 |
Have a free $200 ping at one at odds - up to $200 cash back offer
Betfair now offers a Best of 4 tote product |
|
| MOONEE VALLEY: MOONEE VALLEY - 24th Aug 2013 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 4M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Wet and cold weather heading into the weekend with showers on most days so the track here should stay in the genuine dead range, probably towards the worse side of dead. Rail is OUT 4M, and the further the rail goes out at MV the more chance you have of a leader’s bias. Surprisingly the last meeting here a few weeks ago we had a leaders track - even though the rail was TRUE that day. With the rail out and fairly large fields for a MV meeting just be wary of those who may get stuck on the rails behind runners, sure to be plenty of hard luck stories of horses who don’t get runs coming around the turn. Try to tend towards on pacers, who handle it wet and those drawn to sit handy out wider. MV meetings are famous for small fields and short priced favourites, and even with larger fields here we still have a swag of short priced favourites, and you would think most of them are going to win. The feature listed races are actually Race 3 and Race 4 on the program, which is a little unusual, it is not like the field sizes are that small to warrant leaving them out of the quadrella. So the feature form is actually for Race 3 – which is a bit strange. Bit hard to predict the speed and form in some of these races with lots of interesting runners in the emergencies, so don’t know if they will be in the field or not. Also hard to find value with lots of short priced favourites. RESULTS: Track comes up surprisingly well and is upgraded to a GOOD(3). Fairly even racing, and as per usual for a Moonee Valley meeting the short priced favourites win. Probably just a slight advantage to be on the speed. BEST BET: Race 7: 9-BEL THOR $8 WIN 3rd W=$2.80 QUINELLA: Race 7: 9-BEL THOR #1,5,13,14(scr) x $6 = 150% 3rd 9-BEL THOR W=$2.80, 1st 1-CLANG AND BANG 1st W=$8.00. SCR $1.50 One with a bit of a ability who just raced a little erratically last start at Flem when just failed to run down the (1). Looks to have a lot more upside than most of these, and should be right at peak now with the 3 runs in. The rain around is a plus and is probably better on tracks the worse side of dead, so the more rain the better for this one. In a race with not much speed maybe just prefer to see him ridden a bit more forward here, especially if the racing pattern favours on pacers. Happy to have something straight out at the $3.20 on offer, and maybe just save with some quinellas with the on pacers, some at long odds. RESULTS: Gets extremely well backed to start a bit on the short side, drier track probably does not suit and is trapped out 3 wide all the way. Still well covered, but guess you can make excuses. Maybe wait till he gets back on a rain affected track. BEST BET: Race 4: 8-CAUTHEN $10 WIN 1st W=$2.30 = 10 x 2.30 = $23 Very impressive winner at debut, who got heavily backed here last start and just lost all momentum nearing the turn inside runners, before getting going again and finishing on really strongly. Looks to be on the up and has a stack of potential. Should really win at around $2.60, only question is how short he is going to start. RESULTS: Hopelessly unlucky last start and really looked close to a good thing. Still a bit wobbly around the tight bends, but once he flattens out in the straight a class horse on the rise. Keep following onto better things this spring. BEST WIN: Race 3: 1-GENERAL TRUCE, 9-POCKET ROCKETS $4 WIN X This race looks one of the better betting races of the day, and looking for something that will handle it wet and will sit outside runners and run into the race at the right time. Both the (1) and the (9) fit this racing pattern, the (1) is 1st up but extremely consistent and will be suited by the speed here and the (9) was really good winning at Flemington last start and might be one on the up. Back both straight out at generous odds of $7.50 and $12. RESULTS: Sum up the race pretty well, with the swoopers running all over the top of them in the last 50M and both our bets were not far away, with the 1-GENERAL TRUCE finishing 4th at W=$10.40 and the 9-POCKET ROCKETS 6th W=$16.50 coming with a blistering run from last and actually would have won in another couple of metres. Keep following the (9) he is flying at the moment. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 2-TUSCAN FIRE $4 EW X QUINELLA: Race 6: 2,5,12 9(scr),15,16(scr) x $5 = 50% SCR $3.50 Surprise winner at 100-1 1st up last start, but this one really has a fair bit of ability and in a race with not much form, nor race fitness seems a decent each way bet at around $12. Might just go on with it, came from well back last start, but normally leads or races on the speed once gets out to longer journeys so hoping will be ridden a bit more forward here. Back each way, and box up a quinella in what seems a very even race, mainly with the other value runner here, the 15-LIGHTENUFF (emerg), who is fit, well drawn and on speed and should be in the finish at odds. RESULTS: Races a bit more flat footed 2nd up, but still works to the line well and keep following this spring. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 5-ADAMANTIUM at around $4.00 7th W=$3.60 fav Hard to find a lay of the day that is well in the market today, as there are lots of short priced favourites who look hard to beat. And yes, the Lay of the Day did win last week, so we are looking to keep our perfect and shameful record in tact here. Lots of speed in this race, this one is a good sprinter, but might just get run off his legs here over the MV 1000M and seems to be better on top of the ground. Just looks under the odds at $4.00 in a pretty even race with quite a few in form sprinters. RESULTS: Gets really well backed and starts favourite, actually kicks to the lead and swamped in the last 50M. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. $5 All Up Place: PLACE Race 2: 3-GOTTA TAKE CARE 1st W=$5.70, P=$1.80 PLACE Race 3: 9-POCKET ROCKETS 6th - unlucky PLACE Race 6: 15-LIGHTENUFF (emerg)6th PLACE Race 7: 1-CLANG AND BANG 1st W=$8.00, P=$2.20 Theme of the bet here is in form, on pace wet trackers. The (3) will probably get back in Race 2, but finished off his race really well last start, the (9) looks a good value place bet in Race 3, the (15) looks the value on pace runner in race 6, and the (1) looks over the odds in Race 7 for a last start city winner and should be around the finish. Looking at over $400 collect for your $5 if we can get these to fall into the placings somewhere. RESULTS: Gave this one a bit of a shake - 1st and last leg wins at nice each way odds and the middle legs weren't far off. SPENT: $50 RETURN:$28 NET: $-22 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 2-GREGERS, 4-PINDAN PEARL, 3-CELERITAS Race 2: 3-GOTTA TAKE CARE, 2-CRAFTY CRUISER, 8-HIGH AIMS Race 3: 1-GENERAL TRUCE, 9-POCKET ROCKETS, 4-COMMANDING JEWEL Race 4: 8-CAUTHEN, 2-CHARLES IN CHARGE, 1-LONG JOHN Race 5: 14-PETITE DIABLESSE, 1-ELITE ELLE, 12-CHAMPAGNE SHISHA Race 6: 2-TUSCAN FIRE, 15-LIGHTENUFF (emerg), 16-CAPTAIN FANCYPANTZ (emerg), 5-SPACECRAFT Race 7: 9-BEL THOR, 1-CLANG AND BANG, 5-SUPREMACY Race 8: 7-CAVALLO NERO, 14-NEAREST TO PIN (emerg), 8-RUSAMBO, 12-GENERAL OFFER |
 |
|
| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-GREGERS 1st W=$1.20 4-PINDAN PEARL 3rd W=$10.20 3-CELERITAS |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-GOTTA TAKE CARE 1st W=$5.70 2-CRAFTY CRUISER 8-HIGH AIMS |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-GENERAL TRUCE 9-POCKET ROCKETS 4-COMMANDING JEWEL |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-CAUTHEN 1st W=$2.30 *** Best Bet Of The Day *** 2-CHARLES IN CHARGE 1-LONG JOHN 3rd W=$5.70 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 14-PETITE DIABLESSE 1-ELITE ELLE 1st W=$3.50 12-CHAMPAGNE SHISHA |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-TUSCAN FIRE 15-LIGHTENUFF 5-SPACECRAFT |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-BEL THOR 3rd W=$2.80 1-CLANG AND BANG 1st W=$8.00 5-SUPREMACY |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-CAVALLO NERO 3rd W=$8.80 8-RUSAMBO 12-GENERAL OFFER |
| RACE 3: CARLYON STAKES LISTED 1000M |
| Tips: 1-GENERAL TRUCE 9-POCKET ROCKETS 4-COMMANDING JEWEL |
| Others: 3,2 Pace: FAST Leaders: 2-ADEBISI, 8-CANALI, 11-GOLDEN SUNSHINE Handy: 1-GENERAL TRUCE, 4-COMMANDING JEWEL, 9-POCKET ROCKETS, 10-CHOSEN TO FLY Back: 3-BROKEN, 5-ADAMANTIUM, 6-IT'S CRUNCH TIME, 7-DURNFORD Chances: 1-GENERAL TRUCE is one we have a bit of time for, mainly cause he is very consistent, quite under rated and keeps winning at good odds – what more could you want from a racehorse? Looks actually really well in under this set weights weight scale, Excellent MV record and yet to be unplaced in 6 starts over the MV 1000M. Placed 5 from 7 1st up to so fresh form is pretty good and handles all track conditions. Drawn out nicely too to sit in clear space and get a clear crack at them which is important over the tight MV 1000M here. Speed on, can sit off them and run on and looks right in this first up if he is ready. Watch market. Strong chance. 4th W=$10.40 4-COMMANDING JEWEL is a very smart and largely untapped 3YO filly making her 4YO debut. Has a class of touch and potential over these and has a potential Cox Plate start in her sights. Had close to a full year off, but has been doing plenty of work leading into this. Although she had a huge spruik on her last spring, she wasn’t winning that impressively – until Thousand Guineas Day when she really put it all together. Question is how forward she is going to be over 1000M 1st up when there are big plans for her this spring – though being very lightly raced you would think she will go well fresh. Has the class to win this, maybe would like to see her right up on the speed though, just wonder if she might get caught inside here from an inside barrier over 1000M. Should be in the finish, market the best guide, but wouldn’t want to go taking too short odds about her. Chance. 9-POCKET ROCKETS has strung together 3 on end and seems to be flying. Really like the way he threaded through the field and won full of gusto last start down the straight. Is up in class, and into a pretty strong race, but racing in career best form. Solid 1000M record and probably would prefer track to be worse of dead, which looks likely. Weighted close to some pretty smart sprinters here. But fit, in winning form, and really like the middle barrier here – can sit right on the speed and get a clear crack at them and think that is going to be important in this race. Strong chance. Place: 2-ADEBISI is a QLD visitor with an excellent win strike rate. Fitter for the 2 runs in and was right up with the best on them during the Autumn in Melbourne, being beaten not far in an Oakleigh Plate. Drawn wide and likely to go forward, so might just get caught wide on the speed here. Handles all conditions but maybe just slightly better top of the ground. Sure to be thereabouts, but tending towards place in a field with a bit of depth. Place. 3-BROKEN is another one we have time for, who keeps racing well at good odds. Got gifted this race last year on protest when he managed to split the protesting horse and the winner, so got a free win for his trouble. Probably prefers the track to be the worse side of dead, which he may get here too. Is racing just as well this year, if not better, and have to like the way he chased down the leaders last start at Flemington for his first win over 1200M. Best form is over 1000M, but he races like he wants further these days and just a little worried he is going to drop too far back here and run on too late – unless they set a furious speed ? Just wary of horse who won in the last stride coming from well back over the Flem 1200M, dropping back to the MV 1000M. So he is a horse we follow, but just got a feeling dropping back to 1000M today he may leave it a bit late. Prefer place.1st W=$11.70 10-CHOSEN TO FLY is a smart speedy on pacer who surprised a little last time in when he managed to get out to 1400M and win. Obviously had a few issues and has had a full year between runs, but is a winner and only beaten once over the 1000M. Probably just prefers the track the better side of dead. Probably want to watch the market on this one 1st up, should be thereabouts, but tending towards place. Place. 2nd W=$21.70 11-GOLDEN SUNSHINE is another lightly raced speedster drawn out a little here with a fair bit of speed inside her. Up in class, but has been competitive in Listed grade before and wet conditions wouldn’t worry. Another you probably just watch the betting on, only concern is that the on pacers here might knock each other over, so prefer place. Place. 3rd W=$5.60 Sacking: 5-ADAMANTIUM is another consistent sprinter who hit peak form with two summer wins down the straight at sunny Flemington. Likes to position up on the speed in 1200M to 1400M races and is generally thereabouts. 1st up over 1000M just seems a little on the short side, although he led in both Flem wins he is more a take time to balance and take a sit horse and just wonder if the scamper over the tight 1000M MV is really his go – especially up against a lot of 1000M specialists - which he is probably is not. Prefer track to be on the firmer side of dead too. Just prefer to pass over him today. Passing. 6-IT'S CRUNCH TIME is another 1000M specialist with a smart wining strike rate. Used to jump and race on speed early in his career, but tends to drop back and run home these days. Excellent MV and 1000M record and unbeaten in two tries this trip and distance. Drawn out so can drop back and run on here and they will probably run along, but is meeting a pretty smart field at level weights which is going to make it tough. Passing. 7-DURNFORD is a smart, lightly raced stayer who will probably go onto better things this spring, but hard to see him figuring in a 1000M scamper around MV 1st up. Drops well back over 2000M – let alone over 1000M. No 8-CANALI is a jump and run leader and 1000M specialist who hasn’t shown his best form in quite a while. Fitter for the 2 runs in and straight out doesn’t handle it wet – definitely wants a firm track better side of dead and is unlikely to get that. On his best form would be a real chance in this, but had the full medical top to toe after last start so is hard to get enthused. Wait till he shows some form again. No Summary: Very even field of sprinters here and really most of these have some winning chance. MV, 1000M is always such a mad scamper, and really like horses that get a clean lead, or those that can sit on the speed, but outside horses so they can move into the race at the right time just before the bend. The speed here looks to be pretty fast, 2-ADEBISI, 8-CANALI, 11-GOLDEN SUNSHINE all like to go forward, and the (2) and (11) have drawn outside barriers here, and the 1-GENERAL TRUCE, 9-POCKET ROCKETS, 10-CHOSEN TO FLY can all sit handy and run into the race at the right time if the leaders knock each other over. We are going to push for 1-GENERAL TRUCE here, is 1st up, but very consistent and reliable and is competitive in pretty much everything he goes around in – and keeps starting over the odds. Just think he will get the run of the race from barrier 7 and hook out and run into the race at the right time. Not much between him and the 9-POCKET ROCKETS who looks really good value in this, racing in great form, race fit and again sitting off the speed from a middle barrier. The class horse the 4-COMMANDING JEWEL the other obvious danger, just a matter of her getting into clear room here from the inside barrier over 1000M and not sure if she is going to start short or not. Quite happy to back the (1) and the (9) straight out though and think they represent value in a pretty even field. One to risk: 5-ADAMANTIUM 7th W=$3.60 Roughie: 9-POCKET ROCKETS The Key: 1000M specialist RESULTS: Summed up the way the race would be run pretty well - just picked the wrong horses. A bunch of horses swoop over the top of them in the last 50 M, and the 3-BROKEN wins again, ridden more forward today, and again getting out to way over the odds. Stacks of good runs, but still really like the effort of 9-POCKET ROCKETS who was well back and came with an amazing flying finish that would have seen him winning in a few more strides. |
|