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FLEMINGTON : OAKS DAY - 6th November 2008

Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SHOWER OR TWO - Rail: OUT 5M

Betting Portfolio ($100): Supposed to be a shower or two, but there hasn’t been serious rain in Melbourne since Bart was a boy. Good to see they seem to be preparing the tracks much fairer these days – they do water them so they start off dead in the morning, but they generally dry out pretty quickly and as a result we are seeing good even racing and none of those silly track biases caused by over watering in previous years. And even better – no falling over themselves to please the international runners. Hooray ! Track should end up pretty firm again, and loving it now the jockeys have finally discovered there are actually two sides to the Flemington straight – and yes – you can come along the inside. Been a long while since they split down the straight, and just makes straight racing that much more interesting – instead of everyone climbing over each other in a pack against the outside rail. Not much between inside and outside, but guessing the inside might be faster again. Thing with the outside is that hard against the outside rail isn’t normally any good – so you need to be 2-3 horses in from that. Despite coming off two losing days, we are going to double up today to $100. Not because we are chasing our losses, just a few worth a bet here today, and in particular want to have a decent crack at the quaddie. RESULTS : Doesn't rain - firm track again. Flem track has raced extremely fairly this week and great to see them coming back to the inside down the straight. Inside definitely fastest, seemed that way on Tuesday too - so don't understand why so many persisted on coming down the outside rail. Have to say though, track did play a bit towards leaders, and probably did on Tuesday too. Which is unusual, as normally track wears and favours runners on today. BEST BET : Race 2: 3-INSTRUCTOR $20 WIN SCR $20 From memory stable do have a good record in this race – well, owner has a good record in this race. This one is one the up, fitter for the 2 runs in, finished on pretty well in eye catching run last start. Meets the winner from that race much better on weights here. Drawn well and can race handy if required as has previously – doesn’t need to drop back. Looks a solid bet and hopefully big field will see some decent odds. BEST EACH WAY : Race 6: 5-MISS SCARLATTI $15 EW 2nd W=$12,60, P=$2.90 = 15 x 2.90 = $43.50 Are we playing favourites? Yep. But she is going along really well. Tough rolling on pacer, who has been competitive with the males, unlucky on Sat in the Wakeful and gets the weight drop from that race. Think she clearly beats everything home from that race, just a matter if she can upset the favourite in the Oaks. Around $10 at the moment, probably because of the outside barrier, so will need luck getting across, but if she does, think she is going to go pretty close to winning. Each way. RESULTS : Whilst everyone is still raving about SAMANTHA MISS, personally we are quite taken with this one. What a tough effort ! Had to work from outside barrier, and rolled on the speed as predicted, and stayed on. Tough on pace stayer and think she might go places. Think she was clearly better than the rest of the field, in any other year she would be the dominant 3YO. Stay tuned for more from her. QUINELA : Race 3: 2-KELCONI, 3-MINE GAME x $5 QUINELA : Race 3: 2-KELCONI, 8-TA TA FOR NOW x $5 Most of this field are maidens, do like the way the (2) finished off last start at big odds at MV. The (3) is probably going to start pretty short here, probably too short, so prefer to be on this one. Take quinella with the favourite, and again with the (8), who looks the only on pacer and may stick on. RESULTS : Don't bet in these silly races ! Too many on the way up, no way of knowing who is any good or not. Favourite MINE GAME is definitely over rated. BEST ROUGH : Race 8: 3-HERE DE ANGELS $5 EW This is a horse we just love to knock. Doesn’t handle it wet. Not at best past 1200M. Been knocking and knocking it whilst they tried him over the longer trips, back to a sprint trip today keen to get on board. Best at 1200M or below, think he just struggles to run a strong 1200M down the straight - has ran 5th in both tries. 1100M here today looks ideal. Just not sure how much edge has been taken off him though – would love to see him jump and run like he can, cause if he does, think he wins. RESULTS : Looms, but doesn't give much of a yelp. LAY OF THE DAY : RACE 8 : 1-LUCKY SECRET around $3 FINISHES TAILED OFF at W=$3.80 No money in this, but if you have a BETFAIR account, think this is one is a huge risk and would be keen to lay him as favourite. In this race last year, started even money favourite, pulled up lame on hard track and bled. Very brave of them to come back. His form does look good - but he has considerable top weight, giving weight to quite a few in form ones, and note that his last two races have both been at WFA. Seems to love MV, cause think he needs some give in the ground, and this track could be quite firm again. Might not even like racing down the straight. Huge risk, keen to take him on. RESULTS : LUCKY SECRET starts $3.80 favourite on the Victorian tote, and clear top pick by the majority of newspapers tipsters. Flops. Finishes well back, jockey made mistake of going to slower outside rail (which was another reason to lay it), but we took a clear set against him and ran as badly as predicted. QUADRELLA : (Races 6,7,8,9) FLEXI QUAD : 1,5 / 1,4,9 / 2,3,4,9,10,11(scr) / 2,4,11,12 x $25 = 17.36% 1st 1-SAMANTHA MISS W=$1.90, 2nd 5-MISS SCARLATTI W=$12.60 / - / 2nd 4-HOYSTAR W=$5.50 / 1st 2-ROCKPECKER W=$4.20, 3rd 11-COCNONUT GROVE W=$6.00 Take the favourite and the main danger in the Oaks, and if the fav goes down then we are well and truly on our way. 1,4,9 should give you a decent chance in the 2nd . Load up the 3rd leg down the straight and leave out the favourite, who were are keen to take on. Last leg country cup is usually fairly open, but some value chances down near the bottom of the weights – add more to this leg if you can afford it. RESULTS : Well right in theory anyway. Never in danger in the 1st leg in what was a pretty sure quinella, bomb out in 2nd leg, make the right choice to take on the favourite in the straight race and pick those towards the inside, and never in doubt in the last leg. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more RUNNING DOUBLE : Races 2,3 : 3-INSTRUCTOR / 2-KELCONI x $5 SCR $5 Take the best bet in Race 2 into the top pick in Race 3 who looks over the odds. SPENT : $100 RETURN : $68.50 NET : $-31.50

The Tips: Race 1: 3-TANGO AMIGO’S, 7-WHITEHAVEN GIRL, 5-BEAMING Race 2: 3-INSTRUCTOR, 6-RAEBURN, 19-TESTALUX (emerg), 13-GEYSER PEAK Race 3: 2-KELCONI, 3-MINE GAME, 8-TA TA FOR NOW Race 4: 4-OLONANA, 7-YESTERDAY, 14-MURPHY’S CASH Race 5: 5-MONSIEUR FERAUD, 9-LALETTA, 10-BANKSDALE Race 6: 5-MISS SCARLATTI, 1-SAMANTHA MISS, 9-TOBOUGGIE WOOGIE Race 7: 1-SAREM, 4-BOYS WILL BE BOYS, 9-BID SPOTTER Race 8: 3-HERE DE ANGELS, 9-BISCAYNE BAY, 11-SOARESSA Race 9: 11-COCONUT GROVE, 12-BIG DADDY COOL, 4-MAGICAL PEARL

RACE 1: RESULTS

Tips: 3-TANGO AMIGO’S 7-WHITEHAVEN GIRL 2nd W=$29.10, P=$7.40 *** nice value place getter *** 5-BEAMING 1st W=$4.00 Quinella : $66.40 *** nice quinella too ! ***

RACE 2: RESULTS

Tips: 3-INSTRUCTOR SCR 6-RAEBURN 13-GEYSER PEAK 3rd W=$3.00

RACE 3: RESULTS

Tips: 2-KELCONI 3-MINE GAME 8-TA TA FOR NOW

RACE 4: RESULTS

Tips: 4-OLONANA 7-YESTERDAY 3rd W=$5.50 14-MURPHY’S CASH

RACE 5: RESULTS

Tips: 5-MONSIEUR FERAUD 9-LALETTA 2nd W=$4.00 10-BANKSDALE

RACE 6: RESULTS

Tips: 5-MISS SCARLATTI 2nd W=$12.60 1-SAMANTHA MISS 1st W=$1.90 9-TOBOUGGIE WOOGIE QUINELLA : $10.10

RACE 7: RESULTS

Tips: 1-SAREM 4-BOYS WILL BE BOYS 2nd W=$3.80 9-BID SPOTTER

RACE 8: RESULTS

Tips: 3-HERE DE ANGELS 9-BISCAYNE BAY 11-SOARESSA SCR

RACE 9: RESULTS

Tips: 11-COCONUT GROVE 3rd W=$6.00 12-BIG DADDY COOL 4-MAGICAL PEARL

RACE 6: CROWN OAKS 2500M GROUP 1 3YO F

Tips: 5-MISS SCARLATTI 2nd W=$12.60 1-SAMANTHA MISS 1st W=$1.90 9-TOBOUGGIE WOOGIE QUINELLA : $10.10

Others: 6 Pace: SLOW (AGAIN) Leaders : 8-ESTEE, 12-ROOBLES, 15-LUNAR LIGHTS Handy : 1-SAMANTHA MISS, 2-GLOWLAMP, 3-ROCHA (wide), 5-MISS SCARLATTI (wide), 6-KIMILLSY Back : 4-OVAL AFFAIR, 7-SPARKS FLY, 9-TOBOUGGIE WOOGIE, 10-ARMS WIDE OPEN, 11-THINK MONEY, 13-ALLEZ WONDER, 14-POCO GUSTO, 16-JEUNE DE COEUR, 17-EXPECT TO WIN Chances: 1-SAMANTHA MISS is the raging favourite and it is extremely difficult to see her being beaten. Invincible in Sydney where time and time again had the measure of the other Syd fillies in this race. Then set a fair challenge, 1st time in Melb, 1st time at MV, 1st time in open company into the Cox Plate and acquitted herself pretty well. In Sydney she was coming from behind, good to see she could adapt and race a lot handier in the Cox Plate. Not beaten far at all in that race, and MISS FINLAND came out and won the Oaks on a similar form line. Guess only danger is if they crawl like they did in the Wakeful and she gets jammed on the inside. Suspect she races handy again from good barrier. She doesn’t actually need to stay – the class 3YO filly normally wins this regardless – and the main reason being it’s rarely a solid staying test anyway. Definitely the one to beat. 1st W=$1.90 5-MISS SCARLATTI has been extremely consistent all spring and should give this a serious crack. Took a while to find best – but she obviously wants distance. Rolled on speed and beat the boys at Flem, then loomed up but found one better at Caulfield – that was in open 3YO grade again, and PRE EMINENCE ran extremely well in the Derby and was probably the unlucky runner. Extremely strong form line. Searching for runs the length of the straight here on Sat, and working into it to just miss on the line. Big plus is that she had to give all of these weight in the Wakeful – OK – was only 1 kgs – but still – beat most of them home and meets them better of on weights. Always want to get on the one dropping in weight from the Wakeful. Her form is extremely strong and she looks like a genuine on speed rolling type. Pity about the barrier – outside barrier. Doubt there is going to be much speed on, so she has to go forward, think she is no hope if she doesn’t, but might just be used up that bit. Still, think she is going extremely well, and do not underestimate her – genuine chance of beating the favourite. 2nd W=$12.60 6-KIMILLSY was pretty much the only one to make any ground on Sat in the Wakeful –finished on well. That was against her normal racing pattern – normally she races up on the speed. Actually drew a good barrier on Sat, but still ended up midfield and dropping further back than probably intended. Wonder if they have decided to ride her more quietly ? Drawn a good barrier again here, but surely she would have to go forward ? Hasn’t been any speed in the lead up races, so would be crazy to drop back. Guess have to respect good Wakeful run going into this – rough chance. 9-TOBOUGGIE WOOGIE will have the cutesy name Oaks Day contingent lining up to get on. Had some support in the Wakeful, but didn’t finish on – but was well back and race was leader dominated. Unlucky both at MV and Flem before that, and stable is going very well. She might improve over the distance, and given a genuine chance to run on. Drawn out, will drop back, probably finish on OK. Probably represents the unknown factor in this. Rough chance. Place: 2-GLOWLAMP is being thereabouts in the lead up races and worthy of thought. Effort in the Thousand Guineas was good when slow pace probably did not suit and was slowly closing on the line. Then not beaten far in the Wakeful either – again just sticking on OK . Barely anything between most of these and she looks like she wants the distance. Can race handy, but is drawn wide, so interesting to see what they do. Don’t think there is going to be much speed here, so no reason why she can’t go forward. Had every chance last two though, and not been good enough, so can’t see her winning. Place chance. 8-ESTEE is a cheeky front runner who seems to be on the up. Was struggling for form early in her preparation, then it all started to click at Caulfield when she got a soft lead and won easily. Led pretty much as she liked again in the Wakeful, and not beaten that far. Pretty much identical field – so probably gets own way in front again. Thing is she doesn’t really bowl along in front – she actually does the opposite – goes to the lead and then crawls. Not sure if she will be able to get away with those tactics today. Don’t think leaders have a very good record in this race – normally the class horses that win it are runners on, and usually track plays towards swoopers on this day anyway. Can’t remember a leader ever winning this race ? She will probably kick and look the winner at the top of the straight, but we prefer a few others – place only. 11-THINK MONEY is still a maiden, on equal weights against the (1) who is a multiple group winner. Looked like was going to suddenly put it all together at the right time of the year of Caulfield when very eye catching run – sticking close to rails and making lots of ground, and form from that race has held up in previous years. Interesting to note would still meet the (8) 2kgs worse on weights, and was well beaten from that run. Then did nothing in Wakeful when slow pace would not have suited again. On Caulf run, and on the improve you would think she could be a factor here – just wonder if that run was flattering – she cut the corner, hard against the rails which was the place to be early on that meeting. Will drop back , unlikely to be much speed, and think the (1) and the (5) are class on pace fillies – doubt she can come from behind them and win. Place at best. 4th W=$12.50 14-POCO GUSTO drops a long way out of her ground, and failed to show anything against these in the Wakeful or at Caulfield before that. Though it must be said, she is a drop back filly and both those races were leader dominated. Cut the corner on Sat and did have every chance to run no. Country form before that actually looks good – and you would’ve thought she was one on the way up. She might suddenly improve here – think she is probably the silly value runner to put in for your Trifectas and First fours. Sacking: 3-ROCHA came out an won the Wakeful on Saturday at odds, and that is the normal form line to follow going into this. Did race forward that day, and suited by the lack of speed, meant nothing made ground at all. Not far behind these at Caulfield before that, and probably should’ve won at MV start before that when took a while to get inside run. Does meet the (5) 1kgs worse off from Sat, and do think the other one should’ve won. Drawn quite wide here is a real disadvantage, guessing they want to go forward seeing it worked the other day, but likely to get caught wide. Normally you should back the Wakeful winner strongly and confidently into the Oaks, but actually, think we might take her on. Think she got everything to go her way on Sat, and that probably doesn’t happen today. Risking. 4-OVAL AFFAIR has been a frustrating filly to follow, keeps running on like she is going to do something, but it’s only for very well beaten 5ths and 6ths. Always looked like she is going to produce over distance – but yet to do so. She did peel out on Sat and look like she was going to finish it off – slow pace obviously did not suit, but still didn’t produce. Thousand Guineas run was actually good when in change of tactics was ridden forward, and don’t think she liked being inside runners – dropped back and running on down the middle is her game. Drawn outside, drops well back and will try to run on down middle of track. She just isn’t doing enough for us. No 7-SPARKS FLY has always looked like she wants distance. Run here in Edward Manifold was good when was plugging away, and had to switch runs. Then trapped 3 wide most of the way in Thousand Guineas and stuck on OK. Not beaten all that far in Wakeful either, but think she has had her chances – had every chance to produce last 3 runs, she has been in a winning position and not produced, so doubt she is good enough. No 10-ARMS WIDE OPEN had a six week break before last two runs, so probably a little improvement to come. Didn’t show much in Thousand Guineas, nor in Wakeful when had a little support. Drop back type who is not showing any form. Then again slow pace in Wakeful meant she had no chance. Funny thing is – trainer actually has pretty high opinion of her. But we cannot get interested till she show some form. No 12-ROOBLES is a maiden who got beaten in a fairly weak race at MV, before that just OK at Caulfield. She is well drawn and does race on speed, so main interest with her is she might put a little bit more speed into this race. MV night run was actually pretty good – tough on pace effort and she stuck on well – but was getting a considerable weight pull from her rivals that night. Don’t think she is good enough. No 13-ALLEZ WONDER has yet to even run a place ! Actually does seem to be on the improve though – not beaten that far in the Wakeful when made a little ground, and not that far behind these at Caulfield start before that. Drawn wide, can race handy, but guessing they probably drop back. Does seem to be on the improve, so might run a forward race, but don’t think she is quite ready for this. No 3rd W=$18.40 15-LUNAR LIGHTS is coming through the Geelong Classic, which provided the Derby winner, which was an upset. The Oaks and Derby winners both coming from that race could only be a sign of global upheaval beyond imagination. Unlikely. She drew wide at Geelong, so didn’t go forward – normally races forward. At least she might put a little more speed into the race. Passing 16-JEUNE DE COEUR was well held at Sale last start, and by the (14) a few starts back and looks outclassed in this. 17-EXPECT TO WIN (emerg) is still a maiden who didn’t give yelp against these at Caulfield . No Summary: So far this spring, it’s been a $50 winner in the Caulfield Cup, $100 winner in the Derby and $40 winner in the Melbourne Cup. Normally no surprises in this race - the class 3YO filly usually keeps on going, and you often get a short priced winner in the Oaks. It’s a favourites race – and easy to see why – all these 3YO fillies keep running against each other, week after week, so the form does not change. Whilst we did have an upset in the Derby on Saturday, think an upset here isn’t likely. The Derby turned into a genuine staying test – it’s rare that this race does, hence the class 3YO fillies can win it even if they don’t stay. Normally, Wakeful is the form line to pay attention to, 15 of the last 20 Oaks winners have come through the Wakeful, 9 of those have won the Wakeful and this race. Last two years the Wakeful has been run at a ridiculous pace – as in ridiculously slow. They absolutely crawled on Sat which can make the form a bit misleading. Suspect the pace here will just be even, but won’t be the muddling crawl of Sat, with a few other on pacers in the field. 8-ESTEE leads, but she doesn’t actually run along in front – last two runs she has got to the front and stacked them up – doubt she can do that today. 12-ROOBLES, 15-LUNAR LIGHTS can go forward and apply some pressure, 3-ROCHA and 5-MISS SCARLATTI both need to get across from wide barriers, so this should ensure a little more speed in the race. 1-SAMANTHA MISS is going to start extremely short in this – and probably does win. Think jockey will need to get her out from inside barrier and get her coming down the middle of the track though. We are actually pretty keen on 5-MISS SCARLATTI, who probably should’ve won the Wakeful, meets all these better on weights, and her form in against the male 3YOs is first rate. Outside barrier is a problem, but is a rolling on pace stayer and might prove hard to run down. Probably prefer to have something the win on her, and think she is a genuine chance of beating the favourite. 9-TOBOUGGIE WOOGIE the best of the rest and should be running on out wide. One to risk: 3-ROCHA Roughie: 14-POCO GUSTO RESULTS : Huge effort from 5-MISS SCARLATTI who has to work from outside barrier and as expected, sticks on really well in straight. Amazed she started as long as $17 on BETFAIR, thought she was a clear 2nd pick and much better than the rest of the opposition - except one. Class filly goes on her winning way, and once 1-SAMANTHA MISS was off the fence was probbaly never going to be beaten. Looked a gimme quinella.

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