrier shouldn’t be an issue as likes to drop back and run home late. Back both to win at around $7.50 and $10 look great value. RESULTS: Only just missed here at nice odds, held up on rails and flying home late to be in the photo finish. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 5-PRECIOUS GEM $4 WIN 1st W=$5.70 = $22.80 QUINELLA: Race 2: 5-PRECIOUS GEM#1,6,13,14 (scr) x $4 = 100% SCR $1 1st 5-PRECIOUS GEM W=$5.70, 3rd 6-DIG A PONY W=$5.00 We have been following this one all spring so let’s stick with her. She does keep dropping back in her races though and would prefer they ride her a bit more forward. Strong run last start at MV when she made a very early move to put herself into the race and that did leave her a bit of a sitting duck for something to run over the top. Bigger track here will suit and should have plenty of room to run on and she has been going pretty well this spring and is overdue to win one. Back straight out at around $8, and take quinellas with the (5) from the main dangers (1), (6), (13) and the roughie (14). Note that is a standout quinella with the 5-PRECIOUS GEM. RESULTS: Great way to kick off Cup Day, and they finally ride this one forward and it makes all the difference. Looked to have the sit all the way down the straight, but still only just got up in a photo finish. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 13-FITNA $4 EW X Only coming off a maiden win but was very impressive and did have support at 1st start in a city race. Oliver on board and you just get the feeling they are going to have a serious crack at this race and quite a few of these have little or no form, so even though she was only a maiden winner she should be right in this race. Each way at around $10. RESULTS: Looms up on the home turn , but is quickly beaten. BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 6-LADY LAKSHMI $3 EW X Coming into the last you are probably going to need a get out and it is a pretty even field and the form isn’t that strong. Safest way to go is something well drawn, and racing on speed over the Flemington 1400M so this one looks the way to go. Twice winner track and distance, placed 7 from 9 over this trip, last start winner. She leads, but doesn’t go really fast and just sticks on and suspect she may do so again here against a lot that are out of form, drawn badly or going to drop back. The $21 seems pretty good odds about an in form on pacer rolling on the speed in the last. RESULTS: Gets extremely well backed, and leads into the straight but is the first horse beaten. QUINELLA: Race 3: 3,7,13,14,18 boxed x $5 = 50% X There are some great value chances in the other staying race, and would suggest backing all three tips here the 7-AGGREGATOR, 14-BEAUTY PERCEPTION, 13-LUCK’S A FORTUNE at odds. The (7) was really good at Caulfield 2 starts back fighting out the finish and just got a little bogged down with 60kgs last start at Geelong. Should be fitter for the 3 runs in, gets a big weight advantage against the others from that race today, and should stay this trip at around $15. Also watch out for our 2nd selection here though, the 14-BEAUTY PERCEPTION who might go forward here and fight on pretty well at $18. Back the top pick each way, and box up a quinella which is going to pay very well in a big field where we have gone for a few roughies. RESULTS: They go mad hard in front and it sets it up for those running on - and none of them are the ones we backed. BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 8-JUNOOB $2.50 EW X Let’s have something on our best roughie in the Melbourne Cup, who should get a perfect sit on the speed here from a nice barrier and put himself into the race at the right time. He knows how to win, likes a dry track and think he just got out sprinted on the home turn in the Caulfield Cup and stayed on well after that. Suspect he is going to poke through here and be in the finish somewhere at around $26. RESULTS: Gets a good run behind the speed and looks like going to run into the finish on the turn, but doesn't stay the distance. BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 5-IT IS WRITTEN $2.50 EW SCR $5 This one has actually been racing really well, but has just been struggling to get into a suitable race. Worked home really well 1st up, but has been stuck with big weights and outside barriers in most runs since then and hasn’t been disgraced. This is a crazy race down the straight, and the outside rail is likely to be fastest, but suspect there is going to be a bit of a squash out that way and maybe you want to be on something back towards the middle who gets a clear run. Really consistent when in form and finally gets into a race with a reasonable weight and definitely worth a rough chance at around $35. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 10: 5-ROSE OF CHOICE at around $4 2nd W=$5.20 Very even field in the last and last thing you need is for the favourite to win when you need a decent get out. This one ran on well 1st up, but didn’t really fly to the line and is 2nd up and up 200M. Tends to drop a long way back in the run and need running room and has drawn barrier 1 in a race with not that much speed, and besides coming to the end of the day they are likely to be winning running on out wide. Happy to risk. RESULTS: Really, really lucky to get away with this one, looks the winner the whole way down the straight but one gets a miracle run through on the rails to beat it. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. QUINELLA: Race 9: 4,5(scr),9,14,21 boxed x $5 = 50% SCR $2 X Sure to be some big dividends in the straight races with capacity fields. Strong head wind on Saturday meant the outside rails was the place to be, and even without a wind that has happened a few times recently. Often all you need to do is just box up the outside barriers. So let take some outside barrier runners, the (21) who is top pick and should lead down the outside with not much pressure, the (14) and (9) and box them up with the other two selections drawn back towards the middle, the 4-ICONIC, 5-IT IS WRITTEN at odds. RESULTS: Well, good idea, the quinella paid a whopping $949, just it was the inside barriers you wanted, not the outside barriers! SPENT: $50 RETURN: $30.80 NET: $-19.20 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACES. NO BETS. Race 2: 5-PRECIOUS GEM, 13-ENTERTAINS, 6-DIG A PONY Race 3: 7-AGGREGATOR, 14-BEAUTY PERCEPTION, 13-LUCK’S A FORTUNE Race 4: 2-THE QUARTERBACK, 10-BALIGARI, 7-DOUBLE DEE Race 5: 19-SEBRING LANE, 1-LAW, 20-FANTASY EIGHT Race 6: 13-FITNA, 2-WINE TALES, 10-SHARCADE Race 7: 3-FAWKNER, 8-JUNOOB, 24-SIGNOFF Race 8: 13-SYSMO, 12-QUAYSIDE, 9-PHEIDON Race 9: 21-THERMAL CURRENT, 4-ICONIC, 5-IT IS WRITTEN Race 10: 6-LADY LAKSHMI, 19-MAHARA (emerg), 20-CORONATION SHALLAN (emerg), 12-SINO EAGLE |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-PRECIOUS GEM 1st W=$5.70 *** Best Each Way Bet *** 13-ENTERTAINS 6-DIG A PONY 3rd W=$5.00 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-AGGREGATOR 14-BEAUTY PERCEPTION 13-LUCK’S A FORTUNE |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-THE QUARTERBACK 10-BALIGARI 7-DOUBLE DEE |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 19-SEBRING LANE 1-LAW 20-FANTASY EIGHT SCR |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-FITNA 2-WINE TALES 10-SHARCADE |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-FAWKNER 8-JUNOOB 24-SIGNOFF |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-SYSMO 2nd W=$7.30 12-QUAYSIDE 9-PHEIDON 3rd W=$8.30 |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 21-THERMAL CURRENT 4-ICONIC 5-IT IS WRITTEN SCR |
| RACE 10: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-LADY LAKSHMI 19-MAHARA 1st W=$6.00 12-SINO EAGLE |
| RACE 7: MELBOURNE CUP 3200M GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 3-FAWKNER 8-JUNOOB 24-SIGNOFF |
| Others: 21, 1, 11 Pace: EVEN Leaders: 2-CAVALRYMAN (GB), 9-ROYAL DIAMOND (IRE), 14-MY AMBIVALENT (IRE), 17-MR O'CEIRIN, 18-AU REVOIR, 19-LIDARI Handy: 3-FAWKNER , 5-PROTECTIONIST (GER), 7-SEISMOS (IRE), 8-JUNOOB, 10-GATEWOOD (GB) (wide), 11-MUTUAL REGARD (IRE) , 12-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN, 16-BRAMBLES (wide), 24-SIGNOFF Back: 1-ADMIRE RAKTI (JPN), 4-RED CADEAUX (GB), 6-SEA MOON, 13-WILLING FOE (USA), 15-PRECEDENCE, 20-OPINION , 21-ARALDO , 22-LUCIA VALENTINA, 23-UNCHAIN MY HEART Chances: 1-ADMIRE RAKTI (JPN) is the Caulfield Cup winner and the same horse can often pick up the Cups doubles, it actually seems to be easy than punters trying to back the Cups Double! Which makes sense, seeing often they are meeting a substantial number of the same runners here that they beat home in the Caulfield Cup. Lugging a big top weight is a tough ask in a Melbourne Cup, MAKYBE DIVA in 2005 is the only horse to have carried No. 1 saddlecloth in the last 30 years to win. But not many Caulfield Cup winners went into this race so high up in the weights. Whilst the overseas European horses are only a betting proposition if they have had a run over here, or have been over here before so you can line them up, the record of the Japanese horses with just a few runners is extraordinary. Firm track is definitely no issue. Drawn a good barrier, but still probably settles back. Caulfield Cup win was awesome, he sat off them and rounded up a kick for home horse who looked the winner. Have to respect that run. Just wonder if over the 3200M might not have as much dash? Slight suspicion here with top weight in a big field he might just find one better over the 3200M but have to respect winning form. Chance. 3-FAWKNER is pretty much the best WFA horse in Australia at the moment and amazing how he has gone up a level over the last year to put himself in the finish of pretty much every race he contests. Was previously a solid 1600M miler, then went up a notch last spring when he won the Caulfield Cup and showed a touch of class. Really thought the 3200M was beyond him, but he was the first home of the stable’s runners last year to run in this race and ran a very credible 6th – especially seeing he settled last and it is really hard to make ground at the end of the 3200M. He came around the whole field quickly last year to put himself into the finish, but just seemed to die on his run the last 200M, but still that was a massive effort. Only had the 3 runs this time in, which is a very light preparation into this race based on the old Cup school, but he has been right in the finish of the Makybe Diva, Caulfield Stakes and Cox Plate, and really looked the winner of the Cox Plate till the last few metres. 5 times winner at Flem. 57kgs is probably a bit harshly weighted and up 2.5kgs on last year. Drawn a nice barrier here and surely they go forward this year, unlike last year? Horses with a WFA touch of class can win this race, and think he probably has a better turn of foot than most of these. A lot might come down to how much of a true staying contest this is, but there doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of speed, so think ridden handy and exploding to the front he might be a chance to pinch this. Strong chance. 8-JUNOOB is a tough on pace stayer and yet another of the import come locals. Strong on pace win with weight in the Metropolitan and stable seems to win just about everything these days. The best thing to like about him is that he is a winner, and so many of these aren’t – he has won 6 of his last 12 starts which is pretty impressive. Has good dry track form. Wasn’t beaten that far in the Caulfield Cup and note jockey change and new jockey is really good with distance races. He has drawn a nice barrier here, and will go forward and make his own luck. Raced up near the speed in the Caulfield Cup and just seemed to struggle to keep up when they went for home, but he actually stayed it out pretty well to the line. Think you can make a case for him here, winning form, dry track form, on pace from a good barrier, wasn’t beaten that far against these in the Caulfield Cup, he should just about get the run of the race here and should put himself into the finish. Strong rough chance. 11-MUTUAL REGARD (IRE) is a lightly raced Irish raider with a good win strike rate and good dry track form. Coming off winning form into this race too which is a important plus. Won a overseas lead up race which is often a good guide to this race. Drawn well, goes forward to sit just off the speed, placed 4 from 5 over the 3200M, plenty of boxes to tick here. Then you throw local jockey Oliver on board and you can’t really go wrong! Sure to be the best backed runner out of the internationals and expect to see a solid betting move for this one. Unseen down under and we normally like to see them before backing them, but has to go in as a chance. Chance. 21-ARALDO is a solid staying type, who has only had the 15 starts and has maintained a solid win strike rate. Import come local and he has been improving with every run he has had here. Given a nice preparation last spring and won the Bart Cummings here and placed in the Lexus, so solid Flemington record. Given a full year off and has been working towards this nicely, ran on well in the Naturalism, really good late fighting out the finish in the Metropolitan and thought he was by far the best run behind the winner from the Caulfield Cup. He got badly shuffled back to last and was giving the field a few lengths at Caulfield, he cut the corner, got held up for runs and was coming to the line strongly and probably should have placed. He still does a few things wrong, he tends to hang his head on the side when coming home and just think you need to be doing everything right to win this race. Outside barrier probably not the best either, he is likely to drop well back in this and it is really hard to win this race coming from last. Good dry track form, he will be better suited here at Flemington on a bigger track, looks like he will stay all day and really good run at Caulfield means he is right in this and probably the best rough chance in a race with little form. Slight concern is that he may just leave it a bit too late and be running on into the placings, but best rough chance here. Rough. 24-SIGNOFF has really been perfectly set for this race and the stable have planned this Melbourne Cup assault extremely well. Worked through his grades in his first preparation, and most importantly he kept winning as he rose through the grades and through his distances. Maintains a really good win strike rate and being one who knows how to win is important for this race. You just get the feeling all spring the whole plan was to get him qualified for the Cup and into this field on the minimum and they have pulled that off perfectly. Has been slowly improving all spring, and we actually tipped him a few times earlier on, but it does look like they were slowly building up his fitness and everything fell into place on Saturday winning the Lexus and getting into this field. Stable with the same colours were all the rage last year with PUISSANCE DE LUNE, so it will be ironic if they win the year after with a different horse. A lot of like about him, in winning form in a field with not much form, light weight, good win strike rate. Even though he has drawn wide he should be able to go forward here and he can race on speed which means he can go for home, whilst the backmarkers are held up and dodging tiring horses. Like that he has had a few extra runs this time in and is hard and fit if this is a tough 3200M slog. The lightly weighted winner of the Lexus just about always goes well in this race and often runs in the top four. Firm track no issue. Only question might be if he has the class to win this, but this is one of the weakest Cup fields in a long time so as a fit, in form, on pace, lightly weighted winner – very hard to go past. Strong chance. 4th W=$9.50 Place: 2-CAVALRYMAN (GB) is the Goldophin stable runner and they have been trying for centuries now to win this race and just have not managed it. Note that local jockey Williams is on board and if anyone can win it he can. 9 year old and had a few starts now, though has won 3 out of his last 5 runs so has definitely not lost his mojo. Drawn an inside barrier and likely to go forward here, though might have to be used up early as they cross and go forward from outside barriers. Ran in this race in 2012 when dropped well back and made OK ground, but you would think they will go forward this year. His form this time in is probably better than in 2012 as well. Solid 3200M record is a big plus, placed 4 from 6 starts with 2 wins. Normally horses coming back to try again at the Cup don’t improve much, if you win this race it is normally at your 1st try but think if he rolls forward here he is probably the nice roughie, low profile over seas horses to give your trifecta a boost. Rough place. SCR 5-PROTECTIONIST (GER) is a very lightly raced overseas raider who has been given the one warm up run over here, which is great so we can line him up. Did fly home late in the Herbert Power with a big weight and that was definitely an eye catching run and he is sure to get plenty of support here. Can race on speed and most importantly he is a winner. The only question mark we would have is how good is the form through that Caulfield race? Guess the (24) has gone on, so the form holds up OK, but in most normal years a fast finishing 4th in that race really wouldn’t be good enough to even warrant a second thought in this race. Though this year might be different as this race has come up pretty weak. He is going to get well supported, and to be honest think he will start under the odds – how enthused can you really get over a fast finishing 4th in the Herbert Power? Has some chance, but prefer place. Place. 1st W=$8.60 10-GATEWOOD (GB) is an international, come local, come international again, we just wish he would make up his mind! Had a spring preparation over here in 2012 and did pretty well, being unlucky in the Herbert Power, winning the Geelong Cup and a beaten favourite in the Lexus. Stuck around to see the sights in the Sydney Autumn and didn’t show much, so got banished back overseas again. Form since going back has been excellent – he has yet to miss the place in 10 starts! So either he has improved heaps, or the Australian food really didn’t agree with him? Hard to tell. Note he has not won past 2500M. He has proven himself over here before so that is a big plus. Drawn outside here and does normally race on speed so will they go forward here? Actually quite long odds in this for a horse who has proven himself down here and is racing pretty well. If they go forward good chance he may stick on for place, if they go back he probably grinds away to run in the top ten. Rough place for trifectas. 12-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN is a lightly raced NZ stayer who has an excellent win strike rate. Good dry track form. Had a nice solid staying preparation for the 3200M with 2 x 2500M runs this time in. Flemington wins were both good, he sat on speed in both of them and cleared away from this rivals. The main issue though is his rivals, really were not that good, so hard to line up the strength of that form. Had a few health issues after poor run in the Caulfield Cup so maybe you can forgive that run. He is in winning form this time in which is real plus, lightly raced, he can sit handy from a nice barrier and make his own luck. Winner over 3200M in NZ. Not sure he is going good enough to win this, but you can probably forgive the Caulfield Cup run which means his form does look a lot better than many going around here. Place chance. 3rd W=$12.40 16-BRAMBLES has had a really good spring and has been battling out the finish of most of his races. Not sure they really intended to make it as far as this race at the start of the spring, but he has done incredibly well coming back from a long injury lay off. Classic Derby winner as a 3YO, given a long lay off, and a few winter warm up runs. Lot to like about his form this spring, kicked out in the finish of the Naturalism, won in a tough win here under a big weight, and settled on speed and fought on well in the Turnbull. Had the box seat in the Caulfield Cup and just over raced a little, but looked for an instant that he was going to grind down the mare who kicked clear there early in the straight. Given the traditional warm up Mackinnon run on the Saturday which was not the best, but he did race on speed and the race was set up for those running on. Maybe you can forgive that run. Winner this time in, competitive in everything he has contested, and hard and fit for this. Outside barrier an issue as he does like to roll on speed and might have to work to go forward here. Unknown at 3200M. Question mark with him might be getting him to settle to run out this trip. Listen for riding instructions from an outside barrier – might they ride him a bit further back today? Form is good, drawn a barrier would probably be a chance, but can just see him over racing and struggling with the trip. Place only 18-AU REVOIR is an overseas runner who has been given a local run here before this race which has definitely been the best pattern to prepare horses for the Cup. Plenty to like about the MV Cup run, he landed on speed and stuck on well, though there wasn’t that much speed in the race and not really sure about the strength of that field. French horse whose racing pattern over there was to race on speed as well and would much rather be near the front in the Cup than near the back of the field. Outside barrier probably not the best as assume they will want to go forward here. Overseas form was OK without being outstanding and wasn’t winning impressively or the like. Bit hard to line him up on the one MV run, those internationals who have won this race and had a run here in preparation have normally come off impressive wins, he is coming off an OK on pace 3rd in a weak race. Rolling on speed think he will stick on though, so do put him as a value place chance in your trifectas. Place. 20-OPINION is another import come local who has been showing saying promise heading into this race. Went around favourite in the 2800M here last year, jockey lost irons and let’s hope that doesn’t happen again here. Progressed nicely though the staying races in the Sydney Autumn and strong finishing 2nd in the Sydney Cup this year. Given a solid 5 runs this time in, chased home hard in the Metropolitan, and then never looked suited at MV, dropping back around a tight circuit in a race with not much speed and best he could do was make solid ground late. Last run was better than it looked as really not suited (despite being sent out favourite!). Looking at form you do wonder if he might be better with some give in the ground and if the firm track here might not be the best? Drawn out a little, listen for riding tactics but assume they will go back here and not sure if he is quite good enough to win a Melbourne Cup coming from well back. Fit, in form and stays, he will run home again and finish somewhere in the first ten, but prefer place chance at best. Place. 22-LUCIA VALENTINA is a lightly raced 4YO mare who went around as favourite in the Caulfield Cup and ran really well running on late there. Caulfield Cup is always the best form guide for this race. Has been in winning form this time in too, and so many of these are just not winners. Won here 2 starts back on a firm track, but the firm track today is probably her biggest issue as she is better with some give in the ground. Actually she has not won past 2000M, although she has been placed in an Oaks. She has an explosive turn of foot, and most of these just grind away, and you need a bit of class to win this race. She was behind the (1) in the Caulfield Cup, they both made their runs together and she really didn’t seem to make much ground off him. Inside barrier might be a bit of an issue here, she likes to drop back and although she can take quick gaps think that she is better outside horses. In a slowly run race where she can use her turn of foot she is right in this, and you probably shouldn’t write off Caulfield Cup place getters in this race. However, dry track, inside barrier, maybe some query if this is a solid staying 3200M means we are probably just tending towards place. Place. Sacking: 4-RED CADEAUX (GB) is an overseas visitor who is becoming a bit of a legend. Three tries in the Melbourne Cup for a 2nd in 2013, an 8th in 2012, and a 2nd, beaten a pixel in 2011. Horses who run well in this race often come back and do well again in later tries. He is actually yet to win over 3200M from 7 tries but that does include 4 placings, so you can hardly complain. He hasn’t won a race now since Dec 2012, and that means 13 runs without a win and his form does look like it is starting to taper off a bit. Dry track no issue. Drawn out, but probably settles back and likes to make a long sweeping run into the race and did come from barrier 23 last year to run 2nd. Keeps starting long odds too – he ran 2nd last year at $61, and was $31 in 2012 when he ran 2nd, is going to start shorter this year but his form probably isn’t as good? He is a tough stayer and have to respect the record at the trip, but think maybe want to look elsewhere this year for a value place getter. Passing. 2nd W=$17.60 6-SEA MOON is one of the Williams Stable who seem under represented with just the two runners this year. Tough grinding stayer who had a huge spruik on him last spring that he did not live up to and last spring he seemed to appreciate lots of hard racing and firm tracks and distance. Been given a very light preparation this time in, was just starting to wind up 1st up at the end of the 2500M and was taking forever to get going and then unusually went to the lead in the Caulfield Cup and gave up pretty quickly. Not sure where he settles here –listen for riding tactics? You would think from an outside barrier he probably goes back. Probably not the roughest, and he might run on and get into the first half dozen or so, as think he wants distance and Flemington and a true staying test. Hard to see him genuinely being in the finish on form though. Passing. 7-SEISMOS (IRE) is an import who has been given the one warm up run over here where he drew the worse barrier possible for a on paced overseas stayer – barrier 1. And guess what barrier he drew in the Melbourne Cup? Barrier 1! Poor connections. Jockey said he was very one paced and you don’t want to get caught inside with those sort of horses as you will struggle to make runs and put yourself into the race. Coming off winning form overseas. Best chance would be to go forward and wide in clear running and turn it into a true staying 3200M, but that’s unlikely to happen from the barrier. Out to long odds and hard to have off poor Caulfield Cup run. Passing. 9-ROYAL DIAMOND (IRE) just sounds so classy to begin with, just based on his name. 9 year old who has had a fair few starts so does seem to be leaving it rather late in life to start a new career down under. Dry track should be no issue. Solid 3200M form and drawn a nice barrier and can go forward here if required. Did put together a string of wins this time last year, though more recent form hasn’t been quite as good. Totally unknown, and we don’t like unknown betting propositions, prefer to bet on ones we can line up. Prefer to risk. 13-WILLING FOE (USA) is an 8yo Goldolphin runner and they just haven’t been able to find the right horse to win this race. Lightly raced still with a good win strike rate and they have put a local jockey on board. Drawn out and can race forward, but suspect they will probably drop back with a quite a few who might go forward as well. Low profile horse and often these ones run the best, but again, just likely to run on for a solid 4th to 6th here and not interested in betting on unknowns, despite the weak level of opposition this year. Passing. 14-MY AMBIVALENT (IRE) is an Irish visitor who looks the leader here going forward from an inside barrier, though there are quite a few internationals who can press forward. Lightly raced mare with a good win strike rate. Dry track no issue. Has been a little temperamental in trackwork and just wonder if the big crowd might rev her up here. Total unknown, so you are really relying on the betting market for guidance and invariably the international horses who have won this race have had a lead up run here. There does seem to be quite a few internationals who can go forward here, not really sure what sort of tempo they set. Prefer to bet on things we can line up, so happy to pass. Risking. 15-PRECEDENCE is Bart’s tough old stayer who keeps on trying to get into this race and this year succeeded. Couldn’t quite make the field last year, but won the Queen Elizabeth on the last day of the carnival to make amends. Ran 9th in this race in 2012, 11th in this race in 2011 and 8th in this race in 2010. He has struggled in this race before, even in years when he has had good form so hard to see it being any different this year. Drawn out is an issue as probably has to drop back. He is actually going OK this time in, too short 1st up, 2nd up he was running on really well and just ran into a dead end near the line when full of momentum and then you can probably forgive the run in the MV Cup with a slow pace that turned into a sprint home. 5 starts over the 3200M for 0-0-0 looks a real issue and despite the Cummings factor hard to see him being improved from his previous efforts in this race. No. 17-MR O'CEIRIN is an OK on pace stayer on his day, but he has been around a few seasons now and we pretty much know his place. On pace, wet tracks, around 2000M are his go, and he is good when he gets rolling on speed under those conditions. Yet to win in 16 good track starts and the firm track here is a definite issue for this one. Has only won 1 of his last 13 runs now and it has been over a year since he won a race. Was in the finish a few times during the QLD winter, but his form this time in really hasn’t been that good and although he has not been beaten that far he really has not got into the finish. Coming into this off a 4 week break and no runs past 2000M this time in is a concern. Definite distance query too. Just looks outclassed here. No 19-LIDARI has been a bit of a surprise packet this spring as we had him flagged as an on pace miler and yet here he is in the Melbourne Cup. Import come local who had his first preparation Autumn last year in Melbourne and got beaten a few times as a short priced favourite when racing on the speed. Showed some fresh form last spring and autumn, and has been right in the finish of every race he has contested this spring – but without winning, always running a close competitive 4th, 5th and 6th. Guess you cannot knock his form, but one thing we really like is horses in winning form, or at the very least winning form this preparation going into this race – you really need to be at your peak. Competitive against some of these in the Turnbull, and then had to make a rushed run early to get into the race in the Caulfield Cup when not beaten that far. Is meeting quite a few who beat him home there again here though. Drawn middle here, will go forward and race on speed and make his own luck. Just not sure if he has the class or ability to be in the finish here, he will stick on OK, but don’t think he is going well enough to win this. Happy to risk. 23-UNCHAIN MY HEART is a tiny little mare who, to be honest, is mainly racing for novelty value so that the owners have the thrill of having a Melbourne Cup runner. And fair enough too, it is a dream of any owner to have a runner in the Cup. Late scratching from Saturday, not because of the track surface, but because she had moved up the order of entry with others falling out and was going to get into this field. She is a super tough little mare, if you are on course, have a look at her, she is tiny compared to her opposition. Firm track is a plus, and 4 times winner here at Flem and she just loves dry Flemington tracks and a bit of distance. Actually unbeaten in 2 starts over Flem 3200M. Her first couple of runs this preparation were actually really good and she seemed to be building to a bit of form, but she has struggled in her last two runs, dropping well back and really not making much ground. Drawn a nice barrier, but will be back at the tail of the field here which is going to make it hard. Going to start a rank outsider here and fair enough too, she is going to struggle in this based on her last few runs. No Summary: Well here we are, the pinnacle of Australian racing – is this really it? A dozen or so international horses we have no idea about, and a lot of out of form horses, racing in one of the least interesting and weakest Melbourne Cups ever. Is this really where we want this race to go? It is a punting nightmare. Let’s try and make some sense of it. First off, we have stuck to the same rule with the internationals, which is a little pig headed, but has worked so far. Don’t bet on unknowns. So if they haven’t come out here and had a run so you can line them up, then don’t really see the point. Going to be super tricky this year with such a poor quality local field and so many internationals, so yes, one of them probably wins, but it will most likely be the one with the least media attention at the longest odds. We realise the Japanese runners might be an exemption to this rule, their record from just a few runners is extraordinary. In the last 20 years, only one international horse has won the Melbourne Cup without a lead up run over here – the first international, VINTAGE CROP in 1993. That’s it. For 20 years of hype, and best ever contingent, superior form, etc, etc, repeated every single year none of them have actually won. Sure , some have gone close and the laws of probability and sheer weight of numbers means that eventually one will break through, but it is a pretty imposing record. Sure they will fill 2nd to 6th, but history says that they simply don’t win. Real winning form is important, either at the last start, or at the very least winning form this time in. 11 of the last 20 winners have won their lead up run. 15 of the last 20 winners have placed in their lead up run. Big field, lots of competition, you really need to be at the peak of your form. There are actually only 3 last start winners in the race this year, the (1), (11) and (24), and only 7 last start place getters. Just goes to show how weak the field is this year. Real form is also important. You want horses that are right in the finish of their lead up runs, winning a race this time in, and even better wining their last lead up race. You really need to be at the top of your game, it is all well to be running on for nice 5ths and 6ths in “good Melbourne Cup trials”, but these horses invariably come out on the big day and run 5th or 6th again. The Caulfield Cup is always the best form reference for this race, and make up a fair part of this year’s field, so line up the runners. It is really hard to win a Melbourne Cup coming from last, trying to dodge 23 other runners that are going up and down in the one spot, else give a decent head start to something that is going to stick on. Tactical speed is really important, land handy and kick clear whilst the backmarkers are still getting clear, and if you are looking for value place getters look for those well drawn that will race handy and plug away in the straight. So let’s apply that to this year. It is really hard to tell what the speed is going to be like this year. The locals aren’t going to set a very fast speed, it is mainly, 17-MR O'CEIRIN, 19-LIDARI and they are both big distance queries so doubt they will run along. One or more of the internationals might go forward, 2-CAVALRYMAN (GB), 9-ROYAL DIAMOND (IRE), 14-MY AMBIVALENT (IRE), 18-AU REVOIR, just hard to tell what sort of speed they are going to set, but doubt it is going to be a very solid tempo. We are going to stick with the class horse here in the 3-FAWKNER, go back and watch his run in this race last year, it was huge, and he will sit just behind the speed here and sprint clear, he has the turn of foot to win this, just wonder if he can win a Melbourne Cup with 57kgs. If the tempo is a bit on the slower side he is going to be very hard to beat. The main danger is actually a roughie, because well this field is pretty weak this year and can make a push for the 8-JUNOOB. Solid stayer in winning form and most importantly he knows how to win. Like the barrier and he will be sitting just behind the speed here, which mightn’t be that fast and think he can put himself into the race at the right time. Stable is winning everything at the moment, and think he just got out sprinted in the Caulfield Cup and make poke his head through here at the right time. Respect the 24-SIGNOFF perfectly set for this race, in winning form, racing on speed with no weight in a field with little or not form. Other dangers the 21-ARALDO and 1-ADMIRE RAKTI (JPN). Happy to play with the three selections at odds though in a year where we might get a funny result. One to risk: 5-PROTECTIONIST 1st W=$8.60 Roughie: 8-JUNOOB, 21-ARALDO The Key: Real form, winning form and class. RESULTS: Well we made a mess of that race. The 14-MY AMBIVALENT (IRE) runs them along at a silly speed turning it into a very fast run race and a true staying test, which is the opposite of how we did the form. An international gets up and wins - but again an international that has had a run over here and yet again really not worth getting on those who you havent' seen first. Silly us takes on the winner though as the One To Risk, and that is the Derby AND the Cup Winner so far this week - but normally the internationals who win this have been super impressive and have won their lead up race. Solid run by the 12-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN to run a place and poor 4-RED CADEAUX (GB) was absolutely cruising on the home turn and looked the winner, but racked up a yet another 2nd in the Melbourne Cup. |
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