|CAULFIELD : NATURALISM STAKES - 17th Sept 2016|
|Track: SLOW(7) - Weather: MORE RAIN - Rail: OUT 9M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Absolutely ridiculous punting program on Saturday, with even, capacity fields, a week of torrential rain and the rail out 9M. There is no rain forecast for Friday, but more rain sometime Saturday and even though the track is rated a SLOW(7) think you want do the form for a genuine very wet track.
There will almost certainly be a very distinct racing pattern, expect them to come off the rails after the first few races. With big fields that is going to get quite tricky, those drawn inside barriers will be in the worse going so would want avoid inside barriers, especially later in the day. Those who drop well back might also struggle to get runs if they are all coming wide (and wider). So you want to go through the field and pick things that are drawn out a little, will race midfield or better on the outside of others, and get to the best going first. Easy!
Definitely not a day for a serious bet, so just go wide in box quinellas and doubles with some value runners. We have ended up tipping three emergencies and six runners with double digit saddle cloths. They have done extremely well in Race 10, forming a field of 19 crack horses that we donít have any interest in backing ANY of them.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 7-ROCKETEER $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 7-ROCKETEER#6,8,13 x $3 = 100%
Improving type who was an eye catching run last start at MV when got caught back in the field and the winner went for home, but he come out late and chased hard and should have gone close to winning with a clear run. Big even field here, but drawn a nice middle barrier and should be able to dash to the middle of the track and the best going in the straight. Looks the best each way bet of the program at around $6.50 and expect him to shorten further before race time. Back each way, and take a quinella with some value runners the 8-BENNY GOES BERZERK, 13-KACHING and 6-ODEON.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 15-CHASE THE HORIZON $5 EW
Another big even field, but this one has a good career record and some potential and is down the bottom of the weights. Proven on wet ground, and drawn a middle barrier to sit handy. Just blew the start last time here and ended up much further back then usual and then made really good ground in the straight. Should be fitter for that run and should get the perfect run in the race. Each way at around $6.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 7-ANAPHORA $3 EW
One we do tip a bit too often, and her win strike rate is starting to look a bit ordinary - but think she gets a few things to suit today. Was totally lost down the straight 1st up and then 2nd up here she whipped around the field in a very early run and run out of puff before the line. Fitter for the 2 runs in and will be suited if they are coming out wide and running on. Have something each way at around $17.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 7-MAGNAPAL $3 EW
Solid stayer who is fitter for the 3 runs in and was really good here in the Lawrence Stakes when finishing hard and then just battled away here last start when the first four didnít change position at all in the run home. Gets a weight drop, excellent Caulfield record and think he is much better on a wet track. Drawn out to get to the best going and like that he has had 3 runs in here so much have a fitness edge on some of his rivals. Each way at around $15.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 1-IGGIMACOOL $2.50 EW
Stuck up at the top of the weights and giving weight to 17 other runners isnít ideal, but this one has a touch of class. Found best form over winter and is very capable on wet ground. 1st up run got stuck at the back of the field on the inside at MV and went to the line totally untested. Tricky ride here from barrier 3 and they may have to cut the corner on the home turn if they are coming out wide. Should be flying home again though and has a great finishing burst when right. Each way at around $13.
QUINELLA: Race 3: 2,7,8,11,16 boxed x $5 = 50%
Wide open race and there are plenty of chances at odds, including the 16-VAINGLORIOUS(emerg) in blinkers for the first time, the 8-FROMPARIS WITHLOVE who is looking for distance and a track where they can run on and the 11-LADY SKILLS who will get back and run on. Box them up with the best of the on pacers, the 2-SERENELY DISCREET and the 7-PEEKING DUCK and the quinella should pay pretty well in a big, big field.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 8: 13-TOM MELBOURNE at around $4
Never quite understood the fascination with this horse. Does have a great win strike rate, 5 wins from 9 starts Ė but has also been a beaten short priced favourite 3 times out of 9! Good here 1st up and can dictate the speed here in a race with not much pace, but has drawn inside, they will almost certainly be coming off the rails later in the day and he is going to get stuck in the worse going with 15 horses trying to come around him. Big, even field and just prefer to back something at odds and the $4 looks really poor value. Risking.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 7,8: 4,7 / 4,7,8,14,16 x $5 = 50%
Should be plenty of value in the running double with the big field in the Naturalism. In the first leg the
4-KEEN ARRAY looks the one to beat, but throw the on pacer 7-DAN ZEPHYR in for a value result. In the main race we have already backed the 7-MAGNAPAL at odds, the 16-SECOND BULLET will get a good on speed run in the best going out wide, the 4-REAL LOVE was excellent 1st up, the 8-SET SQUARE is flying and watch out for the other roughie the 14-SWACADELIC finishing on hard and late.
Race 1: 15-CHASE THE HORIZON, 13-SAINT VALOREM, 3-CAPRESE
Race 2: 14-MODERN WONDER, 8-INVINCIBLE JOY, 7-BARTHELONA
Race 3: 16-VAINGLORIOUS(emerg), 8-FROMPARIS WITHLOVE, 2-SERENELY DISCREET, 11-LADY SKILLS
Race 4: 7-ANAPHORA, 1-FRENCH EMOTION, 2-MISS GUNPOWDER
Race 5: 7-ROCKETEER, 8-BENNY GOES BERZERK, 13-KACHING
Race 6: 2-MISS PROMISCUITY, 10-ANDRASSY, 4-SECRET AGENDA
Race 7: 4-KEEN ARRAY, 7-DAN ZEPHYR, 6-SANTA ANA LANE
Race 8: 16-SECOND BULLET, 7-MAGNAPAL, 4-REAL LOVE
Race 9: 17-MOSSíNíDALE (emerg), 1-IGGIMACOOL, 2-HEíS OUR ROKKII, 7-ROUGH JUSTICE
Race 10: 18-WHEATSHEAF FLYER (emerg), 15-MAGIC CONSUL, 4-TARQUIN, 9-PROFIT SHARE