|MOONEE VALLEY: MOIR STAKES - FRIDAY 29th SEPTEMBER 2023|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Fine sunny weather all week and pretty sure from memory we have had a fair share of rubbish rainy weather for this meeting so will make for a nice change. Firm track and rail TRUE and often we get a dynamite leaders track for this meeting so keep a close eye on the racing pattern and that is going to make things interesting for the two short priced backmarkers tonight. Note that the JRA Cup over 2040M which is usually one of the best betting races on this program has been moved to the Cox Plate Even night meeting. As is often the case lots of short priced favourites tonight and most of them will likely win so only treading lightly with little value around.
Reminder that at the moment for Spring Campaign 2023 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post. We will cover Sandown Sunday this week as well.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 4-ZAC DE BOSS $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 4-ZAC DE BOSS#1,6,13 x $3 = 100%
Good firm track sprinter on his day, and was running on well late down the outside in Listed race in Adelaide last start. Drawn out suits this one so can make a clear run around them, and he can probably settle closer to the speed in this. Fair bit of speed up front here and suspect may run over the top of them late in this at around $10. Back each way and anchor in a quinella with the speedy 1-NAJEM SUHAIL with weight, but who basically wins if we get a leader’s track, the long forgotten 6-SEMILION who can go forward and the light-weight 13-MARITANA at odds.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 4-MOJAVE DESERT $3 EW
QUINELLA: 4,6,9,11 boxed x $3= 50%
The Bill Stutt Stakes for 3YO is a very even field and probably any of these can win. This one is fitter for the two runs in and was fighting out the bunched finish at Flemington. Drawn well and can go forward here and looks a nice each way bet at around $9 with the run of the race. In an even field box up the quinella with the 6-KING OF FIGHTERS who was unlucky last start, the 9-LIMBURG as the on-speed roughie at odds and wary of the filly 11-AUTUMN ANGEL.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 10-PAPILLON CLUB $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 10-PAPILLON CLUB, 8-AMELIA’S JEWEL x $2
QUINELLA: Race 6: 10-PAPILLON CLUB#2,4,11 x $3 = 100%
Fitter for the two runs in and was working home nicely at the end of her last race, when had to drop back from an outside barrier. Form over Autumn was excellent, when she proved herself at this level including leading and winning a black type race over 1600M here at MV. Drawn well here and up to a suitable distance and expect them to go forward and if we get a leaders track, or the favourite doesn’t handle MV is capable of the upset here. Back each way at around $10 and anchor in a quinella with the favourite (boring) and a few others on-speed which will pay well if the favourite doesn’t handle MV the 2-DENY KNOWLEDGE, 4-PRIDE OF JENNI, 11-PARTY PRINCESS.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 5-INHIBITIONS $4 EW
This one has been racing extremely well and really liked the way he chased down the leader here two starts back (and that one won at Caulfield last week), before being beaten by a classy filly last start. There doesn’t seem to be that much speed here so might settle more forward, but at least from a middle barrier can let down and chase hard at around $8.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 9-MUTINOUS $2 EW
Good short track sprinter who should be improved off the 1st up run and gets a nice weight drop into this race, especially with apprentice claim. Luck in the run is half the trick with these 955M races and like that he will go forward and be in clear running from a middle barrier so get every chance at $15.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 11-BOOGNISH at around $2.30
No solid reason for this, just seems poor value in a fairly open field. Even though she probably goes forward there is going to be a lot of speed here and might come undone with pressure.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for MV apartment.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 3: 4-ZAC DE BOSS
PLACE: Race 6: 10-PAPILLON CLUB
PLACE: Race 4: 9-MUTINOUS
PLACE: Race 8: 5-INHIBITIONS
Just going a place multi so at least we are still alive if the favourites win. Looking at around $250 for a $5 outlay
Races 7,8,9,10: 4,6,9,11 / 2,4,8,10 / 7,8 / 1,2,5,12 x $20 = 15.6%
Basically if we want to get a collect tonight with lots of favorites we need to get some of them beaten. The first leg is wide open and you can probably throw some others in and hope for an upset. In the second leg the 8-AMELIA’S JEWEL is going to be very hard to beat, but she is going to be giving some on-pace mares a big start around MV. Narrow the feature just down to the 7–IMPERATRIZ and the value danger the 8-ASFOORA and come home wide in an open last leg.
Feature Race Preview:
Small field for the Moir Stakes over 1000M and make sure to check out the previous races to see how strong the on-speed bias is and if this favourite is vulnerable. Likely leader here is the 4-ZOUSTYLE from the 6-ACROMANTULA and the speedy 8-ASFOORA probably takes a sit just off them here with the 5-GENERATION behind those. Small field means there really shouldn’t be any traffic issues for the short-priced favourite 7-IMPERATIZ, which is often the cases in these feature MV sprints. Whatever leads here needs to be respected as a live winning chance.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-ROTHFIRE is suited by the firm track and has excellent track and distance stats. Dropped off the speed and looped them with the (7) here last start and fought out the finish well. Right in the finish of all three MV sprint features last spring and has been in the finish most starts for the last year or so. Question here is barrier 1, the (4) and the (6) should be faster and cross and that does leave him trapped inside runners even in a small field. Hard to knock consistency and is probably a bit under-respected in these races, with the right run he can be in the finish again here – but will need the luck to come.
2-THE INFERNO has kept his best form for MV since returning from overseas, and ran 2nd in this race in 2021. Has been mixing his form last few preparations, but loves running on off a fast speed. Can probably run into the top four but hard to see him fighting out the finish here.
3-UNCOMMON JAMES is a class sprinter winning the Oakleigh Plate over Autumn and has had two jump-outs into this so might be quite forward. Only 1000M run was his Sunshine Coast maiden win so bit hard to tell if this is going to be too short for him. Probably has some class against these and draw to sit in clear running off the speed and run into the race at the right time. Respect.
4-ZOUSTYLE is the likely leader here so just be wary if the track is favouring those on-speed. Led and went head-to-head with the (6) here last start and they were both well covered by those looping around them on the bend. Ran third in this race last year on-speed when the winner got the rails. Best recent form has been on wet tracks. Probably over the odds at $34 and won’t be far off them but only a place chance.
5-GENERATION is one we have dropped off and although his stats read 4 wins from 17 starts, he hasn’t won for 12 starts now (although he has been competing at the top level nearly each time). Definitely better on firm tracks which he gets, and was in the finish making a narrow rails run in this race last year. First-up effort was fair, but likely to get burnt off here and end up inside runners on the rail. Staying off him till he wins another race. No
6-ACROMANTULA impressed with this first couple of Melbourne starts, but realistically that was a lot weaker than this. Burnt off last start and hard to see him turning the tables on those who went past him there. Rough place chance only.
7-IMPERATRIZ absolutely brained them here last start and deserves to be a short-priced favourite based on that. Unbeaten at MV and both wins have been super impressive. Only queries might be if that was a brilliant 1st up run and he is now looking for further and he will be sitting off the speed here on a potential leaders track. Definitely the one to beat and looks the winner.
8-ASFOORA is a pretty smart sprinter who has been nicely working through his races and deserves to pick up a good race. Looks ideally placed here, he can sit handy on the speed in clear running and run into the race at the right time, and like the way he box seated behind the leader last start and let down. Think he is the main danger to the favourite here and will be ahead of him on the turn so definitely capable of an upset.
Summary: Small field, racing pattern will be crucial and its pretty hard to see the favourite the 7–IMPERATRIZ getting beaten if he repeats the last start. If we were having a bet thought it would just be an interest bet on the 8-ASFOORA to win as he will get the run of the race here and is capable of pulling off an upset, especially if the track favours those on-speed and think you should take both in any quadrellas. 3-UNCOMMON JAMES the only other serious winning chance, but the place odds about the rest in a small field are pretty good if you want to give that a try.
Race 1: 9-DELICIOUS TYCOON, 10-THE MARG FACTOR, 8-FARHH FLUNG
Race 2: 3-BRAVE MEAD, 6-ESECUTORE, 4-COINCIDE
Race 3: 4-ZAC DE BOSS, 1-NAJEM SUHAIL, 6-SEMILLION
Race 4: 9-MUTINOUS, 3-HOME RULE, 10-SHIRSHOV
Race 5: 4-MOJAVE DESERT, 6-KING OF FIGHTERS, 9-LIMBURG
Race 6: 10-PAPILLON CLUB, 8-AMELIA’S JEWEL, 2-DENY KNOWLEDGE
Race 7: 7–IMPERATRIZ, 8-ASFOORA, 3-UNCOMMON JAMES
Race 8: 5-INHIBITIONS, 1-SKIRT THE LAW, 2-SHESALLSHENAGINS