|CAULFIELD: MEMSIE STAKES - 27th August 2022|
|Track: SOFT(7) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Lots of rain late in the week, but a clear day Friday and fine weather Saturday should see this track on the improve. Currently a SOFT(7), but should easily get to a SOFT(6) and probably even the better side of that with a sunny day forecast. With rail going back to the TRUE position and a bit of wear and tear towards the middle of the track suspect the racing pattern will favour those on-speed and if the weather does really warm up the inside may dry out quicker than further out. This looks a pretty good punting program with a good mix of races and plenty of good horses resuming for spring so expecting a few value results in reasonably sized fields. There is a bit of depth to these fields and lots of winning chances away from those at the top of the market.
For the feature Memsie Stakes, the speed actually looks genuine for an early WFA race with the 14-SNAPDANCER probably going to the lead, from the 3-ALLIGATOR BLOOD ridden more forward, the 10-LIGHTSABER on-speed and the 12-TOFANE box seating with the 6-CALLSIGN MAV and 11-ILLATION both probably caught wide. Often fit on-speed horses can win these early WFA races in fields full of spring stayers having warm up runs and even though the speed is a bit more genuine this year expect it will be those on-speed fighting out the finish.
Going through the field, the IíM THUNDERSTRUCK will drop well back first-up and will need the speed on and for them to be winning running on, but definitely has the talent to win this first-up. Maybe watch the market, but the issue always is he is giving good horses on-speed a head start in these sort of races. The 2-CASCADIAN similarly needs the speed on and seems to keep his best races for Flemington so surprised he is so well in the market in this. The 3-ALLIGATOR BLOOD has been covered in controversy for some time now, but seems to be right back at his best now he is with a new stable, the two runs for the new stable have both been excellent. Maintains a whopping 50% win strike rate and looking to avenge the Caulfield Guineas defeat here a few years back when looked like he had the race won (and yes we were on SUPER SETH). Drawn wide and dropped back last two runs, but a good barrier here and jockey Oliver should see him going forward and maybe even siting second and he will have a fitness edge over these and be very hard to beat on-speed. The 4 NONCONFORMIST is doing Caulfield Cup warm up laps, and needs it firmer, but will probably be finishing on late for an eye catching 5th or 6th. The 5-WESTERN EMPIRE is the mystery WA runner and we seem to get one of these in just about every race during spring these days, they do quite often match up so watch the market, but probably caught wide early from this barrier. The 6-CALLSIGN MAV will go forward and be caught wide, probably does have a good spring race in him somewhere but maybe not this one. The 7-ELEPHANT isnít up to these at WFA. the 8-ZEYREK is a promising stayer resuming who will find this too short and the 9-DRAGON LEAP is a NZ 6 year old who doesnít seem to have much market support
The 10-LIGHTSABER is probably the best of the roughies here, best races are rolling forward on-speed, is well drawn and will race handy, probably wants the track firmer side of slow but may stick on into the finish in this. The 11-ILLATION is three starts for three wins and rightly has a huge buzz on him, but even after winning impressively itís a big jump in class into this field. Be interesting to see the betting market, but he seems to be a bit on the easy side and main concern is that he is going to be caught wide here from an outside barrier and has to beat proven Group 1 horses in this. The 12-TOFANE looks the one to beat, her best form is fresh, she loves these early WFA races where the tempo is on the slower side and she can sit and sprint away from them and last two Caulfield 1400M first-up runs have been a 3rd and a 1st at Group 1 level. There does seem to be a bit more speed than usual here but she should be able to box seat, guess we would want to see the track on the improve and on the better side of soft , but she does look the one to beat and is well proven in these sort of races. The 13-DUAIS is a promising stayer heading toward the Cups and may ran on late into a placing first-up so is a good value runner for trifectas and first fours. The 14-SNAPDANCER is a very interesting runner and she does seem rather under-rated, she keeps winning good races at good odds. She is the likely leader here and drawn well and given a soft run in front she might be hard to run down Ė only concern with her is that she does tend to find the 1400M just a few centimetres too far so concern would be others are stronger at the end of the race. She is better on firmer ground too, so would want a strong on-speed pattern and track better side of slow (which is not impossible).
This looks a strong betting race, but really suspect either the 12-TOFANE or 3-ALLIGATOR BLOOD wins as the proven Group 1 performers racing handy and sprinting away from them here. Putting 12-TOFANE on top, but will be saving on the 3-ALLIGATOR BLOOD from the 14-SNAPDANCER on-speed and the strong finishing IíM THUNDERSTRUCK. Best roughie is the 10-LIGHTSABER sticking on into the finish. This is probably a good first four race with the 12-TOFANE and 3-ALLIGATOR BLOOD being in the finish and hoping something at odds lobs for fourth.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 9-STARLIGHT SCOPE $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 9-STARLIGHT SCOPE#3-MEGAMEA, 7-SAIGON x $2 = 100%
Small field and this one really fought on really well leading last start to only just be grabbed on the line on a day that favoured those running on late. Looks a clear leader here and good chance the racing pattern will favour those on-speed early in the day, ready to win with 4 runs this time in and big plus of race fitness on many going around here. Confident each way bet at around $9 and looks a really good bet in a small field on-speed. Save on a quinella with the main danger 3-MEGAMEA who is absolutely flying and only just missed when wide all the way here last start and the Sydney visitor the 7-SAIGON.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 3-FLYING MASCOT $3 EW
Classy mare and there are a few classy mares in this race who are proven at the top level up against the well-deserved hype on the short priced favourite the 7-PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE so probably prefer to back them at the odds on offer. Excellent career strike rate, well drawn middle barrier to sit off them and run into the race and just needs them to run along a bit in front here to allow her to run into the race (not totally sure how much speed there in this though?). First up back in the Autumn she ran a close 2nd to PROBABEEL over Caulfield 1200M when last first-up. Capable of winning this with the right run at around $9
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 12-TOFANE $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 12-TOFANE#1,3,10,14 x $2 = 50%
Proven Group 1 1400M mare who runs her best races fresh and last two first-up runs have been a win in the C.F.Orr here back in February and a 3rd in this race last year, so she looks really well suited here. Trick with her is that she can race handy in these early WFA races where the speed and tempo isnít that fierce and the field is heavy with backmarkers and she can sprint away from them. Probably a bit more speed here than normal and to be honest think she prefers a track on the firmer side, but assuming we get to a better side of SOFT(6) at least. Back each way at around $6 and save on a quinella with the talented comeback kid the 3-ALLIGATOR BLOOD, the leader the 14-SNAPDANCER, the strong finishing 1-IíM THUNDERSTRUCK and maybe the 10-LIGHTSABER as a value runner.
QUINELLA: Race 1: 12-STORM KING, 3-RESURGE, 6-SPANISH TIDES boxed x $3
We are not sure that some of the more favoured runners in the first race run out a strong 2000M so there may be a value quinella to kick off the day with the in-form 12-STORM KING leading, the 3-RESURGE who is fitter for the two runs in and has excellent 2000M stats and is great value at $20 and the 6-SPANISH TIDES who continues to race well and she is under-rated and always strong at the end of her races, she may just need a little luck dropping back from an inside barrier off a slow tempo here though.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 8-ATLANTIS TYCOON $2 EW
We have actually ended up finding the outsider of the field at $51 here, but genuinely think he is a chance here. Impressive win here first-up this course and distance when he ran on strongly from well back (which is something that is hard for 2YOs to do) and went around a disappointing favourite the start after at Flemington and turned out after that. Drawn out, will drop back and run on hard here late if they put the pressure on up front and there does look to be a fast speed here. These early 3YO races often throw up value winners and really just about every runner here have some chance, so why not go the outsider?
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 2-KALLOS $1.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 2,3,7,10,13 boxed x $5 = 50%
Winner of the Danehill down the straight last spring and hit the lead over in Adelaide last start before being run down late by a very smart one going places. Drawn out and can sit back a little here off what looks to be a very strong speed and may be running over the top of them late here fresh at around $20. There is likely to be a lot of pressure up front in this race with the 3-GENERATION, 4-IN THE BOAT, 6-RED CAN MAN and 1-OXLEY ROAD all going forward and suspect we may see the leaders getting swamped late. So aim for a big rough box quinella with the 2-KALLOS, the 3-GENERATION, the 7-SHOOTING FOR GOLD who will be strong late and wasnít suited in a sit-sprint down the straight last time, the talented 10-STAR PATROL and even the outsider of the field 13-FORTUNATE KISS isnít hopeless fresh off a fast speed.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 10-DESERT ICON $2 EW
Tough on-speed stayer when right and fought out the finish well 1st up over a shorter trip. Much better suited out to 1700M here and should go forward in a race full of backmarkers stayers first-up so should stick on into the finish at around $12.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 6-JACQUINOT at around $6
There arenít that many obvious Lays today with quite a few winning chances in most of these races. This one has an absolutely stack of ability but continues to be slowly away from the barrier which has seen him beaten last two tries here when favourite. Really concerned about the insider barrier here in a tough competitive field, but totally concede given the right run he can probably win and sting us.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a new Caulfield racecourse apartment.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 2: 9-STARLIGHT SCOPE
PLACE: Race 4: 2-BUFFALO RIVER
PLACE: Race 6: 7-SHOOTING FOR GOLD
PLACE: Race 9: 10-DESERT ICON
Letís go for a Poor Manís Quaddie being an All Up Place bet on four horses and really canít think of two better kick offs than the leaders in Race 2: 9-STARLIGHT SCOPE and Race 4: 2-BUFFALO RIVER. The roughie Race 9: 10-DESERT ICON should be around the finish in the last race which means we just need to find a value runner somewhere else on the program and there are plenty of live options, but letís go with Race 6: 7-SHOOTING FOR GOLD finishing on strongly and looking at around $500 for a $5 outlay.
Races 6,7,8,9: 2,3,7,10,13 / 3,7,8,11 / 3,12 /4,7,8,9,10 x $20 = 10%
Hoping to load up the first leg and get a value kick-off and that includes roughies like the 2-KALLOS, 7-SHOOTING FOR GOLD and 13-FORTUNATE KISS and the main four chances should get us through the second leg. Pretty confident you can narrow down the main race to just the 12-TOFANE, 3-ALLIGATOR BLOOD which means you just need to find something at odds in the open last leg for a nice dividend.
Race 1: 12-STORM KING, 3-RESURGE, 6-SPANISH TIDES
Race 2: 9-STARLIGHT SCOPE, 3-MEGAMEA, 7-SAIGON
Race 3: 11-EL ROCKO, 13-ATTRACTABLE, 17-CORONA LAD (emerg), 7-PASCERO
Race 4: 2-BUFFALO RIVER, 9-GENTLEMAN ROY, 12-NICOLINI VITO
Race 5: 8-ATLANTIS TYCOON, 12-AFT CABIN, 9-LINCOLN SQUARE
Race 6: 2-KALLOS, 3-GENERATION, 7-SHOOTING FOR GOLD
Race 7: 3-FLYING MASCOT, 7-PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE, 8-ISOTOPE
Race 8: 12-TOFANE, 3-ALLIGATOR BLOOD, 14-SNAPDANCER
Race 9: 9-JIMMY THE BEAR, 10-DESERT ICON, 8-NO EFFORT