|FLEMINGTON: MELBOURNE CUP- 6th NOV 2018|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 2M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Melbourne Cup day is one of the toughest punting days of the year as horses come from everywhere to get the thrill of racing at Flemington. As do backpackers from all over the world to get totally sloshed. We need to begin our race preview with a consumer warning that our tips on Derby Day were absolutely horrendous, so you should seek financial advice before following them. The cup cakes were rather nice though.
On Saturday the track raced fairly, but there did seem to be a bit of an advantage to be on speed or closer to the rails, and inside barriers were important. This wasnít as important in the straight races though, in fact two of the winners came from last and ran down the outside of the field. We actually have major rain forecast heading into Tuesday, which is unusual, as we have had very firm tracks pretty much all spring. They have also moved the rail out to OUT 2M, which takes away the superior lanes closer to the rails. Assuming we are going to be racing on a seriously rain affected track and they should be coming off the rails and winning running on out wide if the weather forecast holds up (often it doesnít though).
Our first reaction to the Melbourne Cup is ďMehĒ. You would struggle to find 24 horses we cared less about, and find it hard to get enthused about the race these days with so few familiar horses in the field. It is also near to impossible to accurately predict the speed here but it looks slow to us. We have the 21-RUNAWAY as the obviously leader, maybe the 8-ACE HIGH going forward, but suspect they might ride him a bit quieter today from an outside barrier on an unsuitable wet track. Else maybe the 9-MARMELO can go forward, the 15-VENGUER MASQUE will be handy and likes it wet and maybe the 24-ROSTROPOVICH on speed. Doesnít look to be much speed though and suspect there is a good chance one of the internationals will take off very early again as has been the pattern this spring. Except this is Flemington with a long straight and on a wet track and donít think that is going to work this time. Suspect this year something will go for home early out wide, and you will want to be on something steadily working home on the inside with a good run through the race.
The field is heavy with internationals this year, so just on weight of numbers there is a good chance that one that hasnít raced in Australia could win. They finally broke through last year, but it has been a very long drought with dozens of attempts so again find it hard to get carried away if you havenít seen them race here. We are going to put the 2-THE CLIFFSOFMOHER on top, both his runs in Australia have been promising, he looked like he needed a big track and distance when running home well 1st start in Australia in the Caulfield Stakes and then was solid working home in a dash and run Caulfield Cup. Often Caulfield Cup place getters go well in the Melbourne Cup. He looks quite dour and should appreciate the 3200M and Flemington and hopefully he can settle in the first half of field from a good barrier. Looks well over the odds to us at around $17. The 11-YUCATAN is obviously the one to beat coming off a sensational Herbert Power win, and PROTECTIONIST won this race coming off a run on 4th in that race, yet alone a 6 length eased down thrashing. We do think the outside barrier raises some issues though and have a sneaky feeling he may present early in the straight but get run down by another runner. Be interesting to see how the Caulfield Cup winner 1-BEST SOLUTION goes again, he did miss the start in the Caulfield Cup, but that also meant although he was wide he could race in plenty of space and pick up ground. If he dwells this time from an inside barrier he is going to end up very muddled up at the back of the field, and suspect this race is going to be very different tactically. The 17-A PRINCE OF ARRAN is another who has ran very well in two Australian starts and solid staying performance to win on Saturday, and often the winner of that race goes well in this. His wet track form does look a little wobbly though, and not entirely convinced of the strength of what he beat on Saturday, if anything it just re-enforced the form of the favourite. Of the locals, the 22-YOUNGSTAR is well drawn, loves it wet, ran well in the Turnbull and worked home well in the Caulfield Cup where she just got too far back in the run. She is another you would want to see ridden more positive though from a good barrier. The best roughie by a mile this year is the old timer 7-WHO SHOT THE BARMAN who has run well in this race twice before, worked home really well in the Moonee Valley Cup with weight, gets a good weight drop and should have lot of improvement coming off four runs this time in. Plus it would be seriously funny to see a 10 year local beat the best field of international stayers on offer.
Putting the 2-THE CLIFFSOFMOHER on top and good value each way, from the favourite 11-YUCATAN and going to throw the best roughie 7-WHO SHOT THE BARMAN in for third. 22-YOUNGSTAR and 17-A PRINCE OF ARRAN the next best and we will back the top pick each way and take some box quinellas on these runners, and a sneaky bet on the best roughie.
For the rest of the program, Melbourne Cup Day is NOT the day for a serious bet. Pick out some $20 shots (we have picked out plenty in the selections), take some wide quinellas and running doubles and just have some punting fun. We have put in lots of fun, small bets at double figure odds for those having a Melbourne Cup day flutter.
BEST WIN: Race 6: 5-BEAUTY $3 WIN
BEST WIN: Race 6: 2-KHULAASA $3 WIN
Struggling to understand the betting market in this race as these two stand out to us (and plan to go two out in the Early Quad with them), and both are double figure odds. The 5-BEAUTY is unbeaten in 3 careers starts and was the only horse to come wide and win on a dynamite leaders track at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day. The 2-KHULAASA has been super competitive over this distance in quality races last two starts, and the form in particular from last run here has been outstanding. She should be favourite in our opinion but is going around at $11. Both are drawn middle barriers, but should roll forward in a race with little speed and get perfect runs into the race.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 9-…CLAIR CALLING $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 9-…CLAIR CALLING#12,14,17 x $3 = 100%
Little Cup Week hint, the …clair horses tend to go well during Cup Week and have won more than once recently at double figure odds. This one has been racing really well and didnít think he was suited stepping up to the 1700M last start, but still ran well. Much better suited back to the 1400M here, and has drawn well to sit just off the speed and run over the top of them. Back each way at around $10 and anchor in a quinella with the 12-BEAU GESTE, 17-BRAVO TANGO (emerg), 14-MANDELA EFFECT in a race with a short priced favourite.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 2-THECLIFFSOFMOHER $2.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 7: 2,7,9,11,17,22 box x $5 = 33.33%
Overseas stayer who has impressed in two runs in Australia, and at least we have seen him and we can line him up. Ran on well 1st up when looked like he wanted a big track and more distance and its always a good idea to follow Caulfield Cup place getters into the Melbourne Cup, and he was holding his ground well in that race. Drawn well, and looks most likely to take his time and plug away and grind home along the inside and pick his way through the field when others go for home too early and too wide on the track. Think he is over the odds at $16 and should be single figure odds. The Cup quinella often pays well if you can get a long shot into the finish. These are the main chances as we see them and apart from the favourite they are all over $15 so the quinella should pay over $100 with a very even betting market outside the favourite.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 10-MAN OF HIS WORD $5 EW
This horse actually sits the top of our Black Book at the moment and we have been waiting for him to appear again. QLD visitor whose best form is over longer trips, but that isnít necessarily a bad thing down the straight Flemington 1200M. New stable and looks like a new type of preparation after being winless for 2 years with many placings. He was hopelessly held up for runs 1st up at Caulfield against many of these and probably should have won that race when he couldnít get clear for most of the straight with plenty to give. Strong finisher drawn wide is likely to be a plus too as suspect wider will be better down the straight. These straight races are always open but happy to make him the best each way bet of the day at around $18 and we have been keen to back him the next time he appears.
QUINELLA: Race 2: 5-MAMZELLE TESS, 7-HECTOPASCAL, 11-SEDUCTIVE MISS x $3 = 100%
We quite like this little value quinella early in the day. The 5-MAMZELLE TESS at $4.50 doesnít win very often, but has been super consistent at long odds in much harder races. The really important thing here is the rain, her win strike rate is < 10% on dry tracks and close to 50% on wet tracks! There are two value runners, the 7-HECTOPASCAL at $18 who is fitter for 3 runs in and will be running on late, and the 11-SEDUCTIVE MISS at $21 who was held up for runs last start
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 17-PRINCE ALBY $2.50 EW
No name stayer from a small stable who seems to be having a break out campaign. Fitter for the 4 runs in and have been competitive and improving at each run. Was an eye catching run coming from last at Caulfield two starts back and then solid staying win at Geelong. Has drawn wide and would probably want to settle more in the first half of the field to be competitive against these, but also not convinced how well some of these runners are going so happy to have something each way on this one at around $34.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 7-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN $1 EW
Just a novelty speculative bet on the Best Roughie in the Melbourne Cup. He has run well in this race before, was injured and didnít make the field last year, ran a good 5th in 2016, 11th in 2015 (but not beaten far at all), and 3rd in 2014. Funny thing is his 11th is the actual closest he has got in terms of lengths from the winner. Fitter for the 4 runs in and was running on really well with weight in the MV Cup. Mainly it is going to be a really funny story if a 10 year old local beats the internationals, with extra spice seeing jockey Melham is on board, who was just bobbed out in a photo in the Caulfield Cup. Novelty Story of the Day bet at around $41.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 10-FIFTY STARS at around $2.40
The Lay Of the Day won on Saturday, and we might be up for the Cup Week Lay Winning Streak Challenge this week, but what the heck lets take on the shortest priced favourite of the day. If only to help out the punters who have backed this one at $2.10 and $1.85 the last two starts when beaten, who think that $2.40 represents good odds and a sensible punting investment on Melbourne Cup day in a field of 15 with heaps of chances. He goes OK, but there are plenty of solid chances in this and definitely doesnít deserve to be these odds. So here you go, we have made it Lay Of the Day, just to help you out. Get on.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 8,9 : 3,7,15 / 3,5,7,8,10 x $5 = 33.33%
There is always plenty of value in the Running Doubles on Cup Day. In Race 8, we are keen on the 7-KIWIA who ran on well first up and will be suited with some rain and a run on track, and the long shot the 15-SILVERA who has really good wet track form. Pay attention to the scratchings here, we tipped the 3-LIFE LESS ORDINARY who ran a good 5th at long odds here on Saturday so if he backs up put him in again, if he doesnít put in the 13-KAONIC instead. In the straight race, Race 9, there is a wide open field, we have already backed the 10-MAN OF HIS WORD, but plenty of value about runners like the 7-SNITZKRAFT (leading outside rail), 3-STELLAR COLLISION (ran on well against pattern last time), 5-BRAVE SONG (good down the straight) and 8-DEMONSTRATE (likes it wet and drawn wide). Think the running double in these two races pays big Ė just need to find the bloody winners!
Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. GRAB PHOTO WITH BART STATUE
Race 2: 5-MAMZELLE TESS, 7-HECTOPASCAL, 11-SEDUCTIVE MISS
Race 3: 9-…CLAIR CALLING, 12-BEAU GESTE, 17-BRAVO TANGO (emerg), 14-MANDELA EFFECT
Race 4: 17-PRINCE ALBY, 12-STEEL PRINCE, 5-CHEQUERED FLAG
Race 5: 6-CHABREET, 7-FINE DANE, 3-LEGEND OF CONDOR
Race 6: 5-BEAUTY, 2-KHULAASA, 12-MIRETTE
Race 7: 2-THECLIFFSOFMOHER, 11-YUCATAN, 7-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN
Race 8: 7-KIWIA, 3-LIFE LESS ORDINARY, 15-SILVERA, 13-KAONIC
Race 9: 10-MAN OF HIS WORD, 7-SNITZKRAFT, 3-STELLAR COLLISION
Race 10: 7-OUR CROWN MISTRESS, 17-SPANNER HEAD, 12-SAVATIANO