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| MOONEE VALLEY: MOIR STAKES - 26th September 2014 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 3M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Note that this meeting is on Friday night 26th September. For some reason it always seems to rain around the time of this meeting, so if you are a farmer it would definitely be a great time to plant your crops. Drizzle and rain leading into Friday and this track should retain some give with continual drizzle throughout the day. Rail goes out to 3M here, and generally the further the rail goes out at MV the more you want to be on the leaders. Night meetings just tend to favour leaders regardless. As always be wary of those drawn inside barriers who like to drop back in the field, cause that gap never opens on the home turn when you are on them – only when you don’t want them to get out. Multiple acceptors across Friday/Saturday/Sunday, but most of them seem to be deserting this meeting which has come up very light on. Stark contrast between the 6 horse fields and even money favourites of Moonee Valley and the capacity fields and $6 the field runners we have at Caulfield on Sunday. Really ordinary night for a bet, there is no value in any of these fields and you would think most of the trifectas are going to struggle to make double figures even. So pretty much all win bets, not much point in betting each way. RESULTS: Traditional Friday night Moonee Valley racing in that pretty much every winner either leads or sits behind the leader on the fence and it is very difficult to run on and get into the finish. Aided by the small fields we put in a huge tipping performance, finding every winner in the selections, but just couldn't quite squeeze a profit in the Betting Portfolio despite showing much promise. BEST BET: Race 6: 5-MOURINHO $10 WIN 3rd W=$5.30 QUINELLA: Race 6: 5-MOURINHO#1, 4, 11 x $6 = 200% 3rd 5-MOURINHO W=$5.30, 1st 1-THE CLEANER W=$3.50 This is one of the few races tonight with any size or any sort of spread in the betting. This one has been going along extremely well and just seems to love MV. Perfect on speed sit 1st up when we tipped him and he won at good odds, and then plenty to like about the 2nd up effort when the kept grinding away and was closing on the tear away leader the (1) on the line. Only beaten less than 1 length last start, was making ground on the line, and meets the winner 2.5 kgs better off so think the $5 on offer is excellent odds. 4 times winner this track, 3 times this track and distance and winner of this race last year and just seems to be racing in career best form. Wide barrier but should go forward and sit just off the speed and looks the one to beat here. Back him straight out and take quinellas with the two leaders the (1) and the (4) and the 11-SIGNOFF who we just worry may get left a little flat footed around a leader dominated MV 2000M. RESULTS: Gets the perfect trail and just held up for a run nearing the turn, but out in plenty of time and ground away behind the winner, but just not quite good enough. Still think he is going really well and keep following him. The well supported 11-SIGNOFF disappoints and actually preferred him in the Caulfield race on Sunday and didn't include him in the tips for tonight. BEST WIN: Race 2: 1-DEAR DEMI $7 WIN 1st W=$3.70 = $25.90 Short priced favourite in this race, the very smart , 2-COMMANDING JEWEL who looks the one to beat, but this one is always consistent, is fitter for the 2 runs in and was closing on her on the line last start. Was a really good run and she seems to have come back in peak form. Extra distance suits and as long as the (4) or (7) sets a decent tempo in front in a small field and it doesn’t turn into a sit and sprint think she is a chance of beating the favourite here and happy to have something the win at around $4. RESULTS: Brave tipping here and we were keen to take on the favourite and this super consistent mare didn't let us down. She is going really well this time in and keep following her. BEST WIN: Race 8: 6-EXIMUS $7 WIN X Really close to no form at all in the last race and think this one should be a clear cut favourite, instead we are currently getting around $4.20. Lots of drop back, out of form, 1st up horses and this is about the only one with race fitness and form on his side. Loomed like the winner last start, but the winner had a soft lead and out sprinted him to the line. Might want to go forward here in a race with very little speed that all but looks the one to beat. RESULTS: Ridden forward and looms on the turn, but the tempo was quite solid and just struggles a bit past 1400M. Disappointing. BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 6-ZEBULON $5 EW X There are three stand out chances in the Bill Stutt Stakes, but we like this one, and assuming he is going to run tonight and not Sunday at Caulfield. Yet to miss the place in 4 starts and really good effort 1st up at Flemington when he missed the start and was making good ground late. Trick here might be from the inside barrier if they can go forward tonight? Has a lot of improvement to come and might be able to upstage his two more fancied rivals tonight, especially if he settles on speed. Each way at around $4.80. RESULTS: Never a factor, but a very messy race with a lot wanting to go forward to take advantage of the track bias, so forgive the run and give him another chance. BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 8-TAHNI DANCER $2 WIN, $3 PLACE 2nd W=$15.00, P=$2.90 = $8.70 Very few horses at any sort of odds tonight so hard to find a value runner. This one is fitter for the 2 runs in and was good here 1st up and might be suited if the two leaders set it up for something running on late. Realistically one of the two class leaders the (1) or (3) probably wins this, so just a little something the win and more the place at around $21. RESULTS: Huge run here by our roughie, coming from well back off a good speed to run 2nd to one of the two class runners. LAY OF THE DAY: None this week. Too many short priced favourites and aren’t game to take them on in small fields. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. Race 8: TRIFECTA: 6-EXIMUS / 5, 9,10 / 5,7, 8, 9,10,12 x $5 = 33.33% X / 1st 9-ANOTHER PRELATE 1st W=$8.90 / X Probably our only chance of a decent collect tonight is to land a trifecta for a good percentage in one of the few races with more than five runners. Really like our top pick 6-EXIMUS in the last, and really pretty much anything can run a place there, but maybe try to find those that might sit on speed from good barriers, or just throw anything in at odds really, we need to make the trifecta pay somehow. RESULTS: Looms but disappointing, but a very gettable $900 trifecta with the 2nd pick winning and the leader running 2nd. SPENT: $50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 5-TUDOR, 2-EASY DRAMA, 1-DEIHEROS Race 2: 1-DEAR DEMI, 2-COMMANDING JEWEL, 7-SOLICIT Race 3: 3-ANGELS BEACH, 4-LET’S ROCK’N’ROLL, 5-SOLSAY Race 4: 2-LANKAN RUPEE, 1-BUFFERING, 3-REBEL DANE Race 5: 3-TAWTEEN, 8-TAHNI DANCER, 1-ELOPING Race 6: 5-MOURINHO, 1-THE CLEANER, 4-MR O’CEIRIN Race 7: 6-ZEBULON, 3-CHIVALRY, 1-ALMALAD Race 8: 6-EXIMUS, 9-ANOTHER PRELATE, 10-LORD WIMBLE |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-TUDOR 1st W=$8.30 2-EASY DRAMA 1-DEIHEROS |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-DEAR DEMI 1st W=$3.70 *** Best Win Bet of the Night *** 2-COMMANDING JEWEL 2nd W=$1.70 7-SOLICIT 3rd W=$4.10 Quinella: $7.20 Trifecta: $19.80 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-ANGELS BEACH 4-LET’S ROCK’N’ROLL 5-SOLSAY 1st W=$4.90 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-LANKAN RUPEE 2nd W=$1.40 1-BUFFERING 1st W=$5.00 3-REBEL DANE 3rd W=$7.60 Quinella: $2.40 Trifecta: $17.80 Early Quaddie: $950.90 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-TAWTEEN 3rd W=$2.00 8-TAHNI DANCER 2nd W=$15.40 1-ELOPING 1st W=$3.90 Quinella: $29.00 Trifecta: $81.40 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-MOURINHO 3rd W=$5.30 1-THE CLEANER 1st W=$3.50 4-MR O’CEIRIN |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-ZEBULON 3-CHIVALRY 1-ALMALAD 1st W=$2.90 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-EXIMUS 9-ANOTHER PRELATE 1st W=$8.90 10-LORD WIMBLE Quaddie: $623.90 Big Six: $25,816.10 *** All Winners in the Selections, including the $950 early quaddie, the $623 quaddie, and the $25,816 Big Six *** |
| RACE 4: MOIR STAKES 1200M WFA GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 2-LANKAN RUPEE 2nd W=$1.40 1-BUFFERING 1st W=$5.00 3-REBEL DANE 3rd W=$7.60 Quinella: $2.40 Trifecta: $17.80 |
| Others: Pace: LEADER DICTATES Leaders: 1-BUFFERING Handy: 2-LANKAN RUPEE, 5-ANGELIC LIGHT Back: 3-REBEL DANE, 4-UNPRETENTIOUS Chances: 1-BUFFERING has been around for ever and needs no introduction, the tough gusty front running sprinter who was famous for being a Group 1 bridesmaid till he won the Manikato here last year and then threw in a few more Group 1 wins whilst he was on a roll. Has been consistently at the top of his game for a few seasons now. Was a beaten favourite in this race last year. Handles all track conditions, but a little big of give in the ground won’t hurt. Has only met the favourite the (2) once before in the T.J Smith in the Autumn, and was well held, but it is also worth noting that he was coming off this worse effort, a 7th in a long time. The (2) led that day, and this one stalked him, but you would think the positions will be reversed here and this one can fly the gates on his day. In a small field, on a tight MV track with the rail out which is likely to favour on pacers, and leading, he is always going to be a chance of an upset. Chance. 1st W=$5.00 2-LANKAN RUPEE is the break out super star of sprinting. Had ability, but nothing out of the ordinary, but was obviously been held back by items between his legs, and once they were gone he suddenly went on an upward spiral that took him right to the very top. Totally dominant throughout the spring and autumn, on all track conditions and in tough handicaps with big fields which are always hard to win regardless, yet alone string together a series of tear away wins. Unbackable favourite 1st up at $1.22 over the 1000M here, flew the gates, sat 2nd on a fast speed, went for home around the turn but the (5) trailed him and had his measure. Worth noting he has only been beaten twice in his last 9 starts, and both times those defeats were at MV. 2nd up and up 200M, and has drawn inside the (1), but think that one might ping the gates and cross him tonight, which will give him a perfect trail. Definitely the one to beat, slight concern he got beaten 1st up and got a suspicion he might not be as dominant this time in, it is nearly impossible to stay that dominant year after year so he might be beatable this campaign. One to beat, but don’t think he is unbeatable. 2nd W=$1.40 Place: 3-REBEL DANE is a Group 1 sprinter who will be suited by the small field here as he does like to sit off them and needs a clear run into the race. Wasn’t beaten far at all in the Manikato here last year, but he will need them to be running on OK and he is going to be giving two stand out sprinters in the (1) and (2) a head start here around MV. He is capable enough on his day and if they are running on OK a rough blow out chance, but would need everything to go right. Place. 3rd W=$7.60 5-ANGELIC LIGHT caused the boil over here last start when got the perfect sit behind the two leaders and pulled out to go past them. Mare with plenty of ability and was Group placed before long injury lay off. Seems to have come back better than ever, super effort 1st up here off close to a 2 year break when only just missed and you would think still has more improvement to come. Yet to miss a place at MV. Yet to miss a place a the 1200M. Set up again to slot in behind the two leaders here and get a perfect trail into the race, and not impossible that she could cause the upset again. Rough. 4th W=$8.50 Sacking: 4-UNPRETENTIOUS has always had some ability, but hasn’t quite gone on from his early potential and especially that super impressive straight track win in Cup Week 2012. He just seems to have floundered a little when he has gone up to the top level. Not beaten far at all here in the William Reid in the Autumn, but he is likely to be run off his feet against the two on pacers here and giving them too big a start coming around the turn. No Summary: Mainly a watch and look race and the feature race has been dropped out of the quaddie legs due to the small field. How embarrassing. A lot is going to come down to tactics here, will 1-BUFFERING fly the gates like he often can and cross and lead? Or will 2-LANKAN RUPEE push up inside him? If the 1-BUFFERING does lead here, in a small field with not much pressure he is going to be hard to run down and pretty sure that the 2-LANKAN RUPEE may not be as dominant this preparation. It is pretty hard to keep winning by 4-5 lengths every start, year after year, unless your initials are B.C. So 2-LANKAN RUPEE definitely the one to beat, especially if he gets the perfect sit, but 1-BUFFERING quite capable of leading and pinching this and the favourite is beatable here. 3-REBEL DANE running home late for 3rd, but really looks a match race in two to us. One to risk: - Roughie: 5-ANGELIC LIGHT The Key: Will 2-LANKAN RUPEE continue to be dominant, or will he be more vulnerable this preparation? RESULTS: Small field and we sum up this race pretty well. The World's Best Sprinter* has a disclaimer, he is the best in the world excluding Moonee Valley! It is just hard for horses to be totally dominant year after year, he is still an outstanding sprinter, just may not be as dominant this time in. If you read between the lines of the form preview we actually wanted to tip 1-BUFFERING on top, but totally and utterly wussed it - and deserve to be beaten up on the playground accordingly |
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