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CAULFIELD : MEMSIE STAKES - 27th Aug 2011
Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: OUT 7M

Betting Portfolio ($50):
Totally splendid weather in Melbourne town this week so it means spring must be right around the corner - or even next week. No rain forecast before the weekend so should be perfect racing conditions on a DEAD(4) track heading towards GOOD (3). Maybe just be wary of those who might want a little give in the ground.

Rail goes OUT 7M here. Last meeting here on Liston Stakes Day when the rail was out 4M the track did tend to favour those racing on the speed until the last few races. Suspect we will get fairly even racing this week with probably a slight tendency towards the on pacers, especially in the early races.

Not overly keen on this program so will just pick out a few key bets for the day. Absolute stack of Moody runners, they are everywhere you look and quite a few short priced favourites, and the stable just keeps on winning. Race 5 and Race 8 are totally nuts and don’t be surprised to see big dividends in those races.

A quick hoof note. Note that 10-JUNGLE RULER in the last has actually won this race the last 2 years, and both times with form that wasn’t that flash. Definitely prefers it wet, but he is drawn well and will get uncontested lead here, and he often seems to win against fields where most of them are 1st up and he can run them along. He is badly out of form, so we can’t tip him, but maybe worth a few dollars each way in the last at long odds.

RESULTS : Just an OK day on the punt with a winner or two at OK odds. Moody Stable totally dominated the day and we cleverly managed to tip the stable's short priced favourites that got beaten and avoid the ones that won. Lovely work if we do say so ourselves! Even racing, though most of the winners ran on out a little wider. Scratchings took the stuffing out of a lot of our bets.

BEST BET : Race 4: 11-METONYMY $12 WIN X
QUINELLA : Race 4: 11-METONYMY, 7-DECIRCLES x $4 X - SCR $4
QUINELLA : Race 4: 11-METONYMY, 5-DELAGO’S LAD x $3 X
QUINELLA : Race 4: 11-METONYMY, 12-GLISSADE x $3 X
Have a bit of time for this one. Ran on very nicely in the Blue Diamond, and then hopelessly unlucky here last start against many of these where took a while to get clear running, came home hard, and was actually in front on the line – but just happened to lift her head up and miss the photo. Extra 100M will suit, perfect barrier to sit on the speed and suspect she is one on the up that is going to be a major player this spring. Keep following her. In an open race there is plenty of value in the quinellas with the 5,7,12 – watch out for the (7) which is likely to get some support. Pretty keen though – we really like this one.
RESULTS : We were really quite confident about this one, but she jumped, sat just off the leader and was being ridden along on the home turn. Most disappointing effort.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 13-LITTLE TYCOON $6.50 EW 1st W=$7.20, P=$2.30 = $9.50 x 6.50 = $61.75
This one has been racing very well 3 starts this time in and should be right at peak for today. Has race fitness over many of these and was noticeable last start making a difficult weaving run through the field when making really good ground late from last. Drawn inside, pace is just even in this so would probably want to see them make use of the barrier and be sitting in the 1st half today, but she looks a solid each way bet and will be finishing off strongly.
RESULTS : Nice collect at each way odds and we were a little surprised at the odds on offer considering she was contesting favourtism earlier on in the betting. Does race forward, but needs an awful lot of luck to get clear from inside barrier, but great ride from jockey not to panic and to dive through a narrow gap full of momentum. Exciting finish for those who were on board.

BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 13-ANABAA’S LEGACY $5 EW SCR $10
Has been flying in two runs back from the spell and looks to be on the way up. 1st up she kicked really nicely down the straight and the winner had to pull out everything to run her down, and last start stuck on really well when leading here and the two that went past her are probably pretty good. Probably jumps and goes to the lead here again, her chances really depend on whether the (5) goes to the lead as well and whether they knock each other over – would be nice to see this one take a sit just on the speed. But think she is on the improve and is going to jump and run and be in this for a long way. Nice value chance.


LAY OF THE DAY : Race 5 : 6-TESTASCANA at around $2.40 1st W=$2.20
These Moody horses just keep on winning, and often at very short odds – so it is a bit brave to take one on. Or foolish. We are that fool. This one is in great form this time in, won his last three, but just wary that both the last two wins he has had everything go his way. At Flem got a perfect on pace sit and the race was practically presented to him, then last start here got a very soft lead and was never going to be run down. Guess you can’t do more than win though. Bigger field today, bit more depth, drawn outside and normally goes forward so might have to work a little early, and past 1600M for the 1st time so just wonder if these might bring this one undone ? But mainly he just keep starting so very , very short – last 2 starts has been absolutely smashed on the tote late. Suspect the same thing will happen today and will start in the red. Maybe even back him early then lay it off later ? – the money always seems to come late for this one. At short odds might as well take him on.
RESULTS : Oops - that's 2 times in 3 weeks the Lay of the Day has got up and won ! Rather large note to self - do not take on horses in winning form. Starts very very short, but even though ridden back has the race well in his keeping a long way out.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
ALL UP PARLAY
PLACE Race 2: 3-STATUS SYMBOL 2nd W=$14.40, P=$4.10
PLACE Race 4: 11-METONYMY X
PLACE Race 6 : 8-PRINCE OBAMA X
PLACE Race 7 : 13-ANABAA’S LEGACY SCR
x $5
We are mainly working around the 8-PRINCE OBAMA being a nice value place chance in Race 6 here. Try and build a decent collect with the best bet Race 4: 11-METONYMY (just the place though as insurance) and coming home with the best rough Race 7 : 13-ANABAA’S LEGACY. Those three will get an OK collect, but always nice to find one more to really reap the benefits of the wonders of multiplication. So let’s kick off with Race 2: 3-STATUS SYMBOL, who is always thereabouts, and last two wins have been over the 1100M and should represent value to start the day.
RESULTS : Was looking grim when scratchings left the 1st leg with only 2 place dividends, but got off to such a great start when our value runner probably should have won ? She was travelling extremely well and appeared to be in clear running when was knocked back inside by the winner - actually quite surprised the jockey did not protest ? Unfortunately we didn't get up, running and multiplying when the 2nd leg was extremely disappointing anyway.


SPENT : $50
RETURN : $75.75
NET : $+25.75


The Tips:

Race 1: 6-PLUCKY BELLE, 1-CUTE EMILY, 8-NOBLE TWOSTEP
Race 2: 3-STATUS SYMBOL, 4-HAPPY ANGEL, 8-LA PRALINE
Race 3: 13-LITTLE TYCOON, 9-HEAD NORTH, 4-OCEAN CHALLENGER
Race 4: 11-METONYMY, 7-DECIRCLES, 5-DELAGO’S LAD
Race 5: 11-DOMESKY, 1-HISSING SID , 8-VESPER
Race 6: 1-HEART OF DREAMS, 8-PRINCE OBAMA, 10-REKINDLED INTEREST
Race 7: 13-ANABAA’S LEGACY, 5-AVENUE, 9-PANIPIQUE
Race 8: 15-VEEWAP, 8-PINNACLES, 7-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT



RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
6-PLUCKY BELLE 3rd W=$1.40
1-CUTE EMILY
8-NOBLE TWOSTEP

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
3-STATUS SYMBOL 2nd W=$14.40 *** unlucky runner ***
4-HAPPY ANGEL 3rd W=$5.30
8-LA PRALINE

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
13-LITTLE TYCOON 1st W=$7.20 *** best each way bet of the day ***
9-HEAD NORTH
4-OCEAN CHALLENGER

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
11-METONYMY
7-DECIRCLES SCR
5-DELAGO’S LAD

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
11-DOMESKY SCR
1-HISSING SID
8-VESPER

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
1-HEART OF DREAMS 2nd W=$2.80
8-PRINCE OBAMA
10-REKINDLED INTEREST

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
13-ANABAA’S LEGACY SCR
5-AVENUE
9-PANIPIQUE

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
15-VEEWAP
8-PINNACLES 1st W=$13.30
7-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT 3rd W=$25.60 *** unlucky at nice odds ***


RACE 6: MEMSIE STAKES GROUP 2 1400M WFA
Tips:
1-HEART OF DREAMS 2nd W=$2.80
8-PRINCE OBAMA
10-REKINDLED INTEREST

Others: 6,5

Pace: SLOW
Leaders : 5-HERCULIAN PRINCE
Handy : 1-HEART OF DREAMS, 8-PRINCE OBAMA, 10-REKINDLED INTEREST
Back : 2-MIDAS TOUCH, 3-PRECEDENCE, 4-LINTON, 6-RED COLOSSUS, 7-ANUDJAWUN, 9-ANACHEEVA, 12-ABSOLUTELY

Chances:
1-HEART OF DREAMS is the proven WFA standard in this field and Caulfield, dry track and WFA are just his cup of tea. Placed 5 from 6 this track and distance, usually in the best company, and 9 from 11 at Caulfield is darn impressive. Yet to win 1st up, and often tends to need a run or two before finding best – and seems to be plenty ready to knock him on that basis today. Can race handy – usually drops back a bit further earlier in his preparation, but there is no speed here at all, so from perfect barrier should lob close to the speed. This is a pretty ordinary field for a WFA so he doesn’t have many genuine rivals here. Have a look at his 1st up runs here, track and distance – 3rd in the Liston 2010, 2nd in the C.F.Orr 2010, 4th in the Liston 2009, and all of those were probably stronger fields. Should get the run of the race here, is proven and has to be in the finish. Solid each way bet. 2nd W=$2.80

8-PRINCE OBAMA makes for a very interesting runner in this race. He is the only race fit horse in this field, against a field a mainly 1st uppers. He will go forward and race handy – in a field where there is very little speed and most will drop well back. And he is coming off a WFA placing at the same track and distance. All that sounds pretty good doesn’t it ? The question is how to line up his last run – the Lawrence-Liston was a pretty weak race, he was way out of his depth and class coming off a 72 rating win in the country, but he was beaten less than a length at 100-1 by two very good horses. What the heck do we make of that ? The point is, he is yet to miss a place, he is lightly raced and on the way up and he has a lot of positives here today so don’t think you can write him off in this. Race fit, should lob on the speed, maybe some untapped potential ?. He was up racing on the lead in the Liston, the pressure went on early when several swooped around the home turn, yet he managed to fight it out all the way down the straight. Think you have to take that as genuine form. Solid chance and think we are going to get tasty odds as most people will write that off as a fluke. Strong chance.

10-REKINDLED INTEREST has always shown a lot of promise, but he is firmly tagged as a “gunna” horse for his flashy finishes into 4th or 5th last spring. Last spring was always finishing hard, running great sectionals, but just not getting into the finish till he won the AAMI Vase. Interesting to note that he did sit much closer to the speed that day and stable has stuck with that jockey ever since. Better on dry ground which he gets today. Drawn inside, so would really like to see him up racing mid field or better. 2nd up and up 200M, but his 1st up run was huge (as always) down the straight. Today is well publicised as his D-Day – he either steps up and proves himself a genuine contender or not. Pretty sure with not much pace on here they will sit a lot closer and that is going to make the world of difference. Could be on the up, or could just be a great big tease – today will tell, but think he has to go in, cause if he puts it all together he is definitely going to be pretty damm good. Strong chance. 4th W=$7.40

Place:
5-HERCULIAN PRINCE has a stunning Spring 2010, with this bold front running wins, but seemed to have had enough when he came to Melbourne for the Cups. Didn’t show much during the Autumn in Sydney at all, but has been given 2 trials going into this so should be fairly forward. Should be able to go forward here, even from wide barrier and over the 1400M with not much speed to compete against. Bit hard to know how he is going to go here, on his best form he is quite capable of jumping and running and pinching this race. If you get bored at the races, play a game and see if you have enough fingers to count all the gear changes on this one. Maybe watch the market and keep him thereabouts as a roughie.

6-RED COLOSSUS is a very consistent type who is stepping up in class here, but has a pretty decent win and place strike rate. Most famous for putting in a pretty solid run behind SO YOU THINK in the Mackinnon at 150-1, which saw him start ludicrous odds the start after – and get beaten . Gotta love a horse going from 150-1 one start, to even money favourite the next !. Won 1st up over 1400M here in a Group 3 in the Autumn, which is a positive sign. He is one on the up and has shown a bit of ability, so probably in for a fairly good spring. This really isn’t much of a WFA field, so he is competitive against this lot. Again though, probably just drops back, not much speed on so rough chance only. Rough 3rd W=$11.20

7-ANUDJAWUN is a lightly raced one who has shown a bit of ability and might go on to do something this spring. Not suited at all 1st up over the 1200M and worked home just OK. Drops back and that can mean he does not win as many as he should. No pace here is not going to suit, but to be honest, all of these drop back, all of them are 1st up, and this one has some upside. Reckon you just chuck him in your wide trifectas or first fours for a place at 100-1 for the hell of it chasing a silly monster collect. We love silly monsters. Rough place.

11-SHAMROCKER was the dominant 3YO filly of the autumn, and probably should have been the dominant 3YO filly of the spring too – had a setback in the Wakeful and stormed home in the VRC Oaks just a few days later. We wrote in the form for 2 week ago about how often the dominant 3YO F does not go on, but the one exception to that was MISS FINLAND - and the difference with her is that she had been winning against the males as a 3YO. Same goes for this one, she beat the males twice during the Autumn and think that means she is going to step up and be a contender this spring. Dry tracks are her go, but she is also a big track horse (think Flem, think Flem, think Flem). 1st up here around Caulfield with not much speed on suspect she might need the run, so we are happy to go around her, but she will be doing something towards the finish to keep us interested for the rest of the spring. Place only.

Sacking:
2-MIDAS TOUCH is one of the overseas Williams horses of the 2011 batch. They buy a bunch every year, race them in the early spring races and toss out any that smell funny / fail to preform. And not that many of these really go on to do much (that last statement comes with a “from memory” disclaimer). Had a jog and a canter and a wave to the crowd down the straight last time, didn’t do much and wasn’t fancied so unlikely to turn everything he touches to gold here today. No

3-PRECEDENCE is a solid handicap stayer of Bart’s who despite having close to 30 starts does tend to over race, do a few things wrong, and not settle quite often. Competitive in the WFA races during the Autumn, and opened up last spring with a strong finishing 2nd on this day in a different race. Dry track suits. Definitely a handicapper though, doesn’t often do much fresh, drops well back and this race is likely to be a WFA dawdle which won’t suit. Passing.

4-LINTON is still held in very high opinion by the stable, and has been given plenty of time to develop so we might see the best of him this spring. Despite being competitive in good races he really hasn’t gone on with the boom from his early 3YO days. His form is solid though, he is competitive in the best class races, just still not quite convinced about this one. Always drops well back, always comes hard late, but hasn’t gone on to that next level to be outstanding. Probably will drop back here, on a slow pace and often these Williams ones need a run 1st up as it is all about winning the obsession of Melbourne Cup. Later.

9-ANACHEEVA destroyed everything in his path in last spring as a 3YO, but then was really pretty disappointing during the Autumn when he was very one paced. Best form is Caulfield and dry tracks so today should suit. Drops well back, needs lot of pace on, quite capable of doing something fresh, but just not convinced by his Autumn form so would prefer to see how he goes. Maybe watch the market to see if he gets any support, but prefer to let run today. No

12-ABSOLUTELY is another 4YO mare coming off a pretty good staying 3YO season and LIGHTS OF HEAVEN franked that form here 2 weeks back. Beat the (11) in the AJC Oaks, but think that was due more to the wet track than anything. Lightly raced and shown a bit of talent, might just prefer the sting out of the ground though, and we are still stung from tipping her as the best bet 1st up last time in when she flopped. Another likely to drop back, she will work home OK probably and won’t be far off them but prefer to let run today. Passing.

13-KING'S ROSE is the unknown quantity in this field, lightly raced, smart win strike rate, into freak stable that is winning week in , week out. Very hard to line up so pretty much reliant on the market. Wouldn’t have to be that much above average to be competitive here, but still probably just prefer to let her run at the moment and see how she goes. Prefer to see. 1st W=$8.00

Summary: Bit of a very tricky race this year. Not an overly strong field, probably has a bit more depth than the Lawrence-Liston did, but doesn’t have an outstanding WFA horses like that race did. There are a few here on the way up, so realistically any of 4-5 could step up here and show they are going to be the goods this spring.

Pace here is going to be pretty slow – and think that is the key here, so many of these are drop back types and 1st up from a spell. Good chance it will be an on pace track as well. Think you want to stick to those that are going to race handy. Probably : 5-HERCULIAN PRINCE going to a clear lead with not much pressure, with 1-HEART OF DREAMS, 8-PRINCE OBAMA sitting behind them and suspect 10-REKINDLED INTEREST might lob a lot closer today.

Like the Lawrence-Liston think you need to stick to the best WFA horse in the field, in this case 1-HEART OF DREAMS who should sit right on the speed, loves Caulfield, dry track 1400M. He is the proven one here and does look like he will get the run of the race. We are happy to push for the fluke runner from last start 8-PRINCE OBAMA, he should sit right on the speed here, get a great run and should probably still be tasty each way odds. Suspect he will be in the finish again – might find one just running over the top of him though. And 10-REKINDLED INTEREST, could step up to the mark today, you will probably know once they have gone a few hundred metres - if they have him sitting mid field or better he is going to be right in this, if he has dropped back wait for the flashy, but too late run home again. Fairly wide open race though so don’t be surprised if there is a good value trifecta and first four here – with something silly running a place fresh. Suggest to go wide for the placings with whatever you like to win and include the 8-PRINCE OBAMA and the 6-RED COLOSSUS as the value placegetters.

One to risk: 12-ABSOLUTELY 5th W=$18.40
Roughie: 8-PRINCE OBAMA

The Key: Early WFA races are often run at a slow pace.

RESULTS : Really nice win by the winner here who had the race in her keeping a long way out. Looks a professional type who puts herself into the race, and pretty surprising that there was no money at all for her ? Can't work out what happened there. Honest as always effort from 1-HEART OF DREAMS who fought it out all the way down the straight even though the winner looked to have his measure a long way out. Lots of good runs, but we really liked the way 6-RED COLOSSUS come home after switching across other runners - suspect he is going to go on this spring and be a contender.


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