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Sportsbet are offering money back if your horse runs 2nd in the Memsie Stakes |
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| CAULFIELD : MEMSIE STAKES - 30th AUG 2014 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: OUT 6M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Lovely sunny weather heading into the weekend, and creepy foggy nights and mornings for those who are either nocturnal, or up way, way too early. Track will definitely be heading towards a GOOD(3) and will firm up considerably as the day goes on and the morning dew dries out. Last meeting here the rail was OUT 3M and although you could run on and get into the race, it did probably favour on pacers. Should be even racing here again today and the big fields should ensure an even tempo. Actually found this a pretty tricky program from a punting point of view and some very big and even fields, particularly in Races 4 and 9. Suspect we are going to get quite a few nice value winners and place getters pop up today. Going to spread the suggested bets around a bit over the day. RESULTS: Track comes up a GOOD(3) and there is no distinct racing pattern, though those racing on speed and closer to the inside did feature in most races. Really good days racing and there are a few horses that are going to go onto better things this spring, SUAVITO, DISSIDENT and CHIVALRY. BEST WIN: Race 3: 8-HENWOOD $10 WIN 1st W=$4.20 = $42 This one is often well supported and can be a bit of a trap for punters, but we don’t often tip him and think today he is worth a bet. Not far off them at 1st run from a freshen up, very consistent type, and hits a winnable race today where pretty much the entire field is 1st up and he has race fitness on his side. 3kgs claim is a big plus here for a fit, in form horse and apprentice jockey is riding extremely well at the moment. Not a huge amount of speed in this, and he has drawn an inside barrier so would be good to see him ridden a little closer to the speed. Just looks hard to beat on weights and form at around $4. RESULTS: Perfect ride here from apprentice jockey, went forward and sat outside the speed and looked the winner a long way out. Had to fight off one who came at him in the straight, but had the softer run and nice odds about the best win bet of the day. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 10-STRINGRAY $5 EW X QUINELLA: 13-NOVEL DANCER, 10-STRINGRAY $3 X QUINELLA: 13-NOVEL DANCER, 1-ZULULAND $1 X QUINELLA: 13-NOVEL DANCER, 8-NORDIC EMPIRE $1 X, 8-NORDIC EMPIRE 3rd W=$9.60 Really liked the run of this one last start, and most of this field is coming through the same race. Just took a little while to get into the clear to have a crack at them and when he did he came home really hard and probably would have gone close to wining if the run had come at the right time. Fitter for the 2 runs in, extra 100M here should suit and drawn out to get a clear run into the race. Happy to back him each way at around $6.50. Main danger is the filly 13-NOVEL DANCER who was extremely well backed last start and got stuck wide on speed before fading, there is not much speed here today so she should get an easier run, and she seems to have plenty of upside so is going to be hard to beat on speed. So maybe save with some quinellas through the (13) as well. RESULTS: Ends up a very even betting race with $6 the field. 10-STRINGRAY gets cluttered up for runs again, and should have finished closer, but doubt he would have won and might not be quite up this class. 13-NOVEL DANCER pretty disappointing. Really liked the winner here, 9-CHIVALRY, who was one of the few today to win coming form well back BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 8-DISSIDENT $3 EW 1st W=$12.90, P=$3.50 = $49.20 We are not overly keen to bet in the main race, but think with all the focus on the Sydney Missile Stakes form there are several here with plenty of ability going around over the odds and he is one of them. Always shown a lot of potential and hasn’t had the best of luck a few times in his career, including here in the Blue Diamond and the Caulfield Guineas. Should sit just off the speed here, and depending on how forward he is and if he can produce the Melbourne way of going he might be in for a good spring. Taking on spec a bit, but just think he is going to go on this spring, so happy to have something each way at a generous $15 or so. RESULTS: Perfect ride here again, got into the exact position we wanted, sitting just behind the speed and had the turn of foot to put the race away at the right time. Really good odds about a lot of quality horses in this race with all the focus on the three horses coming through the Missile Stakes. BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 15-ROAD TRIPPIN’ $3EW X The Heatherlie Handicap is always a wide open race and this year is no exception, with a capacity field and most of these are fresh and heading towards staying spring targets. Think it may be worth having something each way on this one at odds. Most of these are stayers and will get well back and he will go forward and sit on the speed, fitter for the 2 runs in and quite liked the 1st up run down the straight Realistically 1700M is as far as he wants, and there is a good chance one of the stayers will jump out of the ground fresh and run over the top of him, but think he will present at the right time and put himself into the finish so worth something at the $21 on offer, and should be a lot longer on the tote on the day with various betting moves. RESULTS: Drops back, and never looked likely. Outclassed at this level. QUINELLA: Race 2: 3-ARE THERE ANY, 4-SUAVITO x $3 RESULTS X, 4-SUAVITO 1st W=$2.70 Be pretty surprised if these two don’t fight this race out and struggling to split them The (3) should get a soft on pace sit, and loomed up like the winner last start, but just ran out of condition. The (4) is seriously good and will go on this spring and hasn’t had the best of luck a few times, has a fantastic finishing burst, just a matter of getting the speed on and getting into the clear. Probably can back them both to win, but let’s just take a quinella with the left over dollars. RESULTS: Love this horse, 4-SUAVITO, she has an amazing finishing burst. Does seem to have issues when she gets caught inside runners, but looked no hope being held up and got out too late to win - and still won! No quinella, but who cares - what a finishing burst. QUINELLA: Race 5: 2,5,11,12,13 boxed x $5 = 50% 2nd 11-RIFLEMAN W=$13.20 Pretty good field for the sprint and realistically with the compressed weight scale one of the classier sprinters should win fresh, namely the 5-PAGO ROCK or 2-RICHIE’S VIBE. The 12-COULDN’T AGREEMORE looks to have ability and should handle the rise in class, and there are two race fit roughies to watch out for the 11-RIFLEMAN and 13-SMACKDOWN, whose two runs this time in have been OK, but are probably going to struggle to win under this weight scale. Pretty even field so box them up in a quinella and there should be a decent dividend. RESULTS: Pretty even field and we miss the winner, but one of the value runners gets into the finish. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 2: 7-LORNA MAY at around $3.30 2nd W=$4.00 This one has plenty of ability and ran well 1st up so does have some chance, we just think the (3) and the (4) are the ones to beat in this race, so don’t think she represents value as the current market favourite and prefer to back others. So more a lay based on value rather than form. RESULTS: We were pretty lucky to get out here, this one looked home but just got beaten by the unlucky 4-SUAVITO who deserved to win regardless. This one did drift and didn't start favourite and we did prefer the other two runners here. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA: Race 7: 3-GREGERS / 12-SINO EAGLE / 2,5,6,7,10 x $2.50 = 50% 1st 3-GREGERS W=$2.10 / X / 2nd 6-A TIME FOR JULIA W=$7.30 TRIFECTA: Race 7: 3-GREGERS / 2,5,6,7,10 / 12-SINO EAGLE x $2.50 = 50% 1st 3-GREGERS W=$2.10 / 2nd 6-A TIME FOR JULIA W=$7.30 / x The 3-GREGERS has a heap of ability and seems to be picking off some easy races early spring. Never looked in doubt leading and winning here last start and should probably do the same today. She might get well backed and start short again though, so lets try and milk some value with a trifecta instead and think the value place getter is the 12-SINO EAGLE who is fitter for the 2 runs in, wasn’t beaten far down the straight last start in open company and rarely runs a bad race. Take the (3) to win, and rotate the (12) through the placings and hope something at odds fills the other place for a nice collect for a small outlay. RESULTS: Plays up before the start and is vet checked, trapped three wide most of the way but never looks likely. SPENT:$50 RETURN: $91.20 NET: $+41.20 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 3-TOP SIGHT, 5-WINESEARCH, 1-VEUVELICIOUS Race 2: 3-ARE THERE ANY, 4-SUAVITO, 8-WINTA CHILLER Race 3: 8-HENWOOD, 12-TEXT’N’HURLEY, 11-BASS STRAIT Race 4: 14-ACES AND ANGELS, 19-RUNNING BULL (emerg), 10-MARWOOD, 15-REMAGEN BRIDGE Race 5: 5-PAGO ROCK, 12-COULDN’T AGREEMORE, 2-RICHIE’S VIBE Race 6: 10-STRINGRAY, 13-NOVEL DANCER, 1-ZULULAND Race 7: 3-GREGERS, 12-SINO EAGLE, 10-REAL SURREAL Race 8: 8-DISSIDENT, 3-MOMENT OF CHANGE, 11-SWEET IDEA Race 9: 15-ROAD TRIPPIN’, 8-LET’S MAKE A DEAL, 3-MR O’CEIRIN |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-TOP SIGHT SCR 5-WINESEARCH 1-VEUVELICIOUS |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-ARE THERE ANY 4-SUAVITO 1st W=$2.70 8-WINTA CHILLER 3rd W=$16.70 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-HENWOOD 1st W=$4.20 *** Best Win Bet Of the Day *** 12-TEXT’N’HURLEY 11-BASS STRAIT |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 14-ACES AND ANGELS 10-MARWOOD 15-REMAGEN BRIDGE |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-PAGO ROCK 12-COULDN’T AGREEMORE 2-RICHIE’S VIBE |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-STRINGRAY 13-NOVEL DANCER 1-ZULULAND |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-GREGERS 1st W=$2.10 12-SINO EAGLE 10-REAL SURREAL |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-DISSIDENT 1st W=$12.90 3-MOMENT OF CHANGE 11-SWEET IDEA 2nd W=$9.10 Quinella: $46.00 |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 15-ROAD TRIPPIN’ 8-LET’S MAKE A DEAL 3-MR O’CEIRIN |
| RACE 8: MEMSIE STAKES GROUP 1 1400M WFA |
| Tips: 8-DISSIDENT 1st W=$12.90 3-MOMENT OF CHANGE 11-SWEET IDEA 2nd W=$9.10 Quinella: $46.00 |
| Others: 7 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 3-MOMENT OF CHANGE , 11-SWEET IDEA Handy : 1-HAPPY TRAILS, 6-PUISSANCE DE LUNE, 7-MESSENE, 8-DISSIDENT Back : 2-BOBAN, 4-SUPER COOL, 5-SERTORIUS, 9-SILENT ACHIEVER, 10-GIG Chances: 2-BOBAN is a top liner with lofty targets this spring and has come down to Melbourne to avoid the wet tracks up in Sydney. 2nd up and ran home well behind the (11) last start and the extra distance here should suit. Another who the dry track is a big plus. He does have a tendency to get a long way behind them in his races, and in a small WFA field with even speed around the Caulfield 1400M that is a pretty big negative. Should sit out the back off them here, just a matter of how well they are running on and how quickly they go. Sure he will run on well and everyone will want to keep following him into the spring, but just get a feeling he might be coming home a bit too late today. Chance, with reservations. 3-MOMENT OF CHANGE is a top class 1200M to 1400M horse who needs to be placed carefully now as he gets super big weights in handicaps. Has a perfect 4 from 4 record over the Caulfield 1400M and dry tracks are his go as well, so looks really well suited here rolling on the speed at WFA. Plenty of merit in the 1st up run, he loomed like the winner just after they turned, but it did look like he got bogged down under the 62 kgs. His chances are going to depend on whether the can dictate the speed up front, and how much pressure he gets from the (7) and (11). Always have to be wary of quality on pacers in these early WFA races as so often there is little pressure in the lead and most of the rest of the field are just warming up for later spring targets. Go well. 7-MESSENE is a lightly raced Sydney visitor with a very impressive win strike rate. The Sydney horses seem to be up and running earlier this year and down to Melbourne now this race is a Group 1. Solid 1st up effort and big plus is that he is drawn inside and can sit handy and put himself into the finish in this early WFA 1400M race – and you can rarely go wrong doing that. Sure to be plenty of support for this one and likely to be right in the finish. Strong chance. 8-DISSIDENT is a 4YO who might go onto bigger things this spring and he did fly under the radar a little as a 3YO. Bought down from Sydney to avoid the wet tracks. Ran home really well here in the Caulfield Guineas last year. Plenty of upside around this one and he can take a handy position which is a big plus, guess maybe query might be that his best form is the Sydney way of going. Watch the market as he is up against a pretty smart field here, but have always thought he was under rated, and he is going to sit just behind the on pacers here and think that is where you want to be. As long as he can produce Melbourne way of going happy to have something on him in this. Chance. 1st W=$12.90 11-SWEET IDEA is off to a flying start to spring with nice 1st up win in fast time. Lightly raced, good win strike rate, plenty of upside, and she is more a sprinter miler who is ready to go early spring rather than those heading towards the big races. Done very little wrong in career to date and should cross and sit outside the (3) here and have every chance. Likely to be a lot more forward than most of these and strong chance. Chance. 2nd W=$9.10 Place: 1-HAPPY TRAILS is a bit of a marvel and no longer under rated, he keeps stepping up a level and putting himself into the finish. A few years back he was a perpetually unlucky feature race miler, always running on a bit too late. Since he started settling close to the speed two years ago his form went up a level, and really his form last spring was top notch with Turnbull Stakes win and narrow miss in the Cox Plate – and we were sure he was a query at the 2000M. Has had the full year off before this spring. Dry track a big plus for this one and much better on top of the ground. Started well supported and disappointing 1st up, but it was on a slow track, off a pretty solid break so think you can probably forgive that run. Has contested the same races the last two years, winning 1st up and finishing 2nd in the Memsie in 2012, and failing to place in both races last year, although both were on wet tracks. Drawn inside and should get a pretty cosy on pace sit here. Suspect he is going to improve, probably just needs one more run though to top him off – but he is always forgotten in these races and always runs better than you expect. Place. 6-PUISSANCE DE LUNE does appear to be at a bit of a cross roads here. Had one of the biggest spruiks ever on him last spring and pretty much had the Melbourne Cup already won 10 weeks out, which is a pretty fair effort, thanks to over enthusiastic punters and racing media pushes. Underwood run last spring was excusable on a leaders track, fine in Turnbull, then injured during the Cox Plate so guess you can’t really knock the form, even if he didn’t reach the expected pinnacle. Long injury lay off and was well backed here two weeks ago first up, he looked great before the race, but did think he was a little disappointing. Jockey blamed it on being 3 wide, but think it was just a fair effort. Fascinating to see how he goes today, don’t think the firmer track is going to be a plus, and wonder if he might push a bit more forward from barrier 1? Really not sure what to do with him and it does look like he is going to get out to quite attractive odds. Think everyone is going to be sitting back and watching, so you might be surprised by the odds on offer. Place 3rd W=$9.00 9-SILENT ACHIEVER is one of the best horses in the country, well, that is, if you count New Zealand as part of Australia. Struck a purple patch during the Sydney Autumn, but was only just fair during the spring here last year – she kept running on in all her races, without really getting into the finish. Ran in this race last year and was hopelessly unlucky – she was held up for the entire length of the straight and never got a crack at them in the slightest. Drawn inside again this year she is probably going to be trailing them out the back of the field and need luck, but she is good enough to win this on her day. This is a very even field and plenty of chances, so don’t write her off either. Rough chance. 4th W=$9.00 Sacking: 4-SUPER COOL showed super potential as a 3YO especially when he chased down a front runner to win the Australian Cup. Mixed his form last spring, put in a huge run 1st up and then it was excuse after excuse after excuse. but really he didn’t seem to come up and raced well below his best. Had a full year off and maybe watch the market to see how much support he gets. Still suspect he may be better over the shorter trips, and note only a Cox Plate nomination for him, so no Cups this year. Yet to be unplaced in 5 runs here at Caulfield. He might get back to his best this spring so may run better than expected, but he is meeting a quality field 1st up here and prefer to see him and wait for him to show form more like his best. No 5-SERTORIUS is a consistent handicapper stayer who can mix it at WFA in the right races. Actually he has a pretty good 1st up record, placed 6 from 8, and worth noting he ran 2nd in the Futurity here back in the Autumn at his last 1st up run. You would think he would have a bit in reserve with a long spring ahead of him so this is a bit of a warm up run. Yet to be unplaced here. Lack of speed here will not suit, but think he will probably run on better than most think and he might be the value runner if you are looking for a nice trifecta or first four collect, but otherwise later in the spring for him. No 10-GIG is a bit of an iron horse and is coming up for her 12th start this time in, including quick weekends away to Adelaide and Brisbane. She has been racing really consistently too, mixing around her distances in the 1200M to 1600M range. Finished on very strongly here 2 starts back when the 1200M was probably a little too short, and actually loomed like the winner on the turn here in the Lawrence before being outclassed. Placed 6 from 7 at Caulfield. Really, she is coming off two WFA placings in the lead up to this so guess that should put her in the race as a chance – but she is going to start outsider of the field and over 50-1! You just get the impression that this is a standard too high for her today and that is going to bring her undone. Passing. Summary: Very interesting race and actually a very even field – and think most of these have some chance. There are some pretty good horses who are going to get out to double figure odds here and you shouldn’t write them off in this, so don’t be scared to bet away from the market. The betting does seem very focussed on the form of the three Sydney visitors coming through the Missile Stakes, which means over the odds for the rest of the field. The speed should be even, but they rarely race along in these early 1400M WFA races. 3-MOMENT OF CHANGE should cross and lead, with 11-SWEET IDEA sitting outside him and 7-MESSENE sitting off those two. Not a race we are overly keen to bet on, and would prefer to back a few of the well credentialed runners out to double figure odds as suspect something may pull out a pearler of a run fresh. Think the race will be won by something sitting just off the speed, so going to tip 8-DISSIDENT on top here, should get a perfect sit just off them, just need him to produce Melbourne way of going, but think he is rather under rated and might go on this spring so taking on trust a bit fresh. 3-MOMENT OF CHANGE definitely the one to beat rolling on the speed, just depends if at the end of 1400M something finishes a bit too strongly for him, and 11-SWEET IDEA the other main danger up and rolling early in the spring. But won’t be betting too seriously in this race. One to risk: - Roughie: 1-HAPPY TRAILS The Key: Too much focus on the Missile Stakes form? RESULTS: Pretty much spot on with the form analysis here. Perfect ride on the winner and top pick 8-DISSIDENT to be sitting just off the speed and he showed a touch of class to put away a handy field. 6-PUISSANCE DE LUNE looks like he is coming along well and 9-SILENT ACHIEVER good, 2-BOBAN starts well supported favourite, but as suspected got too far back and couldn't finish off. |
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