Solid amount of rain forecast for late Friday and Saturday and yet somehow this track is only a SOFT(5) on Saturday morning, which is really surprising, would have to be worse side of SOFT. Few showers still to come and really strong winds around Friday and Saturday as well. Suspect it is going to be hard to win leading and probably want to go towards those getting cover in the run and finishing on strongly, they may even edge off the inside in the straight as well.
Last week was a lesson in punting frustration for the $50 Betting Portfolio, with six suggested bets for one win, four seconds and a third and being live in the Turf Deli Wonder Bet to collect $600, only for the last leg favourite to run a closing second. Really big program this week, with big fields most of the day and sure to be plenty of value exotics around and long priced horses in the finish. First half of the program is extremely difficult though with lots of horses kicking off spring, so we have doubled up the Betting Portfolio to $100 with a lot of $10 chances to consider and some value quinellas.
For Spring Campaign 2025 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 9: 3-ANTINO $10 WIN
Not much between the well-performed Group horses in the feature race and really it’s pretty hard to split them so you need to just take a stance and pick one. This is not one we normally follow, but he has that touch of brilliance to him that may make the difference here in a slowly run early Spring feature, he can unleash a really quick turn of foot. Missed the start in this race last year and ran on well first-up, as long as he jumps cleanly today he may run over the top of them late at around $6.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 12-SASSY BOOM $5 EW
Drying track is a big plus for this one and she has been close to a win this preparation. Will jump to a clear lead (would want the wind to lessen), but can’t see that much pressure here up front and she may kick clear here in the straight. Race fitness on her side against a lot of first-up horses she can run them off their feet in this. Got caught up in furious pace here last start and burst through to hit the lead but was swamped late, softer run here and she is right in the finish at around $10.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 4-BERKELEY SQUARE $5 EW, QUINELLA 4#3,6,14,15 x $4 = 100%
This one always takes a few runs to run into form each time in, and looks ready to do something today with three runs this time in, and was closing well last start at MV (which doesn’t suit his long sustained finishes). A few runs ahead in the preparation against most of his rivals here, drawn wide suits this one who needs to make a long run at them and jockey is an expert in how to ride him. Back each way at around $10 and anchor in a quinella with the 3-BANKERS CHOICE who was racing well over the QLD winter and can control the speed here, the 6-BASILLINA who would prefer a wetter track, he 15-TARAMANSOUR who might be ready to do something at odds today 3rd up and the 14-REVELARE who will be suited back on a firmer track.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 15-TOO DARN DISCREET $7.50 EW
Four year old mare who is heading onto better things this spring, absolutely whooshed past them late at Flemington, and then unlucky to not get the photo here last start flying home. Slight step up in distance will suit, windy day and strong finishers should be suited and he is going better than most of these. Repeat of last run here would win this. Confident each way bet at round $6
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 8-EXPRESS CLASS $10 EW
Under-rated early season 3YO who was the outsider of the field winning his first start at Sandown, but flew past the field there with some ease and the second horse there won a feature race here last meeting. Settled off them here last start, had to get into a clear path and finished on hard. Likely to be suited up to the 1200M here today and will be suited if racing pattern is strong finishers. Looks to be one on the way up and keen to have a bet today at around $10. Main bet of the day.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 16-IMPENDING SHADOW $3 EW, QUINELLA 1,4,14,16 boxed x $6 = 100%
We were hoping for a wetter track when we tipped this one, but will stick with him anyway. Does drop back and need the speed on and the racing pattern to allow him to run on late, but he has been racing pretty consistent recently and wasn’t suited by a leader dominated race here last start. Something each way at around $21 and this looks a good value quinella race with the classy 1-ON DISPLAY, the 4-GALA QUEEN who will be well backed again most likely, and the strong finisher 14-FEARLESS WRITER as the other roughie of interest in this race.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 5-WROTE TO ARATAKI $2 EW, QUINELLA 2,5,7,10,11 boxed x $10 = 100%
This one can take a few runs to find her best each time in, but she has kicked off in this race last two years for a 3rd in 2023 and a 5th last year when was leading till late. Nice barrier trial coming into this where chased one down and likely to go forward here in a race where there doesn’t seem to be that much speed. Might do something at around $35 and this is a good wide quinella race with the 7-ABOUNDING coming off a good QLD winter, the 10-POP AWARD on the way up who pulled away from them here last start, the classy 2-MAGIC TIME and the 11-STRETAN ANGEL who has been racing in feature sprints.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5:11 BRAYDEN STAR at around $4
Big even field and don’t quite understand why this one is favourite? Worked home OK first-up, and more suited out in distance today, but hasn’t won in two years now and is probably better with another run in and over longer ground. Prefer others.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a gold plated room for meeting overseas guests.
EARLY QUAD: Races 3,4,5,6: 2,5,12,13,15 / 3,4,15 / 15 / 3,4,8 x $5 = 11.11%
Cheeky early quad going one out in the third leg on Race 5: 15-TOO DARN DISCREET and hoping for value in the other legs.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 2,6,11,12,15 / 5,7,10 / 1,3,6 / 2,4,8,10,12 x $20 = 8.88%
Go wide in the first leg, stick to the selections in the middle two legs with even fields and no clear cut favourites and come home wide in the last leg in an open race. With few clear cut favs this quaddie will pay well today if something out of the ordinary wins.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 9: MEMSIE STAKES 1400M GROUP 1
Much has been made of the depth of this early WFA race, with the Sydney wet driving horses down to Melbourne for a run. We have next to no speed in this race, but that isn’t unusual for these early WFA races with the 4-HERE TO SHOCK looking the clear leader, from the 6-ANOTHER WILL, 11-TREASURETHEMOMENT and the 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE probably stalking them. Race is likely to turn into a class turn of foot finish though off a slow tempo.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-MR BRIGHTSIDE needs no introduction as the super tough and super consistent campaigner over the last few seasons. Yet to be unplaced this track and distance and has won 6/8 which is astounding. First-up Caulfield 1400m record is outstanding, 2nd in the C.F.Orr this year, 2nd in the Memsie last year, won the C.F.Orr last year and won the Memsie in 2023. Wet track won’t worry him, nor a lack of speed, but definitely will improve with a run or two in. Happy to respect his record and his consistency and he will be stalking the speed into the straight. Strong chance.
2-TOM KITTEN probably should have a better record, flashing home late quite a few times in his career. Strong second here in the C.F.Orr earlier this year when flashed home late and probably should have won. Extremely capable on his day and probably we have not seen the best of this one yet. Maybe just a little query on a track the worse side of SOFT, would prefer him on firmer ground, but also keep an eye on the market first-up for a new stable. Prefer place.
3-ANTINO has some serious brilliance, some of this wins have been outstanding, but he also doesn’t always show it. Blew the start in this race last year and was clear last, ran on well to finish 4th. Well in the market suggests he is ready to perform today and he probably has the sharpest turn of foot out of these in a slowly run race. Can see him peeling to the middle of the track and running over the top of these late. Strong chance.
4-HERE TO SHOCK looks a clear leader here and can dictate the tempo. Outclassed by the winner here last start but held ground to the line. Most of his recent form has been on dry tracks, but wet track doesn’t look to be any issues. Has race fitness over most of these. Just a bit hard to see him beating so many top line horses today. Prefer place.
5-BUCKAROO is using this as a spring staying feature kick off and hard to see them going fast enough here to allow him to run into the race. Likely to take a few runs to find best here and will be out the back of the field giving a few with a sharper turn of foot a head start. No
6-ANOTHER WILL has an excellent first-up record (3/4) and at this distance (5/7) and track (4/6). Likely to go forward from an inside barrier and get the run of the race off a slow speed. Will off rails be the better ground by this race? Market has him favourite and fair enough, but there probably isn’t that much between the top 3-4 here so just watch he doesn’t get backed into silly odds. Strong chance.
7-PINSTRIPED won this race last year in a much weaker affair coming off a strong finishing 2nd in the Lawrence, and this year he was running on nicely for 7th in his lead-up run in the Lawrence and that run was probably better than it looks. Wet track no issue, wide barrier probably means he will have to drop back here, but they should be able to run on OK. Seems over the odds at $41 and he is the best roughie in this field and quite capable of running top four, dropping back and giving some with a class turn of foot a head start may prove to be a challenge though. Rough.
8-IS IT ME was sent out favourite in Adelaide 1st up and had every chance there. 2nd up and up to the 1400m. Super consistent when in form but he is up against quite a few proven Group horses and this looks too hard. May end up back in the field on the inside which could be an issue too. No.
9-FANGIRL comes down to Melbourne after missing runs in Sydney due to the wet weather. Has won 11/33 but probably should have won more, her drop back and run on racing style means she can be too late into the finish. Won 4/9 first up, 5/9 at distance and handles it wet and all of these have such impressive records. Query with her is 1st up Melbourne way of going, dropping well back in a field where they are not going to go hard up front, so she is going to be giving most of these a pretty decent start as a Sydney horse around Caulfield (danger!). Has the class to win, but out of the top liners this is the one we would probably be taking on. Risking.
10-ZARDOZI has been a bit of a frustrating horse to follow since her VRC Oaks win in 2023. Been thereabouts in plenty of feature staying races, but just seems to run top four, even though she has put in some slashing runs. Loves the wet track, but set for staying preparations these days and will need a few runs in first. No. SCRATCHED
11-TREASURETHEMOMENT is coming into this off an extraordinary 8 run winning streak, but today is the big challenge as the classy 3YO staying filly into open grade in her 4YO season. Always fascinating to see how these progress and line up, quite often they don’t make the jump to the next level, but she is well above the usual standard classy filly. She did win against open class mares at Flemington, but we need to try and line up how strong the fields were in her other wins. Soft trial win going into this. To be realistic, these losing streaks normally come to an end when they rise in class or opposition, and that is quite likely to be today. Can sit just behind the speed, but prefer to be on the more seasoned WFA horses. Chance, with reservations.
Summary:
Fascinating race with a string of high class proven WFA horses all with excellent track, distance and first-up records and there really isn’t much at all between the top few here and they are hard to separate. We are going to go 3-ANTINO on top, he looks suited here sprinting home off a slow speed down the middle of the track and he still has a bit of an X factor about what he is capable of. The ever-consistent 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE the main danger, who seems great value considering his record and the 6-ANOTHER WILL with good fresh form. These are the main three for us and probably not much between them. Best rough is the 7-PINSTRIPED but that may be just a run on into the finish for 4th. Hard to bet confidently as you need to take on so many good horses so will mainly be watching this great race.
Race 1: 16-RUAKAKA RAIDER, 10-HAARACAINE, 12-LITZDEEL
Race 2: 16-IMPENDING SHADOW, 4-GALA QUEEN, 14-FEARLESS WRITER
Race 3: 12-SASSY BOOM, 13-CAPPER THIRTYNINE, 15-JENNI THE FOX
Race 4: 4-BERKELEY SQUARE, 3-BANKERS CHOICE, 15-TARAMANSOUR
Race 5: 15-TOO DARN DISCREET, 19-WHISKY ON THE HILL, 16-STATUARIO
Race 6: 8-EXPRESS CLASS, 3-TYCOON STAR, 4-JIMMY RECARD
Race 7: 12-SHE’S BULLETPROOF, 2-ARKANSAW KID, 6-ZARASTRO
Race 8: 7-ABOUNDING, 10-POP AWARD, 5-WROTE TO ARATAKI
Race 9: 3-ANTINO, 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE, 6-ANOTHER WILL
Race 10: 8-GREEN FLY, 12-HOME RULE, 10-SEPALS
