|CAULFIELD: MEMSIES STAKES - 2nd Sept 2017|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: WINDY - Rail: OUT 6M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Great meeting to kick off official spring racing for those who follow the old-fashioned, pre climate change seasons. Lots of quality horses going around and a really good quality feature race. Track is currently a GOOD(4) and should firm up on a predicted windy day with some showers coming later. The wind is the key factor here and really hard to judge the racing pattern until the day. Would probably prefer to be on leaders/on pacers (which was the definite pattern here last meeting), but the strong wind may mean you want some cover and leaders have no hope.
Really interesting feature race and just about all of these have some chance in a wide betting race. The favourite the 5-VEGA MAGIC is flying and was a really tough winner here last start, but just have some concern about having to trail behind the 6-CHARMED HARMONY burning along in front. Although he is a chance, think he is under the odds against some smart proven WFA horses. Happy to go the 1-BLACK HEART BART with his impeccable Caulfield and 1400M record, has been set for the race and generally takes a run to peak and wasnít suited on the slow track here last start. Did enough though 1st up, and beat most of these home and looks the one to beat there. The 8-HEY DOC just seems to keep improving and may be the 4YO that goes to be the genuine WFA horse as the main danger and the super consistent 2-LE ROMAIN the other chance. Would love to see 6-CHARMED HARMONY win a Group 1, the dry track will be against, but will run much better than the odds suggest and give you some bang for your punting dollar and is clearly best roughie. Plenty of value about the top two picks though at around $7 against a favourite that seems under the odds.
There have been quite a few well backed short priced favourites early on, and some of them really donít look any value at all, Race 2: 8-OREGONíS DAY, Race 3:4-THEANSWERMYFRIEND, Race 7: 5-VEGA MAGIC, Race 9: 2-GRANDE RUSSO. Donít think any of them deserve to be that short in large fields with some depth, and there are good odds about other decent chances. Of course you could also always just multi them all up (just in case we are totally wrong). Race 8 is utterly horrible with dozens of international stayers bouncing around with form that is impossible to line up.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 13-PRINCESS OF QUEENS $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 13-PRINCESS OF QUEENS, 11-SWAMPLAND x $2
QUINELLA: Race 2: 13-PRINCESS OF QUEENS, 7-VITAL IMPORTANCE x $1
This one has been racing really well and fitter for the 3 runs in. Always had a bit of potential and looks really well placed into this, winner track and distance, and can probably take up a good on speed sit in a race with not that much speed. Back each way now at around $9, as suspect the money will come for this one before race day, and take a quinella with the main danger the 11-SWAMPLAND who is flying at the moment, and the roughie 7-VITAL IMPORTANCE who has a nasty habit of winning 1st up at long odds.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 10-PLOVERSET $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 10-PLOVERSET#4,5,6,11 x $4 = 100%
Improving 3YO who has been racing really consistently and really knuckles down and fights out his finishes. There isnít a lot of speed in this race and should be able to lob on speed with cover and present at the right time and looks a solid each way bet at around $10. Plenty of value in the quinella if you look away from the favoured runners with the 11-BOOKER, 5-MURAAHIB, 6-EVIL CRY and 4-HUALALAI all some chance at odds.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 1-BLACK HEART BART $5 EW
Super consistent WFA dry track 1400M horse who has been aimed for this race. Does tend to need the run 1st up and not at best on wet tracks, so think the 1st up run was excellent and beat home a few going around here. Should have plenty of improvement to come, and suited back to a dry track. Late breaking news of possible feet issues, gear change and on course vet inspection are a bit of a concern though. Back each way at around $6.50 and really if he is at his best he should just about win this.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 12-DIVINE CHILLS $3 EW
We backed this one last week, but happy to go again. Got held up for runs at a crucial stage around the turn last week and chased hard once in the clear. Start before that was excellent here looping into the strong wind. Probably prefers a little bit of give in the ground but looks well placed into a Group race here with race fitness and form on her side. Nice rough chance at around $26.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 7-LEGLESS VEUVE $3 EW
Under rated sprinting mare whose best form is fresh, on dry tracks, at Caulfield. First up back in Feb she won here 1st up with a late gear notification of bar plates off. They went back on in later runs last campaign when she didnít race her best. Today we have the same thing, 1st up, and a gear change of bar plates off and thatís a positive sign. There is a bit of speed here so would probably want to take a sit, but think she is worth keeping safe at around $13.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 1-JUSTICE GLORY at around $4.20
All punting eyes on the Lay of the Day as we go for three unfortunate winners in a row. We might as well get the pain out of the way early in the 1st race. Very even betting race with not much between these and this one did beat a few of these home last start, but there wasnít much between them at all and the others get some substantial weight turn arounds. Also think a few behind him last start have a fair bit of improvement to come and prefer to risk this one today.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a house on The Block.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 2: 13-PRINCESS OF QUEENS
PLACE: Race 4: 10-PLOVERSET
PLACE Race 5: 12-DIVINE CHILLS
PLACE: Race 7: 6-CHARMED HARMONY
Doubling up on our selections already, but the Race 2: 13-PRINCESS OF QUEENS and Race 4: 10-PLOVERSET look nice each way bets so will hopefully get into the placings at least, and a fit, in form Race 5: 12-DIVINE CHILLS may run better than expected at odds. Even though he isnít in our tips and does prefer some give in the ground, there would be nothing better than coming home on a long shot multi with the Race 7: 6-CHARMED HARMONY bowling along in an uncontested lead and kicking clear in the straight and think the $8 the place is great value. Looking at a extremely ambitious $2000 for a $5 outlay.
Race 1: 6-JUDY IN DISGUISE, 3-MAHLANI, 2-PROSECUTION
Race 2: 13-PRINCESS OF QUEENS, 11-SWAMPLAND, 7-VITAL IMPORTANCE
Race 3: 9-SAINT VALOREM, 4-THEANSWERMYFRIEND, 18-BATTLECAMP(emerg), 13-DEVILS PINCH
Race 4: 10-PLOVERSET, 11-BOOKER, 5-MURAAHIB
Race 5: 2-FUHRYK, 12-DIVINE CHILLS, 5-JENNIFER LYNN
Race 6: 2-VOODOO LAD, 4-SHEIDEL, 7-LEGLESS VEUVE
Race 7: 1-BLACK HEART BART, 8-HEY DOC, 2-LE ROMAIN
Race 8: 3-TALLY, 15-DULVERTON, 7-AMELIEíS STAR
Race 9: 19-ANAHEIM (emerg), 12-RED ALTO, 2-GRANDE ROSSO, 4-CHOCOLATE HOLIC