|MOONEE VALLEY : MOIR STAKES - 27th September 2019|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
There is a little bit of rain forecast, and generally cloudy and windy for the opening of the night racing season. The rail remains in the TRUE position from last meeting, which normally means they can run on and win OK and the blustering weather should assist. Just be warned though that this night racing season opener just about always favours those on speed. Especially in the JRA Cup, where we reckon the leader just about always wins with THE TAJ MAHAL (2018), JON SNOW (2017), ESCADO (2015), THE CLEANER (2014), MOURINHO (2013) all leading or settling very close to the speed in the last 10 years. The leader this year is probably the 9-SULLY, so just listen out for riding tactics if they are going forward today. Itís also a shame to see the Stutt Stakes relegated to Race 2 on the program, we quite like having a bet in that race every year.
In the feature Moir Stakes, they often go super fast in these feature MV sprints and the winner is invariably the one who gets the lucky break and the right run on the turn. Speed here looks super fast again, and not sure the 5-NATURE STRIP will able to hold the lead from barrier (1) with the likes of 1-BALL OF MUSCLE, 4-FAATINAH, 10-ASSERTIVE APPROACH going forward. That should set the race up for the likes of something like the 11-SUNLIGHT sitting in clear space on speed, if she gets back to her best form she should be hard to beat here. Wary of the Sydney visitor 1st up here the 7-TACTICAL ADVANTAGE, good fresh form, good distance stats, had two barrier trials in and might be ready to do something tonight if they burn along in front and gets the right run on the turn. Lets put the 9-BONS AWAY in for third as the speed on here will suit, is fit and in form and really deserves to win a feature race like this. Wouldnít even rule out roughies like the under rated 13-WINTER BRIDE to run a race 1st up. These feature MV sprints are always so tricky and it just about always comes down to luck in running so donít be scared to go a bit outside the betting market for a result.
This is an OK betting program, usually there isnít much depth to these fields but there are a couple at each way odds we like tonight, especially if the racing pattern favours those on speed.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 5-SILENT ROAR $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 5-SILENT ROAR#3,6,9,10 x $4 = 100%
This one got the money for us last start and generally she keeps her form when she finds it and might run a race again tonight. Normally you want to stick with the proven Group horses in these races, but she is fit and in form, with good career stats, and most importantly she should roll to the lead here without too much pressure. Back each way at a very generous $13 and as she should be in the finish, anchor in the quinella with the proven class performer the 3-MISS SISKA, the other on pacer the 10-TIDES and the two scratched from a weaker race at Caulfield on Sunday for this, the 9-OCEANEX and the 6-SOMETHING SILVER.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 10-EXPERIMENTATION $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 10-EXPERIMENTATION#2,3,6,9 x $2 = 50%
Normally there is a stack of speed in these MV Night 955M races, but not sure about this event. Think the 10-EXPERIMENTATION can lead here from an inside barrier and might be hard to run down. He is in winning form and has raced well here before. Each way at around $8, and anchor the quinella with the Sydney spruik visitor the 9-GOD OF THUNDER, the value on pace runner 6-ALUF, the MV specialist the 2-MAKAHU BOY and the classy 3-HUMMA HUMMA who has drawn wide and might drop back.
QUINELLA: Race 1: 1-KING OF HASTINGS, 3-BARCALI x $4
First race, small field, set weights scale should favour those at the top of the weights. The 1-KING OF HASTINGS was tough leading last start and should get a good on speed sit here and prove too classy. The main danger is the 3-BARCALI who was good on speed in the same race, and should be fitter for that run. Simple quinella on them to fight out the finish as the top pick is a bit short to back straight out at around $2.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 7-NIEDORP $2 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 4-ABSOLUTE FLIRT, 5-VILLAMI, 7-NIEDORP boxed x $3 = 100%
On a night with not much in the way of roughies this might be the best option for a value runner. Fitter for the 2 runs in, solid 1200M form and should go forward here from a good barrier. Question is how much pressure there is up front, with a few other possible leaders like the 5-VILLAMI and 11-EVENING SLIPPERS. Quite liked the effort down the straight last start, led and kicked and was just swamped late and suspect she is going to run a race tonight at around $16. Slightly concerned about the inside barrier for the favourite the 1-EXHILARATES and notice she has been a bit easy in the betting, so also box up the selections in a quinella which should pay OK if the favourite gets into trouble.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 7-TACTICAL ADVANTAGE $2 EW
The feature MV sprints always favour the horse that gets the lucky split, just you canít work out which that one is going to be till after the race. Keep on eye on the betting on this one, drawn a nice middle barrier, good career stats, good 1st up stats, strong finisher and might be primed to do something tonight. Something each way at around $26.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 7-WORKING FROM HOME $3 EW
Good front runner when finds form and scratched from Caulfield Sunday for a race that has fallen away in quality here and looks very winnable. Fitter for the 2 runs in, has drawn wide, but has a pretty quick start so might be able to cross and lead here. Only other leader is the 14-LAGERFIELD which has to come across as well anyway. If she jumps and leads and the racing pattern is favouring those on speed she might be hard to run down at around $20 which looks generous odds in an ordinary race.
LAY OF THE DAY : Race 7: 5-NATURE STRIP at around $3.20
Guess you are either a believer or not. We have had a pretty good record so far of working out when to jump on and when to jump off. Barrier 1 is the question tonight, if he blows the start and ends up back on the rails on the inside it just doesnít suit his running style, if he jumps and goes aggressively to the lead think he gets pressured by plenty of speed outside. Bottom line is he was a $1,80 favourite and flopped in this race last year under similar conditions, coming off a good win, and he is probably coming off a worse run this time in so have to go around him just based on that. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into enough to get a Grand Final ticket.
QUINELLA: RACE 7: 7,8,9,11,13 x $5 boxed = 50%
If the favourite flops in the feature race it really opens the race up and these MV sprints always come down to who gets that all important luck split in running. The 11-SUNLIGHT will get a good run on speed in clear running, and the 7-TACTICAL ADVANTAGE, 8-BONS AWAY are the best of the runners on bursting through the field. Respect for super roughie the under rated 13-WINTER BRIDE, and lets throw in the 9-EDUARDO as the other on pacer, not sure inside barrier suits him as a big striding horse though. Aim for a value quinella away from the obvious picks.
Race 1: 1-KING OF HASTINGS, 3-BARCALI, 2-ZOUSHACK
Race 2: 5-THE HOLY ONE, 1-POWER SCHEME, 7-VEGAS KNIGHT
Race 3: 5-SILENT ROAR, 3-MISS SISKA, 10-TIDES
Race 4: 10-EXPERIMENTATION, 9-GOD OF THUNDER, 6-ALUF
Race 5: 4-ABSOLUTE FLIRT, 5-VILLAMI, 7-NIEDORP
Race 6: 6-KENTUCKY BREEZE, 9-SULLY, 8-MOSH MUSIC.
Race 7: 11-SUNLIGHT, 7-TACTICAL ADVANTAGE, 8-BONS AWAY
Race 8: 7-WORKING FROM HOME, 14-LAGERFELD, 13-COLUMBIA