Final night meeting before the Moonee Valley development, and what are the chances we get a dynamite leaders track just for the nostalgia value? Just a few showers around and last few years on firm tracks the racing pattern has strongly favoured those on-speed on fresh ground protected for the big finale weekend. Pretty sure we are going to get an on-speed pattern tonight so watch the first few races and adjust bets accordingly. Interesting that Race 6 is over the 1496m instead of the normal 1500M after there being issues with the 1500M start. Treading lightly on the punt, but looking for on-speed horses at each way odds.
For Spring Campaign 2025 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). No feature race preview at the bottom of this post, Cox Plate preview will be posted after this meeting.
BEST WIN: Race 4: 4-CAPPER THIRTYNINE $6 WIN
One we do follow and he has been racing really well this preparation and deserves a win. Been right in the finish every start this time in, just struggles to run out the 1400M and last start here at MV he had to be used up early to go forward, kicked before the turn and tired late. Drawn inside today the key and can go forward and lead here, there is some pressure up front but think on-speed and on rails will be advantaged and he may just keep going tonight. Back straight out at around $5.
BEST WIN: Race 8: 5-HE’LL RIP $5 WIN, QUINELLA 5-HE’LL RIP#9-NATION’S CALL, 12-INNCOURT x $2 = 200%
Very consistent type who is racing really well and everything fell into place last start at Flemington. He has a great turn of foot and can ping off the turn here at MV, but can finish on his run at the end of 1600M. Small field but should be a genuine speed and he can sit just behind them here and dash for home and he is racing better than most of these. Back straight out at around $5 and anchor in a quinella with the 9-NATION’S CALL who looks ready to do something on-speed off the two runs in and the in-form Sydney visitor the 12-INNCOURT.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 10-ACTA NON VERBA $4 EW
Small field, this one is the likely leader and a firm track on-speed here is a big plus. Up against a lot of backmarkers here and they may let those up front get away with controlling the race. Will give a good kick on the turn, just needs to run out the last part of the distance and fully admit he can fade late. Each way at around $10.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 8-GRAND PIERRO $5 EW, QUINELLA 3,8,11,13 boxed x $3 = 50%
We keep backing and tipping this one and no idea why he keeps going around at such good value for. Always takes a few runs in and out to distance to find his form, but loves firm tracks and he has a good turn of foot so he can take inside runs. Running into form in a strong form race at Caulfield and then was making ground along the inside at Flemington last start, and got blocked badly for runs and should have finished a lot closer. Fitter for the run over 2500M and pretty keen to have an each way bet here - $13 is crazy odds for this one. Also take a value box quinella with the 3-SMOKIN’ ROMANS leading and tough to run down, the consistent 11-BERKSHIRE BREEZE and the 13-SCARY as best roughie who is racing OK and just needs a solid tempo to run on off.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 10-SAXON BEAUTY $2 EW, QUINELLA 5,10,11,14 boxed x $3 = 50%
Again just shamelessly backing leaders here, this one is racing in great form and won or placed 6 of 8 last starts. Gave a good kick in a feature race at Cranbourne last start, 3kgs apprentice claim here brings a fit in-form leader under the limit and that is always a dangerous winning combination. Little something each way at around $14 and box up a value quinella with the ready to win but way too short 5-AMLETO, the on-speed 11-FAREWELL TO EIRE, and the value roughie in the 14-SIDE PIECE.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 13-FILEETA $2 EW
The 955m races are always pretty tricky and we just can’t go backing short priced favourites, a lot comes down to luck and landing in clear running space. This one is drawn in clear running, has placed 3 from 5 at MV and will sit behind what looks a pretty furious speed here and run into the race at the right time at around $34. Looks good value in a big even field.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 8-YACHIYO at around $4
Was going really well earlier this preparation and then put in a shocker when favourite at Flemington last start when something obviously not right. There are a few others in this field who are going along OK and just prefer to see this one again before getting on.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a nearby hotel room to roll on into tomorrow.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 2: 2-CAVLARY GIRL
PLACE Race 3: 10-SAXON BEAUTY
PLACE Race 4: 4-CAPPER THIRTYNINE
PLACE Race 7: 8-GRAND PIERRO
looking at around $250 for a $5 outlay tending towards those on-speed.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 5,6,7,8 : 1,8,9,11,13 / 1,4,10 / 3,8,11,13 / 5,9,12 x $20 = 11.11%
Quaddie is probably still going to pay OK tonight, even with the small field, trick is finding a value winner in the 955M race where often anything can happen.
Race 1: 4-SISTER SHAY, 2-SAVILLA, 5-A DIVA
Race 2: 4-INVINCIBLE WOMAN, 2-CAVLARY GIRL, 6-SISSTAINABLE
Race 3: 10-SAXON BEAUTY, 11-FAREWELL TO EIRE, 14-SIDE PIECE
Race 4: 4-CAPPER THIRTYNINE, 5-PRINCESS QUE, 2-MYTEMPTATION
Race 5: 1-SHIRSHOV, 11-FIELDELO, 13-FILEETA
Race 6: 10-ACTA NON VERBA, 1-REGAL AZMON, 4-RAIKOKE
Race 7: 8-GRAND PIERRO, 3-SMOKIN’ ROMANS, 11-BERKSHIRE BREEZE
Race 8: 5-HE’LL RIP, 9-NATION’S CALL, 12-INNCOURT
