Check out the best bonus betting offers that are available and stretch your punting dollar further.
- 20 % better odds
- back and lay a horse
- bet during the run
- pre post betting on Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup



CAULFIELD : MEMSIE STAKES - 28th Aug 2010
Track: SLOW(6) - Weather: FEW SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 10M

Betting Portfolio ($50):
The wet weather continues in Melbourne this week, so the track will remain genuinely wet. Showers are clearing going into the weekend, but still far, far too cold. Bring on Spring. Hopefully we will have a Prime Minister by then. Can’t they just take turns ? Didn’t their parents teach them to share?

Doesn’t look like the track will improve much before Saturday. Rail is OUT 10M. Last meeting here 2 weeks back the rail was out 7M and on pacers had close to no hope – strong headwind, and they were coming late and wide. Expect the track to race similarly today. They will be coming off the rails to the middle of the track most of the day, and the wider the better later in the day. Big fields, so steer away from those drawn towards the inside towards the end of the day.

Lots of horses early on in their spring, big fields and rail out and everyone going to the outside (with not much room) is probably going to mean a lot of value winners and place getters. Most of these races have one or two clear cut chances and lots just filling up the numbers. Betting advice is take the solid chances to win, then go wide in trifectas and first fours, throw in long shot horses early on in their campaigns drawn wide barriers regardless of their form. Some of these favourites are going to start pretty short in large fields, likely a few of them are bound to come unstuck.

Going to spread out the bets, mainly trying to snare some of the value place getters that are bound to pop up.

RESULTS : Still no Prime Minister. But we got the racing pattern correct again - they started coming off the rails early in the day and the whole field was sweeping wide for the last couple of races. Although on pacers stuck on OK, always makes it hard for leaders. Tips were hit hard by scratchings, as was the Betting Portfolio which ended up rather dull, but we managed to find a value winner on top and get back most of the money.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 3-STANZOUT $10 EW 2nd W=$3.90, P=$1.50 x $10 = $15
Normally once we get the money on a horse, we get off. Collected on this guy last week, but going to make him an exception to the rule. He just seems to be flying at the moment, drawn out, they should be running on, handles it wet, last 3 starts have all been excellent. The $8 fixed odds at the moment looks way overs. Pretty keen he can keep on winning.
RESULTS : Pre post favourite scratched means the odds were halved. Had a perfect run, was definitely going to be in the finish all the way down the straight, just found one a little bit better in a narrow defeat.

BEST ROUGHIE : Race 2: 12-RATATAT LASS $4 EW SCR $8
QUINELLA : Race 2 : 12-RATATAT LASS, 8-SALINAS x $2 SCR $2
The 8-SALINAS is going to start a firm favourite in this and is going to be hard to beat. This one is fitter for the 2 runs in though, has run on strongly last 2 starts. Probably a bit of a query in the wet, but with all the focus on the favourite is likely to start over the odds. Solid speed in this means she should be able to run on well.

BEST PLACE : Race 7: 5-APPREHEND $2 WIN, $8 PLACE 3rd W=$5.00, P=$2.00 = 8 x 2 = $16
QUINELLA : Race 7 5-APPREHEND , 8-MOUDRE x $5 1st 8-MOUDRE W=$2.30, 3rd 5-APPREHEND W=$5.00
We have another shortie in this race, 8-MOUDRE who is flying and headed to better things this spring. Value runner though is the (5), consistent on pace stayer when in form, loves it wet, fitter for the 2 runs in and will have an edge in race fitness on most of this. Should lob just on the speed and battle away well in the straight. Been running in much harder races, almost fell in the Liston last start when was actually running into the race so looks ready to perform.
RESULTS : 8-MOUDRE goes on his winning way, but 5-APPREHEND runs as predicted. Looked to be running into 2nd all the way down the straight for a gimme quinella, but just didn't quite get there. Some lovely multiples to be had anchoring these two in trifectas and first fours in a big field.

LAY OF THE DAY : Race 8: 3-SOUND JOURNEY at around $4.00 10th W=$4.30 FAV
This one is a consistent type when right around the 1400M and ran well 1st up. Admittedly he has stung us a couple of times before, but happy to take him on today. There was a blanket finish last start, pretty much the whole field is going around again today in this, and he gets stuck with 59.5 kgs, whilst the others that were in the finish have claimed. Looks really badly off in the weights. Plus often when you get multiple runners from the same race something from a new form line proves to be better. Happy to take on.
RESULTS : Never looks likely and an easy lay of a favourite in a big field.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
Race 6 : FIRST FOUR : 9,12,13 / 9,12,13 / 4 / 2,8,9,10,11,12,13 x $2.50 = 8.33 %
Race 6 : FIRST FOUR : 9,12,13 / 9,12,13 / 2,8,9,10,11,12,13 / 4 x $2.50 = 8.33 %
Let’s have a play with Bart’s value runner in the main race, 4-SIRMIONE who should run on well 1st up on a wet track and might steal some thunder from his more popular stable mates. One of the main chances, 9-SHOOT OUT, 12-TYPHOON TRACY, 13-FAINT PERFUME should win, and fill a place, so let’s anchor 4-SIRMIONE in First Fours with 3rd and 4th.


SPENT : $50
RETURN : $41
NET : $-9

The Tips:

Race 1: 8-PLACEMENT, 3-SAYAHAILMARY, 4-TRISARA
Race 2: 12-RATATAT LASS, 8-SALINAS, 14-ZANTELAGH
Race 3: 9-SUNDAY ROSE, 14-SERENADA, 7-JOLLE BRISE
Race 4: 10-SISTINE ANGEL, 4-WILLOW CREEK, 6-SERVANT
Race 5: 3-STANZOUT, 1-REWARD FOR EFFORT, 12-SOLCHOW
Race 6: 9-SHOOT OUT, 12-TYPHOON TRACY, 13-FAINT PERFUME
Race 7: 8-MOUDRE, 5-APPREHEND, 10-BELSCENCIA
Race 8: 16-SAVQUAW (emerg), 2-MR BARITONE, 9-EXTRA ZERO, 10-JUST LOOK



RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
8-PLACEMENT 3rd W=$7.80
3-SAYAHAILMARY 1st W=$3.20
4-TRISARA SCR

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
12-RATATAT LASS SCR
8-SALINAS 3rd W=$1.50
14-ZANTELAGH

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
9-SUNDAY ROSE SCR
14-SERENADA SCR
7-JOLLE BRISE

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
10-SISTINE ANGEL 1st W=$21.80 *** nice value winner - thanks ***
4-WILLOW CREEK
6-SERVANT 2nd W=$9.90

Quinella : $99.50

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
3-STANZOUT 2nd W=$3.90
1-REWARD FOR EFFORT SCR
12-SOLCHOW

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
9-SHOOT OUT 3rd W=$3.00
12-TYPHOON TRACY
13-FAINT PERFUME

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
8-MOUDRE 1st W=$2.30
5-APPREHEND 3rd W=$5.00
10-BELSCENCIA

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
2-MR BARITONE
9-EXTRA ZERO
10-JUST LOOK




RACE 6: MEMSIE STAKES GROUP 1 1400M WFA
Tips:
9-SHOOT OUT 3rd W=$3.00
12-TYPHOON TRACY
13-FAINT PERFUME

Others: 4,8

Pace: NO PRESSURE UP FRONT
Leaders : 12-TYPHOON TRACY
Handy : 5-RED RULER, 8-SO YOU THINK, 9-SHOOT OUT
Back : 1-MASTER O'REILLY, 2-WHOBEGOTYOU, 3-LITTORIO, 4-SIRMIONE, 6-BUCCELLATI, 7-MOATIZE, 11-BRIGHTNIGHT, 13-FAINT PERFUME, 14-VALDEMORO

Chances:
4-SIRMIONE seems to leave his best for Flem 2000M. Probably a little under rated because of his inconsistent form, but there is some pretty solid WFA form in there. Australian Cup 1st and 2nd, Mackinnon 1st and 3rd. St George placing. C.F.Orr placing. His 1st up form looks just OK, 7 starts, 3 placings, but have a closer look. 4 out of 5 1st up runs over 1400M at Caulfield he has ran on extremely well, usually coming from well back on the turn to finish 4th to 6th, beaten < 3L. Placed all starts on slow tracks as well, so looks like he handles the wet OK. Drawn outside here is going to be a big plus as he is going to be coming home hard and wide. Focus is on his stable mates too – what is the bet this one comes out and steals their thunder? Think he has a lot in his favour today – best rough chance and put in your trifectas.
8-SO YOU THINK is billed as the star attraction of the spring. And he comes in 3D ! Woo Hoo ! Very lightly raced, always shown a lot of potential. Early runs was known for dropping well back and coming with a finishing burst, but scooted to the lead in the Cox Plate last year and totally destroyed them. Set a tough task backing up into the Emirates, they tried to get him to settle, he over raced, went dashing forward and kicked clear about 100M out and looked the winner before one came out and nabbed him. Interesting to see where they ride him this spring, definitely think he is better racing on speed, and the break should have left plenty of time for him to mature and learn to settle. Totally untapped potential. Trainer scratched him from the Liston cause track was too wet. Genuine slow track today probably not much better, but you would think they just about have to run him else he is going to be too far behind in Spring Campaign (unless they head down to Geelong for a bit of synthetic action!). Drawn out, you would hope they go forward and to see him sitting handy and just off the lead out wide. Worry is having had the year off, how long he takes to get back to form? Just depends how forward he is and how he handles this going. Market will probably tell the story. Solid chance. 1st W=$6.60
9-SHOOT OUT has been the revelation of the spring so far, with two class wins at WFA. No reason why he cannot go on with it – but us punters are a darn cynical lot and you have to point out that it is easy pickings for an above average horse early on in the spring – and it is damn hard to stay in peak form for the whole 3 months. Has race fitness over these. Seems to handle it wet no problem. Perfect barrier draw and should be able to take up a handy position here, in a race with not much pressure up front. He will be making his own luck on the speed, whilst a lot of his rivals will be back in the field looking for runs. Have to rate on top. Wining chance. 3rd W=$3.00
12-TYPHOON TRACY is eagerly awaiting to be announced Horse of The Year and win a fabulous prize package including…. On pace mare who is just about unbeatable up to 1600M, past that is another question. Interesting they are planning to head towards the Cox Plate with her, which we are a bit doubtful about seeing she has failed when tried over > 1600M before. Trainer has said she is not as forward as previous years as they are wanting her to peak later in the spring. Win in the Myer Classic last year, when she absolutely thrashed a field of fit, in form horses was nothing short of astounding. Seems to handle it wet OK. Just about unbeaten fresh – when she was beaten 1st up in the Liston Stakes last year JUNGLE RULER tore away to a huge lead and she had to reel him in which left her vulnerable. Her racing style means these early WFA races are at her mercy, never any pressure up front. Should get the lead easy here, no pressure – it is really going to come down to how the track is racing. If they are going off the rails and swooping late you would suspect one of the run on WFAers is going to mow her down. If the rails is OK then she probably kicks and wins. Solid chance. 4th W=$2.70
13-FAINT PERFUME is another who could be a star on the rise. Tough type who still seems to be on the improve. Has wet track form. Almost certainly go well fresh, and will be suited if they are running on late. Just wonder if she might be a big track horse and prefer Flemington ? Watch market, but actually would prefer to be on her than the stable mate the (8), she has raced through Autumn and just seems to have a lot to give – been over a year since we have seen the (8). Sure to be running home late. Chance.

Place:
2-WHOBEGOTYOU is an above average miler who looks doubtful over longer trips based on his anti-climatic Cox Plate run of last year. Dead set drop back and run on horse, which means he doesn’t win as many as he should as can find trouble or leave it too late. 2nd in the Liston and Memsie in Spring last year and did not miss by much in both those races. Interestingly with Rodd back on board he seems to be dropping back out and running on, the few rides Oliver was on board he seemed to settle a bit closer to the front. Fresh form is actually excellent – placed 4 from 4 1st up. Has failed on wet tracks before, winter placing in QLD was good, but still unsure about whether he handles it. A lot depends on how forward the trainer thinks he is, so listen out for interviews. Inside barrier and probable lack of speed here is going to make it difficult, doubt he will be able to come through on the inside. Drop back horse drawn barrier 1 is asking for trouble. Does go well fresh. Solid place chance, but suspect something will get a better run and he will come home too late or unlucky. 2nd W=$8.90
10-ZABRASIVEis a lightly raced one being set on a traditional Cups campaign, and has had a OK barrier trail to get him ready for this. Yet to see a wet track. Yet to finish further back than 4th, lightly raced means he will probably go OK fresh. Place chance.


Sacking:
1-MASTER O'REILLY is a solid WFA stayer who has made a niche out of flashing home late in WFA races to run 3rd or 4th. Still has not won a race since 2007 Caulfield Cup !. He is actually starting spring a bit earlier this year – previous years he has resumed in the Makybe Diva. He has put in some good runs fresh, but they have normally been over 1600M, not 1400M. Getting older (aren’t we all), shorter distance probably means unlikely to show up today. Drawn inside unlikely to be an advantage, and wet track form questionable. Passing.
3-LITTORIO is ambitiously being set for the 3200M again (maybe third time lucky?). Has placed 3 from 6 1st up, so goes OK fresh, but again, he is better over the 1600M 1st up than the 1400M which is probably too short. Seems to go OK on wet tracks, and drawn out to run on late and wide. Prefer later on though.
5-RED RULER is a bit of a pretender and has had a stack of chances to win a good WFA race in Melbourne, but never made the grade. Plus with him is that he can lob handy to the speed if required, just have been a few times where he has got perfect runs, had every chance and not really threatened to win, just threatened the box trifectas (ooh – how scary!). 2nd up and up 200M from NZ 1st up run. Dubious on wet tracks, even slightly damp tracks, wants it firm and hard so unsuitable conditions here today. Just don’t think he is up to this class. No.
6-BUCCELLATI Welcome to our new International Friend. Hope you enjoy your stay in Australia. Have you been down the Great Ocean Road yet?. Overseas purchase having 1st start in Australia, know pretty much nothing about this one, so ignorance is as good a reason as any to just pass over and see how he goes. No
7-MOATIZE is a handicap stayer of Bart’s who goes OK once he is fit and over some distance. Looks questionable on wet tracks, extremely questionable against this class at WFA. Passing.
11-BRIGHTNIGHT is another one of Bart’s that has been pushed for the Cups. Lightly raced, only had the 1 preparation so probably lots of improvement to come. Wet track looks OK. 1st time in open class, and 1st time at WFA looks an ask. Is drawn wide though, drop back horse running on, maybe the roughest of place chances if you want to go extremely wide. Otherwise, no.
14-VALDEMORO is a lovely solid staying type who will be better over further. Poor thing has come up against the (13) 3 times and that one has beaten her home each time – the big bully. Should be OK on wet ground, but needs a staying trip to be competitive against these. No

Summary: Big field, most of these are 1st up, so a little hard to line them up. As is normal in these early WFA races, close to no speed at all – just 12-TYPHOON TRACY leading easily, maybe
5-RED RULER, 8-SO YOU THINK, 9-SHOOT OUT can sit handy, but no pressure up front at all. Trick is going to be if they are swinging wide in the straight, that always sets it up for something running home out wide late.

Rating 9-SHOOT OUT to go on his winning way, have to respect race fit and in form. Likely that race will be run to suit too, he can sit just off the speed and swoop wide. Looks the safest way to go in this. 12-TYPHOON TRACY will be hard to run down as always, her chances depend on how the track is racing. 13-FAINT PERFUME likely to be finishing hard 1st up. To be honest, think there is not much between these three at all, so maybe back the one at better odds. The value runner here though is each way roughie 4-SIRMIONE, especially if the track is favouring the runners on. His 1st up Caulfield form is actually pretty good and things might just go his way today so worth putting him in trifectas and first fours.

One to risk: 2-WHOBEGOTYOU 2nd W=8.90
Roughie: 4-SIRMIONE

The Key: Watch how the track is racing – are the swoopers winning out wide? Will make it hard for 12-TYPHOON TRACY

RESULTS : The Cox Plate winner, 8-SO YOU THINK and potential freak comes back for a solid 1st up win. The $6.60 look pretty good in hindsight. He really could be something sensational, query today was just having the year off, having an operation and onto a wet track which aparently he doesn't like how he was going to perform. Good to see he settled handy, didn't over race, if he keeps racing like that is pretty much going to win everything this spring. 2-WHOBEGOTYOU gets a dream run with cover, looms like he is going to go straight past the winner, but runs yet another 2nd. Either the first horse is something extremely special, or he is going to be a wanna, gonna, coulda shoulda sort of horse - expect the answer is a bit of both. Not sure what to make of 9-SHOOT OUT's run, had the hardest run of the race posted wide, the first two kicked on him, but he made solid ground the last 100M - think it was a really outstanding run, maybe he just hit a flat spot. Have to say suspect poor 12-TYPHOON TRACY is going to struggle to cut it in this grade, as we warned track conditions were against her, think she can win softer WFA races in open class, just not top notch WFA open class and not past 1600M.