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| MOONEE VALLEY: MOIR STAKES - 27th Sept 2013 |
| Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 3M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): It is hard work being a punter these days and trying to keep up what races are on when during spring, they chop and change every year. There is a fair bit of rain forecast through Weds and Thurs and showers again for Friday night so suspect this track is going to come up genuinely wet and probably towards slow so look for genuine wet trackers. Rail was TRUE here last meeting on Dato Tan Stakes day and the racing was even. Rail goes out 3M here and always a chance as the rail goes out at MV that it will favour on pacers, and night meetings tend to favour on pacers regardless. Watch the early races, but on a wet track at a night meeting with more rain coming and the rail out think the on pacers will be the way to go. Just keep an eye on the weather there is a chance of a fair bit of rain Friday night and this meeting could get quite sloppy. Moonee Valley are running with the feature race as the last race of the night too – and 10pm is so past our bed time. Actually quite like this meeting, the Bill Stutt Stakes and the JRA Cup are normally really good races to have a bet on. The Moir is now a Group 1, replacing the Manikato Stakes which was run on this night a few years ago, so they replaced a Group 1 1200M sprint with a Group 1 1200M sprint. Brilliant ! Actually pretty much every race is a Group race these days. As always with a MV meetings there isn’t a huge amount of value here, but plenty of solid straight out win bets in the $4 to $6 range looks the best betting plan of attack. Can’t find a best roughie anywhere tonight either. RESULTS: Rain stays off till the last few races and track comes up a fairly firm GOOD(3). Definitely best ground is along the rails and the on pacers tend to win or figure in most of the finishes. Tips go along pretty well, we squeeze a small profit in the Betting Portfolio and some nice quinellas in the selections. The form summary for the main race is spot on the money - finding the quinella and also predicting how the race would be run. BEST BET: Race 7: 3-OASIS BLOOM $10 WIN X Been waiting for this one to get into the right race this time in and she looks ready to ping tonight. Massive mare whose best form is ridden rolling on the speed. Fitter for the 3 runs in and getting out to a staying trip for the first time, which is likely to be suitable. Good chance on pacers will be suited tonight, there isn’t a huge amount of speed in this so she should get a pretty good run up front. Just looks ready to step up this spring and happy to back her straight out at around $4.50. RESULTS: Gets into perfect on pace position, but then gets stuck racing tight inside one from about the 600M. Slightly disappointing, but she is a big thing and suspect she needs running room. May not run the trip though? BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 5-COSMIC CAUSEWAY $5 EW X QUINELLA: Race 3: 5-COSMIC CAUSEWAY, 6-SPACECRAFT x $2 X QUINELLA: Race 3: 5-COSMIC CAUSEWAY, 2-UNDER THE EIFFEL x $2 X QUINELLA: Race 3: 5-COSMIC CAUSEWAY, 1-LORD OF BRAZIL x $2 X / 3rd 1-LORD OF BRAZIL W=$6.90 Super consistent type with a really good win/place strike rate and genuine wet track form if the rain comes. Eye catching run finishing hard late 1st up at Flemington, when dropped back from a wide barrier, but normal racing pattern is to sit on the speed and should race a lot closer tonight from a good barrier. Looks a solid each way bet at around $6. Back each way and take some quinellas as more than likely this one will be in the finish – with the (6) who has been racing great and loves leading at MV, but chances will depend on when the rain comes, the (2) who has race fitness on these, and the ultra consistent (1). RESULTS: Drops out badly and obviously has an issue - normally very consistent horse. BEST WIN: Race 6: 6-LATE CHARGE, 2-DIVINE CALLING $5 WIN 1st 2-DIVINE CALLING W=$3.30 = 3.30 x 5 = $16.50 Think there are two main chances in the Bill Stutt Stakes, the (6) and the (2). The (6) was an eye catching run last start at Flemington, absolutely flying home late and should have a fair bit of improvement to come as that was coming off a short let up. Looks one on the up as the distances increase and likely to be a major 3YO player this spring. Handles it wet, question mark might be how far he gets back and if they are running on OK. Which makes the main danger the (2) who was impressive leading and winning here last start and is likely to do the same again here and there doesn’t seem to be that much pressure up front in this. Jockey was full of praise for this one last start so he might go on with it. Happy to back both of these straight out at around $6.00 and $4.60. RESULTS: Starts a little skinny but gets there - just - and has to survive a protest. Keep following the other one 6-LATE CHARGE still think there is a fair bit of improvement to come. QUINELLA: Race 8: 1-BUFFERING, 10-SAMAREADY x $3 2nd 1-BUFFERING W=$3.40, 1st 10-SAMAREADY W=$6.80 Quinella = $13.30 x 3 = $39.90 QUINELLA: Race 8: 1-BUFFERING, 4-MOMENT OF CHANGE x $3 2nd 1-BUFFERING W=$3.40 Very even field in the feature last race of the day and really any of a number of horses could win. Think tactics are going to be vital here, want to be on something that is going to get a clear run into the race at the right time, swooping on the turn – the most likely candidates there are the (10) and (4). Safest way to bet might be to take quinellas with the perpetual Group 1 bridesmaid the (1) who will race on speed and is always thereabouts in these races, but again just a matter if they get softened up in front and one of the others swoops late. RESULTS: Spot on the money here - the winner gets the perfect stalk on the speed and whooshes to a very impressive victory. Poor old 1-BUFFERING racks up another Group 1 placing, but that was the whole reasoning behind the bet. TRIFECTA: Race 4: 1-MIRACLES OF LIFE, 4-THUMP, 3-METASTASIO boxed x 50 cents = $3. 1st 4-THUMP W=$5.30, 2nd 1-MIRACLES OF LIFE W=$2.30, X Not often we take box trifectas, but think we have a decent chance of snaring this one. The (1) is the Autumn star who had her colours lowered 1st up, but there were plenty of excuses and likely to start very well supported again. The (4) is a genuine threat though, drawn rails and likely leader here – only issue is there is a stack of speed in this so think they are going to run along pretty quickly. Which means you may want to watch out for the (3) coming home hard late, assume they will let her sit off them from an outside draw in clear running and this race might get set up for her – and she looks over the odds at around $10. Suspect these three will fight the race out and let’s see if there is any value in the trifecta. RESULTS: The winner gets the rails and causes a minor, but not unsurprising upset. Unlucky not to land this trifecta with the 3-METASTASIO being held up for runs before finishing really hard late to finish 5th LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 6-UNDER THE LOUVRE at around $4.40 12th W=$9.00 Has some ability and 1st up into this off a short lay off. Does drop a long way back though, and that can be tricky in these MV 1000M and 1200M sprints as often something will jump and kick off the bend. Last start failure was put down to a wet track and likely to hit a wet track here again tonight. Will probably be running on late, but suspect something on speed with pinch a break here and it will be too late to win. RESULTS: Drifts badly from the odds when we sent out the tips and never likely. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA: Race 7: 2,3 / 1,2,3,11 / 1,2,3,5,7,10,11,12 x $5 = 13.88% X Let’s try and snare the trifecta in the JRA Cup. The main two chances look to be the on pacers the (3) and (2), and there doesn’t look to be a lot of speed here. Main dangers are the (1) with WFA form and the (11) who looks good odds off a pretty good Dato Tan run. These four should fight out the finish, so take them for 2nd, and go wide for 3rd and hope something gets into the placings at odds. In a fairly even betting field the trifecta should pay OK. RESULTS: Never gets warm. SPENT: $50 RETURN: $56.40 NET: $+6.40 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 7-HUCKLEBUCK, 12-LION OF BELFORT, 8-NITE ROCKER Race 2: 2-AEROBATICS, 8-ANGELS BEACH, 7-FORMIDABLE Race 3: 5-COSMIC CAUSEWAY, 6-SPACECRAFT, 2-UNDER THE EIFFEL Race 4: 1-MIRACLES OF LIFE, 4-THUMP, 3-METASTASIO Race 5: 4-EIGHT BILLS, 3-DAY PROCEDURE, 9-SUCH HOPE Race 6: 6-LATE CHARGE, 2-DIVINE CALLING, 8-CLUSTER Race 7: 3-OASIS BLOOM, 2-LIGHTINTHENITE, 11-HORNET’S NEST Race 8: 10-SAMAREADY, 1-BUFFERING, 4-MOMENT OF CHANGE |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-HUCKLEBUCK 3rd W=$3.40 12-LION OF BELFORT 1st W=$4.40 8-NITE ROCKER 2nd 2nd W=$13.20 Quinella: $31.20 Trifecta: $241.80 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-AEROBATICS SCR 8-ANGELS BEACH 7-FORMIDABLE 2nd W=$13.50 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-COSMIC CAUSEWAY 6-SPACECRAFT 2-UNDER THE EIFFEL |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-MIRACLES OF LIFE 2nd W=$2.30 4-THUMP 1st W=$5.30 3-METASTASIO Quinella: $5.40 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-EIGHT BILLS 3-DAY PROCEDURE 2nd W=$2.50 9-SUCH HOPE |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-LATE CHARGE 2-DIVINE CALLING 1st W=$3.30 8-CLUSTER 3rd W=$6.60 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-OASIS BLOOM 2-LIGHTINTHENITE 11-HORNET’S NEST |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-SAMAREADY 1st W=$6.80 1-BUFFERING 2nd W=$3.40 4-MOMENT OF CHANGE Quinella: $13.30 |
| RACE 8: MOIR STAKES GROUP 1 1200M WFA |
| Tips: 10-SAMAREADY 1st W=$6.80 1-BUFFERING 2nd W=$3.40 4-MOMENT OF CHANGE Quinella: $13.30 |
| Others: 3, 5 Pace: GENUINE Leaders: 1-BUFFERING, 7-LE BONSIR, 9-SNITZERLAND Handy: 8-CAPTAIN FANCYPANTZ , 10-SAMAREADY Back: 2-EPAULETTE, 3-BEL SPRINTER, 5-GENERAL TRUCE, 6-CONSERVATORIUM Chances: 1-BUFFERING is as honest as they come and is proven at this level, well close to proven, having racked up an utterly amazing 9 Group 1 placings – and there are also a few Group 1 fourths floating around as well. Been in the finish in pretty much every feature sprint race through VIC/NSW/QLD and put in some mighty runs, still love that Newmarket when he and HAY LIST fought out the finish. 1st up into this and he won this race last year 1st up. Actually effectively ran in this race in 2011 too, except it was the Manikato Stakes at this meeting, which was Group 1 over 1200M. Of course, that race was then moved, to be replaced by the Moir Stakes tonight, Group1, over 1200M. Ummm…right.. Anyway, his fresh form is excellent, he handles it wet and has a recent barrier trial win to his name. Lots of ticks and really suited under this weight scale as a proven WFA Group 1 sprinter. Normally jumps and runs and being drawn out is a big plus to get a clear run around the tight MV course. Always in the finish and will be again. Chance. 2nd W=$3.40 3-BEL SPRINTER is a damn good horse and big plus is that he can race on the speed or drop back and come with one of the best finishing bursts in the business. Prefer the finishing bursts actually – they are seriously exciting. Does tend to be ridden cold these days. 1st up into this and won the Galaxy 1st up last time in with one of those withering bursts. Had a trial to get him ready for this and trial winner was impressive winning last week at Caulfield. Won 5 from 5 fresh. Perfect record. Yet to strike a wet track though is going to be a bit of a worry, as is the barrier 1 – drop back horse from barrier 1 in a MV night meeting with the rail out on a wet track is seriously asking for trouble. He has the pizzazz to pull it off though, so can’t totally write him off, just a few niggling concerns. Chance. 5-GENERAL TRUCE is a super consistent MV specialist who handles all types of going and is just about always in the finish in whatever he contests. Placed an very impressive 7 times from 9 starts here and definitely handles it wet. Fitter for the 2 runs in which have both been good and largely identical, coming home hard off the bend in MV 1000M races – he does look like he is looking for the 1200M here. Yet to win in 9 starts over 1200M is a worry though – especially in this at Group 1 level. Quite a few of those have been < 0.5L defeats though so the stats might be a little misleading. Like that he is drawn out to get a clear crack at them. Rough chance. 10-SAMAREADY is a top class sprinting mare who returned from a long, long injury lay off with an impressive 1st up win, that defied bit of a betting drift from a stable who were downplaying her chances. Had the speed on last start and like the way she peeled off and went straight past the leader (even if we were on it for a nice collect). Flopped in only wet track run, so a genuine wet and sloppy track here tonight might be an issue. Solid 1200M class sprinter, drawn to get a clear crack at them. Maybe just keep an eye on the market here. Might want to position not too far off the speed here in a small field with quite a few backmarkers – but she settled fairly handy last start. Her position in running here is going to be crucial – settle slightly forward and think she is going to be hard to beat. Chance. 1st W=$6.80 4-MOMENT OF CHANGE is a class sprinter who does have a tendency to start well supported and has been ever since that 10L winning debut as a 3YO. Just looking back can see 4 times now he has been beaten as a short priced $2.50 or so favourite – including 3 of his last 4 starts. Has a huge reputation and very competitive at the highest level, but never starts at any sort of value. Always looked to be trouble when he drew barrier 1 here last start over 1000M – but he got out in plenty of time, but couldn’t run down one that had got a flyer kick off the bend. The 1200M here suits much better and the barrier (8) is a big plus – barriers are really important in this MV sprints. Probably would want to lob handyish and wide from the barrier and get a clear crack at them. Unknown on wet ground, Definite chance – and we normally tend to avoid this one vigorously as he never represents value, but tonight you might actually get good odds so goes in as a chance. Chance. 4th W=$10.50 Place: 2-EPAULETTE is a smart, lightly raced, Darley sprinter who has won more Group 1 sprints than the (1). Another who has been left in BLACK CAVIAR’s wake but now has the opportunity to step up and take the vacant title of best sprinter in the land. Actually ran a really nice race fresh last time against B.C. in the T.J.Smith, and must be rapt that arch 3YO rivals ALL TOO HARD and PIERRO have both moved onto stud duties. Notched up a win in an open age Group 1 during the QLD winter as a 3YO so has plenty of upside as a 4YO. 1200M form and 1st up form is good. Yet to strike a wet track though and there is a pretty good chance this track is going to come up pretty soggy. Does tend to drop back in his races too, and think that is a big negative around MV 1200M in a smallish field of sprinters, even if the speed is on. Actually happy to go around him tonight. Place only. 9-SNITZERLAND is another very smart one resuming 1st up into this, coming off a barrier trial win. Likes to go forward which is a big plus as a lot of these drop back and run on. Should be a bit of pressure up front though from the (1) and (7) and the (1) has been known to pressure horses into submission by sitting outside them which might happen here. Another who is largely unknown on wet tracks. Will be in this for a long way, but suspect might get swooped by one coming off the bend here. Prefer place. Sacking: 6-CONSERVATORIUM is a sprinter miler 1st up into this. Solid 1200M record and does handle it wet. 1st up form isn’t the best, usually takes a run or two to find form but is pretty reliable when right. Might just drop back a little here first up and you would think these are going to be too good for him. Passing. 7-LE BONSIR is flying at the moment and has the big plus of being race fit, on pace, MV specialist against a lot of drop back 1st uppers – and that is a very big plus. Really stepped up a notch last start when she tracked a handy sprinter – and whooshed past her in the straight in a very easy win. 3 times winner the MV 1200M and a straight out track specialist. Not that much speed in this race either, just the (1) likely to contest the front with him, and crucially this one is going to get the rails. The (1) is likely to pressure him all the way up front though. Unknown on wet ground, and it does look like he needs it genuinely firm. Good winning strike rate and is on the up. Realistically not suited here at WFA when has only been carrying medium weights in handicaps and suspect won’t be far off them tonight, but not a winning chance. Passing. 3rd W=$20.40 8-CAPTAIN FANCYPANTZ has a really cool Group 1 sort of name, but is jumping massively in class here. Has been going along OK in 1200M to 1400M races without really doing anything outstanding, though his best form does seem to be over this trip. Largely unknown on wet ground. Looks outclassed there though. No Summary: Pretty interesting sprint race, especially now with BLACK CAVAIR graciously retired all these have a chance to step up and take the title of best and fairest sprinter in the land. Very tricky race to line up too, so keep an eye on the betting market, but basically you have a swag of 1st up Group 1 sprinters and hard to know which one is going to ping tonight. Tactics are going to be crucial here, 1000M and 1200M sprints around MV are very dodgy, especially if the rail is out, and especially at night meetings – and then throw in the wet track which most of these are unknown on. You really don’t want to get stuck inside runners on the rails in a tight turning sprint field where they are not going to budge to give you room for a run. The speed here looks quite genuine – with the 9-SNITZERLAND leading from the 1-BUFFERING pressuring her on the outside and the 7-LE BONSIR sitting just behind them. Think tactically you just want to be on the one that sits just off these, but out wide in clear running to make their run at the right time on the turn. So happy to go 10-SAMAREADY on top who looks the most likely candidate to get that run – as long as the track doesn’t get too wet, from the 1-BUFFERING kicking on, and for once we are going to push for the 4-MOMENT OF CHANGE who will actually start decent odds for once and should get the right run into this race. One to risk: 2-EPAULETTE 7th W=$6.00 Roughie: 5-GENERAL TRUCE The Key: Wet tracker, on pace, clear run from middle barrier. RESULTS: Sum the race up perfectly here, the winner and top pick gets the perfect sit just off the speed and whooshes off the bend for a very impressive victory. Poor old 1-BUFFERING racks up another Group 1 placing. 2-EPAULETTE and 3-BEL SPRINTER perform below expectations - but we did knock their chances in the detailed form summary. |
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