Fine weather into the weekend and glorious sunny day forecast for Saturday, though this track doesn’t dry out as fast as the others do. Pushing towards the better side of SOFT and a genuine good track. Rail goes back to the TRUE here, last meeting here in that position strongly favoured those swooping on a wet track, but we should get even racing today and they should be able to win on-speed OK. Despite lots of small fields we are keen to have a bet today, there still seems to be a bit of value around so mainly dabbling with a few roughies.
For Spring Campaign 2025 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 6-SALTY PEARL $4 EW, QUINELLA 3,5,6,11 boxed x $3 = 50%
This is a very open race and so often these early 3YO races throw out a $20 winner as horses improve into the new season. This one showed some sit and strong finish race sense in her first preparation and liked the jump out leading into this when finished on well under a hold. Drawn to swoop into the race from an outside barrier at around $20 and box up a quinella on the 5-OLE DANCER who looks to have some talent, the 3-MISS CELINE who looks value as a strong closer off a good first-up run and the leader the 11-ANGEL LADDER who was only just run down late here last start.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 6-FLYER $4 EW, QUINELLA 6,8,10 boxed x $3 = 100%
Horse with a bit of ability who has run some great races in Adelaide visits. Loomed up to win first-up and looked he like just run out of puff late, should have plenty improvement into this second-up. Suspect he is also better back on a firmer track here, maybe jockey just needs a more forward ride in a race with a lot of back markers. If they are running on and winning he looks a good each way bet at around $8, save on a quinella with the 10-PRINCESS QUE who is a really tough leader and is going to be hard to run down if the track plays on-speed and the consistent 8-HELIX on-speed first-up. Just going away from the two more favoured runners here 1-LA FRACAS and 3-KING ZEPHYR who have both never been around MV.
TRIFECTA: Race 9: 7,14 / 1,7,10,14 / 1,2,4,7,9,10,14,16 x $8 = 22.22%
Trying something different here and trying to land a nice trifecta in the main race around the two who are likely to get the best run into the race in the 14-NIANCE and 7-BARAQIEL. Best roughie here is the 10-ARABIAN SUMMER (who we are also having something each-way on below), but really anything could run a place outside of these with the right luck and plenty of good horses at good odds here. Trifecta should pay well in a big even field.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 12-BRILLIANT VENTURE $2 EW
Older timer who often goes around at long odds and doesn’t often measure up in town these days, but this is a pretty ordinary field and he has struck a winnable race here. He has a great little trick of making a strong mid-race move that they often pull out and it can often throw the rest of the field off. Nice win second-up coming through the field, and once he gets into clear running he is always strong to the line. Little something each-way at $20.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 12-RUMBLED AGAIN $3 EW
Very under-rated mare who continues to run Top 4 and Top 5 runs at long odds. We were on her here last start when she loomed into the race nicely off a strong tempo at long odds, and she will have further improvement to come off that into this peaking third-up. Her form over the MV 1500-1600M range is pretty extraordinary including 3rd ($21), 5th ($81), 4th ($41), 2nd ($81), 3rd ($11), 5th ($61), 1st ($17), so she continues to run above market expectations and is a true friend to those who take same race multis. Not much speed here and she should be able to settle just off the speed again and run into the race at the right time. Main query is that she has basically struck a Feehan field here, with a Melbourne Cup winner and Oaks winner and lots of Group WFA form. But also a long tail to this field of stayers doing warm-up runs and she has race fitness over these and likely to be in the finish again at around $21.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 10-ARABIAN SUMMER $2.50 EW
One we are pretty keen to follow this spring and showed a lot of potential earlier in the year with a strong win at Caulfield before running a great race on-speed in a hectic Oakleigh Plate. Given a strong hit out to be forward for this, main issue is going to be barrier 1 and likely to be behind runners here, but if the gap comes she is capable of winning this and likely to go up a level this spring. Rough at around $20.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 10: 1-LA FRACAS at around $3.80
Been racing extremely well with scintillating late burst finishes, but has also been getting well out of his ground and leaving it very late. That works down the Flemington straight, but what about around MV in a race with not that much speed? A lot will depend on racing pattern but the leader here the 10-PRINCESS QUE looks to dictate, so will need racing pattern on side and some pressure up front.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into an extravagant military parade.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 3: 3-RESET THE JAZZ
PLACE Race 7: 6-SALTY PEARL
PLACE Race 8: 12-RUMBLED AGAIN
PLACE Race 10: 6-FLYER
We almost landed one of these last MV meeting and stupidly went the last leg to win instead of place. Stick with the consistent on-pacer 3-RESET THE JAZZ to kick us off, the 6-SALTY PEARL looks good each way value, the 12-RUMBLED AGAIN got us going last time with a placing at huge odds and come home the place on the 6-FLYER. Looking at around $400 for a $5 outlay
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 1,3,5,6,8,11 / 2,4,12 / 1,7,10,14 / 6,8,10 x $20 = 9.25%
Looks an extremely open first leg so go wide, go narrow through the middle legs and hope for some value and three chances in the last race away from the favoured runners.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 9 MOIR STAKES 1000M GROUP 1
Pretty unusual to get a full field of 16 for these MV sprints and a field of 16 going around the MV 1000M means luck is going to play a big role in this race. Making a clear run at the right time is going to be crucial here, so look for those drawn middle to outside who can take a position and get clear running around the turn whilst the hard luck stories pack up and bump into each other behind them. The early part of this race is likely to be hectic, the 2-MIDWEST can often jump clear of the pack and lead, but the 12-ALABAMA LASS, 16-ESHA both immediately outside him will also go forward, the 4-GOLDEN BOOM is going to have to work very hard from an outside barrier to get across, with 10-ARABIAN SUMMER next in line on the rails. So who gets the sit behind the speed? Probably the 7-BARAQIEL and especially the 14-NIANCE.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-ROTHFIRE is a classy and well-exposed QLD visitor who maintains an excellent win strike rate. Proven at Group 1 level unlike many of these. Been pretty competitive in all of his MV runs and looks to get a good trail into the race here behind the speed. A lot of up and comers here, but this one is proven at the top level time and time again. Strong chance.
2-MIDWEST is a 1000M specialist placed 18/22 is a pretty astounding record, and yet to miss a place here at MV. Has given his best last few starts, but been well held each time, he is still racing well though. Led and kicked here last start but made the mistake of coming off the rails which let the (7) through inside him. He is better on firmer ground, so drying track here suits. Normally in his wins he gets a clear lead and scoots clear and doesn’t get pressure, so whilst he should cross and find the rails today he is likely to get a lot of pressure up front. On a MV leader’s track he would definitely be a great chance. Does seem to have been well held last few starts, but considering his distance and track record he seems over the odds at $34. Rough chance and elevate if leaders are winning.
3-PAYLINE is another QLD visitor who is first-up here and not a 1000M specialist unlike many of these. Most recent racing pattern has been to drop well back in the run, so he is going to be giving quite a few good horses a decent head start here. Passing.
4-GOLDEN BOOM had to work early from an outside barrier to go forward here last start and was still fighting hard to the line. Both MV runs have been full of merit and this one is speedy enough to be competitive in any 1000M race. Big challenge here is the barrier draw, he is going to have to work really hard to get across today against a lot of speedy horses and likely to be caught wide the whole way. Form is good, improvement to come and proven here so the $35 does seem a little harsh about this one as well. Unlikely to win, but no reason why can’t be around the finish at good odds.
5-QUEMAN has always had a stack of ability and was a pretty astounding training effort to win first-up last start in Adelaide off a 70 week break. That was a super tough effort as they loomed to run him down but he fought on well. Back to the 1000M here but excellent record this distance and proven at Group 1 level. Wide barrier will make it tricky, will have to be ridden further back than usual and reckon sometimes those coming off great first-up runs off a long break can struggle a bit second up. Another who seems crazy odds for his form though. No
6-JEDIBEEL SCRATCHED
7-BARAQIEL had a break out spring last year before injury and was SCR at the barrier for intended first-up run, but finally got out onto the track here last start and railed through and won with class. Likely plenty of improvement to come out of that run too. Unbeaten in three MV starts. Perfect middle draw here to track the speed and loop into the race at the right time and beat many of these home last start and meets them on slightly better weights. Strong chance.
8-SIR SWAY continues to run above expectations, and is a really tough on-speed 1200M horse when fit – but this is a 1000M race, a distance he has never attempted. Outside barrier means they will probably have to drop back here and suspect this is more likely a warm up run for a feature 1200M race over the spring. Later.
9-OAK HILL swooped them up with ease first-up when the track and racing pattern was favourable and then was ridden too quiet here last start at the back of the field on a track favouring those on-speed. Excellent track and distance stats. Likely to settle well back here and probably going to be coming widest on the turn, so a lot will depend on racing pattern today. Should always forgive them one bad run, another one who gets out to very generous odds and whose form is actually pretty good. Rough chance if racing pattern suits.
10-ARABIAN SUMMER put in some great runs at the start of the year when went rapidly rising though the grades and the Oakleigh Plate run was excellent on a furious tempo that set it up for the backmarkers. Sped along to win a jump out so should be pretty forward for this first-up and has a fair bit of upside. Firm track horse and think this one is one to follow this spring and she may be going places. Interesting to see what they do here, drawn barrier 1 and would have to work hard to hold out the speed horses drawn immediately outside her (x3), but if they take a sit she will have a wall of horses in front of her on the turn and will have to rely on luck to get through. She is good enough to win this – just not sure the race is going to be run to suit. Still very interested though. Rough.
11-SKY BIRD has been re-invented as a sprinter and gobbled up the field with ease to cause a boilover to win the Lightning first-up earlier this year. Backmarker, drawn an inside barrier is going to spell trouble here and weaving through the field from last in a Flemington 1000M race is do-able, in a MV 1000M race almost needs a miracle and/or the apartment bulldozers to dig out a clear path. Speed on should suit, but would need an awful lot of luck here. Prefer to risk today.
12-ALABAMA LASS was impressive leading all the way in first Australian start and not often NZ horses can come over here and do that. Another one who is likely to contest the speed, so they may all knock each other out here. Better over slightly further, so will MV 1000M suit here? Interesting she is so well in the market though so punters must have an opinion of her. Has the ability to win this and a genuine chance, keep an eye on what the market does, but don’t think she represents much value here. Chance.
13-TIGER SHARK SCRATCHED
14-NIANCE maintains a super impressive 7/11 winning strike rate, and gets a good chance to test herself here today in open class. She is better over slightly longer, but this looks a good race to attack first-up, fast speed on should suit and she should be strong late. Like the barrier here, she can sit just behind the speed in clear running and get the perfect run into the race. Another on the way up and she looks a really strong chance here. Strong chance.
15-LA DORADA is a NZ visitor who is difficult to line up, but 3YO filly in open class and never run over 1000M, so assuming heading towards other spring targets. Market doesn’t seem that interested at the moment, but nothing wrong with her form, just she is a total unknown. Can’t push with any confidence but no reason why she couldn’t be competitive here.
16-ESHA is the boom 3YO who has definitely got a start in this race as emergency with some scratchings. Classy win first start in Adelaide and then won with ease here last start, running times and trials have been impressive. Likely to go forward here, but she is going to get early race pressure for the first time so will be interesting to see how she copes. Plenty of buzz around her and that is usually correct, but markets can get well ahead of themselves sometimes with these types and she is priced on potential at the moment rather than her actual form. Suspect she ends up starting favourite here. She probably wins impressively here, or doesn’t run place. No reason why she can’t win but queries are the early race pressure and open class older horses. Chance, with reservations and not a betting proposition for us in a market with lots of horses at great value.
Summary:
Going to be a pretty furious competitive race here and there are plenty of in-form horses with talent going around at $20 or better. Feature MV sprints are all about luck, and a capacity 16 horse field with lots of speed over 1000M the barriers are going to be crucial. Can see the 14-NIANCE getting the perfect run here off the speed and coming into the race with a clear run on the turn and she goes on top from the 7-BARAQIEL who is likely to get a similar run. We want to stick with the 10-ARABIAN SUMMER this spring, so even if she might need luck here we want to put her in as best rough. The 1-ROTHFIRE the other main winning chance. Extremely open field and likely to be some nice exotics here so punting approach is maybe a wide trifecta with the top two horses to win and something each way on the 10-ARABIAN SUMMER as the roughie.
Race 1: 5-ORNOS, 2-GODTFRED KIRK, 6-MIEWA
Race 2: 5-MOONLIGHT CIRCUS, 6-SAVILLA, 9-STUPENDOUS
Race 3: 3-RESET THE JAZZ, 1-KINGS VALLEY, 7-PRESSER
Race 4: 10-NAVY KING, 2-LINCOLN ROCKS, 12-BRILLIANT VENTURE
Race 5: 5-RED HOT NICC, 2-ZOU SENSATION, 3-ANGEL CAPITAL
Race 6: 6-PLANET RED, 2-BACASH, 5-ESTREMO
Race 7: 6-SALTY PEARL, 5-OLE DANCER, 3-MISS CELINE
Race 8: 4-DESERT LIGHTNING, 12-RUMBLED AGAIN, 2-ATTRITION
Race 9: 14-NIANCE, 7-BARAQIEL, 10-ARABIAN SUMMER
Race 10: 6-FLYER, 10-PRINCESS QUE, 8-HELIX
