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CAULFIELD : MEMSIE STAKES - 30TH AUG 2008

Track: GOOD (3) - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 11M

Betting Portfolio ($50): Rail is out 11M here, which is an awful long way, so expect them to be forming long orderly queues to come around the home turn, and don’t stand too close to the fence unless you like a hoof in the face. This meeting last year the rail was out 10M, and the racing was fairly even - probably tending towards on pacers. Good chance you will want to be on the on pacers today, and look for those well drawn (barriers extra important), who will race forward. Forecast is for rain developing for Sat, but will take a bit to affect the track. There is a distinct lack of speed in many of the races too, with most races having obvious picks and the rest of the field cluttered with horses resuming from winter holidays, so this is a program to tread very lightly in. Have some play bets, go wide in trifectas and first fours for small percentages and just throw in those well drawn - sure to be some big dividends in large unpredictable fields RESULTS : Got the racing pattern totally wrong - rails are off, and winners are coming out wide in the straight. Follow up those who stuck on on the rails cause really don't think it was the best ground. BEST BET : Race 1: 5-SPARKLING SATINE $20 WIN 2nd W=$2.80 QUNIELA : Race 1: 5-SPARKLING SATINE, 2-JACQUELINE ROUGE x $5 (scr) $5 This one has been unlucky at all 3 runs this time in, held up for runs badly at Flem 1st up, then trapped back on inside mid field most of last 600M at MV, before being trapped out wide all of the way here last start. Looking for the 1600M, probably starts favourite, will drop back a little, so maybe take a saver quinella with the likely leader who should get a soft lead. RESULTS : Starts favourite, little unlucky again, but had enough chances for now. Best bet runs 2nd which is a rather frequent occurrence. BEST EACH WAY : Race 5: 7-MONET RULES $7.50 EW 3rd W=$10.20, P=$2.90 = 7.50 x 2.90 = $21.75 Actually happy to take on the favourite and champion mare 1-MISS ANDRETTI in the sprint - interesting she had drawn barrier 1 - best races are when she stalks outside her prey. Lots of speed in this race - the 9, 11,12,13 and 15, which means she might struggle to get out, especially with the rail so far out. Keen to have something on 7-MONET RULES 1st up, goes very well fresh, probably best on tracks with some give in them, but drawn to sit just off abundant speed and get a clear crack at them. Thereabouts in Group 1 sprints and looks a nice bet at odds today. RESULTS : Gets the run as expected and goes down fighting in a close finish - probably just come out a little too early. Obviously something horribly wrong with 1-MISS ANDRETTI who drifts like nothing on course - poor creatures on the TAB still sent it out a close to even money favourite when $3.50 was available on course - never seen anything like it. Can we claim some points for being one of the few tipsters around who dared to take her on and tip against her? (even if it was for the wrong reason?) Was definitely the lay bet of the day. BEST ROUGH : Race 2: 12-ARCTIC SPRING $2.50 EW Having a bit of a play here in a tough race which is likely to produce a value winner and value multiples. This one was a huge run last start, when held up for runs at top of straight and worked home really well, having to change runs a few times. To be honest, back in distance here probably doesn’t suit, and likely to drop well back, but think is worth following - if not today, next start. RESULTS : Not that far behind them, keep an eye on this one, probably wants some more distance. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more. Race 5: Box Quinella : 6,7,11,12,15(scr) = $5 $2 3rd 7-MONET RULES W=$10.20, If the short priced favourite does get jammed on the rails in Race 5, then will be some value in the quinella, so leave her out, aim for glory and box up the main chances (6,7) with the on pacers (11,12,15) RESULTS : Right in theory - just the wrong numbers - short priced favourite drifts like nothing and absloute killing to be made on the multiples as a result - it's the other two on pacers - the 9 + 13 that run the places. Ooops SPENT : $50 RETURN : $28.75 NET : $ -21.25

The Tips: Race 1: 5-SPARKLING SATINE, 2-JACQUELINE ROUGE, 4-STELLAMAC Race 2: 11-CHOSEN FLYER, 12-ARCTIC SPRING, 5-FLY HIGHER Race 3: 1-VIVACIOUS SPIRIT , 12-FIRST DRINKS, 5-BRAZEN HUSSEY Race 4: 4-HIPS DON’T LIE, 14-BURGEIS, 3-FERNANDINA Race 5: 7-MONET RULES, 6-COMMANDING HOPE, 1-MISS ANDRETTI Race 6: 9-WEEKEND HUSSLER, 7-MALDIVIAN, 10-ALAMOSA Race 7: 4-CONQUERING, 8-MORETON BAY, 6-BIRD DANCER Race 8: 2-SONIC QUEST, 8-SOUND JOURNEY, 12-QUEEN OF QUEENS

RACE 1: RESULTS

Tips: 5-SPARKLING SATINE 2nd W=$2.80 2-JACQUELINE ROUGE SCR 4-STELLAMAC

RACE 2: RESULTS

Tips: 11-CHOSEN FLYER 12-ARCTIC SPRING 5-FLY HIGHER 2nd W=$4.40

RACE 3: RESULTS

Tips: 1-VIVACIOUS SPIRIT 2nd W=$2.80 12-FIRST DRINKS 5-BRAZEN HUSSEY SCR

RACE 4: RESULTS

Tips: 4-HIPS DON’T LIE 14-BURGEIS 3-FERNANDINA

RACE 5: RESULTS

Tips: 7-MONET RULES 3rd W=$10.20 6-COMMANDING HOPE 1-MISS ANDRETTI

RACE 6: RESULTS

Tips: 9-WEEKEND HUSSLER 1st W=$1.80 7-MALDIVIAN 2nd W=$12.30 10-ALAMOSA Quinella $8.70

RACE 7: RESULTS

Tips: 4-CONQUERING 1st W=$5.70 8-MORETON BAY 3rd W=$3.50 6-BIRD DANCER

RACE 8: RESULTS

Tips: 2-SONIC QUEST 8-SOUND JOURNEY 12-QUEEN OF QUEENS

RACE 6: MEMSIE STAKES 1400M GROUP 2 WFA

Tips: 9-WEEKEND HUSSLER 1st W=$1.80 7-MALDIVIAN 2nd W=$12.30 10-ALAMOSA Quinella $8.70

Others: 11 Pace: GENUINE Leaders : 7-MALDIVIAN, 10-ALAMOSA, 17-GOTTA HAVE HEART (emerg) Handy : 2-POMPEII RULER, 3-CASUAL PASS, 4-SIR SLICK, 8-RUBISCENT, 9-WEEKEND HUSSLER, 11-SCENIC BLAST Back : 1-SIRMIONE, 5-SARRERA, 6-DOURO VALLEY, 13-ANAMATO, 14-C’EST LA GUERRE , 15-PLAYWRIGHT, 16-VOLCANIC STAR Chances: 7-MALDIVIAN was a super duper effort resuming in the Liston - had to go out and chase down the two on pacers who set a pretty fast pace, and kicked on well in the straight to be right in the finish. Had his spring glory cruelly taken from him last year and aiming to seek vengeance this spring - then sell the blockbuster movie rights to Hollywood. Really seriously liked the 1st up run, and wouldn’t be surprised if he is the one to beat this spring. Drawn barrier 1, probably goes forward. Last couple of preparations he has hit a bit of a flat spot 2nd up - including well beaten when favourite here in C.F.Orr in the Autumn, but just get the feeling he is revved up and ready to go. Will be right in this race on the speed and no surprise to see him pull it off either. Probably go better today on firmer track too. Strong chance. 2nd W=$12.30 9-WEEKEND HUSSLER is still the boom horse on the scene, proven in open company as a 3YO, and now we are playing the waiting game to see if he measures up as a 4YO. No reason to believe he won’t - although often the spring 3YOs fall flat the next season, he was a definite cut about the rest. Still plenty of merit in 1st up run - was on a wet track, it was a very solidly run 1400M 1st up with plenty of speed, coming off an injury set back and the jockey probably erred slightly in coming out early and wide - he could win his 3YO races doing this as he was so dominant, but won’t be as dominant this time in and will need to be ridden accordingly. All in all - plenty of excuses, plenty of improvement to come. Drawn perfectly here, and should settle on the speed. Obviously the one to beat - question is what are the correct odds for him? Considering there was nothing between him, the (7) and the(10) last start, they both have improvement to come, the (11) is up and coming - this is a genuine test today of where he is going this spring. So think you would probably want around $2.50 about him- cause he does have genuine dangers - the $1.85 currently on offer on the TAB looks far too short for us. One to beat, and most of these aren’t at peak so on best form should be able to deal with them. 1st W=$1.80 10-ALAMOSA is coming off a great 3YO season with an impressive win strike rate, and showed he was going to be a factor this spring with a pretty impressive 1st up effort - jockey admitted he went too wide on him, wasn’t beaten far behind the best of them. Drawn inside and will go forward - blinkers go on today first time too, so good chance he could even end up leading these. With the racing pattern likely to favour on pacers, the good draw and a bit of untapped potential definitely has to be respected. Chance. 11-SCENIC BLAST came out and slaughtered them 1st up, under a tight hold. Was always promising as a 3YO, plus was he could race handy and put himself into a race. Best form was at Caulfield too. The (9) had his measure last spring, but this one is a growing boy, probably been eating his carrots, and it all starts again in the spring, so who knows this time around. Drawn out a little, but should be able to settle in first half of field and put himself into this race. 2nd up and up 200M. 1st up win was very impressive. Guess you might just want to see him at WFA, but a definite chance. Place: 1-SIRMIONE is 1st up coming off a Group 1 win in the Autumn. Totally rejuvenated galloper after McKinnon win last Nov, source of severe frustration and the odd nervous rash before that. Drawn out and does like to get a fair way out of ground, so not likely to be suited here. Worth noting though made good ground 1st up last time in to not be beaten far in Group 1 1400M race, and a closer look shows 1st up form is actually OK. Outside barrier going to be a problem though. Maybe throw in as a rough place chance if you are going for those monster First Fours. 5-SARRERA underwent a rather extreme makeover going from old time wet track stayer to Group 1 super star over the Autumn. Always shown a fair bit of ability, and put in some huge performances carrying big weights. Actually first up form is not too bad - 2 wins and 2 placings from 7 starts - and last time in ran on well for 4th over 1400M. Probably going to be set a more ambitious campaign this time in - and might just go on with his new found form. Drawn well, and probably going to be finishing well on the inside - so put in as a place chance on the basis of juicy odds and OK 1st up form. 8-RUBISCENT managed to pull off a major league upset here in the Underwood last spring. Started off OK again in Autumn, then didn’t go on with it when asked to perform at the top level. Does have good fresh form, and probably still capable of pulling out a run fresh here. Best form is here too. Drawn out, but can probably take up a decent position on the speed here. Probably will not be far off them, sure one of the main chances will have his measure, but definite place chance. SCR Sacking: 2-POMPEII RULER has been largely forgotten, loomed as the next big thing after sterling effort in 2006 Cox Plate and 2007 Aus. Cup win. Would’ve really peaked last spring and was looking like he would be the WFA star at the time - but only managed one run before serious injury. Given the full year off, still an absolute stack of potential and improvement to come in this one, if he struck his best form would be a major contender this spring. Showed he was going along OK in recent barrier trial. Normally races handy. Guessing they are probably going a bit light on him coming off injury hoping to get him back, and with full year off will need the run today. Let him run and see how he goes. 3rd W=$25.10 3-CASUAL PASS is another injury plagued galloper attempting another comeback - had the full year off as well. Didn’t quite get back to top form in last preparation in Autumn 2007, but wasn’t far off them and very hard to beat when right and allowed to roll along on the speed. Change of stable might find the trick and given a barrier trial to get him ready for today. Well drawn and likely to settle right on the speed - likely to need the run though. 4-SIR SLICK (NZ) struggled to keep up in the Liston at 1st run in Aus. Normally takes a few runs to find best, and is best ridden on pace - interesting that he was always trailing the field last run. Sort of horse who could lob forward and ran a race at big odds, but can’t ignore the last run - looked pretty darn ordinary so have to pass today. 6-DOURO VALLEY is 1st up and generally does need the run. Always threatened to win a good race, but never quite got there. Definitely needs a dry track so suited here if the rain hasn’t come by this race. Thereabouts last Autumn, without really threatening, and does seem to save best form for Caulfield. Drawn inside, probably drops back 1st up. Pretty sure he is better suited in handicaps and WFA is a bit hot for him. No 12-TUESDAY JOY is 1st up and best form has generally come over longer distances. Given a few barrier trials to get her ready for this, but looks like they weren’t going to push her along too much. Did run a good race 1st up last time in, but her definite racing pattern is she likes to come from behind, and although well drawn, think she might end up well back in this field and struggle to make ground when they go for home. Likely to be coming home - just a little too late. Quite happy to risk today. 13-ANAMATO is a mare with ability who is still talking about the joy rides from her trip to Hollywood as a 3YO kid. Hasn’t really regained her form since that trip, and her win strike rate is starting to look a little shabby around the edges. Last spring was just OK, barely raced since then with two warm up runs only over the winter to shake off the cobwebs. Drawn out and probably drops back and would need to see a return to form before getting interested. No 14-C’EST LA GUERRE (NZ) (emerg) is lightly raced with definite spring intentions. Solid NZ staying form. Drawn out and likely to drop well well back. Watch market 1st up, but guess he is just getting ready for bigger parties later in the spring. 15-PLAYWRIGHT (emerg) was a pretty good 3YO who didn’t have a lot of luck in some of his runs - needs to get into the clear and be given time to wind up. 2nd up here and up 200M and definite disappointment 1st up when expected to show something down the straight, but was going backwards from mid race on. Capable of better, but likely to drop back again here and can’t have off last run unless he produces some sort of medical certificate or note from his mum. No 16-VOLCANIC STAR (emerg) is 2nd up, and didn’t show much 1st up over 1400M at Flem after a year break - when didn’t have any market support either. Stayer who needs ground. No 17-GOTTA HAVE HEART (emerg) is a tough genuine on pacer who would throw an extra dimension into this field if he got a run - would definitely mean a lot of pressure up front. Unlikely to make the field though as 4th emergency - we should know, we were 4th understudy for the kindergarten play and still didn’t get a guernsey even after that horrible swing set accident. 2nd up and up 200M - 1st up run was pretty good and will win a good race this time in, but not in this class. Summary: Most interesting race, should be a great race to watch, not entirely sure it is a great race to bet on. Capacity field is going to make things tough, with a lot just going around as warm ups, and with the rail out 11M really barely enough room to reverse park, yet alone get a clear run for home. With the big field the pace should be fairly genuine, 7-MALDIVIAN, 10-ALAMOSA setting the pace and suspect one or both of these will kick and be right in the finish. Extra pressure up front if 17-GOTTA HAVE HEART (emerg) gets a run which is unlikely. Behind them will be sitting 3-CASUAL PASS, 8-RUBISCENT, 9-WEEKEND HUSSLER, 11-SCENIC BLAST and suspect the finish will be fought out by the ones up on the speed. With excuses from last start, and a cosy run on the speed, 9-WEEKEND HUSSLER should be the one to beat - but would want odds that reflect he is racing in a highly competitive field today. No surprise if 7-MALDIVIAN steps up another notch - can we mention again how good we thought that 1st up run was? - and he is capable of beating the favourite. 10-ALAMOSA another who will race on the speed will be thereabouts, and obviously 11-SCENIC BLAST the other danger. The winner should come from one of these four, and really don’t think there is that much between them at the moment - probably will be in the odds on offer though. So not overly keen to bet, find it hard to confidently pick one out of these four, probably comes down to what odds are on offer. Great race to watch though. One to risk: 12-TUESDAY JOY Roughie: 5-SARRERA SCR RESULTS : Great race with lots of promising runs and many of these are on the up and going to be a serious factor this spring. 9-WEEKEND HUSSLER wins - but does have to work - going to be hard to beat this spring, but to be honest, just don't think he is going to be as dominant as he was as a 3YO and sneaking feeling he is going to come unstuck as the distances increase. Absolutely in raptures over 7-MALDIVIAN, sticks to the rails and the winner really has to work to run him down - and rails was not the best ground. He will be fitter, and will appreciate the extra distance and just think he is going to be the one to follow coming out of this. Promising runs from 2-POMPEII RULER and 10-ALAMOSA and think this is going to be a very competitive spring - so no more taking the short odds about 9-WEEKEND HUSSLER - he does have a fight on this hands.