|MOONEE VALLEY: MOONEE VALLEY CUP - FRIDAY 27TH OCTOBER 2023|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Quick form for the Friday night MV meeting. Sunny day and this track should firm up and good chance there will be a leader’s bias so be ready to take advantage of it. Amazing that there are 18 races across Friday and Saturday and the fields are so small and there is really very little to bet on for the value punter.
Reminder that at the moment for Spring Campaign 2023 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post. Cox Plate runner by runner preview will be posted later tonight with full form available tomorrow morning.
BEST WIN: Race 2: 7-DELICIOUS TYCOON $7 WIN
Small field and to be honest most of these are non-winners (looking at you 1-REGARDSMAREE), you would assume this one runs to a clear and easy lead here and has been racing consistently, so will be up to one of the non-winners to get in front of her. Back straight out at around $4.50
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 2-RATTLE AND BANG $4 EW
This one looked great before last start at Caulfield, really on toes and ready to pounce and ran accordingly at odds. Does prefer it wet, but hoping they can jump and go forward here and maybe upset the short priced favourite at around $7.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 8-RED SUN SENSATION $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 8-RED SUN SENSATION, 5-AIN’TNODEELDUN, 1-BANK MAUR boxed x $6 = 200%
Really not sure how many of these are going , especially the ones dropping back in distance and this one is fitter for the two runs in and looks ready to win now and one on the way up. Would want a forward ride (and note that the JRA Cup is more often than not won by the leader), but back each way at around $8 and looks a good value quinella here with the 5-AIN’TNODEELDUN who is flying but may drop back in the run and expect improvement from the 1-BANK MAUR at odds here leading and dropping back in class.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 6-TITLE FIGHTER $2.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 1: 8-REVALENE, 6-TITLE FIGHTER, 3-CROATIAN BELLE boxed x $3 = 100%
Led all the way here to win at first race start on a leader biased track so may do the same if the pattern allows at around $13. Box up a quinella with the hard to beat favourite the 8-REVALENE who fought it out with a pretty talented one last start, and suspect the 3-CROATIAN BELLE does something tonight in a suitable race.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 5-MYSWEETMOSES $3 EW
Talented sprinter with a strong finish who chased hard last start but the leader had pinched the race controlling the tempo. Drawn out in clear running, but will need them to be able to win running on and there probably isn’t that much speed here. Some rough chance at around $15.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 3-PORT ALBERT at around $2.60
Been racing well, but this is a pretty even field and has drawn wide and likely to be caught wide on speed. First try over the 1200M and just doesn’t seem value considering the barrier in an even field of sprinters.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a MV apartment.
TRIFECTA: Race 7: 3,14 / 1,3,7,11,14 / 1,2,3,7,11,12,14 x $5 = 12.5%
The MV Cup is about the only decent race on the program tonight from a value point of view, with a full field and a wide betting market. One of the two favourites probably wins, 14-LUNAR FLARE or 3-VOW AND DECLARE as the more genuine stayers than most of these and in a big field wondering if the 1-KNIGHTS ORDER (leading) runs an improved race at odds, or the 11-SHERAZ (forgive the last run) for a decent trifecta collect.
Races 5,6,7,8: 3,5,6,7 / 1,5,8 / 3,14 / 4,7,10,11 x $20 = 20.83%
Unlikely to be much of a quaddie dividend tonight, but hope for an upset in the first leg, some value in the second leg, actually go confident in the biggest field of the night with the 14-LUNAR FLARE or 3-VOW AND DECLARE and hope for some silly tactics in the last race to cause a strange result.
Feature Race Preview:
Big field for the Moonee Valley Cup in its new Friday night timeslot, and it’s a big field of stayers with pretty ordinary form and most of these are going nowhere. Speed should come from the 1-KNIGHTS ORDER leading and expecting improvement at odds from that one, they have said they intend to ride the 7-FUTURE HISTORY more quietly, but suspect he ends up forward regardless, and the 5-FANCY MAN probably comes across, but there is not much speed here at all. Those caught back on the rails here might struggle in a big field of slow stayers. The 14-LUNAR FLARE looks the one to beat, excellent form in this race and astounding run in the Turnbull and looks ready to produce this spring out to a staying trip, maybe just needs an alert ride here from the jockey to settle a bit more forward than usual. The main danger is the 3-VOW AND DECLARE who loves rolling forward on dry ground off a really good run last start and the 7-FUTURE HISTORY is racing well, just unsure about the riding tactics here from an outside barrier. Really the top two should fight this race out and are going better than the rest of this field.
Race 1: 8-REVALENE, 6-TITLE FIGHTER, 3-CROATIAN BELLE
Race 2: 7-DELICIOUS TYCOON, 1-REGARDSMAREE, 4-IMA SHELBY
Race 3: 9-RICH LOVER, 5-MYSWEETMOSES, 6-SASQUALAH
Race 4: 2-RATTLE AND BANG, 6-FRILLED, 5-FISSION
Race 5: 3-SHE DANCES, 6-SEMILLION, 5-RANTING
Race 6: 8-RED SUN SENSATION, 5-AIN’TNODEELDUN, 1-BANK MAUR
Race 7: 14-LUNAR FLARE, 3-VOW AND DECLARE, 7-FUTURE HISTORY
Race 8: 4-SIRIUS BLACK, 10-RIVERINA CYCLONE, 11-KWOI HOI