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Sportsbet are offering money back if your horse runs 2nd to Waller trained runner. |
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| MOONEE VALLEY: MOONEE VALLEY - 23rd Aug 2014 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: Fine - Rail: OUT 4M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): This is the gap meeting in the feature spring schedule with no group races scheduled. Often these MV meetings feature small fields and short priced favourites, but this card has come up pretty well today and there is a bit of depth and variety and some size about the fields which will make for an OK betting day. Rail goes out 4M here and generally at MV the further the rail goes out the more it favours on pacers. Last meeting here a few weeks back the rail was TRUE and the rails was a no go zone and every race was won by those swooping out wide. Moving the rail out should get rid of that bad zone and we should get even racing here, but it will pay to be up and running on the turn for a clear run at them and be wary of those who from inside barriers who drop back in the field. RESULTS: Track ends up a GOOD(3) and the racing is pretty even. They can come from behind and get into the race, but most of the races are won by the on pacers, and as always at Moonee Valley plenty of hard luck stories of horses trapped back on in inside coming into the turn. Betting Portfolio scores a major win tipping BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 6-MOURINHO 1st at W=$17.10 BEST WIN : Race 8: 3-VILLA VERDE $7 WIN X BEST WIN : Race 8: 10-SHAMAL WIND $3 WIN 4th W=$3.60 Very even sprint race, but think with the speed on you will want to be on the two class sprinters drawn wide and swooping into the race. Back the top pick 3-VILLA VERDE straight out at around $6, and save on the main danger the 10-SHAMAL WIND at around $5 RESULTS: Very even sprint race and it was all about being in the right spot in clear running at the right time - and unfortunately neither of our runners were. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 2-PRIZUM $5 EW X Really honest type who has been racing in fantastic form last few starts. Fitter for the 3 runs in, has made great ground late last two and just looks ready to win. Small field here and not a huge amount of speed so wouldn’t want him to drop too far back , but you would think he would be able to settle a little closer today and with the small field should have no trouble getting into the race. Looks a solid each way bet at around $5 RESULTS: Looms up before the turn but fails to go on with it - bit disappointing in a fairly weak race. BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 4-ZABEELIONAIRE $4 EW 2nd W=$3.20, P=$1.40 = 4 x 1.40 = $5.60 QUINELLA: Race 7: 4-ZABEELIONAIRE - 11-UNIQUE ASSASSIN x $2.50 2nd 4-ZABEELIONAIRE W=$3.20 QUINELLA: Race 7: 4-ZABEELIONAIRE - 7-ANGELOLOGY x $1 SCR $1 Very hard to catch on a winning day and hasn’t won a race now since the SA Derby in 2012, but his last few runs have been good and placed 3 from 5 over the 2500M. Needs a track that is not too wet and not too firm and today looks just about right. There has been a serious lack of form around in these Saturday staying races for a few weeks now and this week is no exception, seriously weak field and he should be running into this at the right time. For a bit of value, take the quinella with the 11-UNIQUE ASSASSIN at odds who is about the only horse in the field with any winning form and has a nice light weight with the claim, and the 7-ANGELOLOGY who was disappointing last start, but should lead unchallenged here. Back the (4) each way at around $5.50 and hope for a nice collect in the quinella. RESULTS: 4-ZABEELIONAIRE gets ridiculously well backed for a horse that had not won in over 2 years. Comes into the race at the right time, but just missed, probably just took a little too long to wind up after going around the tight MV turn. BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 6-MOURINHO $3 EW 1st W=$17.10, P=$4.20 = $63.90 This one just loves MV, and has won 3 from 7 here, and just keeps popping up at odds in his races. Better over further and is 1st up today, but so is most of this field, and he has drawn OK so might settle closer than expected. Ran a huge race 1st up last time in at odds. Most of these are going to drop back and are looking to kick off spring campaigns to loftier targets, so if he jumps and settles on speed here he is going to put himself into the finish. Worth something each way at odds at around $18. RESULTS: Fantastic get out bet here, not only did we spot the value winner in the last at odds, we also worked out how it was going to win. Got a perfect sit behind the lead and put itself into the race at the right time. QUINELLA: Race 4: 1,4 (scr),7,9,10,13 boxed x $7.50 = 50% 1st 13-RELENTLESS W=$9.10, 2nd 9-ALIYANA W=$4.50 Quinella = $10.20 + SCR $2.50 = $12.70 This is one of the more open races of the day and there are two we like here at odds rolling on the speed, the 10-KINSELMAC MANNER at around $18, and the 13-RELENTLESS (with the light weight) at around $14. Not really keen on the favourite in this the (2) from an outside barrier, up to the 1600M and coming off an indifferent run, so should be plenty of value in the quinella in a big, even field and you can go wide and hope for a result around our two rough chances. RESULTS: Right on the money here again with one of our value picks 13-RELENTLESS winning at nice odds and leading all the way. Thought the quinella paid a little unders actually - ripped off. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 2: 6-COUNT ENCOSTA at around $2.60 1st W=$2.20 This one is racing in really good form, flew home late here two starts back and good last start again at Flemington. So can’t really knock his form and he looks well suited here – but just find it hard to be convinced we should go taking $2.60 about a horse that has won 5 starts from 60 in a Saturday metro race. He is going well, his last two runs have been great and he might win – but just not interested at the odds on offer. RESULTS: OK, so the Lay of the Day won, but we made up for it with the other bets. Still not really interested at the short odds on offer regardless. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. DAILY DOUBLE: Races 7,9: 4,11 / 3,6,9,12(scr),13 x $5 = 50% 2nd 4-ZABEELIONAIRE W=$3.20 / 1st 6-MOURINHO W=$17.10 SCR $1 There should be a bit of value in the daily double with a wide open 2nd leg with lots of good value chances. Go two out in the 1st leg, with our best each way bet, 4-ZABEELIONAIRE and the roughie 11-UNIQUE ASSASSIN and plenty to chose from in the 2nd leg, with the 13-FAST AND FREE fit, in form and liking MV and roughie 6-MOURINHO and hope you get a rough x rough = nice collect result. RESULTS: Not far off here either, 4-ZABEELIONAIRE just missed in the first leg and we found the value winner in the 2nd leg. SPENT: $50 RETURN: $83.20 NET: $+33.20 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 2-AFLEET ESPRIT, 4-COOL HERO, 7-HOSTILE WITNESS Race 2: 2-PRIZUM, 5-WROTHAM HEATH, 7-VINTAGE LAD Race 3: 3-SOLSAY, 6-LAOHU, 5-UNDER THE LOUVRE Race 4: 10-KINSELMAC MANNER, 13-RELENTLESS, 7-ROYAL MEPHISTO Race 5: 9-JACINTA, 13-GOLD HEIST, 3-GIRL GUIDE Race 6: 3-PETROLOGY, 2-ORUJO, 7-FAST CASH Race 7: 4-ZABEELIONAIRE, 11-UNIQUE ASSASSIN, 7-ANGELOLOGY Race 8: 3-VILLA VERDE, 10-SHAMAL WIND, 2-KENCELLA Race 9: 13-FAST AND FREE, 6-MOURINHO, 12-TEXT ‘N’HURLEY |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-AFLEET ESPRIT 1st W=$3.40 4-COOL HERO 7-HOSTILE WITNESS |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-PRIZUM 5-WROTHAM HEATH 7-VINTAGE LAD 3rd W=$5.60 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-SOLSAY 2nd W=$6.70 6-LAOHU 5-UNDER THE LOUVRE 3rd W=$3.00 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-KINSELMAC MANNER 13-RELENTLESS 1st W=$9.10 *** nice value winner *** 7-ROYAL MEPHISTO |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-JACINTA 2nd W=$5.80 13-GOLD HEIST 3-GIRL GUIDE 1st W=$2.30 Quinella: $7.60 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-PETROLOGY 2-ORUJO 7-FAST CASH |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-ZABEELIONAIRE 2nd W=$3.20 11-UNIQUE ASSASSIN 7-ANGELOLOGY SCR |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-VILLA VERDE 10-SHAMAL WIND 2-KENCELLA |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-FAST AND FREE 6-MOURINHO 1st W=$17.10 *** Best Rough wins at nice odds *** 12-TEXT ‘N’HURLEY SCR |
| RACE 8: CARLYON STAKES LISTED 1000M |
| Tips: 3-VILLA VERDE 10-SHAMAL WIND 2-KENCELLA |
| Others: 12, 9 Pace: FAST Leaders : 2-KENCELLA, 9-JUST A BULLET Handy : 1-SEA LORD, 3-VILLA VERDE, 6-AFRICAN PULSE, 11-ANGELIC LIGHT, 12-MINAJ, 13-ANGELS BEACH Back : 5-ICONIC, 7-OUR NKWAZI, 8-O'MALLEY, 10-SHAMAL WIND Chances: 2-KENCELLA is a Sydney visitor with a pretty decent win strike rate, 60%, which gets you a “C” and that is all you need to get by on. Jump and run sprinter, given two trials to get ready for a 1st up run and looks right in this. Drawn 3, should run to the lead and rail here and really there is not much time for messing around over the MV 1000M so leading on the rails is a good a spot as any. Suspect it will be a plus to be on the rails too. Watch the market but looks the one to beat on form. Go well. 3-VILLA VERDE has yet to be unplaced in 4 x 1st up runs and 4 x 1000M runs, but there is a first time for everything. Contested and was right in the finish of all the Autumn Group 1 sprints last time in. Really solid and consistent Group 1and Group 2 form and that puts him a cut above most of these. 1000M and only has to give the field 1-2kgs. Does seem to be his best distance too. Barrier 10 actually isn’t a bad barrier for this guy, despite being a 1000M horse he tends to drop back, so an outside barrier to get a clear run into the race around the turn is vital for him. Might have a class edge on these. Strong chance. 10-SHAMAL WIND is a really good little sprinter on her day, she likes the speed on, and a turning track and she has an amazing burst of speed when timed right. Think she is definitely better around a turn despite her good straight form and she hasn’t had the best of luck a few times in her races. Has won 1st up at both of her last two preparations, and like the (3) is yet to be beaten 1st up or over 1000M – so one of them is going to lose bragging rights today. Recent trial winner as well so ready to go and firm ground suits. Looks to be enough speed here and she had drawn out to get a clear crack at them. Have a bit of time for this one and she is another who has been highly competitive in group races. Might just come down to how well they are running on, as although the speed is on here suspect the racing will favour on pacers. Strong chance. 4th W=$3.60 12-MINAJ is yet another runner with an excellent win strike rate and not disgraced in a few group sprints. Firmer track a big plus for this one, and not sure you can pay too much attention to the heavy track trial in lead up to this. Two times winner here and three times winner over the 1000M. She can go forward as well here and there are quite a few who will, and won 1st up last time in over the 955M here by 6L. Just wonder though if she might just settle just off the speed here and have the sit on them? She is another with form and enough ability to win this and a lot of this race is going to be determined by luck in running. Chance. Place: 6-AFRICAN PULSE hasn’t really gone on from his early form and doesn’t seem to have got back to his best since long lay off and surgery after injury in late 2013. Two runs back this time in, was disappointing 1st up and always a worry when the jockey reports the horse didn’t feel right. Last run here was actually pretty good, he stuck it out right to the line in a 3 way finish. Drawn wide and does like to go forward and likely to get caught wide on the speed here and there is a fair bit of speed drawn inside him. 5 times winner over the 1000M and might be getting back to his best. Rough chance only. 8-O'MALLEY was sensationally backed last start and there does seem to have been quite a few of these plunges come off in the last month. Yet to miss a place in 5 starts and 3 times winner over the 1000M. Did drive through to win down the straight last time and he does drop off the speed a bit so might be a different story around the MV 1000M. Drawn middle barrier is a plus as will need to be running into the race at the right time. This is actually a fairly decent rise in class here and this field has come up quite strong this year. Watch the market to see if the betting moves come again, but actually tending towards a place around the tight MV circuit – he has been doing most of his racing on big tracks and not quite sure how a MV 1000M scamper is going to suit. Place. SCR 9-JUST A BULLET has been racing in fairly weaker country class but yet to finish further back than 2nd in 6 starts, so can hardly complain. Did string together a series of short priced and clear margin wins so looks to have plenty of ability. At only city run only just missed the photo here. Rising in class again and meeting a pretty strong field, so watch the market for a guide. Has drawn (8) and does like to go forward so is going to put plenty of pressure on the lead here. Might just be the question of whether the several leaders in this race knock each other out and set it up for something sitting off them. Could keep on improving though so wouldn’t be writing off his chances, but just get the impression this race has probably come up stronger than they expected. Rough only. Sacking: 1-SEA LORD is a top notch jump and run sprinter on his day but has been struggling for form of late. Failed to show much up the straight 1st up, but don’t really think he is a straight horse despite putting in the odd good run or so. Raced on speed here last start, but the racing pattern was strongly favouring those running on. Drops back 200M and drawn middle and can go forward and sit on the speed in clear running which is a plus. Fitter for the 2 runs in and is a 4 times winner at MV, though normally prefers the 1200M. Really apart from that one good run during Cup Week his last 11 runs have been a bit below par. Did burst onto the scene with a long odds win at this meeting in 2012. Firmer track also a plus for this one. Probably just gets run off his feet a little here and hard to get enthused on form, but is also capable of rapid improvement so worth a rough place chance if you want to go really wide. Else no. 4-UATE SCRATCHED 5-ICONIC is another 1000M specialist who probably just prefers a little give in the ground. Another with an impressive 1st up and 1000M record, though was beaten 1st up last time in when a $1.70 fav. Recent barrier trial winner too so looks ready to go. Barrier 2 is a real concern though – he does drop well back in the run, and very hard to win from inside barriers over the mad 1000M MV tight turn dash. Especially in a field this size with the speed on. Happy to risk him on that alone. 1st W=$10.40 7-OUR NKWAZI is a very honest type who caused a boilover and totally blew out the Early Quaddie when he won here last start as the outsider of the field, and the short priced favourite flopped. Placed 10 from 19 over the 1000M and has been racing consistently at a weaker level over winter. Likely to drop back here from an outside barrier. To be honest think he had everything go his way last start, the track was strongly favouring those running on – and he was the widest runners in a small field and got the perfect run into the race. Only getting 1kgs here from some very smart group performers. He is very consistent, just think he is out of his depth at this level and this field has come up quite strong this year. No 11-ANGELIC LIGHT is another lightly raced and well performed runner in a very even field of up and comers. Group 1 place getter in Autumn 2013 but obviously had some issues since then and has not been back to the racetrack. Had a trial and looks ready to go 1st up, but coming off a year or more break into a strong field probably just want to see how she goes. Watch the market moves to see how confident the stable is. From an inside barrier here sitting just off the speed she might get cluttered up for runs when they all swing for home around the turn too. Prefer to see today. 3rd W=$18.50 13-ANGELS BEACH is another lightly raced well performed sprinter, who has yet to finish further back than 5th in 8 career starts to date. Always tends to start very well supported in her races. 1st up and won 3 from 4 1st up. She likes to sit just on the speed, but think the barrier 1 here is a major issue – there is a stack of speed in this, there are going to be 3-4 going to the lead, and she is going to get stuck on the rails behind them, and in a field of decent size around MV she is going to need luck getting out and getting a crack at them. Going to risk her today. No. 2nd W=$5.90 Summary: This race has come up extremely strong this year, there is a lot of depth to this field and most of the field are lightly raced with excellent win strike rates. Worth noting it is only 2kgs between most of these, and some have solid group form and some do not, but are just promising up and comers. MV 1000M races are always quite tricky, we prefer to be on those leading, or in those drawn out a little who can get into the clear at the right time before the turn and get into the race. In a decent sized field, with plenty of speed up front here think luck in running is going to be a major factor and expect to hear more than one hard luck story coming out of this race. There should be a stack of speed in this race, 2-KENCELLA should lead on the rails, but 9-JUST A BULLET, 6-AFRICAN PULSE (coming from wide barrier), 12-MINAJ, 13-ANGELS BEACH will all be up on the speed. All of these are capable of winning, just depends how much they knock each other out on pace. Suspect though it is going to set the race up for something sitting handy, out wide and not too far off them to swoop on the turn. A lot will depend on whether they can run on OK, suspect racing might tend towards on pacers today so watch for the racing pattern earlier on. This should be a pretty keen betting race and it is hard to know where to turn. But think with the speed on you want to go with those proven at a higher level, drawn out and swooping into the race, so 3-VILLA VERDE on top here, like that she has drawn out and think she might be ahead of her main rival and other swooper 10-SHAMAL WIND coming into the bend, which might make all the difference. 2-KENCELLA leading on the rails the best of the on pacers, but also suspect 12-MINAJ is going to be right in the finish too and tossing up between those for third selection. Whatever you back it is going to need luck around the tight MV 1000M – so good luck. One to risk: 13-ANGELS BEACH #RED 2nd W=$5.90 Roughie: 9-JUST A BULLET The Key: MV 1000M lead or be in clear running to get into the race – luck is going to be crucial here. RESULTS: Race totally comes down to luck in running and the three we gave no chance to - ran the trifecta! Somehow 5-ICONIC from an inside barrier was sitting outside runners ready to go on the turn, as predicted 13-ANGELS BEACH struggled to get a clear run from the inside barrier and was unlucky not to win (and lucky for us though as we made her One To Risk). 10-SHAMAL WIND running on well and the one to follow going forward. |
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