|CAULFIELD: MEMSIE STAKES - 1st Sept 2018|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 6M|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
Coming off a pretty successful week last week with 6/9 top selections winning, but it does make it a lot easier at MV when you just need to play Spot The Leader. Off to Caulfield this week, track is a GOOD(4), there are a few showers around and a bit of wind. Probably wonít affect the track too much, consistent showers Friday might just tip it into the SOFT range. But with some wind and the edge off the track it will probably play like it did last meeting and they will come off the rails later in the day and they will be able to run on OK.
We have a fascinating feature race in the Memsie, and pretty much all of these have a winning chance and it is going to be a very interesting tactical race. 3-VEGA MAGIC is a firm favourite and deserves to be, but we have a few queries on the horse today. He is a horse that is best leading, but the pace here is quite solid with the 5-JUNGLE EDGE, 6-DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR, 10-SHOWTIME going around and we need to line up the Lawrence 1400M form from last meeting and the Bletchingly form, which probably isnít as strong. He won this race easily last year, but led that day, and today he is probably going to have to sit on a pretty solid speed, on a track that may turn to favour those running on out wide. 1400M is as far as he wants too. Very impressive win in the Bletchingly, but also think he was primed to fire 1st up there as they wanted to get a spot in The Everest. He also is best on firm ground so just keep an eye on the track rating. Bottom line, he is a flying horse on his best form, and might just be too good for them here, but actually think we might search for value elsewhere in a pretty talented field where most have some chance.
Normally these early 1400M WFA races favour on pacers in fields full of backmarkers warming up for the spring, but we have a very solid tempo today with the four on pacers the (3), (5), (6), and (10). We can see a stack of chances here away from the favourite. The 1-HAPPY CLAPPER has an impressive first up record and has the class to win this, most importantly he can sit just behind the speed here and be the first to come out after the on-pacers. The 7-KINGS WILL DREAM was excellent late in the Lawrence, and is going to get the race run to suit here, outside barrier, fast speed, track favouring runners on, puts him right in the finish, and has a huge amount of career improvement to come. The 8-KEMENTARI will also be suited by the fast speed and likely run on pattern, fitter for the 2 runs in and has the brilliance to win this. He was just a little flat 2nd up behind WINX. He has run well both times here, but could have probably won both starts, not entirely sure he is a Caulfield horse, watch to see if there is a move for him in the market. The 9-GRUNT seemed to hit a flat spot on the turn here last start, but was grinding home, concern today is the inside barrier and sitting behind 3-4 leaders if he gets the run through or not. Think the extra speed today may bring 10-SHOWTIME undone, but hard to knock the Lawrence winner. We can even give a good push for the roughie of the field the 11-OREGONíS DAY. She has a super finishing sprint, and good record this track and distance. Fitter for the one run in where she probably ran better than expected, is up 200M and into tougher grade at WFA, but think she gets the race run to suit, fast speed, outside barrier, and swooping down the middle of the track with a fast finishing burst. She is a genuine rough chance here, though does want the track to stay firm.
Very deep betting race and think you can easily back horses away from the favourite here. Going to put the 7-KINGS WILL DREAM on top, even though he wonít be at peak heading towards later spring targets. His 1st up run was sensational, race should be run to suit, is on an upward career path and think he can win this. The ever consistent 1-HAPPY CLAPPER as the main danger who should get the run of the race here and just always puts in at this level, and has the class to win this 1st up. Going the roughie 11-OREGONíS DAY for third who think might run a lot better than most people expect if she hits her sensational finishing burst she is right in this.
For the rest of the card, even though we have a pretty obvious favourite in most races there are plenty of great value $10 plus chances as well and suspect there are going to be a few winners at nice odds. There are a stack of value runners in the selections, and we have found some huge value roughies this week. So save on some wide running doubles as there should be some decent dividends today. Of course if you are taking a Quaddie put the 3-PRUSSIAN VIXEN in the last leg, she has a tendency to win the last race at Caulfield at long odds. We are going to double the Betting Portfolio up to $100, mainly because we want to have a crack at a value double later in the day.
BEST WIN: Race 6: 6-SEABROOK $10 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 6: 6-SEABROOK#11,12,15,16 x $4 = 100%
Big field of up and coming 3YOs, but think this one is classy and should go on with it this spring. Hopelessly unlucky here in a Blue Diamond Prelude in the Autumn and then went on to win feature races in Sydney. Drawn out and racing pattern should suit strong finishers late. Back straight out at around $6 and there are a few at odds in this race to watch out for, the 11-NATIVE SOLDIER who was good late here last start, the roughie 16-NUCLEAR BLITZ who ran OK against the pattern last week at MV and should be fitter for the 2 runs in and has drawn a good barrier, the smart QLD visitor 15-GRANNY RED SHOES and the 12-THE AUGUST. Should be a good value quinella away from the favourite if the runners on run over the top of them here.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 16-LADY OF FLANDERS $7 EW
Looks to be a class mare on the way up and one to follow this spring. Two wins this time in have both been excellent, was challenged here two starts back, but drew away from them to the line and then at Sandown really fought them off well. She has drawn well here to sit on speed from a middle barrier, and is race fit in a field with lots of horses resuming. Think she is going places, and want to keep following her this spring. Each way at around $6.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 9-BELLARIA $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 9-BELLARIA#4,8,11 x $6 = 400%
Consistent mare who was slowly away last start and was making good ground late in the race. Excellent 1400M stats and just hoping the jockey goes forward here from an outside barrier as she can race on speed and there is little to no pressure up front in this. If she lobs on speed she will be hard to run down, so back each way at around $10 and take some quinellas with the leader the 11-ARTIES DREAMWINNER, the consistent 4-SPANNER HEAD and the roughie 8-JENNIFER LYNN whose form is better than it looks as she keeps getting blocked for runs inside runners and may do something drawn out today.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 14-WHEAL LEISURE $7 EW
Promising stayer who deserves to win a feature staying race sometime, but just needs to be placed and set for the right race. Strikes a winnable race today. 1st up just had a bit of trouble getting around a runner and then hit the line pretty well. Up to 1700M here suits, might be a bit more forward than most of these who are also stayers early in their preparations. Probably needs to settle in the front half of the field though in a race with not much speed. Looks a value each way chance at around $15.
DAILY DOUBLE: Races 7,9 : 1,7,11 / 3,5,6,9,17,18,19 x $21 = 100%
Plenty of value in the feature race in a deep betting market, especially if the favourite gets swamped late. Look for the (7) and (11) swooping late down the middle of the track, with the (1) presenting into the finish as he normally does. Wide open last race with plenty of rough winning chances and we want to have a crack at a large Daily Double here. Note the (17), (18), (19) are all emergencies so lets hope one or more get into the field as they all have some chance at odds.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 16-NUCLEAR BLITZ $2.50 EW
For the roughies, letís see if we can spot some that should have finished closer at MV last week but didnít because of the leaderís bias. This one was wide most of the way and fought on well in the straight and should be fitter for the 2 runs in. Has drawn a nice barrier, does meet a talented field, but probably has a fair bit of career improvement to come so might run a lot better than the long, long odds, suggest. A little something each way at around $41 and probably even longer come race time.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 11-OREGONíS DAY $3 EW
Classy mare with a super finishing sprint and she is capable of being a factor in this race if the track is favouring those running on. Better drawn outside horses and will drop back . Doubling up on our Daily Double bet, but hope to see her sizzling down the middle of the track at around $40.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 19-PRINCESS OF QUEENS (emerg) $2.50 EW
This one has had two total forgive runs this time in. First up went to the lead and got caught up in a totally ridiculous speed battle and faded. Last start settled back on the leaders track and made good ground late. Should be fitter for the 2 runs in and does go well at Caulfield. Main issue is going to be getting into the field as 3rd emergency, so is probably an unlikely starter, but would be really interesting to see how she goes if she does get into the field. Around $40 and probably stays those odds even if she gets a start.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 8-CALL ME HANDSOME at around $3.50
It hurts us to do this, as we have been following, backing and tipping this horse this spring and thought he would go on too. Fit and in form, and he does look the leader here in a race of drop back stayers is a plus. But just suspect the 1700M is a big issue here, think he leads and kicks into the straight but suspect one of the more staying types is going to run over the top of him. Happy to risk at around $3.50.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
EARLY QUAD: Races 2,3,4,5 : 1,3,11,12,15,16 / 4,9,11 / 9 / 10,12,14 x $5 = 9.3%
We are always surprised how quickly the Early Quad blows out when there is a result out of the ordinary. You should be able to anchor the 9-NIGHTíS WATCH in the third leg here, horse on the up, suited with some rain around and meets a pretty ordinary field. In the first leg we are keen on 16-LADY OF FLANDERS, but it is a pretty open race, so go wide with a few others, including roughies, the (3), (1) (11), (15), (12) and hope for a result. Think we are pretty safe in the second leg with just the selections (9), (11), (4). In the last leg come home on the value runners (14), (12), (10) and hope the favourite and Lay Of The Day doesnít sting us. Only around 10% of the dividend, but we have a lot of $10 chances in the other legs so might be a decent blow out if something out of the ordinary wins.
Race 1: 3-JAAMEH, 5-MASTER ZEPHYR, 6-RED ALTO
Race 2: 16-LADY OF FLANDERS, 3-OBERLAND, 1-HIGHLAND BEAT
Race 3: 9-BELLARIA, 11-ARTIES DREAMWINNER, 4-SPANNER HEAD
Race 4: 9-NIGHTíS WATCH, 1-LITEíN IN MY VEINS, 3-FASTNET TEMPEST
Race 5: 14-WHEAL LEISURE, 12-MISS ADMIRATION, 10-RAW IMPULSE
Race 6: 6-SEABROOK, 11-NATIVE SOLDIER, 16-NUCLEAR BLITZ
Race 7: 7-KINGS WILL DREAM, 1-HAPPY CLAPPER, 11-OREGONíS DAY
Race 8: 3-VOODOO LAD, 8-BALL OF MUSCLE, 4-RICH CHARM
Race 9: 5-I AM EXCITED, 19-PRINCESS OF QUEENS (emerg), 9-CREATIVITY, 17-LEATHERíNíLACE