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| CAULFIELD: MEMSIE STAKES - 29th Aug 2015 |
| Track: SLOW(6) - Weather: RAIN - Rail: OUT 6M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): There was a solid day of rain on Thursday which is going to have a major effect on this track, with light showers on Friday and more rain forecast for Saturday so think we are going to be looking at a genuine SLOW(6) or even worse track. Rail goes out 6M here, last meeting it was out 3M but raced extremely evenly and they could win leading or running on late. If the rain comes expect that we will get a deteriorating track here, and they normally come off the rails at Caulfield when that happens. Looks for outside barriers and those running on late in the later races and maybe tend away from those drawn inside if that is the pattern that emerges. Be ready for the possibility of a genuine heavy track and be aware that many of the runners today are first up so a bit of race fitness might be a plus in the conditions. Think today may be a bit of punting madness and there are some very open races with big fields, so expect to see lots of double figure winners, and some big dividends. We can’t remember ever tipping so many large numbers in the tips – and if you want to come home in the quaddie on a pair of 16’s then be our guest. RESULTS: Not quite as much rain as expected, but still a cold, miserable day. Track gradually gets downgraded during the day. Surprisingly, they don't come off the rails and most of the races are actually won by those racing on the speed - and those dropping back in the field never look likely. Unfortunately, that includes most of our tips in a pretty ordinary day on the punt. BEST WIN: Race 1: 7-KANSAS SUNFLOWER $6 WIN 3rd W=$3.60 fav Very consistent type who gets into a very winnable race here in a small field. Should handle the wet track has only missed the place once now in her last 8 starts. Had a small freshen up, previous two runs were excellent and just got left in front too early last start at Flemington when was stepping up sharply in distance and had to carry 60kgs. Should sit just off the speed here in a slowly run race in a small field and think she will be hard to beat today at around $4.80. RESULTS: Gets extremely well backed to start favourite and gets the perfect sit right on the speed. Looks the winner in the straight - and does nothing! Most disappointing - and not is not the first time she has done that either. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 4-UNDER THE LOUVRE $5 EW X One of our favourite horses and we are happy to give a push for him to cause the upset here against the well fancied superstar 1-RICH ENUFF resuming. Excellent wet track form and he has a fantastic finishing burst. The small field here suits in that he will get a clear chance to run on late. Yet to be unplaced in 5 starts at Caulfield. 1st up today and last campaign 1st up he just missed winning the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate this track and distance and went on to place again at Group 1 in the Goodwood. At lot will depend on how this track is racing, but if they are winning running on, and there are any chinks in the favourite (who does probably gets a soft lead here), think he is going to go close to winning. Quite keen at around $6.50. RESULTS: Jumps well, but the jockey lets him drift back, and drift back, and drift back and on a day where they are not making much ground he was out of contention before they even turned. Ran on OK, but really poor ride from the jockey. Keep following as he is a pretty good horse. BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 16-DIG A PONY $5 EW X Coming into the last race this track should be chopping up and think you will want to be looking for wide barriers and those finishing on late down the outside, so this one looks the way to go. Put together a few great strong finishing wins this time last year at Flemington on wet tracks. Seems to be back to best form with last start win. Up into open class is the challenge here, but she has a lot in her favour today - race fitness against a lot of those early in their preparations, loves a wet track and a strong finishing racing pattern. Excellent value to end the day at around $11. RESULTS: Ridden more forward to suit the racing pattern and looked in contention on the home turn, but came out to make her run and didn't really finish it off. BEST PLACE: Race 4: 5-DEMONSTRATE $2 WIN $5 PLACE 3rd W=$14.70, P=$3.90 = $19.50 This one comes into this race with race fitness on his side and has been racing really well. Really unlucky here last start when they went too slow and he was stuck behind them and couldn’t get a clear run at them. Solid wet track form too. Think he has the ones from the last start here covered, just a little concerned that one of the classier ones resuming may get up and win this, like the (3) or (1), or the improving (11), so betting mainly the place as think he will definitely be in the finish at around $8. RESULTS: Drifts out to amazing odds with several major betting moves for other runners. Drops out and runs on down the middle of the track and even looks the winner at the 200M, but a few with better runs just have a bit more in reserve. BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 15-NORTHERN SAINT $2.50 EW X This is a super open race and expect a large trifecta dividend in a field where just about all of them are some chance.. This one is drawn very badly, but is fitter for the 2 runs in, and was finishing on really strongly 1st up here, before an even effort at Flemington. Drop back to the 1200M here should suit and should be finishing on well again in a race with a fast speed – as long as she handles the wet which is a bit of query. Still in a super tough race think he is probably worth something each way at around $15. RESULTS: Those at the back of the field really scramble after the start and they are too far behind coming to the turn - no chance. QUINELLA: Race 8: 17-STRATUM STAR, 16-RISING ROMANCE x $2 = 200% 3rd 17-STRATUM STAR W=$8.00 QUINELLA: Race 8: 17-STRATUM STAR, 11-VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL x $2 = 200% 3rd 17-STRATUM STAR W=$8.00 QUINELLA: Race 8: 17-STRATUM STAR #7,10,13 x $3 = 100% 3rd 17-STRATUM STAR W=$8.00 / 2nd 10-ENTIRELY PLATINUM W=$8.70 Super open feature race, and the quinella is sure to pay nice in a big field. We are a big fan of the 17-STRATUM STAR who is consistently around the finish and looks a solid chance today sitting on speed from a good barrier. 1st up run was much better than it looks when dropped out to last and ran on strongly, and he is normally pretty reliable as a betting proposition. Just a query as to whether something with a bit more staying class runs over them 1st up? Lots of value in the quinella though, so take one with the main dangers the (16) and the (11), and again with some value runners including the best roughie 7-SERTORIUS. RESULTS: Not far off a collect here till our One To Risk 3-BOBAN runs up on the rails in the last 50M to spoil our party. 17-STRATUM STAR does what he always does, gets the perfect run just off the speed, comes out and looks the winner - and doesn't win. He is starting to get a bit of a reputation. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 9: 3-EXCESS KNOWLEDGE at around $4.40 X 7th W=$5.50 Highly regarded Waterhouse stable runner who has been disappointing in both runs in Melbourne when well in the market. Does drop in class here, and does handle it wet and probably a bit of upside, but just looks too short coming into this race at the top of weights, drawn wide and racing forward and wide in a big field, and in a race where something at the bottom of the weights probably runs on late and wins. Happy to look to others at better odds. RESULTS: Never looks likely and an safe lay. Continues to disappoint in Melbourne. TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 6,7: 2, 7,11,16,17 / 4,13 x $5 = 50% 1st 2-CHARMED HARMONY W=$3.50 / x We have been a bit neglectful of doubles in this section, so let’s give them a try this week. Race 6 is quite open, the favourite the 2-CHARMED HARMONY will lead and be hard to beat, but suspect there is a good chance something at odds will come out here fresh and win, so looking at the 11-SYSMO, 17-SIR ANDREW, 7-RHYTYM TO SPARE, 16-ZERBINZ. In the 2nd leg, we really liked the run of the 13-MORE RADIANT last start and despite being worse off at the weights think she can beat the favourite the (17), and the other value chance here is the 4-GRIANTE who has excellent Caulfield and wet track form and just died on her run 1st up when hit the lead early in the straight. If the favourites bomb out in both legs the dividend will be nicely over $100 and worth a shot. RESULTS: Favourite wins the 1st leg anyways, so not much value around and never look likely in the 2nd leg. SPENT:$50 RETURN: $19.50 NET: $-30.50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 7-KANSAS SUNFLOWER, 8-MOSSBEAT, 3-DANESTROEM Race 2: 2-SEBRING SALLY, 4-ALASKAN ROSE, 3-AIR APPARENT Race 3: 15-NORTHERN SAINT, 17-MATAGAMI, 4-SIR BERUS Race 4: 5-DEMONSTRATE, 3-READY FOR VICTORY, 11-STREAM AHEAD Race 5: 4-UNDER THE LOUVRE, 1-RICH ENUFF, 3-THERMAL CURRENT Race 6: 11-SYSMO, 2-CHARMED HARMONY, 17-SIR ANDREW Race 7: 13-MORE RADIANT, 4-GRIANTE, 17-VEZALAY Race 8: 16-RISING ROMANCE, 17-STRATUM STAR, 11-VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL Race 9: 16-DIG A PONY, 13-IGGIMACOOL, 17-PACIFIC HEIGHTS |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-KANSAS SUNFLOWER 3rd W=3.60 NTD 8-MOSSBEAT 3-DANESTROEM |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-SEBRING SALLY 4-ALASKAN ROSE 1st W=$2.60 3-AIR APPARENT |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 15-NORTHERN SAINT 17-MATAGAMI 4-SIR BERUS |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-DEMONSTRATE 3rd W=$14.70 3-READY FOR VICTORY 2nd W=$3.70 11-STREAM AHEAD |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-UNDER THE LOUVRE 1-RICH ENUFF 2nd W=$3.10 3-THERMAL CURRENT |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-SYSMO 2-CHARMED HARMONY 1st W=$3.50 17-SIR ANDREW |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-MORE RADIANT 4-GRIANTE 17-VEZALAY 3rd W=$3.20 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 16-RISING ROMANCE 17-STRATUM STAR 3rd W=$8.00 11-VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 16-DIG A PONY 13-IGGIMACOOL 2nd W=$5.10 17-PACIFIC HEIGHTS SCR |
| RACE 8: MEMSIE STAKES GROUP 1 WFA 1400M |
| Tips: 16-RISING ROMANCE 17-STRATUM STAR 3rd W=$8.00 11-VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL |
| Others: 7, 10, 13 Pace: EVEN Leaders: 10-ENTIRELY PLATINUM, 14-HI WORLD, 20-CHARMED HARMONY (emerg) Handy: 7-SERTORIUS, 8-WEARY, 11-VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL, 16-RISING ROMANCE, 17-STRATUM STAR Back: 2-HAPPY TRAILS, 3-BOBAN , 4-TEMPLE OF BOOM, 5-DANDINO, 6-SMOKIN' JOEY, 9-PRINCE OF PENZANCE, 12-MAGICOOL, 13-PETROLOGY, 15-SETINUM, 18-TREVIERES (emerg), 19-PRESSING (emerg) Chances: 7-SERTORIUS is a tough gritty and under rated stayer who is competitive in pretty much everything he competes in. Excellent record here at Caulfield – in the finish 5 times from 7 races, and 3 from 5 this track and distance – even though it is short of his best trip. Kicked of with a respectable 6th in this race last year, in a race with not much speed, so think he is much better suited this year with the bigger field and likely wet track. Didn’t really come up last spring, but bounce back to form in the Melbourne Autumn was very encouraging. Actually placed here in the Futurity 1st up over 1400M in Feb 2014, and was 2nd when 1st up here in the Victoria Handicap in 2013. Normally this race is won by the class 4YO resuming, so he may be a bit old for this caper at 8yo. He actually doesn’t have to settle as far back as some of his rivals here, and his 1st up 1400M form is actually pretty good. Think he is definitely the value runner for the trifectas and first fours and he should be in the right part of the track drawn out wide. Maybe even a rough chance of an upset here at great value. Rough. 10-ENTIRELY PLATINUM is one who has never quite lived up to his early potential, but best form is running on speed over these shorter trips and note that he has won 4 from 7 over the 1400M. 1st up in the Autumn he ran 2nd here over this trip. Wet track form is OK. He has a big plus in these sort of races in that he races forward and often makes the speed – and he is often up against a lot of drop back staying types. From a nice barrier that puts him in the finish here – a lot will depend if the leaders are sticking on OK though, or if the track is favouring those running on late. He goes into the finish and has to rate a winning chance rolling on a slow speed here – he does tend to find one better quite often though and suspect that may be the case again today. Chance. 2nd W=$8.70 11-VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL is a class staying 4YO resuming 1st up into this race and that is a big tick as that is often the criteria of the winner here. Yet to miss a place in 10 career starts and wet track is no issue. He can also go forward here, in a race with probably not that much speed. Watch the market but suspect money will come for this one. Hard to fault his form and deserves to be prominent in the betting here. Strong chance. 13-PETROLOGY is one the stable have a huge opinion of, but he hasn’t quite seemed to put it all together yet. He was mixing it up last spring, but then topped off spring with a nice win at Flemington on Oaks Day and a very impressive win in the Sandown Guineas. Didn’t really go on with it in the Autumn though. Fitter for the 2 runs back, and the 1st up run here was excellent when finishing home hard and late, but then didn’t do much 2nd up – though you can often forgive them poor 2nd up runs. His 1400M record is a bit of a concern 0-0-0. Wet track should be OK. The racing pattern is probably going to suit him here – finishing on hard and late, and like that he has had the 2 runs in, against a field of lots of 1st uppers. The inside barrier is a bit of a concern as he will drop well back and suspect they are going to be winning wide later in the day. Can’t tip him with any confidence, but note that the blinkers go on today and think if he is going to win one today might be the day so would be keeping him safe. Chance. 16-RISING ROMANCE is a super consistent staying mare who has been transferred to a new stable. She has been around for a few seasons now and been very competitive in Sydney and Melbourne. Huge run in the Caulfield Cup last spring when looked the winner when jockey burst through on the rails and went for home on the home turn. Autumn form consistent and just failed under a big weight at last run before a break. Excellent wet track form. Awful lot to like about her today and she should sit just off the speed here from a middle barrier and have every chance. She has a class and consistency edge on many of these. She may just settle a little further back 1st up here, and guess 1st up form isn’t her best form? Watch the market to see how confident the stable is, but think she is a very strong chance here. Strong chance. 17-STRATUM STAR is one of our favourite horses and he is very consistent when in form. Probably should have won the Carbine Club last spring when got left in front a long way from home. Very consistent through the Autumn when right on the heels of the best 3YOs going around – but he did find one better each time which is a bit of a concern. Before last start he was placed an amazing 11 starts in a row! 1st up here two weeks back the jockey made a total mess of the ride, he dropped right to the end of the field from an outside barrier and made really good ground late. Definitely gets a start here too as first emergency with the (1) already scratched. Up 200M, and into Group 1 WFA class is the query, but he can sit just off the speed, has drawn a great barrier and he is very consistent. Think he is going to get the perfect run in the race here – and that puts him right in the finish here. Chance. 3rd W=$8.00 Place: 2-HAPPY TRAILS is one that feels like has been around forever and he has been super consistent in his preparations for several years now. Even better he has been super consistent – and very predictable, which is fantastic for punters which means you know when to back him and when not to. Ran 8th in this race last year when 2nd up, 7th in this race in 2013 and 2nd in this race in 2012 - all coming off the same race in Adelaide as his 1st up run. This year his 1st up run was good and he was making good ground late. He normally needs a few runs to find his form every campaign, and he is definitely better on top of the ground so the wet track here is an issue. Sure to pop up later in the spring, but only place at very best today. Place. 4-TEMPLE OF BOOM is a tough old campaigner and the Boom brothers have been great friends to punters over the last few years. Much better known as a 1200M sprinter. 2nd up here coming off a solid 1st up run up in Sydney and has a race fitness edge on many of these. Best form in Melbourne has been down the Flemington straight. Wet track is no issue and probably a bit of a positive. The main issue here is the 1400M – 4 starts for just the one placing and yet to win past 1200M (though there are some 1350M placings, some form guides round this up, some don’t). Guess the one 2nd at 1400M was a narrow defeat in a Stradbroke so that’s pretty decent. Just think he will get outstayed by a classier one looking for further today over the 1400M, but he is probably some place chance. Place. 6-SMOKIN' JOEY can be a little erratic to follow and does have a habit of popping up at long odds, but he is pretty good on his day. 4 times winner at Caulfield so obviously likes to hang out at The Heath. Strong finishing burst to win here 1st up, and then was well fancied here last start when was very disappointing, but was found to have a bit of a snotty nose - so you can probably forgive that run. His wet track form is probably OK seeing it includes his Group 1 Goodwood win. He has a very distinct racing style, he can be set alight early around the home turn and sustain a long run, and has drawn a nice barrier today to do that. Has race fitness on his side. Suspect he will find one better today, but if last run there were genuine excuses and he gets back to his best he is probably a pretty solid place chance here. Place. 8-WEARY is an import who has had a few campaigns up in Sydney now and has been going along pretty well. Just beaten 1st up over 1200M and goes into the race with a fitness edge on many of these. Wet track no issue and best form is often in his first few runs in each time. Drawn a shocking barrier here (16), and does often go forward so just listen out for riding tactics here as to whether they are going to press forward or drop back – there isn’t a huge amount of speed so suspect will settle just off them and out wide. 1st up run was pretty good so think means he won’t be far off them here, but prefer place from the barrier. Place. 4th W=$9.00 14-HI WORLD is a lightly raced 4YO with a good win strike rate 1st up so ticks a lot of boxes going into this race. Excellent wet track form so elevate him if more rain comes. Strung together 3 wins in a row in Sydney at the end of Autumn, and he handles it wet and can go forward and make his own luck. 1st up last time in was good when he dropped well back, but the run to really pay attention to is the excellent 4th in the Carbine Club on Derby Day last year. Is going up in class here, but will go forward from the inside barrier and will be in this for a long, long way. If the on pacers are sticking on OK then definitely goes in as a winning chance, suspect they will be coming off the rails though and winning running on late, so that just pushes him down to the placings for us and suspect he will find one better. Place. 20-CHARMED HARMONY (emerg) is a super consistent on pacer in peak form and have to feel sorry for the stable and connections as they planned to throw him in the deep end and try and pinch an early season Group 1 – and ended up as 4th bloody emergency in a capacity field. Been killing them in small fields over 1400M – is a bit suspect past that distance, and is far better on wet tracks. If he gets into the field he changes the way this race is run as will ensure a very genuine speed. But unlikely as 4th emergency. Suspect would good run down by one regardless, especially if they are winning running on late. Place. Sacking: 1-FAWKNER SCRATCHED 3-BOBAN is a highly rated Sydney sider who had a boom spring campaign here in 2013 with a fantastic win here coming from last, and winning the Epsom as well as the Emirate Stakes. Started well supported in this race last year 2nd up when failed and he didn’t seem to come up last spring. Ordinary early year form as well, but then he bounced back to his best in the feature QLD winter races. Just had the two trials coming into this 1st up over 1400M. On stats his wet track form looks a little suspect, but most of those runs were early in his career. He did win the Doomben 10,000 1st up coming from last over this trip back in May so guess it is not beyond him. Overall though his 1st up form isn’t fantastic. Watch the market, sure he will have support but really not sure we want to get on today. 1st up form isn’t the best, wet track form isn’t the best, flopped here last spring, will drop well back here in a big field – he is a class performer, but just think you are entitled to better odds today. Happy to risk. 1st W=$5.30 5-DANDINO is a UK import having his first start for a local stable, but he was here in 2013 and impressed with a fast finishing 2nd in the Caulfield Cup, and strong finish in the Melbourne Cup to be in the first 6 home. Impossible to line up these horses and we do prefer to let them have the run so we can see how they are going. Hasn’t won a race for 2 years and coming off a full year off so has obviously had some injury issues. Probably being taken along slowly being aimed for the majors later in the spring, so watch and see if there is any market support, but it does look like he will need the run. Likely to drop well back from an inside barrier here. Passing. 9-PRINCE OF PENZANCE is a handicapper stayer with a good win strike rate doing a warm up run for later in the spring. Very consistent at the end of last spring over the staying trips, but has had the full year off and likely to need a few runs to get back to form. Likely to drop well back from outside barrier and not suited under this WFA weight scale against this lot. Passing. 12-MAGICOOL has been just plain darn annoying for most of his career and has definitely had an issue with the C word – consistency. Managed to run into form late last campaign with two wins at odds, which was surprising because he had a fairly tough campaign across 3 states. Wet track should be OK. Ticks the box of the 4YO 1st up into this race which is a bit concerning, but suspect he will drop back and need the run here. No 15-SETINUM has not been a friend to the punters winning twice now at $20 in his last few starts. Lightly raced one stepping up a lot in class, but probably has a fair bit of upside. Yet to strike a wet track. 2nd up and up 200M and does face a challenge coming off winning a handicap at the bottom of the weights, and going into a WFA Group 1 event. He was lucky to win last start, the 3rd horse should have gone past him but got knocked sideways at a crucial moment. Drawn barrier (20), WFA, Group 1 – all just looks too much of an ask. No 18-TREVIERES (emerg) is a French import who just pops out to the races now and then – solid 2nd in the Toorak Handicap in 2013 followed by a lengthy 2 year break. Must have fantastic employment conditions to work one day and take two years long service leave. Will drop well back from inside barrier here. Has had two barrier trials to warm up but probably going to need a run or two to get back into the swing of things. No 19-PRESSING (emerg) is a very lightly raced 4YO with good Caulfield form. Another coming off a long break, and just the 1 run back from a full year off. Started well in the market 1st up for one coming off such a long lay off – but had won a barrier trial leading into it. Wet ground a plus. Outside barrier probably not as bad as it seems as he is a drop back and run on horse. Would prefer to wait till he returns to form though and unlikely to make it into the field as 2nd emergency anyways. No Summary: This has came up a bloody tricky race with a capacity field and not many stand out WFA horses around at the moment. The Memsie has a great list of past winners, funny how for some races the list looks a bit ordinary, but this race is top notch – SO YOU THINK, ATLANTIC JEWEL, MISS FINLAND, etc, etc. Seven out of the last ten winners of this race have been 1st up – which is no surprise as it is often the spring kick off race, and six of the last ten winners have been four year olds – so do watch out for the 1st up 4YOs going around today. The speed here should be genuine with the 10-ENTIRELY PLATINUM, 14-HI WORLD, going forward (plus the 20-CHARMED HARMONY (emerg), who is unlikely to get a run), but not overly fast. Sitting just behind these should be the 11-VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL, 16-RISING ROMANCE, 17-STRATUM STAR and think this is the group of horses you want to watch out for. We are going to put the 16-RISING ROMANCE on top here, drawn out to get a run in the middle of the track and sitting just off them think she might kick off in style for the new stable, and she has the class to win this. The value runner here is the 17-STRATUM STAR, a 4YO who should sit just off the speed and get a perfect run into the race and is very consistent, and 1st up run was much better than it looked when dropped back to last against normal racing pattern. The other class 4YO resuming is the 11-VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL and need to have a lot of respect for this one as he ticks a lot of the boxes, just watch the market to see how confident they are 1st up. Best roughie is definitely the 7-SERTORIUS and make sure you put him in your trifectas and first fours for a bit of a dividend boost. Tough race, but fairly confident we have worked it out and one or more of these selections should be fighting out the finish. One to risk: 3-BOBAN 1st W=$5.30 Roughie: 7-SERTORIUS The Key: 1st up four year olds on the rise often win this race. RESULTS: Extremely even betting race and the on pacers settle down to battle it out, but we get stung by 3-BOBAN returning to form with a rails run. 10-ENTIRELY PLATINUM excellent again, but does seem to drop off form when goes up in distance, and 17-STRATUM STAR box seating and looking the winner yet again in a race, something he is making a nasty habit of doing. The rest were all pretty even, though 2-HAPPY TRAILS is probably better than all of them and is the one to follow going forward. |
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