|
|
$50 free bet when you refer a friend. |
BETFAIR will totally change the way you bet. |
| FLEMINGTON : OAKS DAY - 5th Nov 2009 |
| Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 5M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Flemington has raced pretty fairly all week, most of the winners have come a few horses off the rails on Saturday and racing on Tuesday did seem to favour those running on down the middle of the track when a strong head wind made it hard for horses racing on the speed. Usually track is starting to wear by Thurs so whilst it will be even racing early, look for those running on later in the day. Suspect the pattern of the runners on winning out wide is probably going to continue. Down the straight they were racing down the middle of the track on Tuesday, so that makes it really hard to judge what barriers are better to draw, but still think the wider you draw the better. Cup Day is a bad day to have a bet just cause it’s so hard, but at least you can play with some outsiders and value bets. Oaks Day is a bad day to have a bet just cause it’s so darn boring, very little of interest going around today. So dabble only, and save up your money for Stakes Day which is always a much, much better betting day. Actually just look at our selections in the last 4 races, we have gone FAINT PERFUME into KING DIAMOND into DIAMONDS AT DUSK - are we picking out Oaks Day special names for the female punters ? PERFUME into DIAMONDS into DIAMONDS, does make us wonder whether we should go for a PRINCE in the last - IT’S PRINCE ?? RESULTS : Again we have a fine day and drying weather and the track dries out to a GOOD(3) - that has happened just about every major meeting so far this year. Track races evenly, but as has been for most of the week seems that many of the winners in the circle races are running on down the middle of the track though. Down the straight they continue to race up the middle of the track, which is just plain confusing, but most of the leaders actually kick on pretty well closer to the rail. Tips go OK, but not much value around. BEST EACH WAY : Race 1: 14-SEA SKYE $ 5 EW Lightly raced one who is fitter for 3 runs from a spell and has been racing really well. Dropped out clear last in last run, suited by fast speed and was really finishing on hard late. Little bit of extra distance here should suit as long as there is some pace on and the runners on continue to win as they did on Tuesday should finish over the top of them. RESULTS : Drops back, does nothing. BEST ROUGH : Race 8: 6-DIAMONDS AT DUSK $5EW This one was quite impressive in its last win and has been given a bit of a freshen up since then. Impressive win/place strike rate, drawn wide and probably the outside of the straight will be quicker today. Was SCR from a race on Tuesday for this – that race was worth $100,000, this race is listed and worth $150,000 – always like getting on them when they have been scratched for harder races (and like getting off them when they are scratched for weaker races). Currently $21 on fixed odds, but think that is going to go fast. RESULTS : Runs on OK, just nosed out for third, but is beaten a long way. QUINELLA : Race 2: 8-SEEKING ATTENTION #2,3,6,14,18(scr) x $2 = $10 2nd 8-SEEKING ATTENTION W=$7.40, 1st 6-VERY DISCREET W=$5.10 QUINELLA = $16.00 x 2 = 32 + 2 SCR = $34 We have been doing pretty well with the quinellas in the straight races this week – got the one on Sat, and only just missed on Tuesday. The (8) is the one to beat in this race, jumped and ran and beat most of these last start. Just might be a little more pressure up front today with a few other leaders in this, but should be in this for a long way. Anchor it in the quinella with the other main chances and should still be an OK dividend in a big field. RESULTS : Never look in doubt here, the 8-SEEKING ATTENTION sits just behind the leader and kicks to the lead and fights on well as one challenges. Almost comes back and wins. OK quinella - the other runners actually fill the First Four. First Four 6-8-14-2 pays $1345 FLEXI QUADRELLA : Races 6,7,8,9 : 2 / 1,2,3,4,7 / 2,4,6,8,10 / 5,6,9 x $15 = 20% 1st 2-FAINT PERFUME W=$1.70 / 1st 1-TURF EXPRESS W=$4.20 / 1st 2-BURDEKIN BLUES W=$4.50 / 1st 5-SADALBARI W=$6.40 QUADRELLA = $221.80 x 20% = $44.35 Not much to bet on today, so might as well take a quadrella. The 2-FAINT PERFUME looks close to unbeatable in the main race, so effectively it is a treble anyway. Load up the 2nd and 3rd legs with as many runners as possible – that is where your value will come from. Really think only the 3 winning chances in the last – 5,6,9 – the three lightly raced up and comers. Hopefully, there is a value result in the middle legs so the dividend is OK. RESULTS : Well that was hard work for not much return. 2-FAINT PERFUME only just wins in the 1st leg, we need a protest to get upheld to land the 2nd leg winner, favourite wins the 3rd leg and we only just get the nose out to claim the last leg. Damm hard work - jut to double our money ! LAY OF THE DAY : Race 5 : 6-BOOGALOO around $4.50 X at W=$4.00 Not sure of the wisdom of making the lay of the day in the All Greys Race ? To be honest when we first saw these fields we were going to rate this one on top and make it a bet of the day. Fitter for the 2 runs in, both runs have been good, was running on nicely last start and was keen to get on next time. However, is up to the 1400M today and only wins have been at 1200M. Has failed to place in 2 starts at 1400M and 1 start at 1600M and maybe is just a sprinter ?. Drawn barrier 1, likely to drop back in large field and struggle to get clear, and most of the winners having been coming down the middle of the track this week. Suspect with the funny name and OK form is going to start pretty short on the tote (< $3.00?). RESULTS : Lovely lay this one - a lot of the main chances get scratched so he is vying for favourtism. Does absolutely nothing and no sweat on this one. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more. FLEXI TRIFECTA : Race 4 : 2-MARQUARDT / 5,9,10,11,13,16 / 5,9,10,11,13,16 x $5 = 16.66% 2nd 2-MARQUARDT W=$5.60 / 1st 5-TRIM W=$4.10 / - Best chance of a big result is in the straight races. The 2-MARQUARDT has drawn a nice barrier, is fitter for the 2 runs in and was finishing on well last start. Pretty much anything could run into the placings so go wide and hope for a result – maybe tend towards the outside barriers for the place getters. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $78.35 NET : $+28.35 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 14-SEA SKYE, 7-GRAIL JEUNEY, 18-PEACE TREATY (emerg), 17-SESOTHO Race 2: 8-SEEKING ATTENTION, 6-VERY DISCREET, 3-OUR LONA Race 3: 2-IMPULSIVE DREAM, 9-CASSINI CONTEST, 8-UMATAIN Race 4: 2-MARQUARDT, 9-HAPPY HIPPY, 10-HUSSKILA Race 5: 4-MYSTICAL GREY, 10-NO JURISDICTION, 14-CARRYUSALL Race 6: 2-FAINT PERFUME, 5-LIVIA, 6-VALDEMORO Race 7: 2-KING DIAMOND, 3-DON JOSE, 4-EXCUSE MY FRENCH Race 8: 6-DIAMONDS AT DUSK, 4-TRAMUNTANA, 2-BURDEKIN BLUES Race 9: 6-RED HUSTLER, 5-SADALBARI, 9-SHIP IN THE NIGHT |
 |
|
| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 14-SEA SKYE 7-GRAIL JEUNEY 2nd W=$5.40 18-PEACE TREATY |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-SEEKING ATTENTION 2nd W=$7.40 6-VERY DISCREET 1st W=$5.10 3-OUR LONA Quinella : $16.00 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-IMPULSIVE DREAM SCR 9-CASSINI CONTEST 3rd W=$7.60 8-UMATAIN 1st W=$13.10 *** nice value winner *** |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-MARQUARDT 2nd W=$5.60 9-HAPPY HIPPY 10-HUSSKILA |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-MYSTICAL GREY SCR 10-NO JURISDICTION 14-CARRYUSALL |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-FAINT PERFUME 1st W=$1.70 5-LIVIA SCR 6-VALDEMORO 2nd W=$9.50 QUINELLA : $6.40 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-KING DIAMOND 2nd W=$4.90 3-DON JOSE 4-EXCUSE MY FRENCH |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-DIAMONDS AT DUSK 4-TRAMUNTANA 2-BURDEKIN BLUES 1st W=$4.50 |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-RED HUSTLER 5-SADALBARI 1st W=$6.40 9-SHIP IN THE NIGHT 3rd W=$7.80 |
| RACE 6: BORING OAKS 2500M GROUP 1 3YO F |
| Tips: 2-FAINT PERFUME 1st W=$1.70 5-LIVIA SCR 6-VALDEMORO 2nd W=$9.50 QUINELLA : $6.40 |
| Others: - Pace: SLOW Leaders : 10-PERFECT RHYTHM Handy : 1-MELITO, 5-LIVIA Back : 2-FAINT PERFUME, 3-SILENT SURROUND, 4-MISS WITH ATTITUDE, 6-VALDEMORO, 8-MONEY ANGEL, 9-WELL ROUNDED, 12-PRINCESS RAGE, 13-RHIANNON'S JOY Chances: 2-FAINT PERFUME is one of Bart’s who has come out of nowhere the last couple of weeks and is looking a dead set super star. Ran on very well from well back in Thousand Guineas on a track that was favouring on pacers, she was 2nd up and up 400M that day so was a huge effort. Then beat stable mate SO YOU THINK in track work before the Cox Plate. Some silly fool named Turf Deli took her on last Saturday and paid the price – she absolutely slaughtered them – had the race won a long way out. That was one of the most impressive Wakeful wins in a long time and that is by far the best form line for this race. Does meet some of her rivals from last start worse at the weights, but she totally slaughtered them. Does drop back, will give her rivals a head start, but seems to have an explosive turn of foot. One to beat, looks close to unbeatable. 1st W=$1.70 5-LIVIA has had absolutely no luck at all last 2 runs. Two starts back here in the Edward Manifold she was in a bustling match for most of the straight trying to jostle for a clear run and once she was finally left alone she finished on really well. Then last start at Caulfield was probably one of the most unlucky runs you would ever see, was travelling well a few back behind the leader, went to get out and the gap closed, shifted out again and went for another run and cannoned directly into another runner sideways at full speed and got knocked off her feet again. Got going again late but you can’t get much unluckier that than. Guess winner in that race RUN FOR NAARA did win easily though with weight, but this one probably would’ve run a clear 2nd. RUN FOR NAARA then came out on Sat in the Wakeful and was thrashed by the (2), so guess it’s hard to see this one beating the (2) either. But think she represents the unknown in this, hopelessly unlucky last start, can’t see anything from Sat beating the (2) so think she is the only danger. She will sit right on the slow pace and make her own luck which is what you want. Strong chance. SCR 6-VALDEMORO is a solid staying type who has only had the 4 runs and keeps improving every start. Has shown something pretty much every start and just looks like the type who wants a big track and distance. Came home very well at 1st start at MV, seemed to get a little lost on the wet track at Caulf but was working home OK, just took a while to find balance around the home turn at MV and was coming on well, and then at Caulf she cannoned at full speed into the (5) (and lucky us were on both of them – they knocked each other over), and she worked home well once she balanced again. Big track and Flem is going to suit. Given a nice long clear run home think she is going to improve a fair bit today. If this turns into a solid staying contest she is a chance of an upset here – she does look like a genuine stayer. Rough chance.2nd W=$9.50 Place: 1-MELITO has been going along well this spring but has been finding one better every time she steps out. Was coming home well in the Thousand Guineas, and not far off them on Sat in the Wakeful, but she got a perfect run just behind the speed and the (2) sailed past her like she was wearing lead gumboots so pretty hard to see her turning the tables today. Does meet the (2) 2.5 kgs better, but the margin was a whopping 5.3L. She can sit handy so will make her own luck, but suspect she will find one better again. Place 3-SILENT SURROUND has been coming along slowly this time in, didn’t have all that much luck in first few runs this time in. Run in Edward Manifold here was supper impressive, was flying home late, then did little in the Thousand Guineas. Seemed to appreciate being back at Flem with solid performance on Sat in the Wakeful, poked up on the rails and looked like she was going to be right in the finish, that is till the (2) cruised on by and stopped to wave bye bye. Looks like distance and Flem will suit, but this is often not a true staying race anyway. Place. 7-ZAPURB is a staying type who has been going along OK. Worked home well at MV 3 starts back, then outclassed when up against the males at Flem. Worked home OK at Caulfield, well beaten and the (5) and the (6) from that race both had little luck. She will work home OK, but will find one better. Place at very best. 11-SAVSBELLE has only has the 4 starts and probably has some improvement to come still. Maiden, but has worked home pretty well last 2 runs and wasn’t disgraced in the Wakeful on Sat. She did drop a long way out and was still beaten a long way there. Maybe a rough chance with improvement, this seems such a dull race she seems to be about the only unknown factor so she is probably the only one at odds with any sort of chance. Rough. 3rd W=$38.30 13-RHIANNON'S JOY has only had the 2 runs in so probably has a lot of improvement to come. Winner from Mornington race won Tues at Flem so form holds up. Well beaten by the (8) last start, but suspect this one might have more improvement and can turn the tables today. Rough place chance. Sacking: 4-MISS WITH ATTITUDE has been going OK, just OK – ran on nicely in Bill Stutt against the boys, wasn’t too far off them in the Thousand Guineas and then well beaten in the AAMI Vase. Guess she has been racing against the males so might improve back to her own sex. Will drop back from inside barrier. Just not overly convinced she is going all that well, she has had 8 starts this time in which is a very long preparation and wonder if she might just come unstuck over a tough staying trip. Passing. 8-MONEY ANGEL has been going along OK on the provincials. Led to win in a small field last time, but is normally ridden a bit further back. Hard to see her having the class to win this. No 9-WELL ROUNDED is another that hasn’t been that far away on the provincials but this is much, much harder. Made good ground from well back in OK race over in Adel, then went pretty well against the boys in the Geelong Classic Trial to run 4th – she made lots of ground in that race. Seeing the horse that started favourite for the Derby ran 3rd in that race she would have to start pretty well supported in this surely? No? (sorry still can’t believe silly ROCKFERRY started favourite in the Derby). Beaten by others going around here in previous runs and unlikely to be a factor in this. No 4th W=$21.50 10-PERFECT RHYTHM at least represents a new form line going into this race. Down from Sydney Is a maiden after 10 starts so hard to see her winning this. Drawn 1 and can race forward so probably only likely leader in this. No 12-PRINCESS RAGE is another maiden who is having a pretty long 1st preparation – been up since July and had 7 runs. Actually came home really well at Caulfield on the rails, but she was getting weight from the rest of the field and has to meet them on equal weights today, and there were several unlucky runners in that race. She did cut the corner too. Was 200-1, so run in that race was probably a bit flattering. No. Summary: The VRC Oaks is pretty much the most boring race of the whole spring, just about always get a short priced favourite, and it just about always wins. Very rare to get a surprise result in this race for the simple reason that these have all been racing against each other for months now, so you can line them all up easily and they will keep finishing in the same order as the lead up races. Normally there is a class 3YO filly who just goes on her wining way. The Wakeful is always the strongest form line for this race, it was only 5 days again so not much will change in that time. Often this isn’t a strong staying test anyway, so the class filly with the turn of foot will win. 15 of the last 21 Oaks winners have come through the Wakeful, 9 of those have won the Wakeful and this race. Few have won the Wakeful as impressively as 2-FAINT PERFUME did on the weekend. Only question mark in this race is that there is absolutely no pace in this race at all, so doubt it will be a strong staying contest. Maybe 10-PERFECT RHYTHM leading with 1-MELITO, 5-LIVIA sitting handy, but guessing someone will realise that there is no speed and decide to take up the running. Sit and sprint race won’t bother the favourite 2-FAINT PERFUME who has by far the best acceleration out of this lot. Has to be said though 5-LIVIA is going to get the best run in this race - no speed and will sit just behind the leader and make her own luck. Obviously we have to go 2-FAINT PERFUME to win this (still cringing from embarrassment at making her the Lay of the Day on Saturday), she thrashed them in one of the best Wakeful wins in a long time – she might go on to be something special. Is there a danger? Probably not, but 5-LIVIA looks a very solid place best if the odds are OK, absolutely no luck last start and should sit right on a slow pace here and make her own luck. 6-VALDEMORO the only other one worth considering, solid staying type who will appreciate Flem and the distance. Race does look pretty much over though. 2-FAINT PERFUME really should win. Not a huge fan of backing short priced favourites so probably a no bet race for us, or maybe just an interest each way bet on 5-LIVIA or 6-VALDEMORO. One to risk: None – boring race Roughie: None – boring race The Key: Wakeful form RESULTS : As often happens when there is obviously no speed in a race something takes it up and really runs them along and does turn it into a true staying contest. 2-FAINT PERFUME wins, but not by much and super effort from the 6-VALDEMORO who stays all day and really makes her work for it. Probably had favourite backers a bit worried. Nice trifecta ($200) simply by going the winning chances into the few places chances which would not have cost much. |
|
|
Bet $30 on Oaks Day and you get $100 worth of free bets for Stakes Day. You can bet on Stakes Day with someone else's money. - open a new IASBET account using the promotion code TURFDELI - deposit and turn over $30 on Oaks Day - $100 worth of free bets will be credited to your account for Stakes Day. |
