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| MOONEE VALLEY : MOONEE VALLEY - 25th Aug 2012 |
| Track: SLOW(6) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 4M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): The sun briefly popped up for a special guest appearance during the week in Melbourne – for all of about 35 mins before the standard rain and hail set back in. Still more showers forecast going into the weekend so again expect a genuine slow tending towards heavy track come race day. With showers forecast again for race day we are likely to get a genuine bog track again like we did last week. Moonee Valley had a few months off racing recently for a bit of a freshen, but it appears that the Strath Ayr track is starting to show its age and not sure how the Botox is going to work in the medium term to keep its youthful all weather appearance. Last meeting here, rail TRUE was a standard MV rail true meeting – close to impossible to win on the speed and most of the winners came swooping off the camber on the home turn. Rail goes out to 4M here – and it is pretty standard rule that when the rail goes out at MV – you get on the leaders and on pacers. Note that this meeting last year strongly favoured leaders and on pacers – and those that trail the corner on the rails and get the split. So barriers and position in running likely to be vital today and punt accordingly. Be very wary of backing anything that needs to run on unless the early pattern shows otherwise – which is unlikely. RESULTS : Track actually races pretty fairly - they can win from behind or swooping on the bend - which is unusual for the rail out. Drying day and track ends up better side of slow. Tips go along OK, but hard luck tale in the main race where the form preview was spot on but we lose the trifecta on protest. Frustrating day on the tips with two short priced winners on top, but 3 close seconds and a first post the post relegated on protest. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 8-DELEGANCE $5EW X QUINELLA : Race 2: 8-DELEGANCE - 2-DRAW FORWARD x $2.50 X 2nd 2-DRAW FORWARD W=$3.40 QUINELLA : Race 2: 8-DELEGANCE - 5-BARBIE’S BOMBSHELL x $2.50 X Lightly raced one who has shown some ability, mainly down the Flem straight. Fitter for the 2 runs in and the 1st up run was full of promise, then struck a serious bog track at Sandown when not very far away. Drawn middle here but should go forward and sit on the speed which is probably where you want to be. Probably doesn’t want a genuine heavy track and 1200M is probably as far as she wants, but around MV, 1200M, track likely to favour on pacers looks a solid each way bet at around $8. Save with quinellas on the other two on pacers the (2) and the (5) being the main dangers. RESULTS : Pretty disappointing run - goes back at the beginning when cops a check, and never looked good and never really improves from there. Much better ridden forward and run is very out of character. BEST WIN : Race 4: 7-SHINY BUTTONS, 9-MIN RIVER $5 WIN 2nd 7-SHINY BUTTONS W=$4.20 These two look the ones with the most upside in the staying race. The (7) has been racing extremely well, out to the 2500M for the first time, but chased home hard last start. Just probably wants to settle a bit closer to the speed today. The (9) has been racing well and looks to get a soft lead here and she looks the type who just wants to roll in front unchallenged – if that happens she might be hard to run down. Back both of them to win at around $5 and $10 RESULTS : Chases hard, honest as always and looks the winner till ones darts through the field with a suprising finshing burst. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 3-UNANIMOUSLY $7.50 EW 3rd W=$4.60, P=$1.70 = $12.75 (1st past the post) Really good run by this one last start, caught wide on a furious speed and stuck on well. Fitter for the 2 runs in, handles it wet and should lob on the speed again from nice barrier and put himself into the finish. Looks a nice each way bet at around $9 in a tough open field. RESULTS : Gets very well backed and looks the winner a long way out - cruising on the inside of the leader. Kicks for home on the turn and looks home......and.....then suddenly drifts out for no reason. First past the post - but loses the race on protest. Probably still wins if he goes straight even with the 2nd horse coming home. Tough luck. BEST ROUGH : Race 3: 8-BOUGGIE DANZER $2 WIN, $3 PLACE SCR $5 Short priced favourite in this race the (2) probably wins, but suspect the margin last start was a bit flattering and it is likely to start very, very short indeed. This one is fitter for the 3 runs in, handles it wet and has run on strongly last 2 starts and should be ready to improve again today with the 2000M run this time in. Worth a little interest bet at the $25 or so on offer. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 7 : 10-EXCLUDED at around $2.70 1st W=$2.70 We have made this one Lay of the Day before and he went oh-so-close to stinging us on Melbourne Cup Day when only just beaten. But we are stupid enough to try our luck again. First up run was excellent when got well back and coming on strongly late. Sure to get well backed here – and as we often mention, these Williams stable runners often start at incredibly stupidly short odds on the tote. 2nd up, tight MV 1500M in a race with not much speed, good chance he will drop too far back and run on too late again. Regardless of that, has now been beaten $3.90 fav, $3.50 fav, $1.80 fav and $1.75 fav in 4 of his last 5 runs so bit hard to back with any confidence – so let’s lay instead ! RESULTS : Ridden more forward is a big plus for this one, and turns out they could actually run on OK, and coming off the protest disaster in the previous race the Lay of The Day was pretty much a good thing to get up and belt us one. Happy Punting. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA : Race 6 : 3,10(scr) / 3,6(scr),8,10(scr),13,14,15 / 3,8,10(scr),14,15 x $5 = 12.5% SCR $4 3rd 3-UNANIMOUSLY W=$4.60 / 1st 8-BROKEN W=$14.00 / 2nd 15-UMGETON W=$22.80 There should be a decent trifecta in the main race in an even field. So let’s take a trifecta with the two main chances to win, the (3) and the (10), and the trick here is that the on pacers are most likely to drop into the placings – that’s the (8),(14),(15) at odds. Note that the (14) and (15) are emergencies though. So go wide for 2nd placing cause something will probably fly from behind and be unlucky and hope the on pacers stick on for third. That’s the $5 theory anyway for this week. RESULTS : Punting Hard Luck Story # 41,342. Seriously unlucky here. Trifecta is torn apart by scratchings, but the 3-UNANIMOUSLY is first past the post from the 8-BROKEN and the 15-UMGETON, meaning we have landed the $993 trifecta for the fraction (assuming you didn't increase the fraction with the scratchings). The $5 trifecta theory is spot on - but we lose the lot on a protest which was always going to be upheld when the (3) shifted out suddenly near the post. Tough cookies. Ironcially, the (8) was the third selection in the tips anyway, so if you elevated it to replace the scratchings then you collected the revised $2187 trifecta anyway. And a few smart cokies out there were clever enough to do just that. Seems so obvious in hindsight. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $21.75 NET : $-28.25 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 6-COMMANDING JEWEL, 2-FANDOM, 3-FLYING HOSTESS Race 2: 8-DELEGANCE, 2-DRAW FORWARD, 5-BARBIE’S BOMBSHELL Race 3: 2-STORM BURST, 8-BOUGGIE DANZER, 6-CIRCLE THE GLOBE Race 4: 7-SHINY BUTTONS, 9-MIN RIVER, 3-CRABS Race 5: 6-DOMINANT, 2-RUSAMBO, 3-MAURY Race 6: 3-UNANIMOUSLY, 10-AFRICAN PULSE, 8-BROKEN Race 7: 11-VALEDICTORIAN, 6-PHILDA, 12-GURU BOB Race 8: 11-LIVIGNO, 6-TOKUGAWA, 10-RORKE’S DRIFT |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-COMMANDING JEWEL 1st W=$1.90 2-FANDOM 3-FLYING HOSTESS 2nd W=$11.50 Quinella : $10.00 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-DELEGANCE 2-DRAW FORWARD 2nd W=$3.40 5-BARBIE’S BOMBSHELL |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-STORM BURST 1st W=$1.60 8-BOUGGIE DANZER SCR 6-CIRCLE THE GLOBE SCR |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-SHINY BUTTONS 2nd W=$4.20 9-MIN RIVER 3-CRABS |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-DOMINANT 2nd W=$6.70 2-RUSAMBO 1st W=$5.50 3-MAURY Quinella : $20.70 *** nice value quinella *** |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-UNANIMOUSLY 3rd W=$4.60 10-AFRICAN PULSE SCR 8-BROKEN 1st W=$14.00 *** value winner in the main race *** |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-VALEDICTORIAN 6-PHILDA 2nd W=$4.40 12-GURU BOB |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-LIVIGNO 2nd W=$4.70 6-TOKUGAWA 3rd W=$5.40 10-RORKE’S DRIFT |
| RACE 6: CARLYON STAKES 1000M LISTED |
| Tips: 3-UNANIMOUSLY 3rd W=$4.60 10-AFRICAN PULSE SCR 8-BROKEN 1st W=$14.00 |
| Others: 13, 6, 15 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 3-UNANIMOUSLY, 10-AFRICAN PULSE, 11-ONE LAST DANCE Handy : 8-BROKEN, 14-VATICAN (emerg), 15-UMGETON (emerg) Back : 1-ATOMIC FORCE, 2-ANABANDANA, 4-ROCKING FORCE, 5-HIGHLY TOXIC, 6-GREEN BIRDIE, 7-VEEWAP, 9-BERRINGAMA, 12-ALL FRIARED UP, 13-ROYAL BENDER Chances: 3-UNANIMOUSLY is a handy sprinter who keeps up a good win / place strike rate. Good 1000M record and you so often want 1000M specialists in these races. Fitter for the 2 runs in and should be right at peak now, and effort here last start was excellent – there was a fierce pace and all the on pacers knocked each other over – but this one raced widest on pace and stuck on well. Huge effort. Did have an apprentice claim that day though. Jump and run type who should put himself on pace which is where you probably want to be today. Wet track form is actually OK – defeats on slow and heavy tracks have often been by small margins only. Looks ideally placed here, in form and plenty of like about last run. Strong chance. 3rd W=$4.60 8-BROKEN is a honest sprinter who is a 1000M specialist – and that is probably what you want here. 1000M form is excellent – definitely specialises in this distance. Solid run here last start in a very competitive race (when did have apprentice claim) and got perfect sit behind fast speed. Wet track form is solid. Should jump and run and put himself into a handy position here. Up against some smart up and coming sprinters here so the class is probably the test but think this one is a bit under rated – always thereabouts and so often in the finish. Chance. 1st W=$14.00 10-AFRICAN PULSE is a smart young sprinter on the way up and looks better than these under this weight scale. Going through his classes now, but has contested feature Group 1 sprints and has not been disgraced. No issue with heavy track last start at Flem when jumped and led and was a class win down the straight. Drawn wide here – so is going to have to be used up early and go forward – but unlikely to get to the rails so will have to hope that they can win sitting on the speed out wide. Solid wet track form, only beaten once in 5 starts over 1000M and class sprinter on the rise. Barrier is really the only question here – drawn inside he is probably a good thing, drawn wide there is likely to be some pressure up front here and he is going to have to sit out wide in space - but still think he is the one to beat here. Really comes down to the odds on offer and considering the barrier think you would probably want $3.50 to $4.00, anything else is too short. One to beat. SCR 13-ROYAL BENDER is another with good form, good 1000M form and proven on wet ground. Really solid run in the Monash Stakes when really only just beaten and could have easily stuck her head out at the right stage and pinched that race. Seems to be racing in best form of career. Drawn out and will drop back and really hard to win over MV 1000M coming from behind with the rail out. MV record is not the best. If the track is racing fairly still wouldn’t rule this one out – really liked last run and seems nicely weighted here at the bottom of the weights, but in the real world dropping back over MV 1000M is likely to be an issue so rough chance only. Rough. Place: 1-ATOMIC FORCE is a tough old sprinter who is a class above most of these, but is weighted accordingly. Proven in slow to heavy ground is a really big plus here as we are likely to get a deteriorating track. Won a recent barrier trial so should be ready to do something here fresh 1st up. Ultra consistent performer who is just about always in the finish. Most of his best form has been past 1000M though - he normally sits handy, but just wonder if 1st up over 1000M he will probably get back and whether that is going to be his undoing, especially if the track favours on pacers. Worth looking back at his McEwen run here last Sept over 1000M– behind two smart sprinters and he was driving at the line that day, but just gave them too much of a head start. Likely to be in the finish, but prefer place and suspect he will be coming on a bit too late. Place. 4th W=$3.30 4-ROCKING FORCE is a old timer talented sprinter who is one of our favourites after he got us out of a nasty scrape last Oaks Day with a value win. 1000M and MV record is good. Wet track form is OK – probably not really at this best once tracks get worse side of slow. Fresh form is pretty good too so can’t really rule him out here 1st up. Worth noting that last spring campaign he was unlucky not to win over 955M here 1st up under lights when finishing very hard indeed. Drawn out suits this one, as he probably drops back 1st up over 1000M here against these – and that is going to be the issue – whether they are running on or not. Likely to be giving some of these a start so probably prefer place chance at this stage. Place. 6-GREEN BIRDIE is a talented sprinter who doesn’t seem to be quite running at his best at the moment. 1st up run was excellent when badly held up for runs for most of the straight and looked like he would go on with it this spring. But last two runs have only been fair – he has been competitive both times, and probably ridden forward both times where he may be better ridden cold and running on. Looks well weighted here. Likely to drop back from outside barrier and try to scoot around them so again it really comes down to the racing pattern. May be that he is not really handling the wet tracks either. Will probably run OK and think his form is probably better than what it reads but again drop back, outside barrier, around MV 1000M really is a task before they even jump. Very rough only. 11-ONE LAST DANCE is a smart Moody sprinter who had support first up and pulled up lame in a disappointing performance. Was on the inside that day too on a track that was favouring those runners on – looked a spectacularly bad bet before the race so surprising to see it so well backed. Really hard to read here – obviously had been going OK on the track to get support 1st up, and on best form would be a genuine chance here. Drawn inside and likely to go forward which is a big plus. Just a matter of whether she has recovered from what ever issues she had last time. Yet to strike a genuine wet track. Watch market – likely to get support again – just hard to go betting on unknowns. On best is a chance here, but hard to back with confidence. Rough only. 14-VATICAN (emerg) is a 1000M specialist who can be a bit tough to catch – had plenty of chances plenty of times. Drawn inside and likely to lead along rails here which will be a big plus. Doesn’t win out of turn though and safely held down the straight last time. Goes OK on wet ground so maybe a rough place chance if the track is strongly favouring those on rails on pace (which is quite likely). Place. 15-UMGETON (emerg) is a lightly raced one who has only had the one run since last year so probably had a few issues. On pacer with good MV record and she goes along OK. Again just this race seems to have come up quite strong this year. Largely unknown on wet ground. Probably prefer to see 1st up, but again rough place chance rolling on speed if the track is playing that way. Rough place. 2nd W=$22.80 Sacking: 2-ANABANDANA is a lightly raced NZ mare who showed some ability during her two runs during the Autumn in Melbourne. Yet to strike a slow or heavy track so total unknown in the going. Recent barrier trial winner so should be forward for this. Again best form is past 1000M and looks decently weighted with 58kgs in this. Suspect she will be giving these a start 1st up over the short trip, and that is asking for trouble around the MV 1000M. Watch for betting moves, but prefer to risk at this stage. No 5-HIGHLY TOXIC is a WA sprinter – you do wonder if there are any sprinters left over there they all seem to have come east. Must have been a cheap deal going on Jetstar for horsie holidays during spring. Yet to strike a track that has even a drop of rain on it so impossible to guess how he is going to go on a Melbourne MV bog. Drawn inside barrier, unlikely to kick forward and lead and will get cluttered up back in the field. Watch betting market but happy to let this one run. No 7-VEEWAP is an average 1400M horse who is 1st up over the 1000M here and has OK form fresh earlier in his career. Last couple of preparations has got back and run on 1st up and that is likely to happen again here. Recent racing has got back and needed speed on and been very one paced over 1400M, so likely to find the 1000M too short here. No 9-BERRINGAMA is coming off a long lay off so has probably had some injury issues. Won 1st up at Caulfield over 1400M back in spring 2010, but 1st up here over 1000M coming off a long lay off and drawn barrier 1 is likely to drop back and need a lot of luck. Bit of a query on wet ground and prefer others. No 12-ALL FRIARED UP is a leading contender for the worse word play on your sire’s name award. Although we always had a soft spot for PIRATE’S JEUNEY. Lightly raced, good win strike rate and good 1000M record. Another WA sprinter come east to chase riches, but has struck a pretty strong field here. Drawn out and likely to drop back, not really proven on wet ground and prefer to let run. No Summary: This race seems to have come up quite strong this year – there is a fair bit of depth in this field, some proven class sprinters and some up and comers with heaps of potential. Makes for a very interesting race and this race is normally a bit lack lustre. Most important thing here is going to be how this track races – and sorry to harp on and on and on, but so often MV rail out it is a strong racing pattern of the leader or the horse that tracks through against the rails. Even when there is not a strong bias, trying to win from behind over a tight turning MV 1000M really is a big ask – you want to get clear running out wide and get a clear crack at them. Pace here should be even to fast for a 1000M scamper - 3-UNANIMOUSLY is well drawn to go forward, 10-AFRICAN PULSE probably won’t be able to cross from an outside barrier, but will at least sit in clear space on the speed and 11-ONE LAST DANCE should shoot through again on the rails. 8-BROKEN, 14-VATICAN (emerg), 15-UMGETON (emerg) will all race handy and good chance one of these later three will pop into the placings at odds with the perfect on pace sit if you are taking trifectas. Good value trifecta race actually. Happy to stick with the 3-UNANIMOUSLY as the top pick here, just seems to offer better value each way than the favourite and go back and watch the run here last start – wide all the way and still stuck on well in the straight. Really strong run and happy to be on at each way odds today. 10-AFRICAN PULSE definitely the one to beat and does have the class to over come the wide barrier – really just comes down to value at odds on offer. 8-BROKEN should get a good on pace trail and seems a little under rated and likely to start over the odds again for a value third pick. Not a bad betting race here and chance to pick up a value trifecta based around the on pacers. One to risk: 2-ANABANDANA 8th W=$10.70 Roughie: 15-UMGETON (emerg) 2nd W=$22.80 The Key: 1000M, rail out MV – can they run on or not ? RESULTS : Preview is spot on with top pick and each way bet of the day first past the post. Which looked clever about 100M from home, but not so clever when it suddenly veered out and hampered the 3rd horse - and there was no hope at all in the protest. Value winner in third selection 8-BROKEN and the roughie 15-UMGETON runs well, so all over a value trifecta which was a nice collect for all of 5 minutes till the protest siren sounded. Good run 1-ATOMIC FORCE who just finds the 1000M around MV a little short, and tough 1st up run from 15-UMGETON so keep following. |
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