|MOONEE VALLEY: MOIR STAKES Ė 25th September 2020|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: RAIN - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Major rain event coming through Friday afternoon with rain continuing into Friday night so expect pretty squalid conditions and a genuine wet track, and they should be able to run on and win out wide. Note the early 5pm starting time for MV night meetings to make sure we are all at home and safely in bed by the 9pm curfew reading the form guide for Saturday and dreaming of large quaddie collects.
In the feature Moir Stakes, the weather is going to be a major factor, and everywhere the 3-JUNGLE EDGE goes he seems to take the weather with him. The flying 7-PIPPIE should cross and speed to the lead here, but the 9-FABERGINO will be putting the pressure on, leaving the 6-BELLA VELLA stuck on the rails, with the old timers 3-JUNGLE EDGE and 4-ASHLOR settling behind and the 2-HEY DOC and 8-DIAMOND EFFORT next pair in the run.
Going quickly through the field, the 1-TREKKING is probably a little under rated, which is not something you say very often about a horse in the blue, but Stradbroke winner, Goodwood winner and Everest place getter and still no hype. Has had the benefit of a recent trial and good career win strike rate. The 1000M around MV is the question mark with him, he kicked off spring in this race last year and finished 8th when well in the market and can just see him dropping back from an inside barrier over the 1000M and struggling to get into the race. The 2-HEY DOC has excellent track stats and keeps surprising, winning the Manikato here 3 years ago and surprising them in the Winterbottom. He is probably a query on a genuinely wet track and is likely to be trapped out wide here from an outside barrier and may need the run. The 3-JUNGLE EDGE is currently $10 and will shorten one point for every one mm of rain that falls. Loves tough, slogging conditions and that is what we should get here. Worth noting he has had a let up and all his best recent runs have been fresh so rates a genuine chance here and drawn to sit second in clear running here and may get to the better going. The 4-ASHLOR is a MV specialist who looked to have the race won here last start before the winner really lunged on the line. Handles it wet, will sit handy, tough as, he seems well over the odds in this race at $46 and is a genuine rough chance. The 5-BOLD STAR was really good first up down the straight when he flashed home late, and then pretty plain last start though we can probably forgive one ordinary run. Excellent 1000M stats having won 5 from 7, just a little concerned dropping back 1200M to 1000M, around MV, drawn outside barrier he is going to end up right at the back of the field here. Chance if they are running on winning out wide, and think the odds are decent for a horse of his ability, but only a rough chance at best. The 6-BELLA VELLA is a track and distance specialist, and she showed serious determination to hit the line and win here last start. Barrier 1 is an awkward draw here especially as the 7-PIPPIE probably crosses and leads as there will be a few going forward and not much room for a run. She is fit and in form though and at her favourite track and distance and jockey Kah is in flying form so would be reluctant to take them on and the leader may come off the rails in the straight.
The 7-PIPPIE is a bit of an enigma and can either run them off their feet and win dancing on air, or start a short priced favourite and be beaten on the turn. Unbeaten 1st up, and most likely set for this race. Wet track form seems to be OK, but suspect she is better on top of the ground. Watch the market on this one, but a lot will depend on the racing pattern. If it is a MV night meeting leaders track she probably jumps and wins, but suspect the rain will cause the rails to be off and with a bit of pressure up front think that will see her wobble on the turn and let them swoop or come through on the inside. The 8-DIAMOND EFFORT has been showing so much promise for a few campaigns now and has finally hit the feature races. Donít think the wet track is an issue and she should be able to track just behind the speed and burst through on the turn, and she has a serious turn of foot and looks a very strong chance in this. The 9-FABERGINO is the unknown quantity here, impressive win down the Flemington straight a few months back, and will go forward here and sit in clear running outside the leader. But is largely unknown on wet going, and never been around MV so think the $4 on offer is rather skinny and mainly based on hype rather than form. The 10-BROOKLYN HUSTLE will appreciate the fast speed here, and is fitter for the 2 runs in, wet track the unknown and likely to drop well back in the run here, but some chance if the racing pattern favours those running on. The 3YO 11-HANSEATIC is drawn a nice middle barrier with the light weight to loop them into the race, although the wet track is an unknown. Was probably just OK 1st up, but wasnít bad enough to drop off today and should have further improvement to come. The 13-BELLA NIPOTINA is a consistent filly, who probably gets caught out wide the whole way here and just think the pressure and fast speed here will bring her unstuck.
These feature MV night sprints often come down to one crucial factor Ė who gets the run at the right time. They are always high pressure races with lots of hard luck stories, and the winner is normally the horse who gets the split at the right time on the turn. The speed battle between the 7-PIPPIE and 9-FABERGINO is going to be the defining factor here, and we think that leaves one sitting behind the speed getting the split as the likely winner Ė and that looks like the 8-DIAMOND EFFORT to us. Talented mare who has been building up to this level for a few campaigns now, in winning form, handles it wet and can just see her bursting through on the home turn here and pretty confident top pick at around $10. Have to respect the gutsy 6-BELLA VELLA as the main danger, that inside barrier is a major worry though, doubt they will push up to hold off the leaders so will need the leaders to come off the rails in the straight and hope that the gap opens. Putting the 3YO 11-HANSEATIC in for third with no weight who also looks to get the split on the turn at the right time and seems generous odds considering his 2YO form. Respect for the old timer 3-JUNGLE EDGE given the conditions. Keen to have a solid each way bet though on the top pick and maybe anchoring in a quinella with the main dangers.
This meeting has actually come up a lot stronger than usual, but there are sure to be quite a few late scratchings with the weather so some of these fields could end up quite small. Note we also have quite a few double engagements over Friday night/Saturday so watch out for horses kept for better races as a positive move. We appreciate everyone has different financial circumstances in these troubled times, so stay home, stay safe and bet responsibly.
BEST WIN: Race 4: 4-CHERRY TORTONI $6 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 4: 4-CHERRY TORTONI#1,3,7 x $3 = 100%
Looks to be a very good horse on the rise and his 2YO wins were super impressive. Came home extremely well late 1st up and plenty of improvement to come and suited out to the 1600M and a genuine Caulfield Guineas chance going forward. Is probably a big track horse so MV is a little query. Does drop back and there isnít that much speed here, so will need them to be winning running on and swooping. Back straight out at around $4 and save on a quinella with the classy 1-GLENFIDDICH, the 3-LUNAR FOX who can sit handy and two runs in have been good with weight and the 7-CROWN MINT who was unlucky last start when took a while to get a clear run at them.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 8-DIAMOND EFFORT $5 EW
Quality sprinting mare who has been building up to a race like this for a few campaigns now and should measure up. Handles it wet, explosive turn of foot, well drawn to sit handy and get the split into the race at the right time on the home turn and coming off a good 1st up win. Seems a very good value bet here at around $10 each way.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 6-GREYSFUL GLAMOUR $5 EW
FIRST FOUR: Race 8: 6 / 3 / 2,10,11 / 1,2,7,10,11 x $2 = 16.67%
FIRST FOUR: Race 8: 6 / 2,10,11 / 3 / 1,2,7,10,11 x $2 = 16.67%
Bold grey front runner who last time she was at MV won by 6L. First up run was excellent when she couldnít cross and lead and kept fighting for the whole length of the straight. She should cross and lead easily here and if the rain doesnít come she will be suited and often hard to run down leaders at MV night meetings. Back each way at around $5 and letís mess around with some stand out first fours with the man danger the classy 3-PERFECT JEWEL who was pretty good 2nd up and up in distance last start in open Group 1 company, but will be giving the leader a head start, and there are a few nice rough place chances towards the bottom of the field in the 10-MY GOLD BRACELET (needs the rain) and the 11-REALM OF FLOWERS running on late.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 10-ROLLING MOSS $2.50 EW
Tough on-pacer with an apprentice claim at the bottom of the weighs and should jump and lead here, and doesnít mind the rain and wind. The 5-EXPRESS PASS is the short priced favourite and the one to beat, but is a drop back horse drawn barrier 1 around MV (which is asking for trouble), and would need a positive ride here, so lets have something on the roughie leading at $17 instead.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 9-VIN DE DANCE $2 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 9-VIN DE DANCE, 5-AL GALAYEL, 6-MIAMI BOUND x $3 = 100%
Fairly open edition of the JRA Cup and this race is famous/infamous for being won by leaders Ė year after year (we will try and find the list and post it in the Facebook comments). This one showed ability as a 3YO, but had a dud campaign last time. Was a fair effort first up here, and most importantly he looks the leader here and this field is a bit bleah so he could easily cause an upset. Back each way at around $20 and take a box quinella with the only fit and in form horse in the race the 5-AL GALAYEL (can they go forward today?) and the mysterious 6-MIAMI BOUND who might be going OK but has had major, major excuses last two runs.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 7-ENDANGER at around $3.50
Pretty hard to find a lay of the day in small fields, so letís get the pain out of the way in the first race and hopefully no-one will notice if it wins. Small field, but most of these go OK and he is coming off a maiden win and likely to get stuck inside a tightly bunched small field here so prefer to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough to buy a luxury yacht so we can sail to Queensland.
TRIFECTA: Race 7: 6,8 / 3,4,6,8,11 / 3,4,5,6,8,10,11 x $5 = 12.5%
Lets try and snare the trifecta in the main race which looks the only race on the card where there may be a dividend. The main winning chances are the 8-DIAMOND EFFORT, 6-BELLA VELLA from the 11-HANSEATIC and there is good value in place getters like the 3-JUNGLE EDGE and 4-ASHLOR so we must need something at odds to land in the placings and we should get an OK return.
Race 1: 1-EXTRA TIME, 4-FREE TO MOVE, 2-SALTPETER
Race 2: 10-ROLLING MOSS, 5-EXPRESS PASS, 3-MY PENDANT
Race 3: 11-HUMAN NATURE, 4-ALFA ORO, 8-LESAGE
Race 4: 4-CHERRY TORTONI, 1-GLENFIDDICH, 7-CROWN MINT
Race 5: 1-SWATS THAT, 3-DIRTY THOUGHTS, 5-SUPREME IDEA
Race 6: 9-VIN DE DANCE, 5-AL GALAYEL, 6-MIAMI BOUND
Race 7: 8-DIAMOND EFFORT, 6-BELLA VELLA, 11-HANSEATIC
Race 8: 6-GREYSFUL GLAMOUR, 3-PERFECT JEWEL, 11-REALM OF FLOWERS