Great day racing on Derby Day with even racing pattern and plenty of stars stepping up. We have had favourites salute so far this spring in the Caulfield Guineas, Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, Victoria Derby which is rare indeed. Absolute stack of rain coming through on Monday and this track will come up strongly rain affected, the main question is how many showers come through on Tuesday meaning it won’t allow the track to improve and recover. Big fields and big day of racing will cut this track up, and they will be winning off the rails down the middle of the track. Down the straight outside barriers will be better and you can probably just box up outside barriers and still land good collects.
Flemington is rated a SOFT(7) Monday afternoon with the rain clearing, and although the track drains really well there is no sun or wind around to assist drying. With more showers to come later tonight and again on race day think the track stays firmly in this range for the Melbourne Cup, if not a little worse.
We had a string of favourites on Derby Day and multi backers will have overflowing accounts but Melbourne Cup Day is never that straight forward and we have thrown plenty of nice value horses in the selections. There are a few $3 favourites floating around but not sure they are worth backing on Cup Day. Box up wide quinellas and throw in plenty of long shots. As there is plenty to bet on we are going to double up to $100 today and have a bet in most of the races and try and grab ourselves a nice box quinella somewhere along the way. Minor race day updates below for scratchings.
For Spring Campaign 2025 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN Race 6: 5-SAINT GEORGE $10 WIN
We don’t like to go backing anything under $4 on Melbourne Cup day and this is one of the weaker races of the day with lots of out of form horses. This one actually ran in the Melbourne Cup last year and put in some promising runs last spring and has only had one run back this time in when he was launching late in the Seymour Cup. Strong staying type who should be running on late down the middle of the course here and suited up in distance. Plus of course he is grey and it is wet! Straight out at around $4.50.
BEST EACH WAY Race 4: 9-BOLD SECRET $5 EW, QUINELLA 8,9,12,13 x $6 = 100%
This one put in a great run at his first start which was down the straight and he was flying through the field late. Given a break and probably not suited as a drop back horse around MV on an on-speed track last start. Back to the straight here and drawn middle should see him finishing on strongly again. Back each way at around $10 and there looks to be a nice value quinella here tending toward the outside barriers, watch out for the 8-THAT’SMYMONEYBROTHER strongly finishing on from the outside barrier, the 12-WINTERY should lead down the outside rail and might be hard to run down, and the 13-CHOIR POINT looks to have some ability off her maiden win.
BEST EACH WAY Race 5: 14-FERAGO $6 EW
We are basically the Number #1 fan of this tough old stayer and we have been waiting for him to get into the right race which might be today. He loves wet tracks and distance and he has been running well dropping out in slowly run staying races on firm tracks and running on for 4ths with the tempo not suiting. Really good in both the Geelong and Mornington Cups off unsuitable speeds. Finally gets out to 2800M here, and onto a seriously rain affected track which is what he wants. Big field and he has drawn wide, so we don’t want him out the back here, jockey Newitt knows to push him out early and get him to settle mid-field and he can ride this tough stayer out. He does have a bit of a Flemington hoodoo, but this race just looks so suitable. Each way at around $20 coming home strongly down the middle of the track in the pink colours.
BEST EACH WAY Race 7: 24-VALIANT KING $7 EW, QUINELLA 3,10,21,24 x $5 = 50%
It is not often we post a Suggested Bet in the Melbourne Cup, but really like the way this one is going. Came out of nowhere here two starts back to win at long odds, and the speed was fast that day and he came from close to last and went past the whole field and won with something still in reserve. Working home well late in the Caulfield Cup is always a positive sign and back to Flemington and up in distance should all be positives. Drawn nicely to get to the middle of the track and he may settle mid-field or better today, he has dropped back in the field from outside barriers last two starts. And of course he is grey and it’s wet! Back each way at around $9 and the Melbourne Cup box quinella is the 21-RIVER OF STARS on-speed and tough over 3200M, the 2-BUCKAROO with the class edge and form (even on wet ground), the 10-FLATTEN THE CURVE as the best international and most appropriate post COVID Melbourne Cup winner ever, and the roughie the 3-ARAPAHO.
BEST EACH WAY Race 9: 14-PONDALOWIE $5 EW
This one has been racing extremely well, without actually getting into the finish of his races. He keeps teasing us with strong finishing 4ths and 5ths, but they have been in stronger races and he looks to have struck a winnable race here. Track conditions should suit him running on late down the middle of the track and he just needs them to go fast enough in the lead to let him run on. Looks ready to win. Each way at around $14 is good value at the moment, and suspect he starts under $10 come race time.
BEST EACH WAY Race 10: 12-PERSIAN SPIRIT $7 EW, QUINELLA 7,8,12,14,19 x $5 = 50%
Surprised with a win at $50 first-up this preparation here down the straight, but he has continued to race extremely well, not beaten far the start after and then working home well last start at Geelong on a leaders track. Finally get out to 1400M here which is probably a more suitable trip and he will be coming home strongly again which should be the racing pattern. Looks well suited in this race and keen to bet each way at around $7, the outside barrier shouldn’t be an issue coming to the last race. Another race with good quinella potential, the 7-SUNSHINEINMYPOCKET has been unlucky not to win last two starts and launches late, the consistent 14-HE’LL RIP, and there are two great roughies here, the strong finishing wet track the 19-BOLTSAVER (emerg) who now gets a start with some scratchings, and the 5-COTEHELE ready to do something off last two good runs.
BEST ROUGH Race 2: 20-GHETTO SUPASTAR (emerg) $2.50 EW
Currently not sure if this one is going to make the field, but he is a good rough chance if he does. Fitter for the two runs back in and he was finishing on strongly last start and looks ready to do something now. Most of his form is on dry tracks, but he just missed at long odds on a wet track here back in February. Main issue for him is finding racing patterns where he can run on, and truly run races, as he can drop back (hence not fussed about the outside barrier). Think he will do something today at around $20.
BEST ROUGH Race 8: 12-TAGLINE $2 EW
Bit surprised about the odds on this one, he has been racing really well and going through his grades and then struck a real smart one at Caulfield last start. Don’t think he ran out the 1600M here and better suited back in distance today. Handles it wet and could be one on the way up, and a few here are going for consolation prizes at the end of their spring campaigns. Rough at around $35.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 2-PALLATION at around $2.70
Sydney visitor who has been racing fairly up there, but back in distance and down the straight and onto a very wet track and not sure why he is so short for. Lots of up and coming sprinters here and one of them probably gets up at odds, so prefer to back some value runners rather than a short-priced favourite.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a working Bureau of Meteorology website.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 3: 2-OBVIOUS
PLACE Race 5: 14-FERAGO
PLACE Race 7: 24-VALIANT KING
PLACE Race 10: 19-BOLTSAVER
Might as well go for an ambitious big collect on Melbourne Cup day centered on genuine wet tracks and coming home on a roughie in the last for around $2500.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 2,3,6,10,21,24 / 2,3,12,15 / 5,14,15 / 5,7,8,12,19 x $20 = 5.5%
We don’t need a big percentage today sure to be a good Quaddie dividend surely (been so many favourites over the last month!)
Feature Race Preview: Race 7: MELBOURNE CUP 3200M GROUP 1
The Melbourne Cup field this year is very international heavy which makes it extremely difficult to do the form and line these up with confidence. Punters seem to really struggle to sort out the internationals too and the betting markets often aren’t really a good guide to which one of them is going to run a race. The last three internationals to win without a local start first have started at $26, $9, and $15 and there have been plenty of well-backed internationals who have failed in that time (big shout out to the 4-VAUBAN).
In terms of traditional form lines, the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate are the way to go and it is often the place getters from those races who are the ones to watch out for. Out of the last 30 years, 9 winners have come through the Caulfield Cup (4 winners, 3 placed, two others) and 7 winners though the Cox Plate (2 winners, 2 placed, 3 others). Most of the Melbourne spring features have traditional form lines that tend to hold up year after year, but the Melbourne Cup is really all over the place, especially in the last ten years. You don’t even need to be in winning form for this race, as last year’s winner proved, its more about getting a good run and running out a strong 3200M. Always better to be drawn well and settling mid-field or better, it’s really hard to make a run from well back in the field with lots of tiring horses all around you. The wet conditions this year are going to be the key, need a really strong staying type to run out 3200M on a seriously rain affected track. Hard to be confident about the form till we see how much rain comes and how the track comes up.
Expecting a genuine tempo here with the 13-CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD wanting to come across from an outside barrier putting early speed into the race with the 12-SMOKIN’ ROMANS the likely leader going forward, and 21-RIVER OF STARS, 22-ROYAL SUPREMACY likely to be handy and on-speed. Behind these the 7-FURTHUR , 19-ATHABASCAN and 24-VALIANT KING will settle more handy today. Winner is likely to get out to the middle of the track though, so looking for something coming around the leaders just after they turn and into the best going.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-AL RIFFA is the international with the most spruik factor this year, “best international ever” etc, etc, etc, and comes into this with an excellent win strike rate and form through the best international lead-in races. He looks extremely dour and outside barrier probably suits this one so he can race in clear running room and grinding into the race, and down the middle of the track may be the best going by this time. Local jockey on board is a big plus. Hefty 59kgs to carry which isn’t easy to do in a Melbourne Cup, and giving 6-8 kgs to many of these on a very wet track is a tough ask. There will be plenty of experts talking this one up, and he is probably some chance in a tough slog on a very wet track grinding away down the middle of the track in a truly run 3200M. Conditions other than that would be happy to pass. Chance, but weight history is against and if we are going to back an international probably prefer better odds.
2-BUCKAROO has class WFA form and in the Melbourne Cups of old he would be right in this race. Was seriously unlucky in the Cups last year, left it too late running into the finish of the Caulfield Cup, and then went way too early and too wide in the Melbourne Cup in a much criticised ride. Jockey Williams on is a huge plus. He has been right in the finish of every start this time in at the top level and has much more consistent form than most of these and at a higher grade. Creates a lot of interest off tough Cox Plate second. He has the class turn of foot to win a slowly run 3200M Melbourne Cup on a dry track, just not sure he can win with 57kgs on a heavily rain affected track in a tough staying slog. His Caulfield Cup and Turnbull runs last year were both on soft tracks, just once it gets worse than that it’s an issue. If this track comes up better side of soft he is right in this race and definitely goes in the selections. Form is too good to ignore here in a pretty mediocre form race. Strong chance.
3-ARAPAHO loves the wet going and is proven over the 3200M having won the Sydney Cup earlier this year. He has been competitive in most races since then and had excuses for a poor run in the Metropolitan. Forgive the Bendigo Cup run too, he was at the back of the field and widest in the home straight and the best ground was on-speed on the rails and he chased well enough. We had a winner come out of this race last year off a similar run. Ran mid-field in this race in 2022, it would be pretty rare to come back 3 years later to win. Probably drops back from an outside barrier. Wouldn’t be ruling this one out, think definitely put him in your wide trifectas especially the wetter the track gets. Rough place.
4-VAUBAN has serious form in this area (and not in a good way either), having been spruiked as the international to beat in both the 2023 and 2024 Melbourne Cups and disappointing. Thumbed his nose at punters when transferred to local Waterhouse stable and winning at his first Australian trained start, but continues to mix his form. Form this preparation is only fair, he was racing in restricted room in the Metropolitan, and then apparently he didn’t handle Caulfield turns in the Caulfield Cup. Better suited spacious Flemington and out to the 3200M, but likely to get crowded for room here from an inside barrier which may be an issue in a big field. Wet track no issue. Horses normally win this at their first attempt, would be rare for a horse to come back and win at their third attempt after not really being a factor in previous tries. Prefer to risk.
5-CHEVALIER ROSE is a Japanese horse coming into this off a 14th, 12th, 7th and 12th so hardly showing form leading into this race. These Japanese horses seems to love firm and dry tracks and the torrential rain leading into Cup Day must be a major concern. No idea of racing pattern, has dropped well back in recent runs, but drawn well and used to racing in big fields so you would think they would try and take up a good position. Likely to get badly cluttered for runs if he drops back in the field like previous starts. Basically a total unknown. No
6-PRESAGE NOCTURNE is a French international who has done punters the favour of going around in the Caulfield Cup and it was a pretty good run, finishing just behind the placings at long odds. That was on a very firm track and he looks to prefer wet tracks and sure to be plenty of improvement to come off that race, plus out to bigger Flemington track and distance. Overseas videos shows he can make a long sustained run and seems to have the right racing style to be a factor here. International jockey on board means you are always taking a risk and they should probably add a bonus for being brave enough to back international jockeys as pretty much anything can happen. Well drawn, in form, runs distance, handles wet – so ticks a lot of boxes here - and of course most importantly on very wet tracks you want to back grey horses. Strong chance.
7-MIDDLE EARTH kicked off his Australian form with a bang in March this year and went around well-supported in an Australian Cup. Big hopes going into the spring and even though he has ran in some unsuitable races, he really hasn’t figured or shown enough to get us interested from a punting point of view. Did little in the Caulfield Cup and well beaten home by many going around here. Dropped back in class to a weaker JRA Cup and he was still well beaten and hard to see the Melbourne Cup winner coming out of that race. Doesn’t have proven 3200M or wet track form to try and aid the case for his chances here. Just doesn’t seem to be going well enough. No
8-MEYDAAN is a dour staying type international without a huge turn of foot and Caulfield Cup was probably not the right race for these sorts. Plugged away OK in the Caulfield Cup, but he is meeting a half dozen or so who beat them home there. Unexposed on wet tracks and his form stats aren’t that impressive, not like he was a strong winning strike rate or the like. Likely to drop well back here from an outside barrier and will probably stay out the trip, but not fast enough to figure in the placings. No.
9-ABSURDE is an international who has been around in the Melbourne Cup before, so we have a good feel for his ability. Not far off them in 2023 and then he was a little unlucky not getting a clear run when finishing on well here last year. Has come out early this year for a warm-up run in the Caulfield Cup which was fair just behind the place getters, and don’t mind an inside barrier for this one as he raced well last year in similar circumstances. Would be pretty rare for a horse to come back and win the Melbourne Cup at their third attempt, but he has been competitive last two tries and is probably a pretty decent place chance. Place.
10-FLATTEN THE CURVE is a French horse with American form for a truly international flavour. Coming into this with winning form is a big plus, and looks to run out a strong 3200M. International jockey on board. He has actually won 6 of his last 7 starts which is worth paying attention to. Drawn wide is good to get to the best ground and grind home out wide, and wet track form seems pretty good. Watch the betting market on this one, doesn’t come from a traditional international stable and be interest to see what punters do with this one. This is probably the international we are most interested in, he looks like he really lengthens home over his staying distances. Put this one in your wider trifectas. Rough.
11-LAND LEGEND hasn’t really been doing much this campaign, ran on nicely in the Underwood Stakes and looked like he was running into form, but he hasn’t really been competitive last two starts. Ran third in the Caulfield Cup last year and then went forward in the Melbourne Cup and over-raced and stuck on pretty well. Drawn wide here and probably drops back this year and not sure about this one on wet ground. Just not racing as well as last year – and he wasn’t good enough then either. No.
12-SMOKIN’ ROMANS is a front running stayer who is well-exposed with 53 career starts. Proven on wet ground. Stole the Queen Elizabeth with a front running ride here last spring, but most of his recent good form is in lower grade country cups. He has the most career starts of any runner here and hard to imagine him winning a Melbourne Cup at start number 54. Started favourite in the Caulfield Cup in 2022 and ran midfield in the Melbourne Cup that year when he was in much better Spring form. Hard to see his form this time in being good enough for this. No.
13-CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD is another international who is now in a local stable and has only won 1 from 8 local starts and that was in a 5 horse field. Competitive enough in the lower tier staying races, but showed little in the Geelong Cup as the lead in run and he was fading badly late there when on-speed and in the best ground on an on-pace day. Drawn barrier 24 and they normally race handy so quite likely to press forward here and put some early speed into the race. Just doesn’t seem to be going well enough for this. No.
14-HALF YOURS has been the boom stayer of the spring and was confidently supported to win the Caulfield Cup and he has the best and most consistent form coming into this race. Proven on wet ground, in fact he may even go better on soft ground. Impressive winning strike rate. The Caulfield Cup was run as a true staying test, but the question mark here is going to be the 3200M. Well drawn, he can settle handy and he has the turn of foot to take splits in the field and dash clear. Always have to respect the Caulfield Cup winner into the Melbourne Cup, but just get the feeling he will hit the front early in the straight here and get outstayed by some more dour 3200M types, in particular those who finished directly behind him last start. Prefer place.
15-MORE FELONS ran midfield in the Melbourne Cup in 2023 in first Australian preparation, and then followed up with a good preparation thereafter. Injury break of over a year after that and hasn’t quite got back to his best form this time in, but hasn’t been that far away. Strong finish in the Metropolitan, and then whacked away well last start. He looks a dour staying type, but main issue is that he is likely to drop back to last here from an outside barrier. Likely to be working home well late and maybe a rough outside place chance at best, but he hasn’t measured up in this race before. Maybe super rough place chance.
16-ONESMOOTHOPERATOR was very impressive winning the MV Cup when swooping around the field and won with something in hand, and did similar to win the Geelong Cup last year. Ran on well in the Melbourne Cup last year after settling well back and finding a bit of trouble. Actually hasn’t done much overseas in the meantime, but seems to grow another leg when he comes down to Australia and he was well backed to win last start. Well drawn, but tends to drop back in the run and might need to come through the field here. Seriously rain affected track might be an issue for this one. Geelong Cup win last year was pretty impressive and he is probably over the odds at $26 for an impressive last start winner into this race. Chance, but prefer dry ground.
17-FURTHUR is a lightly raced Northern Hemisphere 3YO and these types have gone well in this race before. Has gone forward in his races before and drawn well here so may take up a handy position in running today. Form guide says query in wet but not sure that is a proven and verifiable fact and may be Fake News. Other than that – honestly no idea here. Note has been bought by Australian interests and local jockey on boards, and these normally tend to go better in later local preparations. Unknown.
18-PARCHMENT PARTY is the first ever American racehorse to contest the Melbourne Cup and the VRC have been nice enough to put up a large McDonalds sign on the grandstand to make him feel at home. All his form is on dirt, and when we are talking dirt, it’s more like mud when it gets wet so even a HEAVY (10) may end up being too firm for this one. Tends to drop back in the run and doubt inside barrier is going to suit here and not much interest from the betting market. A lot are tipping him to run last and they may be correct. No
19-ATHABASCAN is a super tough stayer who is a bit hit and miss, but he suddenly ran into form with an excellent MV Cup run. Strong finishing second in the Sydney Cup in 2024 says he should run out the 3200M and career stats say he may be better on wet tracks, of which he hasn’t struck many in Australia. Barrier 1 and surely they go forward here and race handy today to take advantage of the barrier. Form isn’t good enough to win this, but no reason why he can’t roll on into the placings at long odds as long the inside going isn’t too badly affected. Rough place.
20-GOODIE TWO SHOES is a lightly raced 7YO mare who maintains a good win strike rate and stable mate to the (1). Coming into this with consistent winning form, though form stats do suggest firmer tracks are better. International jockey on board. Has gone forward before, but doubt they do that from an outside barrier today. Lightly weighted but probably passing on this one on information available. No.
21-RIVER OF STARS was really tough on speed over the Sydney Cup 3200M earlier this year and had been doing WFA warm up runs through the traditional spring races before running a huge race at $100 in the Caulfield Cup. Really enjoyed the fast tempo in the Caulfield Cup and fought the finish right out against the (14), and meets that one 2.5 kgs better off today and also likely to run out the 3200M stronger so can easily turn the tables today. Good chance they go forward and either lead or sit handy, question might be if they can get off the inside lane in the straight with the better going likely to be out wider. He just looks a straight out dour staying type and doesn’t have the pizazz of some of the other runners here, but looks a genuine chance based off the last run. Will be up on speed whilst a lot of the other runners are dodging tiring horses back in the field. Chance.
22-ROYAL SUPREMACY is a super consistent Sydney stayer and he was probably the unlucky runner in the Caulfield Cup. He was playing up in the gates there and was slowly away and had to settle well back in the field instead of his normal on-speed racing pattern and worked through the field nicely before the turn to be just behind the placegetters. Quite noticeable he tends to really stay out these trips and tends to pull away from them towards the end. Proven on wet ground. Coming up to 8th run here of a long hard preparation is the main concern. Jockey going for back to back Melbourne Cup wins. Drawn wide and much better ridden forward, if they can get up near the speed here he is going to stick on pretty well and is a really good place chance for trifectas. Place.
23-TORRANZINO has gone up another level this preparation and thought he was a decent country middle distance galloper but the stable have managed to get him into a Melbourne Cup which is an outstanding effort. Strong effort to just miss in the Warrnambool Cup and if you handle the wet track there you will handle conditions basically anywhere. Considered campaign to get him through to win the Geelong Cup (noting that he started longer odds there than the favourite who he had beat home the start previous) and quite surprised he seems to be really running out 2500M races strongly. Winning form coming into this. Outside barrier is a major issue and probably see him back to last and has to run out the 3200M here. Probably works home well for top ten but can’t see him being in the finish.
24-VALIANT KING has shot out of nowhere to the top of Melbourne Cup calculations over the last few weeks. International stayer who has had a few staying preparations down under and hadn’t really done much, although he was unlucky in his first start in the Caulfield Cup 2023. Contested both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups last year and didn’t really do that much. His long shot win here at Flemington two starts back was outstanding, he came from close to last off a furious tempo and went past the whole field to win with something in hand, and the form from that race has held up. Had to drop back to last in the Caulfield Cup from an outside barrier and came weaving through the field nicely into the placings. Well drawn here, good chance he can go forward and sit handy and much better suited back to Flemington and should run out a strong 3200M. Strong chance.
Summary:
We will know a lot more here once we know how much rain comes through, but assuming a track worse side of soft and possibly heavy and middle of the track being the best going. The horses we are most keen on here are the placegetters from the Caulfield Cup the 24-VALIANT KING and the 21-RIVER OF STARS, that race was genuinely run and they weren’t far behind the winner and think they can beat that one home today over 3200M. Putting the 24-VALIANT KING on top, the Flemington win was astounding, the Caulfield Cup run was excellent and he may settle handier today from a better barrier out in space and run into the middle of the track at the right time. The 21-RIVER OF STARS came out of the blue last start, but he can run out a strong 3200M on-speed and he may just keep going whilst the others out the back try and run on past tiring horses. On a track better side of soft definitely putting the 2-BUCKAROO into the selections, and we probably have to put him in regardless and stick with him after pushing his chances in the Cox Plate. The international we are most interested in is the 10-FLATTEN THE CURVE who has also been well-backed and for those seeking wider exotic trifecta glory the 3-ARAPAHO is the recommendation and elevate him on a seriously wet track as the best roughie here.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. NO BET.
Race 2: 14-GIGGENBACH, 3-MAKDANE, 20-GHETTO SUPASTAR (emerg), 7-BRAVE MISS
Race 3: 4-DIFFERENT GRAVY, 9-ARABIAN PRINCE, 2-OBVIOUS
Race 4: 9-BOLD SECRET, 8-THAT’SMYMONEYBROTHER, 12-WINTERY
Race 5: 14-FERAGO, 10-GOLDEN CENTURY, 11-RAGING BULL
Race 6: 5-SAINT GEORGE, 6-ATHANATOS, 13-FLYING VALLEY
Race 7: 24-VALIANT KING, 21-RIVER OF STARS, 2-BUCKAROO
Race 8: 2-NAVY PILOT, 12-TAGLINE, 15-LUDLUM
Race 9: 14-PONDALOWIE, 15-SURFIN’ BIRD, 5-BOSSY NIC
Race 10: 12-PERSIAN SPIRIT, 7-SUNSHINEINMYPOCKET, 19-BOLTSAVER (emerg), 5-COTEHELE
