|CAULFIELD : MEMSIE STAKES - 31st August 2019|
|Track: SLOW(5) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
We have a really good program of racing this Saturday, with a pretty interesting Memsie Stakes field and an extremely strong Cockram Stakes. Fine weather is forecast heading into the weekend and we are assuming this track will improve to a GOOD(4) from the current rating. Rail goes back to the TRUE position for the first time in a while, and on a warm sunny day just keep an eye on the racing pattern to see if it favours those on speed.
There are quite a few winning chances in the feature Group 1 Memsie Stakes. 1-HARTNELL is ultra consistent in these WFA races, especially over the 1400m where he has placed 8 from 10, and at Caulfield where he has placed 8 from 9 runs. His 1st up run was great where he was closing on the line, and he should be around the finish somewhere, just not sure he will be suited from barrier 1 here and think he prefers more running room these days. The 5-SCALES OF JUSTICE was super impressive winning here two starts back, didnít beat much, but really liked the win and it showed a lot of class and happy to forgive the Adelaide defeat 2nd up. The 6-CLIFFS EDGE was absolutely cruising on the home turn here last start and think he just ran out of puff a bit 2nd up, expect yet more improvement and the firmer track will also suit, they might even tear him along to a big lead today. We are happy to take on the promising 9-BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER today, there is a huge spruik on him, but he got a soft lead last start on a track that favoured leaders, and today he goes up substantially in weight, goes up in class, is likely to be caught wide from a wide barrier with several other on speed horses in the race and think he has enough against him to risk him. The 11-ALIZEE doesnít seem to have any trouble with Caulfield (unlike many other Sydney runners) and measures up well against this field, and the best rough is definitely the tough on pacer 13-FUNDAMENTALIST who meets the (9) a whopping 7.5 kgs better off for their last meeting here.
The speed here looks to be genuine with the 6-CLIFFS EDGE leading (tearing away in the lead?), 5-SCALES OF JUSTICE, 7-DESPATCH and 9-BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (wide) sitting behind, and 13-FUNDAMENTALIST getting a great on pace sit. Pretty keen to back the 5-SCALES OF JUSTICE here, that last win was really dominant, and he looks to get a good sit right on the speed here and might really let loose on the home turn. The 11-ALIZEE should have enough speed on to run on from behind, especially if they tear along in front, and drawn out means she will get a clear run at them. Suspect the 13-FUNDAMENTALIST is going to run a race today, she just seemed bogged down last start with the 59kgs and should be fitter 2nd up, and the extra distance will suit. 6-CLIFFS EDGE and 1-HARTNELL genuine dangers but may just find one of the top three better.
This is a great program of racing to watch, not sure it is a great betting program for value. There are clear cut, short priced favourites in most races, and nearly all of them are in form, improving horses who will lead or race handy and will be very hard to beat. So it would be no surprise to see 16-DIAMOND EFFORT, 4-MY PENDANT, 13-PIPPIE and 18-AGE OF CHIVALRY all win, but letís seek some value away from the obvious picks in the suggested bets.
BEST WIN: Race 8: 5-SCALES OF JUSTICE $7 WIN
Incredibly impressive win 1st up in the Bletchingly when he let loose and raced away from them, and happy to forgive the 2nd up run over in Adelaide when just tired late and was run down by one with a big weight pull. Drawn to get a perfect sit on speed here, should be even better on a firm track and suspect he is more forward then many of his rivals here. Keen to back straight out at around $5 but suspect will get better odds come race time.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 9-SAMíS IMAGE $4 EW
One we actually manage to catch and have had a few good collects on. Trick is he needs a few runs in, a firm track and not much pressure up front. Both his runs this time in have been excellent, he should be peaking today, and is much, much better suited on a dry track. Has drawn out and will go forward, chances really just depend on how many others push up inside him, like the (16), (3) and (6). But think he will be able to roll along on speed in clear running and is going to run a race today. Nice each way bet at around $14.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 12-VALAC $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 12-VALAC#8-GUIZOT, 14-BENTOITE x $2 = 100%
Not a race we were overly keen to get involved with, with lots of spring stayers early in their campaigns and no idea how forward most of them are. But one thing that really sticks out is that there is no speed in this race at all, and this one should get an uncontested and easy lead. He does normally take a few runs to find form, but usually kicks off at shorter distances, and should give you a good run for your money in the lead at around $12. Back each way and anchor in quinellas with the only two fit horses in the field, the flying, rapidly improving 14-BENTOITE and Caulfield specialist 8-GUIZOT.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 2-SPANISH WHISPER $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 7: 2-SPANISH WHISPER#5,7,13 x $3 = 100%
We were tossing up for quite a while in this race between the 2-SPANISH WHISPER and the 5-EMBRACE ME, so we are going to back this one each way, and the (5) in the Turf Deli Wonder bet in a Daily Double. This one is a consistent on pacer who looks to get a perfect spot here as the only other speed in the race is the favourite the (13). Will depend how forward she is 1st up, but has the class against these and looks to get the perfect run. Each way at around $13, and save on the quinella with the talented 5-EMBRACE ME, the favourite 13-PIPPIE and the flying 7-MISS IANO, who we would love to back if there was more speed or if the track pattern shows they can run on and win.
QUINELLA: Race 5: 3-KING OF HASTINGS, 7-SHOTMAKER, 1-DUBIOUS boxed x $6 = 200%
Pretty even field here for the 3YO race with quite a few chances in an even betting market so the quinella should pay pretty well. The 3-KING OF HASTINGS looks a promising type who should position right on the speed here and have every chance, the 7-SHOTMAKER was excellent here at his first start and then out gunned in the Blue Diamond but looks to have a fair bit of untapped ability, and watch out for the 1-DUBIOUS who jumped really well here last start, didnít press forward, ended up in the wrong spot and the ride was just a total mess. Quinella should pay OK in an even field.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 13-TRIBAL WISDOM $2.50 EW
We backed this one last start, and even though he finished second last we are actually still keen to stick with him. Talented type with a really good finishing burst who has a victory over OSBORNE BULLS to his name. First up down the straight the heavy track was always going to be the query, and he looked to be running into the race at around the 400M, but was closest to the inside and hard against the outside rail was the place to be and he just floundered. Happy to forgive that run and give him another chance here in a race with a lot of out of form non-winners. The 18-AGE OF CHIVALRY is in the field now with the scratchings and is definitely the one to beat, especially if he leads and the track favours those on speed, but suspect the (13) is going to run a race at around $26.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 4-ANOTHER COLDIE at around $5.50
Awful first race with a small field of horses we totally donít care about and no form. This one has been racing OK and been thereabouts, but first time out to the 2400M and was stopping really quickly at the end of the MV 2000M last week. Just think one of those fancy overseas horses will outstay them here and happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a enough to buy the candy factory.
DAILY DOUBLE: Races 7,9 5-EMBRACE ME / 13,14,16,18,19 x $5 = 100%
Talented sprinting mare who is remembered for her amazing MV win over the Autumn. The 1st up run had plenty of merit, was on a heavy track, the 1000M was too short, but she was working home well late. Much better suited here, just a question of how fast they go in front here and if they can run on and win OK. She is more of an either she wins, or she doesnít place horse, so have backed the 2-SPANISH WHISPER in this race each way and in the quinellas as the safer bet, and looking for a value running double here if she pops in the first leg at around $13. In the second leg the favourite the 18-AGE OF CHIVALRY is hard to beat, but is probably going to start prohibitive odds and there is plenty of value elsewhere in the field with horses like the 13-TRIBAL WISDOM, 19-ROX THE CASTLE (emerg), 14-ANTAH and 16-HANG MAN.
Race 1: 5-EXEMPLAR, 7-CEDAR GRANDE, 6-JINDA
Race 2: 9-SAMíS IMAGE, 16-DIAMOND EFFORT, 10-IíM TELLING YA
Race 3: 4-MY PENDANT, 2-MUSIC BAY, 7-HAY NOW
Race 4: 12-VALAC, 14-BENTOITE, 8-GUIZOT
Race 5: 3-KING OF HASTINGS, 7-SHOTMAKER, 1-DUBIOUS
Race 6: 4-VEGA MAGIC, 1-BALL OF MUSCLE, 3-GYTRASH
Race 7: 2-SPANISH WHISPER, 5-EMBRACE ME, 13-PIPPIE
Race 8: 5-SCALES OF JUSTICE, 11-ALIZEE, 13-FUNDAMENTALIST
Race 9: 18-AGE OF CHIVALRY, 13-TRIBAL WISDOM, 19-ROX THE CASTLE (emerg), 14-ANTAH