|CAULFIELD : MEMSIE STAKES - 28th August 2021|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Fine clearing weather heading into the weekend and shame we canít set foot on track as things really are about to take off for Spring. Even though there is some give in the track now it should firm up before race day and even more so during the meeting. Rail back to TRUE means every horse should have itís chance, even the ones we back.
The Group 1 Memsie Stakes is all about class and probably want to focus on those proven at this level. There doesnít seem to be much pressure up front here, the 5-RED CAN MAN can jump and lead here with the 3-STREETS OF AVALON sitting outside him, the 6-SANSOM getting a perfect trail from the 7-AEGON and the 4-ARCHEDEMUS. Smallish field means every horse will get its chance, but the lack of speed means you probably want to look towards something with a class turn of foot that can quickly accelerate.
Going through the field, the 1-FIFTY STARS can be a bit hot and cold, but is a grinding type who prefers Flemington, over further and with the speed on, and normally takes a few runs to run into form each campaign. The 2-BEHMOTH is an absolute super star and was impressive first up, even though he only won the race on protest, he stalked and let down very nicely. Won this race 2nd up last year off the same lead up form when jumped well and got a perfect run into the race. Probably better drawn out a bit is a plus as he can be slowly away sometimes, and he has the turn of foot to quickly get into the race off a slow speed. Last minute jockey change, but was dominant this time last spring before taking a wrong turn into the Everest and looks the one to beat again. The 3-STREETS OF AVALON is the proven Caulfield 1400M WFA horse and really he should be able to pick off these early spring WFA races, but for whatever reason he does seem to tend to struggle in the Spring. Pulled up lame last start so he did have excuses, but he also ran below par in the Lawrence and Memsie last spring off a good fresh run, and despite being a huge fan of the horse probably need to see him step up at this level before getting on again. At his peak form, leading or racing on-speed though he could easily win this if right. The 4-ARCHEDEMUS is a genuine on-pace miler, who was OK here 1st up and will probably get a lot of improvement from that run. Drawn wide and probably goes forward to sit just behind the speed, hard to see him winning this but probably a chance to run better than the odds suggest and a good value runner for exotics. The 5-RED CAN MAN is hard and fit and has been racing well and the firm track is a big plus for him. Probably goes forward to lead and dictate the race here, wonít be too far off, but you just get the feeling at 1400M at this level he is more likely to find one or two better. Genuine place chance though.
The 6-SANSOM got the perfect sit off the speed here 1st up and then didnít seem to appreciate being crowded inside runners 2nd up when dropped out. Firm track is a plus, the 1400M is the query for him, probably best chance is to scoot through from an inside barrier and try and lead and turn this into a sprint which is how he won his other 1400M race. The 7-AEGON is one to be wary of, NZ galloper who was very classy with his Sydney win earlier this year, then just didnít seem to go on with it that campaign. Stable has a good record at setting 4YOs for these sort of races and he will probably sit just off the speed here and get a good run into the race. One to keep safe and keep an eye on the market. The 8-BEAU ROSSA is a very smart Adelaide sprinter, who tried to control the race against the (1) last start and only lost on protest. Proven at this level and should have no trouble with the distance, after only just missing here back in April when stepping up sharply in distance. Question is going to be where he settles from barrier (1) here, he can race forward if required, would be a little concerned if he settles back in the field on the inside and the others get to sprint for home out wide before him. The 9-COLETTE surprised with a dominant 1st up win last preparation, drop back horse who might go well fresh but she does look like she prefers some give in the ground and suspect this track is going to be quite firm by the time this race is run. The 10-TOFANE continues to perform at the top level, the two QLD winter wins were sensational and she seems to be racing in career peak form now after being a bit hot and cold (but obviously having a stack of ability) earlier on in her career. Definitely has the class to win this, maybe slight question if maybe she is better Sydney way of going? The 11-INSPIRATIONAL GIRL is a classy WA performer 1st up and they seem to be churning out these sort of horses on a regular basis over in the free states. Firm track suits, will drop back and run on, question will just be if they go fast enough for her here 1st up, but watch the market and definite chance. The 12-SIERRA SUE has always shown a heap of ability, but been a bit hard to follow but really had them covered here last start on the home turn. Distance and career stats are excellent, this is probably harder again and a classier field, but seems pretty good odds for the Lawrence winner into the Memsie and might be under-rated.
Found this a pretty tricky race to line up with plenty of class horses fresh and much will depend on the racing pattern and speed. Suspect they arenít going to go that quickly here, so want to be on a class horse that can quickly accelerate out wide and put themselves into the race, which clearly points to the 2-BEHMOTH as the top pick off a great 1st up run. Looks well drawn to do just that and looks the one to beat on form. Wary of the NZ galloper the 7-AEGON, if he repeated his first up win last preparation he would probably go close to winning this and stable have caught us out before in these sort of races, looks to get a good run into the race here, so will be keeping him very safe. Putting the 12-SIERRA SUE in for third, this is much harder than last start, but she may be under-rated and looks value as the last start track and distance winner. One of the one pacers will probably stick on into the placings for those looking for value exotics, just a bit hard to know which one. Not a race we are overly keen to bet on with lots of unknowns, but a great race to watch and probably just a straight out win bet on the top pick for interest sakes.
Really great racing program to watch as we get quite a few potential spring stars returning, like Race 5: 1-MASKED CRUSADER at $1.80, Race 6: 1-PROBABEEL at $2.10 and Race 9: 11-ARYTON at $2.10. Does make it tough from a value betting point of view though, and the last minute jockey changes throws another element into the mix. We are most concerned about the jockey change on Race 9: 11-ARYTON who can be a tricky horse to ride, and may end up giving a very fast speed a big head start here 1st up. We will be treading lightly with a mainly straight out bets on a day where there doesnít seem to be that much value and might be some skinny exotics.
BEST WIN: Race 8: 2-BEHEMOTH $7 WIN
One of the more open races of the day, but this guy is all class and has a super turn of foot on his day. Like that he is a run ahead of most of his rivals who are 1st up. Won this race last year, excellent 1st up run, suited sitting out in space and sprinting around them as they turn and looks the one to beat at around $4.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 8-GALGANI $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 8-GALGANI#2-ANNAVISTO, 4-NEED NEW FRIENDS x $4 = 200%
We have a fair bit of time for this one and think she might go onto better things. Had a freshen up, but last few runs were superb, got caught chasing a tear away leader last start and stuck on well, and start before that was leading on a windy day that favoured those running on and she was one of the very few to stick on on-speed. Apprentice with 3kgs claim here to an extremely light weight and should scoot to the lead here and be very hard to run down, maybe just an issue of fitness levels the last little bit. Looks a great each way bet at around $9 and an excellent value anchor quinella with the classy 2-ANNAVISTO and the value runner the 4-NEED NEW FRIENDS who is much better suited over this distance.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 4-OXLEY ROAD $4 EW
Promising sprinter who burst clear down the straight on the inside last start, only to be run down late by one down the outside rail who is pretty classy herself. Fitter for that run and did look the winner about 50M out there so suspect he just finished on his run a little and is going to show a lot of improvement today. Should lead here, good chance the track will favour those on-speed and despite being up against the very talented 1-MASKED CRUSADER, that one can be slow away, is going around Melbourne way of going and just may be giving the leader too big a head start here when they turn for home. Each way at around $8.
QUINELLA: Race 7: 2,6,8,10,18 boxed x $5 = 50%
One of the few open races of the day and the Heatherlie Stakes is always a big field and often plenty of value around. We are actually keen on the second emergency here the 18-KINANE who might be ready to do something now with the three runs in and is drawn well to run into the race, just not sure if he will make the field or not? The leader the 10-NO EFFORT is always tough to run down, even on firm tracks, and has a huge race fitness advantage here against a field of drop back stayers. Respect for the class of the 2-ANGEL OF TRUTH off a great 1st up run, the 6-ROSTROPOVICH was closing nicely 1st up from a long break, and the 8-MOSH MUSIC looks value as a promising stayer with a good win strike rate. Plenty of value around so box them up in a quinella in a tough race.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 7-KINGS FULL $2 EW
Not sure if this one is going to run as did race Sandown Wednesday. Rolling on-pace staying type whose recent form has actually been a lot better than it looks, has been caught wide a few times, or caught up behind runners and not able to accelerate quickly. The run at Sandown last Wednesday was excellent when caught three wide for most of the trip on a leaderís track, looked the winner and still not quite sure how he didnít get the photo? If runs he can lead here in a small field and dictate and might be hard to run down at around $15, maybe the last bit a test on trial at the 2400M.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 6-SECRET BLAZE $2 EW
QUINELLA: Race 9: 2,6,10,11,12 boxed x $5 = 50%
We are up against a short priced favourite in the 11-ARYTON in the last race and is going to be interesting to see how the market reacts to the jockey change, as this is a pretty trick ride first up in a race where there seems to be a stack of speed from the 1-GROUNDSWELL, 3-FROSTY ROCKS, 15-IMPERIAL LAD, which might mean some horses are giving them big starts before the turn. The 6-SECRET BLAZE is better known as a stayer, but was surprisingly good 1st up and much better suited here now over 1400 with a fast speed from a good barrier so might do something at around $16. Plenty of value if the favourite gets into the wrong position, with the lightly weighted strong finishing 12-KING MAGNUS, also the strong finishing 2-GAULOIS, and the 10-REGARDSMAREE whose run down the straight 1st up was probably better than it looks.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 2-INSTANT CELEBRITY at around $4
We have been neglectful and not declared a Lay of the Day in the weekly tips, though it is hard this week with several classy short priced favourites. This one is very classy, but also does tend to drop back and get into awkward positions and suspect 1st up she may give some of these too big a start and be running home too late. Also has to take on a super classy top weight in the 1-PROBABEEL as well and probably give her a start. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into 25 million vaccine doses, pronto.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 2: 7-ZORROíS DREAM
PLACE: Race 3: 8-GALGANI
PLACE: Race 5: 4-OXLEY ROAD
PLACE: Race 6: 10-DIAMONDS INTHE SKY
Frustrating effort last week and again mid-week landing the last 3 legs of a 4 leg multi. So all the pressure goes on the consistent Race 2: 7-ZORROíS DREAM who looks good value at P=$3.20 for a horse that has placed his last 8 starts and 16/18 career starts (what could possibly go wrong!). We hopefully cruise through the middle legs with the leaders Race 3: 8-GALGANI and Race 5: 4-OXLEY ROAD and come home on the value leader in Race 6: 10-DIAMONDS INTHE SKY who might find one better, but should give us a run for our money. Looking at around $350 for a $5 outlay.
Races 6,7,8,9: 1,9 / 2,6,8,10,18 / 2,7,12 / 2,6,10,11,12 x $20 = 13.33%
We deserved better last week kicking off in the first leg with a $35 winner against two short-priced favourites, but not landing any other legs. We can go narrow in the first leg this week with the classy 1-PROBABEEL, but donít be surprised if the 9-PARLOPHONE give her a race at nice odds. Go wide in the open Heatherlie and this is where the value will come. We have already backed the 2-BEHEMOTH straight out in the feature Memsie, but add in the 7-AEGON, 12-SIERRA SUE and come home wide in the last leg where we suspect the favourite 11-ARYTON may be vulnerable.
Race 1: 4-HEIR TO THE THRONE, 7-KINGS FULL, 3-TOORADIN
Race 2: 8-DEEP SPEED, 7-ZORROíS DREAM, 10-OUR WIND SPIRIT
Race 3: 8-GALGANI, 2-ANNAVISTO, 4-NEED NEW FRIENDS
Race 4: 9-HERESY, 1-ARTORIUS, 2-GENERAL BEAU
Race 5: 4-OXLEY ROAD, 1-MASKED CRUSADER, 5-VIRIDINE
Race 6: 1-PROBABEEL, 9-PARLOPHONE, 10-DIAMONDS INTHE SKY
Race 7: 18-KINANE (emerg), 10-NO EFFORT, 2-ANGEL OF TRUTH, 8-MOSH MUSIC
Race 8: 2-BEHEMOTH, 7-AEGON, 12-SIERRA SUE
Race 9: 6-SECRET BLAZE, 12-KING MAGNUS, 11-AYRTON