|FLEMINGTON: MELBOURNE CUP - 1st Nov 2016|
|Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
There are a few showers around Monday and Tuesday but nothing too substantial and it should just take the edge off this track and give every horse a chance. The racing pattern on Derby Day was even, though it was strange the inside was off early in the day, but it didnít seem to be an issue later on. They should be able to run on out wide and win later in the day today. Down the straight the middle to outside was definitely the place to be and expect that pattern to continue so look for outside barriers in the straight races.
We donít think we have seen a Melbourne Cup field that we have had less interest in Ė think you would struggle to find 24 horses we cared less about than this bunch. Prefer to back horses we know the form for and can have a confident bet on and surely betting turnover must be down when punters donít know Ė or donít care about who is running. There are an awful lot of horses in the $10 to $20 range this year and punters just donít seem to know where to go in the Cup.
The Cup seems to have a lot of speed this year and it looks like it will be a very genuine staying contest. As always with the internationals, there is simply no point backing them unless they have run here and you have seen how they are going Ė else you are just betting on unknowns. Eventually one year something will pop up and win without running here first, but you would be already well ahead over the last 20 years anyway by avoiding them. Plonk a few of the longer priced internationals into the placings in the trifecta as it is often the ones at longest odds that run the best.
We just cannot go past the run of 20-OCEANOGRAPHER from Saturday. Huge performance to come from well back and win, he is a lightly raced horse that is flying and rapidly improving and you have to pay attention to that. Slight concern about dropping back in a big Melbourne Cup field and it can be quite tough to come from well back and win this race having to dodge lots of tired horses. Like that he has drawn out a little and speed here is going to suit. Clear top pick for us. Putting in the 5-EXOSPHERIC as the main danger. Caulfield Cup run was excellent and that is normally the best form for this race. Should have further improvement to come and seems to have been largely forgotten here. The favourite 5-HARTNELL the other obvious danger and he may just be too classy for these with genuine WFA form. Have no issue with the Cox Plate run and several horses have run similar and won the Cup recently. Only query is his two poor 3200M runs in Australia that have us slightly concerned. Struggling to find anything at odds that interests us either for a Best Rough, maybe the 19-GREY LION who will roll on the speed here out wide and only just missed in the Geelong Cup.
Melbourne Cup Day is always an awful program and usually there are lots of big dividends so it is never a day for a serious bet. Most of these races have many, many winning chances that are difficult to separate. Take wide box quinellas and doubles, throw in a few long shots and just sit back and enjoy the day. Taking plenty of little bets in the Betting Portfolio for Cup Day punters.
BEST WIN : Race 5: 3-BIASED WITNESS $5 WIN
Big field of young horses down the straight always means there is a chance of a long shot winner, but happy to go with the favourite here who was excellent at MV 1st up and chased really hard to the line. Drawn outside down the straight will be the place to be and last run looked like a horse on the way up. Happy to back straight out at around $4.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 5-TIDY PROPHET $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 1,2,5,8 x $3 = 50%
Good at MV when made a very wide run and keep fighting out the finish to the line. Has a really good win strike rate and like that she is proven over longer as some of these are queries at the distance. Will drop back and there doesnít seem to be a lot of speed here, so we will need them to be running on and winning OK. Looks a great each way bet early in the day at around $12 and the main danger here is the 2-METAPHORICAL who has been running in harder races and will be suited back on a firm track. Box up a quinella with the leaders the (1) and the (8) in case they get a soft run in the lead.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 4-SOVEREIGN NATION $3 EW
Talented performer who can be hard to catch, but his two runs back this time in have been excellent. Fitter now and last start got stuck back in the field and made great ground to get into the finish. Ready to win, again we will need them to be running on OK but looks a nice each way bet at around $11.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 12-A LOTTA LOVE $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 10: 12-A LOTTA LOVE, 3-SILENT SEDITION x $1 = 100%
QUINELLA: Race 10: 12-A LOTTA LOVE, 15-SHILLELAGH x $1 = 100%
This is probably our main bet of the day and this one is racing really well at the moment and should have won last start at Geelong. Got held up for runs for most of the straight and flew home once into the clear there. Solid 1400M form and coming to the last race they should be winning down the middle of the track. Looks a fantastic last race bet at around $14 and there are a few talented horses in this though, so letís save on the quinella with the 3-SILENT SEDITION and the 15-SHILLELAGH.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 9-HI WORLD $2 EW
Very hard to catch, but just have a sneaky feeling this one is going to do something today. There are a lot of out of form horses in this field and even though he has drawn wide he should be able to go forward and sit just off the speed, which doesnít look fast. Was really good late here 3 starts back, flopped in Sydney, and then OK in Moe Cup when in worse going and chasing tear away leader. Probably wants a bit more rain, by later in the day that may have come. Just a dabble at around $21.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 18-LORD BARRINGTON $2 EW
When we say rough Ė we mean really rough Ė currently around $81! Really consistent type who has an excellent place strike rate (19/29), and has only missed the place 3 times in his last 13 starts. Little bit of rain will assist, been racing well in city grade, drawn outside down the straight and will go forward whilst the rest knock each other over trying to get to the outside for runs. Looks well over the odds to us and definitely worth something each way.
QUINELLA: Race 3: 3,7,14,18,22 x $5 = 50%
There is one at odds we are quite interested in here, the 22-DREADED (emerg) who might get into the field now with a few scratchings. Was excellent late at Geelong and although badly weighted against the other horses from that race looks a stayer on the up. Wish he hadnít drawn barrier 1 as a drop back horse in the field. Big staying field will see plenty of value in the quinella so box up some of the other main chances and hope for a result.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5:10-SPEEDEOR at around $5
Well in the market mainly because of the stable and coming off a good maiden win, but drawn the wrong side of the straight here on the inside in a big field and if the favourite doesnít win we would much rather back a few at odds like the 15-NEAPOLITAN or 7-FALCOOL .
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
QUINELLA: Race 9: 9,11,13,18,19 boxed x $5 = 50%
Good chance of a big result in the straight race in a big field and we have already pushed the case for ultra roughie 18-LORD BARRINGTON. The main chances are the 13-RAVI who was excellent running on late last start, and the 9-RUETTIGER who was good in a harder race. Box them up the with obvious 11-SIR BACCHUS, and another roughie drawn outside the 19-LORD VON COSTA based on his excellent straight track record.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. NO BET.
Race 2: 5-TIDY PROPHET, 2-METAPHORICAL, 8-SORT AFTER
Race 3: 14-ALL I SURVEY, 3-MURPHYíS DELIGHT, 22-DREADED (emerg), 18-SUPER HAZE
Race 4: 4-SOVEREIGN NATION, 3-DEMONSTRATE, 7-MAGIC BOY
Race 5: 3-BIASED WITNESS, 15-NEAPOLITAN, 7-FALCOOL
Race 6: 3-SWEET SHERRY, 6-MY COUNTRY, 8-FARAWAY TOWN
Race 7: 20-OCEANOGRAPHER, 5-EXOSPHERIC, 6-HARTNELL
Race 8: 9-HI WORLD, 17-PLOT THE COURSE, 14-FABRIZIO
Race 9: 13-RAVI, 9-RUETTIGER, 18-LORD BARRINGTON
Race 10: 12-A LOTTA LOVE, 3-SILENT SEDITION, 15-SHILLELAGH