|CAULFIELD: MEMSIE STAKES - 29th August 2020|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SUNNY, WINDY - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
Definitely something to break the lockdown gloom in Melbourne with the Memsie Stakes day fields bumper with loads of quality horses and lots of value to be found. Which is a nice change coming off the squalor of the abandoned Moonee Valley meeting last weekend which was a total write-off. We have fine warm and windy weather heading into the weekend, so this track should dry out nicely from the current SOFT(5) and be a GOOD(4) and firming and rail back to TRUE may favour those on-speed. The wind may make a difference though, so maybe cover on the fence in big fields might be the racing pattern. We are likely to see quite a few form reversals coming off weeks of rain affected tracks.
The feature Memsie Stakes is extremely tricky to line up, but letís try and sort them out. There looks to be a very genuine speed here, which is unusual for an early WFA race. The 10-BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER looks the likely leader (shotting off in the lead again?), with the 5-STREETS OF AVALON (crossing from wide barrier), 8-ICONOCLASM, 15-GLENFIDDICH also pushing forward, and the 12-ARCARDIA QUEEN and 13-SAVATIANO sitting in nice positions behind them. Hard to line all of these up so early in the spring, and also very hard to know who is going to improve the most of the horses coming through the Lawrence Stakes two weeks ago.
Going through the field, the 1-REGAL POWER we want to see again coming off only an even first-up run and the 2-HARLEM and 3-GATTING are outsiders we are happy to let go around first up. The 4-SO SI BON is one you should have a close look at, at odds, despite his reputation. He is 2nd up here, but ran 2nd in this race last year when he was coming off a 1st up win in the Aurieís Star, and his 1st up run this year in the same race was actually was a lot better than it looks Ė he was lumped with 60kgs, they went very slow up front and he was hitting the line really well. Half of his wins and placings have been at Caulfield, and he will get a nice smother here from an inside barrier and think he might run a race today. We let our heart rule our head last start with the 5-STREETS OF AVALON, in hindsight the wet track really wasnít his thing and interestingly his 2nd up record is starting to look a little shabby. 3rd up and onto a dry track is a big plus for this one, he has drawn wide and will have to cross the field, but he wonít be far off the finish today and will be in the race for a long way. The 6-MR QUICKIE is just too erratic for us.
The 7-BEHEMOTH has a stack of ability and is aiming for big things this spring and has always shown a fair bit of promise. He is often a bit slow out though, and that inside barrier is a real concern for us, can see him trapped back in the field on the fence inside a lot of stayers just warming up and he is going to need luck to get into the finish so actually happy to go around him today. The 8-ICONOCLASM needs a firm track and gets it, he constantly has to lug big weights so WFA might not be that big an issue, and is going to sit right behind the speed here and is very genuine when right so might go a lot better than the $51 suggests. The 9-CASCADIAN has a sensational finishing burst and will be fitter for the first up run when he ran home nicely along the inside. Nice middle barrier here and would be good if Oliver could settle him mid-field and outside horses in clear running, if he does think he is a very genuine chance here and looks primed for this race. The 10-BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER was looking like he could be anything this time last year, injury and loss of form means it is hard to know exactly how he is going. The 1st up run was even, but worth noting there also wasnít any great market support for him. He will lead and really if he found his form from last year he would just about win this, but just canít tell how he is going so maybe watch the market for betting moves. The 11-MYSTIC JOURNEY is another we want to see again off the first up run, she is meeting three horses here who finished in front of her and they probably have the same or more room for improvement. The 12-ARCADIA QUEEN will improve a lot off the first up run which was pretty honest and working home well, and coming off a long lay off. Big plus with her is that she can settle better than midfield from an outside barrier and in clear running to swoop at them, so think she is a major factor here. The 13-SAVATIANO is very under rated, she loves to box seat and present at the right time, has an excellent win strike rate and 1400M distance stats and likely box seats here again. Canít knock her winning chances at all, though she only just got past SIRCCONI last time and just get the feeling one of those who finished just behind her might have move improvement to come today. The 14-PRINCESS JENNI is a pass, and the 15-GLENFIDDICH creates interest as the 3YO with no weight at all (50.5 kgs!), and trainer Moody has made an interesting placement here. Just think winning 1st up at 1400M as a 3YO might be a challenge, but keep an eye on the market.
So after all that where do we land? We think there are two main winning chances and they are the two with the most improvement coming out of the Lawrence, the 9-CASCADIAN and the 12-ARCADIA QUEEN. Going to put the flashy 9-CASCADIAN on top, would love them to settle better than the back of the field form a good barrier, and if they do he is perfectly set to sprint over the top of them here. He should have a lot of improvement off his 1st up run and first Melbourne run and should get the speed to suit today running on. The main danger is the 12-ARCADIA QUEEN who probably gets a better run in the race and looks ready to win now off a good 1st up run. We are actually going to push for the 4-SO SI BON for third, just his form from last year is quite similar and he will be suited with cover in the middle of the field if the wind springs up and likes tough windy days. Winning chance to the consistent 13-SAVATIANO, and for exotics the roughies to watch are the 8-ICONOCLASM and 5-STREETS OF AVALON who wonít be far off them.
Tough program with plenty of horses kicking off their Spring Campaigns and hard to know how forward some of them will be, especially with restrictions on horse movements and barrier trials in Victoria. Monster program with 10 races, 238 horses entered and 63 (26%) of them are 1st up this spring Ė so really difficult to know how forward they are and watching betting moves. So we will be tending towards those that race fit and drawn a good barrier. Plenty of double figure chances in the selections and we are going to double up the suggested Betting Portfolio just because there are plenty of value runners to play with so having a bet in most races. Today is a good day for wide trifectas are there are likely to be plenty of value place getters in big fields. We appreciate everyone has different financial circumstances in these troubled times, so stay home, stay safe and bet responsibly.
BEST WIN: Race 9: 9-CASCADIAN $7 WIN
BEST WIN: Race 9: 12-ARCADIA QUEEN $4 WIN
Think these two are the best chances in an open feature race, both with plenty of improvement to come off good first up runs. The 9-CASCADIAN has a fantastic finishing burst and the speed on here will suit and drawn to flash down the outside, maybe just needs to be ridden a tad closer in the run than dropping out last. The talented 12-ARCADIA QUEEN should have plenty of improvement off the good first up run and looks to box seat behind the speed here and suspect this will be the one the money will come for. In an open betting race we can back both of them straight out at $10 and $7 respectively.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 14-THE CLOSER $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 6,11,14,15 boxed x $3 = 50%
Extremely even field in the second race, but surprised about the $12 on offer about this one, especially seeing the first up run here was good when had no luck getting a run in the straight. Nice inside barrier to sit behind the good speed and should burst through late if the gap comes this week. Back each way, and save on a value quinella with the talented 11-EXPRESS PASS who looks like he might finally live up to his potential this spring, the consistent and fit and well-drawn 15-CHASSIS who was ridden forward against normal pattern last start, and throw in the monster roughie the 6-PRAVRO at $71 who we tipped last week but didnít get a start, was pretty good 1st up at Sandown, gets an apprentice claim and might run into the finish here.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 17-SO YOU SWING $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 2,16,17 boxed x $6 = 200%
We have been following this one last few months and the poor fella hasnít got much of an even break. He has been scratched quite a few times because he was an emergency and couldnít get into the field, was emergency again today, but there has already been a scratching so guaranteed a run. Flashed home late on heavy track to just miss last start and he is actually much better on dry tracks which he finally gets today. Went forward on a swoopers track start before that at Sandown and given no chance, and was building nicely to a win the previous two starts. Jockey Kah is in good form and expect them to go forward from an outside barrier here and settle behind the speed and just looks ready to win finally in a suitable race. Back each way at around $16 and we are actually pretty confident on a value quinella here with the two on-pacers the 16-THOUSAND WISHES, 2-LABURNUM in a race where there doesnít seem to be much pressure up front.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 10-RUBAN BLEU $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 4,8,10,14 x $3 = 50%
Consistent type who doesnít win out of turn but also struggles to find the right race. Pretty sure he is better on dry tracks and he looks well suited here today coming off two 1400M runs where he was hitting the line well, and needs to be outside horses and in clear running room. Fit, racing well and apprentice claim helps and he should get a nice run into the race here. Back each way at around $17 and save on a quinella with the leaders the 4-YULONG JANUARY and 8-MORRISSY and the value runner in this is the 14-BATTLE TORQUE who goes OK at Caulfield and has been racing well before last start flop on a leaders track when was lame.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 11-RANTING $7.50 EW
Pretty even 3YO feature race but you get the feeling this one has a bit of upside. Had good support 1st up in the Vain and looked to be cruising on-speed coming to the turn, but the 3-OUR PLAYBOY went past him impressively. That one has drawn badly today, there is a slight weight turn around as well, but most importantly can see the (11) camping on-speed here and there doesnít look to be that much pressure up front and think he will derive a lot of improvement off that 1st up run and looks to be one on the up. Each way at around $10.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 11-PLEIN CIEL $7.50 EW
Very consistent type who just got dictated to by a leader last start and couldnít run him down. That was coming off a 6 week let-up, so should have plenty of improvement to come and has won 4 from 7 here at Caulfield. Probably better on firm tracks, has a race fitness advantage over many of these, and drawn outside runners to run into the race at the right time. Each way at around $9.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 8-BEDFORD $2.50 EW
Under rated strong finisher who has a good career win strike rate and a four time winner here at Caulfield. Fitter for the 3 runs in, won impressively off a fast tempo here two starts back and then worked home well in a messy race at MV on a day favouring those on-speed. Drawn out, will drop back and run on but has race fitness on his side and last run probably a lot better than it looks. Nice rough chance with good career form at $21.
BEST ROUGH: Race 10: 14-STREET ICON $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 10: 9,12,14,15 x $3 = 50%
One we are guilty of tipping too often, but she does has a sensational finishing burst when right and has run some great races in top class company. Fitter for the 1st up run here when worked home OK, and the step up in distance will suit. If she pulled out one of her best runs she would be right in this at around $18. Plenty of value in this race and a bit concerned about the classy short-priced favourite here the 1-RUBISAKI dropping well back from an outside barrier and giving fit on-speed horses head starts, so again plenty of value in the quinella. The two on-pacers are the race fit 9-SHEíS A THIEF who is better on a firm track and the 17-FELICIA, and the main danger is the flying 12-BLESS HE, so that makes for a value quinella in the last.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 14-AFFAIR TO REMEMBER at around $4
Classy performer, but so often has no luck and hard to have her 1st up here over 1400M. Drops well back in the run, 1st up over 1400M, always seems to find trouble and she is going to be standing the leaders a big start here from an inside barrier and have to go around the whole field Ė and donít think there is enough pressure up front here to allow her to run on. Happy to risk at around $4.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough for twenty six million vaccine doses.
TRIFECTA: Race 9: 9, 12 / 4,5,9,12,13 / 4,5,8,9,10,12,13 x $5 = 12.5%
Should be plenty of value around in the trifectas today with the likelihood of some nice value place getters. In a wide open feature race we like the 9-CASCADIAN, 12-ARCADIA QUEEN as the main winning chances and there is plenty of value in the trifecta if dear old 4-SO SI BON runs a place. Suspect one or more of the on-pacers will stick on, so fill the placings with the 5-STREETS OF AVALON, long shot 8-ICONOCLASM and the speedy 10-BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER. Trifecta should pay well in a big even field.
Race 1: 4-TAVIRUN, 1-EXEMPLAR, 2-DOUBLE YOU TEE
Race 2: 14-THE CLOSER, 11-EXPRESS PASS, 15-CHASSIS
Race 3: 17-SO YOU SWING, 16-THOUSAND WISHES, 2-LABURNUM
Race 4: 10-RUBAN BLEU, 8-MORRISSY, 14-BATTLE TORQUE
Race 5: 7-POLLY GREY, 4-AL GALAYEL, 8-BEDFORD
Race 6: 6-GARNER, 2-SUPERSTORM, 12-HUMMA HUMMA
Race 7: 11-RANTING, 8-KHOEKHOE, 3-OUR PLAYBOY
Race 8: 11-PLEIN CIEL, 8-SIRCCONI, 16-SHANDY
Race 9: 9-CASCADIAN, 12-ARCADIA QUEEN, 4-SO SI BON
Race 10: 14-STREET ICON, 12-BLESS HER, 15-FELICIA