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| CAULFIELD : MEMSIE STAKES - 31st August 2013 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: OUT 6M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Fantastic warm and sunny weather in Melbourne this week and this track should come up quite firm. As always the track will start out as a DEAD(4) at the start of the day and should be upgraded on a fine and sunny day. Rail was out 3M here 2 weeks ago when the swirling wind meant that the racing pattern strongly favoured those running on. Unusual to have a firm track this time of year, so watch out for form reversals and suspect the racing pattern will tend towards on pacers with the rail out. Absolute bumper meeting with lots of interesting races and note that the Melbourne Racing Club are racing all their features as the LAST race on the program this spring – so remember to hide some money in your back pocket so you still have something left to bet on in the last. The Memsie looks a fantastic race this early in spring, so really time to start paying attention to the form. Apart from that good luck trying to line up the form in all the other races with import, imports, imports (everything must go - never to be repeated prices) racing everywhere. Actually a pretty good betting day with a bit of depth and variety to these fields, though hard to line up the imports obviously. Won’t be surprised to see quite a few $10 plus winners so if you like something away from the norm go for it. RESULTS: Bit of rain around on Friday means the track starts off DEAD(5) before an upgrade to DEAD(4). Track races quite evenly, there is an awful lot of speed in most races though which means most of the races are won by horses running on late. The Betting Portfolio bombs out - and gets a extra sting when the Lay of The Day knocks us out of a nice collect. BEST BET: Race 1: 1-SPIRIT OF HEAVEN $10 WIN 3rd W=$2.20 Always a bit wary of these short priced favourites in the early races, but this one was very impressive 1st up when held up for runs and finishing on really well over the 1100M and looks suited out to the 1400M here today. Apprentice clams 3kgs, and he is riding in fantastic form at the moment. Should have edge on rivals here, though the $2.00 on offer now looks too short – would think more around the $2.50 mark. If she starts too short maybe play with trifectas around the value runners the (6) and the (9) to try and get a bit more value. RESULTS: Gets caught up at the back of the field in a slowly run race. Jockey takes some initiative and scoots forward, but gets a hard run 3 wide and slightly disappointing - but not beaten that far and had excuses so would keep following. Again - backing short priced favourites in the early races - not a good idea. BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 13-ANGELIC LASS $4 EW X Nice all the way win at Flemington last start and can’t see any reason why she can’t do that again here. Fit, in form, good 1400M record, most of these are 1st or 2nd up, shouldn’t be too much pressure up front here, drawn a nice barrier and suspect the leaders will be sticking on OK today. Each way at around $7. RESULTS: A surprise leader burns them along at a frantic pace setting them up for the runners on and ours is never likely. BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 18-BONNE NUIT (emerg) $4 EW X Totally and utterly playing favourites here, but we tipped this one as top pick and best roughie of the day when it won at MV 2 starts back at $38 and was on again last start at Flemington at $16, and want to keep following her. Last start win was actually very impressive – go back and watch the video – came wide on the turn and went past the whole field very easily, put a few lengths on them just as quickly and despite continuing to race erratically with her head on the side held them nicely for the length of the straight - which is quite hard to do. Seems to be on a very rapid improvement path. Up heaps in class here but worth a crack at this race and has race fitness on her side against many of these. There is a stack of speed in this race which is going to suit her strong finish – only trick is she really needs to be outside horses, so jockey has a tricky ride from barrier 2. Still worth something each way at $26 on offer if she gets into the field RESULTS: Frantic pace, and her effort was OK, but never likely. Took a while to get outside runners and worked home OK. May prefer wet ground, but wouldn't totally write her off after that effort - think she has some ability. BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 16-UNDERESTIMATION $2.50 EW X Lots of 1st uppers in this race, a few imports, always hard to line them up, but also a distinct lack of speed here. Realistically the short priced favourite the (4) is the one to beat, and he is one of the few that races on speed, but despite the huge spruik on him he wasn’t overly impressive in his two wins last preparation. So he probably wins, but happy to take the odds about the bottom weight here. 1st up, but drawn well and Williams on board and can race handy in a race of little speed. Tough rolling on pace runs last preparation, been given a little freshen up, but the big plus here is that he drops considerably in weight into open class having had to carry 59kgs or so his last 4 runs. In a big field with lots of unknowns worth something at the $26 on offer. RESULTS: Camps on speed but never looks likely. BEST PLACE: Race 8: 12-AJEEB $2 WIN $6 PLACE X QUINELLA: Race 8: 12-AJEEB#4,9,10,14 x $6 = 150% X / 1st 14-ATLANTIC JEWEL 1st W=$2.20 Feature race of the day is the last and really like the way the (12) has been going here. Dry track suits, will get a uncontested lead, should be at peak with 3 runs in and lightly raced and showing a bit of potential. Really liked the way he kicked on here last start when taken on in the lead and racing into a head wind, so might kick on the turn here and up to one of the WFA stars to run him down – which realistically – they probably do. So back more the place at around $3.50, and take a quinella around the main chances which should pay well if something other than the short priced favourite the (14) steps up. RESULTS: Misses the start slightly and needs to be hounded forward, but only gives a slight kick in the straight and is quickly beaten - was expecting a much better kick. Very disappointing. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 3-SAMAREADY at around $3.50 1st W=$5.90 Class sprinter resuming after a long, long lay off – over a year, and she has been impressing in track work but just find it hard to back a horse with any confidence coming off a long injury break. Might come out and be back to best, but has been beaten as short priced favourite before, suspect the firm track here isn’t going to be ideal coming off an injury, and there are a few in this field that are going along OK. She gets back and suspect something on speed might pinch this. Realise we are asking for trouble taking on class horses like this, but just can’t back her with confidence coming off such a long break. RESULTS: Trainer puts the colds on this one and she drifts substantially - before storming home late to knock us out of a nice collect in the Turf Deli Wonder Bet. Technically you could have laid her at the $3.50 and backed her back to cover yourself at the longer odds - but that is just grasping at straws. The Lay Of The Day won again - pure and simple fact. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. Fixed odds double: Race 4: 2-FAST’N’ROCKING / Race 6: 5-CHIARAMONTE x $5 = $276 return 1st 2-FAST’N’ROCKING 1st W=$4.30 / 5-CHIARAMONTE 2nd W=$9.20 First time we have taken a fixed odds double here. Happy to get on 2-FAST’N’ROCKING to turn the tables on the favourite, he was consistent in all the best 2YO races in the Autumn and hopelessly unlucky here last start when tried for about a dozen different runs, looked hopeless and still almost flashed through to win. Suspect he has improved a fair bit during the break. The 5-CHIARAMONTE looks a good value top selection in Race 6, lightly raced, good 1100M record and hit the lead at Flemington last start to be run down by one that is flying – and meets him much better on weights today. Back them up in doubles at $55 and have something each way on the 5-CHIARAMONTE who we couldn’t squeeze into the Betting Portfolio. RESULTS: First leg gets up after almost blowing it and knocking over the field on his way to victory and we are looking pretty darn good when the 5-CHIARAMONTE hits the lead half way down the straight. That is - until the Lay of the Day comes out and clobbers us in fine fashion. Ouch. Those of you with punting experience though would have seen this coming a mile off and laid off on the sure fire good thing $53 exacta. SPENT: $50 RETURN: $0 NET: $-50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 1-SPIRIT OF HEAVEN, 6-FOREVER DISCREET, 9-DOWNALATTE Race 2: 9-ANGELS BEACH, 6-VAIN QUEEN, 7-RED FEZ Race 3: 13-ANGELIC LASS, 3-ORIENTAL RUBY, 8-AVA’S DELIGHT Race 4: 2-FAST’N’ROCKING, 1-MIRACLES OF LIFE, 5-THERMAL CURRENT Race 5: 16-UNDERESTIMATION, 4-STRAWBERRY BOY, 10-GOLDONI Race 6: 5-CHIARAMONTE, 4-UNDENIABLY, 7-POCKET ROCKETS Race 7: 18-BONNE NUIT (emerg), 6-PAKAL, 3-FOLDING GEAR, 9-THE CLEANER Race 8: 14-ATLANTIC JEWEL, 12-AJEEB, 10-SUPER COOL |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-SPIRIT OF HEAVEN 3rd W=$2.20 6-FOREVER DISCREET 9-DOWNALATTE |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-ANGELS BEACH 6-VAIN QUEEN 1st W=$2.10 7-RED FEZ |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-ANGELIC LASS 3-ORIENTAL RUBY 8-AVA’S DELIGHT 3rd W=$5.30 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-FAST’N’ROCKING 1st W=$4.30 1-MIRACLES OF LIFE 5-THERMAL CURRENT 3rd W=$7.10 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 16-UNDERESTIMATION 4-STRAWBERRY BOY 3rd W=$2.10 10-GOLDONI |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-CHIARAMONTE 2nd W=$9.20 4-UNDENIABLY 7-POCKET ROCKETS |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 18-BONNE NUIT 6-PAKAL 3rd W=$2.50 3-FOLDING GEAR |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 14-ATLANTIC JEWEL 1st W=$2.20 12-AJEEB 10-SUPER COOL 3rd W=$17.30 |
| RACE 8: MEMSIE STAKES GROUP 1 1400M WFA |
| Tips: 14-ATLANTIC JEWEL 1st W=$2.20 12-AJEEB 10-SUPER COOL 3rd W=$17.30 |
| Others: 9,4 Pace: SLOW – LEADER DOMINATES Leaders: 12-AJEEB Handy: 4-HAPPY TRAILS, 7-SECOND EFFORT, 10-SUPER COOL, 11-FERLAX Back: 1-GREEN MOON, 3-LUCKYGRAY, 5-FIORENTE, 6-SEVILLE, 8-MY QUEST FOR PEACE, 9-IT'S A DUNDEEL, 13-SILENT ACHIEVER Chances: 4-HAPPY TRAILS is a vastly under rated performer who was famous for his unlucky runs from last in feature miles before he suddenly went up a notch to be a WFA performer last spring – and the big difference? Being ridden forward in the field – makes so much difference – no more hard luck stories. Probably a little disappointing during Autumn, but did strike unsuitable wet tracks. Ran 2nd in this race last year when ridden forward coming off a 1st up win. This year he didn’t have much luck 1st up and run on well and following the same program as last year. Firm track suits. What you really want to see here is for him to go forward again in a race with very little speed except the obvious leader– if he does then he is right in this race. Chance. 9-IT'S A DUNDEEL is one of last year’s bumper crop of 3YOs, who look like they could be the real deal, so with two of them going around today going to be interesting to see how they line up now they are into open class. Huge raps on him coming into 3YO Spring features in Melbourne, but didn’t quite produce the goods. Struck form pretty quickly in the Autumn in Sydney and jog trotted to one of the easiest ATC Derby wins ever, before stinging punters going down at a $1.30 next start. Really good chance he is going to go on with it this spring. Guess only slight query is that all his best runs have been the Sydney way of going so far ? Have to watch market to see how primed he is 1st up, but more than capable of a slashing run. Might not have the speed on to suit though? And inside barrier could be tricky for drop back horse in a slowly run race. But has the class to win this regardless. Chance. 4th W=$5.10 10-SUPER COOL is the other potential super star 3YO looking to step up now he is a big boy and 4 years old. More of a class WFA horse than a stayer, but took all before him in the Autumn and really liked the way he ran down the leader to win the Australian Cup. Has a better turn of foot than most of these and more of a WFA finishing burst horse in a field with lots of stayers, so right in this. Again a matter of how forward he is 1st up, but looks hard to beat, especially as he can sit mid field or better here and a lot of these will be giving them a start coming to the home turn. Strong chance. 3rd W=$17.30 12-AJEEB is a very lightly raced one with a good win strike rate and makes for a very interesting runner here. Lots of potential and upside, only just held on to win here 2 starts ago, but really, really, really, liked the run here in the Lawrence. Didn’t get his own way in the lead that day, there was a strong wind and they weren’t really leading and winning and only got run down by PDL on his way to the Melbourne Cup. Very impressive run. Dry track, Caulfield 1400M, and he is the only leader or on pacer in this race, good chance the track is going to favour those on speed too. Race fit, on the up, likely to get own way in front, really makes a lot of appeal. Most years would be confidently backing him as on pacers can pinch these early WFA races, just concerned this race has come up so strong this year and you would think one of the class runners the (9), (10), or (14) will burn over the top of him. Maybe just see how the track is racing going into the last – at least he is a great value place bet, if they are sticking on well on speed then probably decent each way bet too. Strong chance. 14-ATLANTIC JEWEL is back after a 70 week lay off due to injury. Unbeaten in 7 starts and totally smashed them as a 3YO in Spring 2011. Managed to cope fine with change in racing direction and shorter trips during Sydney Autumn 2012. Been injured twice now and been a long, slow plan to get her back to the racecourse. Considering she has an unbeaten record to protect they haven’t shirked the task here into a pretty strong field. Some murmurs around about a likely firm track and last race of the day not being quite to suit. Likely to drop back here, but drawn middle to run on, just check how well they are running on later in the day. Definitely the one to beat, but they all have to loose sometime (well except you know who), she is back after two different injuries, back after a long break. On her best form she wins easily, but still lots of potential for something to go wrong. One to beat, just to be honest not sure you can go taking the short odds on offer though about a horse coming back after such a long lay off. Strong chance. 1st W=$2.20 Place: 1-GREEN MOON is last year’s Melbourne Cup winner who was thereabouts but probably slightly disappointing in his two Autumn runs. It may be that he takes a few runs to find his best though. Question mark is going to be how forward he is 1st up here, he has been working really well in track work, but with the main prize 12 weeks away you would think there is going to be plenty of improvement left to come. Worth noting that he resumed in this race last year, and it was treated as largely a barrier trial / teddy bear’s picnic with a change to riding tactics to smother him out the back of the field – normally settles handy to the speed. You would think they are going to pretty much follow the same preparation as last year as it paid off with a shiny gold cup thingy. Watch out for change in riding tactics again, and prefer place as don’t think he is going to be primed to go. Place. 3-LUCKYGRAY is the smart WA galloper who has yet to show his best form over here. Probably disappointing in two sprint starts over Autumn, and then was fair when running on 1st up down the straight when probably didn’t handle the wet ground. Back on top of the ground today is a real plus and 4 times winner over this distance. Note that he raced in the Lawrence and Memsie here last year and was only fair, but may have been at the end of his preparation. Trained locally now and up against a field of largely resuming stayers and he has a bit more zip than these over the 1400M early in spring. Main question may be how far he gets back and if they are running on OK, as it is unlikely they will set any fast speed in this. So will drop back and run on, think last run showed some promise and looks suited against these. Rough chance. 7-SECOND EFFORT is a pretty handy performer on his day and can feature in these early WFA races, especially if he gets his preferred wet tracks. Solid Caulfield and Caulfield 1400M record and has developed this nifty little trick where he cuts the corner here and comes home hard. Did it here last start and again the start before to win the Bletchingly. At best on wet ground which he isn’t going to get here, but nothing wrong with run last start and ran 3rd in this race last year on a firm track too. Has race fitness on his side, just wonder if they might go forward here in a race with only one on pacer. This race has come up very strong this year though, so probably just prefer place, but he won’t be far away. Place. Sacking: 2-KING MUFHASA SCRATCHED 5-FIORENTE is a very lightly raced import who burst onto the scene last year with a close second in the Melbourne Cup in his first start in Australia. Nice first impression kiddo. Really just given a warm up jog and canter during the Autumn and had two trials leading into this so should be fairly forward. Another who is obviously being aimed at the big spring targets so unlikely to be that primed 1st up. Be interesting to see where he races here, as Waterhouse runners so often run on the speed. Watch for betting moves but would suspect over the 1400M here will get well back in a race with little speed and work home solidly for the traditional good Melbourne Cup trial of 4th, 5th and 6th. Passing. 6-SEVILLE has yet to really put it all together in Australia, but there is definite potential there. Just OK in first preparation, but as he got used to life Down Under and got a hang of the accent, it was obvious he was gradually picking up his game. Last spring started slowly and got better and better and looked one the one to follow after slashing Turnbull Stakes run - but bombed out with injury after that. Looks like he does need big tracks and distance to show best, and he has been lagging behind in track work against his stable mates leading into this. Too short and prefer later in the spring. No 8-MY QUEST FOR PEACE is yet another of the now ubiquitous imports bought to Australia to take our jobs and eat our hay. Extremely one paced type who put in a great run in 2012 Caulfield Cup, didn’t follow it up in the Melbourne Cup, then give a few cosy warm up runs in the warm QLD sun. Takes time and distance and definitely not today. No 11-FERLAX rose through the ranks very quickly in the Autumn going from country wins to Australian Guineas in the blink of an eye. Had the 1 run back down the straight which was fair, but striking a very classy field here. Dry track suits and can race on speed in a race with not much speed, but wait for some form and something easier. No. 2nd W=$29.30 13-SILENT ACHIEVER is a Sydney / NZ mare with a good winning strike rate who best form is over longer but is up to this class. Again 1st up, just a matter of how forward she is this early in spring. Likely to drop back here in a race with not much speed and prefer to let run today. No Summary: Really strong race for the first Group 1 Memsie Stakes (upgraded from Group 2) and the last race of the day is probably worth hanging around the TAB for - even if your mum is calling you for dinner. Lots of interest here, especially around 14-ATLANTIC JEWEL, 9-IT'S A DUNDEEL and 10-SUPER COOL who all could easily stamp themselves as the one to follow this spring. As is often the case in these early spring WFA races, there really is very little in the way of the speed. The 12-AJEEB is going to get his own way in front here, 4-HAPPY TRAILS and maybe 7-SECOND EFFORT if ridden forward the only others likely to go forward. 14-ATLANTIC JEWEL obviously the one to beat, but you are betting on her coming back from a long, long lay off, not getting injured again and being her old self – and you really don’t know these things till they step out on the race track. Probably wins, but think the odds on offer at the moment are ridiculous at even money in a pretty smart field. No surprise to see either 9-IT'S A DUNDEEL or 10-SUPER COOL step up and both are more than likely to come back with a bang this spring. And we really think the leader here, the 12-AJEEB is going to put in a race, will get a soft lead, watch out if the track is favouring on pacers and might just put a space on them early in the straight and just a matter of one of the class horses coming out and running him down. In a normal Memsie would be backing the (12) with some confidence, just unfortunate has struck a high class race this year – realistically one of the class horses will probably have his measure. So tipping the (14) on top, but probably prefer to have a small win, large place bet on the (12) at odds than taking the shorts about the favourite here. One to risk: - Roughie: 4-HAPPY TRAILS The Key: Leader kicks – can they run him down? RESULTS: The champion mare returns in fine fashion, and the $2.20 on offer is probably more like the odds you want - under $2.00 was far too short against a decent field. 12-AJEEB leads and kicks - for about 5M before being well beaten. Stack of good runs behind them, 10-SUPER COOL running on out wide late, 5-FIORENTE held up for runs the majority of the straight, but we really liked the run of 9-IT'S A DUNDEEL who struggled to get clear on the rails and that doesn't suit his racing style. Real good race to finish the day with. |
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