|CAULFIELD: MEMSIE STAKES - 27th Aug 2016|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: CLEAR - Rail: OUT 6M|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
Really good betting program at Caulfield and we are going to double up in our weekly Betting Portfolio as there seems to be plenty to bet on. Track is a GOOD(4) with just the odd shower or two around so we will probably see an improving track. Rail is out 6M but they have been running on late and winning at Caulfield recently so suspect that pattern will remain.
The early WFA races this spring have been excellent, big fields, lots of different form lines and plenty of value around. Think there are plenty of winning chance in the Memsie Stakes and donít be surprised if one of the 4YOs wins at odds 1st up Ė just hard to pick which one (we will push for 10-TAVAGO), so might be an idea to go wide in the quadrella and running doubles.
BEST BET: Race 9: 13-OCEAN EMBERS $15 WIN
Improving sprinting mare who is flying at the moment and she won for us last start here and we want to keep following her. She has race fitness on most of her rivals here, she is in career best form and seems to be going up a notch each start. Harder race here, but has an sensational finishing burst and despite the very wide barrier as long as they are running on and winning she should be able to drop out the back and storm home down the middle of the track again. Keep following her and straight out at around $5.
BEST WIN: Race 6: 3-HIGHLAND BEAT $10 WIN
Ultra consistent 3 year old who loomed but didnít quite get there last start here behind a smart one. Excellent Caulfield record and due for a win here. Keeps running competitive seconds, but really liked the way he loomed last start and should improve further today 2nd up. Back straight out at around $5.50
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 13-MISS PROMISCUITY $10 EW
One of our favourite horses and think we have collected on her at each of her 4 wins here. Yet to miss a place in 6 starts this track and distance. 1st up, but drawn well and big plus is that she can position right on the speed here, whilst some of the more favoured runners are back markers. Should get the run of the race and present at the right time and suspect she is going to be very hard to run down. Very keen each way at around $8 which seems well over the odds.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 3-LORD OF THE SKY $7.50 EW
Honestly think this is the first time we have ever tipped this horse Ė usually quite keen to take him on. But he might get things to suit today Ė seems to have ironed out all his issues and really good win here 2nd up in the Bletchingly. Taken on in the lead in the Lawrence last start and really given no hope, they totally flew along in front. Note Oliver goes back on board here and there doesnít seem to be as much pressure up front. The 1400M is a big query obviously, but has race fitness on his side and given a soft run might be able to pinch this race. Last bit will be the test with the 4YO stayers flying home late, but think looks an decent each way bet at around $12. The 10-TAVAGO the value 4YO runner resuming to watch out for.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 4-MAGNPAL $7.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 4-MAGNPAL#2,8,11 x $6 = 200%
Surprise improver last spring who won this race and went onto win the Naturalism. Has been good in his two runs back this time in, and was hitting the line really well in the feature race here last start when was a bit unlucky not to finish even closer after getting squeezed for runs. Only beaten 2.2L in a strong WFA race last start and looks suited here today out the 1700M and ready to win. Back each way at around $7 and should be some value in the quinella in an even field of stayers, so anchor in a quinella with the 11-SECOND BULLET, 2-TAIYOO, 8-BERISHA.
QUINELLA: Race 3: 11-MAJESTIC LASS, 5-MY SISTER LIL x $3
QUINELLA: Race 3: 11-MAJESTIC LASS, , 4-VIBRANT ROUGE x $3
The 11-MAJESTIC LASS was given no chance last start at Sandown, got shuffled back to near last and was giving them a huge start on the home turn but worked home really well. Should jump and sit on speed today and be in the finish, and in a big field the quinella should pay OK. Letís take a quinella with the (5) who is racing well and the (4) who has been running on late and seems to be looking for the 1400M today.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 13-MANHATTAN BLUES $4 EW
One that can be a bit hard to follow, but 1st up run down the straight was excellent when dropped well back and got lost at the back of the field but flew home to finish 5th. Horror draw today may be an issue, but the tempo should be OK in a big field and they should be able to run on OK. Nice rough chance at around $17 in a race where you probably want to find one at odds.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 12-BADAJOZ at around $3.40
One we have absolutely no time for who seems to keep dropping back and running on late into the placings. Consistent form, racing well, and placed 8 from 12 and is drawn well today, but just would prefer to back something at odds in a big even field and the $3.40 on offer really doesnít interest us in the slightest.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 4,5: 5,6,13,15,19 / 13-MISS PROMISCUITY x $5 = 100%
We found the value winner JUST MAGICAL 1st W=$18.90 in our selections last week and got the running double, but just needed more value in the 1st leg. Letís try it again this week, there is a good chance of a value winner in Race 4 with the likes of 13-MANHATTAN BLUES, 19-CHASE THE HORIZON, 15-GRANDE ROSSO and the $8 on offer about our Best Each Way bet 13-MISS PROMISCUITY should ensure a $100+ collect if we can find both winners.
Race 1: 2-SEBRIKKA, 3-LEOTIE, 7-RED VELVET SWING
Race 2: 3-HI WORLD, 9-PRINCE OF BROOKLYN, 8-JUNGLE EDGE
Race 3: 11-MAJESTIC LASS, 5-MY SISTER LIL, 4-VIBRANT ROUGE
Race 4: 13-MANHATTAN BLUES, 19-CHASE THE HORIZON (emerg), 6-CAMDUS, 15-GRANDE ROSSO
Race 5: 13-MISS PROMISCUITY, 1-UNDER THE LOUVRE, 3-SANTA ANA LANE
Race 6: 3-HIGHLAND BEAT, 5-BLUE TYCOON, 9-HARDHAM
Race 7: 3-LORD OF THE SKY, 2-BLACK HEART BART, 10-TAVAGO
Race 8: 4-MAGNPAL, 11-SECOND BULLET, 2-TAIYOO
Race 9: 13-OCEAN EMBERS, 5-CHOOSE, 12-MOSSINíAROUND