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| CAULFIELD : MEMSIE STAKES - 1st Sept 2012 |
| Track: DEAD(4)- Weather: FEW SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 6M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Topsy turvy weather in Melbourne this week so really hard to know what is going to happen before the weekend. Weather keeps switching from lovely pre-spring warmth to sleet, hail and snow. Fair bit of rain forecast for Thursday night, then just showers Friday and Saturday and track is currently a DEAD(4), so expect it will stay a genuine dead to worse side of dead track – but a lot firmer than we have had in previous weeks. Last meeting here rail was out 3M on a dead set bog and it strongly favoured on pacers, but no reason to think there should be any distinct pattern today with the rail going out so we should get even racing. Bumper fields and lots to watch, look, listen and learn. Spring is coming. Funny about that what with it being September and all. Lots of big even fields so lots of value about the ones you like and should be plenty of $10 plus winners floating around. We have thrown a few a decent odds into the selections as there are bound to be some long shots pop up somewhere on this program. Plenty to bet on today so let’s spread it around a bit Special cheerio to dear old JUNGLE RULER in the last, having his 110th start, his 68th start over 1400M and his 34th start at Caulfield. He was SCR from this race last year but won this race in 2010 and in 2009. Come on Melbourne Racing Club, he obviously likes the place, just name the race after him ! RESULTS : Track actually ends up even firmer than expected with an upgrade to a GOOD(3) and a simply lovely sunny day out at Caulfield. Track races fairly evenly, though most of the races are won by on pacers or those getting runs on the inside. They can run on out wide, but generally didn't win unless there was a furious pace on. Day of extremes on the tips, with just the two winners, one very, very small, and one very, very big. BEST BET: Race 5: 1-GOLDEN ARCHER $10 WIN 1st W=$1.80 = 10 x 1.80 = $18 Classy win 1st up down the straight, and is racing in great form. Drier – or even drying track here is a big plus as this one is almost certainly better on top of the ground. Returns to Caulfield where his best runs have been, especially his smashing win on this day last year when led all the way. Not a huge amount of speed here so can go forward and sit outside leader, or even lead again and just seems to be going better than these. Should really win – might get well backed though, so just watch he doesn’t start silly odds - probably want odds of $3 or better. RESULTS : A few key scratchings amongst the main dangers, and a huge amount of support meant this one started far shorter than expected - and close to odds to just about make it not worth it. Jumps to the lead and never really looks in danger though and did look pretty much a good thing. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 7-BIANCON ROSE $8 WIN 2nd W=$5.00 QUINELLA : Race 2: 7-BIANCON ROSE, 10-TWILIGHTING x $2 2nd 7-BIANCON ROSE W=$5.00 / - QUINELLA : Race 2: 7-BIANCON ROSE, 11-GOD HELP HER x $2 2nd 7-BIANCON ROSE W=$5.00 / - QUINELLA : Race 2: 7-BIANCON ROSE, 9-BARBIE’S BOMBSHELL x $2 2nd 7-BIANCON ROSE W=$5.00 / - Lightly raced one with a bit of ability and maintains a good win strike rate. Best form is at Caulfield, was in top form this time last year and expect a lot of improvement from the 1st up run on bog track. Looks really well in this with a claim. Really well in at the bottom of weights against this field cause she does have some ability. Probably best ridden cold and finishing hard, but might have to position a bit closer to the speed today as there isn’t a huge amount of pace in this. Back straight out, and instead of having a place bet, let’s see if we can get a bigger return by taking some quinellas with the (10), (11), (9). RESULTS : Bit unlucky here and don't think it was the best ride by the jockey who rode aggressively to the lead and went for home very early. Huge effort to stick on for 2nd when looked totally gone 1/2 way down the straight. Value in the quinella ($43.70), just we didn't find the right runner to couple it up with. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 13-BALZEUS $5 EW X Doesn’t seem to be that many winning chances in the last race of the day – lots of dead wood filling out the field. The speed should be pretty good, especially if (5), (6) run along and knock each other out. Although this one drops back and has drawn barrier 1, good chance they might string out here, or at very least be coming off the rails at the end of the day. 1st up run was excellent when absolutely flying home down the straight , and then loomed and didn’t quite finish it off 2nd up in what is probably going to be a pretty strong form race. Looks a nice get out in the last at around $6. RESULTS : Never looked likely and a bit disappointing. BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 8-FLASH OF DOUBT $4 EW 2nd W=$11.80, P=$3.20 = 4 x 3.20 = $12.80 Fairly big field here, tough even 1000M race, and a few with talent and suspect this one is going to get out to longer than the $11 currently on offer – especially on the tote. 1000M specialist – placed 7 from 9 over the distance and the 1000M really is a specialist distance. Fitter for the 2 runs in, solid win 1st up, then just seemed to get lost back in the field and had trouble getting clear running in the straight 2nd up when finished on pretty well (go watch the video). But best thing is the apprentice claim, gets into this as a race fit, in form, 1000M specialist with no weight and looks a decent shot at odds. RESULTS : Huge run poking through on the rails and just seemed a bit reluctant to take the gap, if he got out early might have challenged the winner who was fading on the line. EXACTA: Race 6: 11-GREEN MOON - 1-HEART OF DREAMS x $3 X Being a little cheeky here, the (11) looks a solid bet in the main race where he should get a dream run on the speed, and poor old 1-HEART OF DREAMS contests so many of these races but just so often seems to find one better. So let’s take a cheeky exacta with the poor bugger running 2nd again for a play bet for a few dollars. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 3-SINCERO at around $4 1st W=$3.80 Stack of money for this one and expect like LUCKYGRAY the other week he is going to be very well backed and start favourite on the tote. Has ability and good form fresh, but likely to drop back here from an inside barrier in a race with dawdling speed and need luck to get clear. Never shown his best form in Melbourne either. Think he is getting backed cause it is really hard to find one to single out with so many resuming, but suspect he is going to end up under the odds and need luck so happy to take on. RESULTS : Oops. Did get very well backed - but looks like there was a reason for that with class win peeling off them. We were struggling to find a Lay of the Day this week - even better that we didn't go with the next possibility Race 8: 7-CHASE THE RAINBOW 1st W=$6.50 TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. QUAD : Races 5,6,7,8 : 1 / 1,10,11 / 2,5,7,14,15 / 9,12,13 x $5 = 5.55% 1st 1-GOLDER ARCHER W=$1.80 / X / 1st 15-CUBAN SUNDAY W=$32.30 / X Still smarting from losing our trifecta on protest last week, so let’s throw caution to the wind and be ambitious and go for a quad. Think you can just about go one out on the best bet, 1-GOLDEN ARCHER in the first leg. Take the three selections in the 2nd leg, the (1),(10),(11). Go wide in the 3rd leg which is where you are most likely to get a result – including the long shots the (14) and the (15), and come home on the selections in the last which also includes a bolter so we have some long shot dream combinations if it ends up being our birthday. Even if we are live going into the last always fun to have some big collects running on roughie or two. Still a bit of value around with even fields, and really comes down to the anchor getting us home in the first leg. RESULTS : Well for the 2nd week in a row we found some huge value in the Turf Deli Wonder Bet - but weren't able to capitalise on it. 1st leg anchor and good thing got home. Bombed out in the 2nd leg. But we were spot on the money in the 3rd leg, not only finding the value winner 1st 15-CUBAN SUNDAY W=$32.30, but spotting the other roughie 14-EBONY ROCK 2nd W=$52.60, with a whopping $426 quinella on those two, and a mega whopping $14,028 trifecta on the numbers 15-14-5 which were covered in the 5 selections. So glad we took a quaddie and not a trifecta... SPENT: $50 RETURN: $30.80 NET: -$19.20 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 5-MAREEZA, 3-HIGH AIMS, 8-WALK WITH ATTITUDE Race 2: 7-BIANCON ROSE, 10-TWILIGHTING, 11-GOD HELP HER Race 3: 8-FLASH OF DOUBT, 7-RAVENOUS LASS, 9-SHARNEE ROSE Race 4: 5-KABAYAN, 4-ELITE ELLE, 11-FORCE COMMAND Race 5: 1-GOLDEN ARCHER, 9-GLOWS, 7-DEE’N’GEE Race 6: 11-GREEN MOON, 1-HEART OF DREAMS, 10-REKINDLED INTEREST Race 7: 2-TANBY, 15-CUBAN SUNDAY, 7-BANCA MO Race 8: 13-BALZEUS, 9-OFFENDERS, 12-LAKEDRO |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-MAREEZA 3rd NTD 3-HIGH AIMS 8-WALK WITH ATTITUDE 2nd W=$6.30 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-BIANCON ROSE 2nd W=$5.00 10-TWILIGHTING 11-GOD HELP HER |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-FLASH OF DOUBT 2nd W=$11.80 7-RAVENOUS LASS 9-SHARNEE ROSE 3rd W=$3.90 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-KABAYAN 2nd W=$4.40 4-ELITE ELLE 11-FORCE COMMAND |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-GOLDEN ARCHER 1st W=$1.80 *** best bet of the day *** 9-GLOWS 7-DEE’N’GEE |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-GREEN MOON 1-HEART OF DREAMS 10-REKINDLED INTEREST |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-TANBY 15-CUBAN SUNDAY 1st W=$32.30 *** nice value winner *** 7-BANCA MO |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-BALZEUS 9-OFFENDERS 12-LAKEDRO |
| RACE 6: MEMSIE STAKES GROUP 2 1400M WFA |
| Tips: 11-GREEN MOON 1-HEART OF DREAMS 10-REKINDLED INTEREST |
| Others: 6, 8 Pace: SLOW Leaders : 12-SECOND EFFORT Handy : 1-HEART OF DREAMS, 6-MIDAS TOUCH, 11-GREEN MOON Back : 2-VOILA ICI, 3-SINCERO, 4-WALL STREET, 5-MALUCKYDAY, 7-NIWOT, 8-LUCKYGRAY, 9-EAGLE FALLS, 10-REKINDLED INTEREST, 13-SANAGAS, 14-HAPPY TRAILS Chances: 1-HEART OF DREAMS is a grand old Caulfield campaigner who will hopefully be given one of those nice new apartments they are about to start building out the front of the track to live out his golden years in. 1st up in the Liston he ran pretty well, not really suited on the bog track, and was coming off a set back where he was SCR a few weeks before, so it was a pretty good run to make good ground in the straight. He normally comes to hand pretty quickly, though he has had a longer lay off this time around due to injury so might just need one more run. Genuine, class WFA horse, proven himself in these races, Caulfield and Caulfield 1400M record is pretty good and think you have to consider him here. Barrier is the obvious worry and he would probably want the track to stay firmer side of dead. Guess they probably go forward from the barrier as there is unlikely to be much pace here. Think you have to consider him on the first up run, and he is capable of pinching these early WFA races. Chance. 6-MIDAS TOUCH is a Williams import who showed a bit of form early last Spring sticking on doggedly in a few races before injury struck. Just the one warm up run over Autumn, and then showed a bit of dash early to be up near the lead down the straight 1st up this time in. That was a promising sign and probably better than his run in the same race last year – even though both were tailed off. Suspect he doesn’t handle it wet which is why he dropped out. Took a few runs and some distance to find his form last spring – and running in the same races this year. He raced on speed in this race last year before dropping out and being well beaten, but then suddenly found form 1 start later in the Makybe Diva. Wouldn't be surprised if he did something today – he suddenly improved quickly last spring 3rd up, so might do it 2nd up this time in. He has a nice barrier, can go forward like he did last start and does seem to kick on very well so despite coming off a last start last - actually think he is a rough chance in this. Rough. 8-LUCKYGRAY is a WA visitor with some ability, but still surprised to see so much money coming for him last start when he was heavily backed - on a bog track for the first time. In fact it was the first time he had gone anywhere near a wet track, so found it really strange. Punters and money – such a twisted concept. 1st up run in the Liston was promising, he settled a lot more forward than expected, but you had to be handy to be in the finish that day. Worked home well and stuck on OK. Drier track here is going to be a big plus, as is the outside barrier and think he will be ridden more to his pattern today - drop back and run on. Looks a chance - just got a niggling query over the Liston form being any good so not sure we will be backing him but this is the sort of race he should be able to pick up in early spring. Probably need to see him one more time for us, to back him with any confidence. Chance with reservations. 10-REKINDLED INTEREST was our top selection for the Liston, but was scratched to avoid the heavy track so we might as well do a lazy copy and paste the form comments from there. Bit of a grand pretender in our books and we got sucked in plenty of times during his 3YO season. Known for his flashy runs into the placings with his powerful finishing burst – shame that burst isn’t good enough to get him to the finishing post first very often – but hey – at least it looks good ? Excellent runs in last year’s Cox Plate and Mackinnon so has some class on these. Think it was telling his only win last spring was in the Dato Tan, on a swoopers track, where most of his opposition had no luck and well basically, it was his birthday.Firmer track is a big plus today, he goes OK fresh, and he has the turn of foot to pick up these early spring races which are so often up for grabs for a horse placed correctly. Another drawn inside barrier on a muddling place - and really think he is best taken to the outside and let loose. He has the turn of foot to overcome a slow pace - just really depends where he ends up in running here. Worth noting when they rode him forward in the this race last year he went OK, but just didn't show his finishing burst - so don't think that is the best option despite the barrier and lack of speed. You would want to see him flashing down the outside. Chance 11-GREEN MOON looked the goods last spring as he steady improved to a tough, impressive Newcastle Cup win and a huge run in the Caulfield Cup before injury struck. Those damn thumps - funny how they only ever seem to affect short priced favourites though ? Showed his versatility with a very nice win in the Blamey at only run in the Autumn, and really like how he travelled that day - he positioned on the speed and always looked the winner once he got clear and kicked clear for a solid win. Showed some class. Obviously set to chase Cups glory again this spring so guess the burning question is how forward is he going to be first up ? If he is as forward as he was in Autumn think he wins this. Regardless, he has drawn a nice barrier, he is one of the very few who can go forward here, he has some class and you just get the impression he is going to go on and go up a level again this spring. Only negative is Williams stable horses seem so rarely primed to go first up. Gets the run of the race here. Strong chance. Place: 3-SINCERO is a Sydney galloper with a very nice win strike rate. Been given two trials leading into this, including a win so should be fairly forward for this 1st up stint. Ran on really well in his Sydney autumn runs - but too late to be much good to punters. Was down here for the spring majors last year and failed to make much of an impression . Winner of 3 first up is important to note. Drawn an inside barrier and likely to drop back with not much speed in this is probably a little worry. Just looking at his form it does look like he prefers a genuinely firm track so the more rain that comes the more you would probably be concerned. Watch market, there is a stack of Sydney money for him and they seem very confident, but looks under the odds for us. Prefer place.1st W=$3.80 14-HAPPY TRAILS is a tough miler who doesn't win as often as he should and often seems to be coming home that little bit too late or held up for runs. Solid 1st up win over 1200M so might be in for a good campaign. OK on wet ground but would probably prefer it to be drier. Drawn out a little, likely to drop back and run on in clear running which is good, but there is just so little speed here you can't see the race being run to suit. As a fit , in form horse though think he is worth a rough place chance. Place. 2nd W=$13.20 15-MISTER MILTON has been aiming pretty high, mainly based on a long shot placing back in the Australian Guineas in March, but seems to be struggling in the higher grades. Fitter for the 2 runs in and stuck on OK when he travelled into the race OK last start. The drier track is definitely a big plus. Lightly raced, but win/place record isn't the best - but he normally isn't that far away. Plus is that he is a bit more versatile than these, he can probably go forward from the barrier and there isn't much speed here. Actually, just as a flukers chance, fitter for 2 runs in, onto a firmer, more suitable track, chance of rolling forward with not much speed think he might run better than the long odds suggests. Worth throwing in as a rough chance for trifectas for a dream dividend. Rough place. 4th W=$40.00 Sacking: 2-VOILA ICI is French for Here is Here, or more commonly Where The Hell is that Winning Quaddie Ticket ? (the French say it much more politely though). Moody imported galloper who is used to the fine life around the Mediterranean and will no doubt be nipping across the road for a latte before kicking off the day. As for his form, well, really what can you tell with these imported ones? Listen to the trainer, watch the market, and well, to be honest, just save your money till they show some form. No point guessing or punting on unknowns. Will probably drop back from outside barrier and just want to make ground on a few so everyone can say "oh wow, nice run". No 4-WALL STREET is a classy NZ miler who has proven himself during the Melbourne spring. Handles all track conditions and can race forward though he does drop back in the majority of his races. 1st up record is OK, though he has tended to take a few runs to find best in more recent preparations. Didn't do much 1st up here at Caulfield in the Futurity in the Autumn and he is another you probably want to watch the market on but maybe just let run. Good chance here from barrier (2) he is going to drop back 1st up and get jammed up in a muddling race, and he is really a long run down the outside sort of horse. Risking. 5-MALUCKYDAY was the surprise find of Spring 2010 and looked like he could be absolutely anything - and has gone on to be totally and absolutely nothing. Just never got back to the smashing Spring 2010 form. Ran on, but never in the finish in his Sydney Autumn 2011 runs and just the one run last spring and a full year off so obviously there are a few issues. Would be great to see him get back to his best, cause we need an Aussie staying star, but from a punting point of view can't go near him until he shows some form and you would think they have gone a bit soft on him coming off a long lay off and today is just a warm up lap. No 7-NIWOT is a solid staying type doing a warm up lap for later in the spring. Yet to win under 1600M, and 1400M record isn't flash. Handles it wet, but another likely to be dropping back in a big field with no speed and get cluttered along the inside. Usually takes a few runs and wait for a suitable race. No 9-EAGLE FALLS is an under rated sprinter who keeps popping up and wiping out us poor punters at odds. Drop back and run on type who likes a fast pace, so be interesting to see where he settles first time over the 1400M here from a nice barrier - surely would have to position mid field ? Fitter for the 2 runs in, which have been a bit average, especially the MV race 1st up which was set up for the runners on. Has ability and is capable of very quick improvement so this is an interesting placement, but the major concern is really any rain - he is a straight out top of the ground horse so on that basis alone probably need to leave him out here. No 12-SECOND EFFORT improved suddenly to win 2nd up in the Liston, but he did strike a suitable bog track and there really wasn't much depth there - so the race was there to be won. Showed he could run out a strong 1400M there - though he did settle on pace and the on pacers were favoured that day. Likely to go forward again here in a race with not much speed so he can make his own luck. Just doesn't look like the track is going to come up as wet as he would like - he really prefers a genuine slow to heavy, and up against a much stronger field on a drier track is a worry. Plus just got a feeling the Liston form isn't going to be that strong. Think everything fell into place last start. Prefer to risk. 3rd W=$19.70 13-SANAGAS is an import trained by Bart, who seems to have taken on a "if you can't beat him - buy them" approach. Lightly raced with good win strike rate so probably has lots of upside. Utterly impossible to line up and just have to watch market but we prefer to just let these ones run. No Summary: Probably not the best betting race in the world and there is always the chance that something is going to come out and blitz them first up. Field is full of drop back stayers looking for further, so need to judge how the race is going to be run as the pace looks pretty dawdling and really need to think about who is going to be in the right position and get every chance. Speed here is moderate at best - suspect they just about lead today on 12-SECOND EFFORT from 1-HEART OF DREAMS, 6-MIDAS TOUCH , 11-GREEN MOON, 15-MISTER MILTON sitting handy. Really no pressure up front at all, which is going to make it hard for the back makers, especially those drawn towards the inside who are likely to get cluttered up in a big field. Really 11-GREEN MOON looks ideally suited here, can sit on pace, has a turn of foot to pinch this and looks to be one on the up. Just a question of how forward the stable has him, but if he replicated his Autumn run think it is good enough to win this. Caulfield, 1400M so you need to put 1-HEART OF DREAMS in , and he is another likely to roll forward and get a fairly easy time up front here. 10-REKINDLED INTEREST is going to drop back and has drawn inside and would really like to see him flashing home out wide - not sure how jockey manages that - but he has the turn of foot and WFA sprint to be a factor here. And don't be surprised if 6-MIDAS TOUCH runs a lot better today, again rolling forward. Not overly keen to bet though with so many unknowns and a big field. One to risk: 12-SECOND EFFORT 3rd W=$19.70 Roughie: 6-MIDAS TOUCH The Key: Dawdling pace, need to be on the speed RESULTS : Well and truly off the mark this week with the Lay of the Day winning. The top pick 11-GREEN MOON chances were pretty much gone once they announced they were going to ride him back - quite obvious this was just a warm up run. Huge run though coming from last to finish 5th, certainly would have gone close to winning ridden forward. 3-SINCERO looks like he is going to go on this spring, can't get over enthused about the rest without seeing them again. |
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