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FLEMINGTON : OAKS DAY - 4th NOV 2010
Track: HEAVY(8) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 6M

Betting Portfolio ($100):
Still the rain keeps coming. Nothing substantial, just occasional showers, but the track just isn’t getting any time to improve at all. Now that the track has been raced on it is going to take longer to dry out as well, so very little chance of Oaks Day racing on anything better than a genuine slow track.
The best ground all week has been out in the middle of the track, and expect them to go there again today, even with the rail going out further than Tues. Look for swoopers and those drawn wider barriers and try to avoid those drawn inside barriers. Down the straight again they will come middle of the track or wider, and you just wonder if now there has been a lot of racing if maybe hard up against the outside rail is going to be the place to be today.

Often Oaks Day is just a string of short priced favourites, this is one of the toughest Oaks Day programs we have ever seen. Capacity fields and a wet track don’t help much – remember to do your wet track form. Suspect we are going to continue on from where we left off on Cup Day, lots of value winners/place getters and should be yet more monster trifectas and first fours. There are some solid each way bets on the program that look good value, so maybe anchor them in extremely wide trifectas and go for some big collects – they will be up for grabs. Accordingly we have thrown a few wild roughies into the selections in a few of the races.

We are actually going to double up the betting portfolio today – there is a lot to bet on, all at each way odds so hopefully there will be a few collects.

RESULTS : Finally we get some sunshine at Flemington, but the lawns are still mud patches and of course the trains get stopped on the way home - all part of the enhanced raceday experience. Track firms up over the day, as the day progresses it tends to move towards on pacers, and the winners move closer and closer to the rails. Down the straight best going is still out past the middle of the track. We continue on from our good Cup Day form with lots of value winners on a pretty good day on the punt.


BEST BET : Race 4: 6-CURTANA $20 WIN 1st W=$3.50 = 20 x 3.5 = $70
Put in a huge run here on Saturday when was the best of the runners on in the Group 1 Coolmore. One rule of Cup week is to always get on sprinters who have gone well backing up again in Cup week. Should be fitter for the 2 runs in, has drawn towards the outside which is likely to be the better ground and this is a much weaker race than Sat – yet carries almost the same weight. Only query is slightly suspect in wet ground, the track was still DEAD when she ran on Sat (note that they broke 1:10 for the 1200M, so it can’t have been very wet). Still looks too good, even more confident if the track dries out to better side of slow.
RESULTS : Best bet of the day home, and even better never looked like losing. Really thought this was pretty close to a good thing, so the $4 or so on offer from the bookies seemed almost too good to be true.

BEST WIN : Race 2: 4-DORF COMMAND, 14-SUNDAY ROSE (SCR) $7.50 WIN X, $7.50
Again look to get on those backing up after good runs in Cup week. The (2) ran very well here on Sat on a heavy track – and on form doesn’t look like she handles the wet. Extremely good run start before that at Caulfield on a dynamite leader’s track when ran on well late. The (14) is one of Bart’s who is pretty smart, strong finisher, who burst through a gap with gusto in a silly MV 955M spring. Both strong finishers who will be suited down the straight.
RESULTS : Does nothing

BEST EACH WAY : Race 9: 2-LAKEDRO $10 WIN X
QUINELLA : Race 9: 2-LAKEDRO, 8-NIBLICK x $5 X, 1st 8-NIBLICK W=$3.50
QUINELLA : Race 9: 2-LAKEDRO, 10-ST IVES x $2.50 X, 2nd 10-ST IVES W=$23.50
QUINELLA : Race 9: 2-LAKEDRO, 9-BANRI MAEVE x $2.50
Lightly raced and has a very good win/place strike rate. Fitter for the 2 runs this time in, and both runs have been excellent. Burst to the lead last start and looked the winner before one came over the top of him, and note that TAGUS won on Tues coming out of this race. Handles it wet. Should box seat here and pretty confident about it’s chances. So back it to win, and take some quinellas with the main danger the (8), and two outsiders the (10) and (9).
RESULTS : Oh you gotta hate that. Our top pick bombs out badly, but the others run a nice quinella. Such is the punt. Gotta love it

BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 11-KEANO $7.50 EW SCR $15
Can’t believe we are backing this one ! We absolutely hate it – have never, ever backed it. In fact, we have laid it successfully quite a few times. But looks well suited here today, he has been going OK over winter and note last start coming back from a freshen he ran up behind them and had absolutely nowhere to go. Suspect he might go better on wet tracks and is best over 1000M/1100M so looks like he might do something today. Has drawn an inside barrier though, so might have to get out past the middle of the track somehow to be a serious chance.

QUINELLA : Race 6: 6-SASA, 2 -BRAZILIAN PULSE, 7-PLACEMENT x $5 = $15 1st 2 -BRAZILIAN PULSE W=$2.70, 3rd 7-PLACEMENT W=$13.30
Still might be some value in the quinella in the Oaks, simplest thing to do is just take the best runs from the Wakeful. Value is going to come here if the (7) gets into the finish – which on a wet track she might just do.
RESULTS : Not far off a collect here, something just ran home too strongly for 2nd.

BEST ROUGH : Race 7: 10-SADDLE THE STARS $5 EW X
Maiden who has only had the 3 stars, but seems to be on the improve. Run in the Geelong Derby Trial was seriously good, he was finishing on very strongly. Back in distance today, but a wet track and likely to favour swoopers and can just see him coming hard and late in the tough conditions at odds.

LAY OF THE DAY : Race 7 : 2-ZUBBAYA at around $4 10th W=$4.80 fav
We are going to take this one on – even though it is a last start city winner by 4 lengths. Good ride by the jockey slowed them up and he pinched he race last start – he has been ditched for the stable jockey today. This is a much stronger field, and last time she went past the 1600M, 2 starts back here, she compounded over the last 200M. Probably sits handy or in lead on a day when they will be swooping and there are a few strong finishers in this race, something should run over the top of her.
RESULTS : Nice lay here - started favourite, but did pretty much as preditced. Led, kicked and looked good half way down the straight, but compounded badly. Just like she did at Flem 2 starts back. She obviously really struggles past 1600M.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
Race 2 : FLEXI TRIFECTA : 4,14(scr) / 4,7,9,13,14,17 / 4,7,9,13,14,17 x $5 = 12.5%
Let’s take our own advice and take a wide trifecta in Race 2. Race looks extremely open, but there are two solid top pics, so just go as wide as possible in the placings and good chance of a large trifecta dividend.
RESULTS: X / 1st 17-STATUS SYMBOL W=$50.50 / X
The (14) gets scratched so doesn't leave us with much. But you gotta hate it when you like a nice $50 shot and you have it as fourth pick so no-one gets to know about it. No guts no glory.

SPENT : $100
RETURN : $92.50
NET : -$7.50

The Tips:

Race 1: 12-THE BIG STEEL, 5-VESPER, 3-COSMOCRAT
Race 2: 4-DORF COMMAND, 14-SUNDAY ROSE, 9-ABOUT READY
Race 3: 1-AIN’TNOFALLENSTAR, 10-QUEEN’S FASHION, 14-BE SAVVY
Race 4: 6-CURTANA, 8-WONDERFUL LASS, 4-DUTCHY’S LASS
Race 5: 12-LIBBY’S DAUGHTER, 15-KING COBWEB, 5-ZAIRA
Race 6: 6-SASA, 2 -BRAZILIAN PULSE, 7-PLACEMENT
Race 7: 6-ABSOLUTELYAWESOME, 10-SADDLE THE STARS, 4-GUJJU
Race 8: 11-KEANO, 7-AVENUE, 2-RIGHTFULLY YOURS
Race 9: 2-LAKEDRO, 8-NIBLICK, 10-ST IVES



RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
12-THE BIG STEEL 1st W=$16.30 *** nice way to start the day ! ***
5-VESPER 2nd W=$2.00
3-COSMOCRAT

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
4-DORF COMMAND
14-SUNDAY ROSE SCR
9-ABOUT READY

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
1-AIN’TNOFALLENSTAR
10-QUEEN’S FASHION
14-BE SAVVY SCR

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
6-CURTANA 1st W=$3.50 *** best bet of day ***
8-WONDERFUL LASS 2nd W=$14.00
4-DUTCHY’S LASS

Quinella : $23.60

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
12-LIBBY’S DAUGHTER
15-KING COBWEB 1st W=$14.30 *** nice value winner ***
5-ZAIRA SCR

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
6-SASA
2 -BRAZILIAN PULSE 1st W=$2.70
7-PLACEMENT 3rd W=$13.30

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
6-ABSOLUTELYAWESOME
10-SADDLE THE STARS
4-GUJJU

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
11-KEANO SCR
7-AVENUE
2-RIGHTFULLY YOURS

RACE 9: RESULTS
Tips:
2-LAKEDRO
8-NIBLICK 1st W=$3.50
10-ST IVES 2nd W=$23.50

Quinella : $37.90


RACE 6: VRC OAKS 2500M GROUP 1 3YO F
Tips:
6-SASA
2 -BRAZILIAN PULSE 1st W=$2.70
7-PLACEMENT 3rd W=$13.30

Others: 4,5

Pace: SLOW
Leaders : 4-HEARTSAREFORLOVE, 10-SPEED OF DARK
Handy : 2 -BRAZILIAN PULSE, 7-PLACEMENT, 13-SHEZATEN
Back : 1-YOSEI, 3- SHAMROCKER, 5-PRECIOUS LORRAINE, 6-SASA, 8-DIZLAGO, 9-KITTENS, 11- MARAASEEM, 12-BRIDE SALAMA

Chances:
2 -BRAZILIAN PULSE has been going along perfectly this time in, and she is largely bomb proof. She can sit on the speed and put herself into the race. Was trapped a little wide in the Thousand Guineas, but came out in the Wakeful and won clearly, even though she was again trapped wide most of the way. Often this race isn’t run as a genuine staying test, so being able to race on the speed is a big, big advantage. Hasn’t finished out of a place in 5 starts, she is going along with very little fanfare and stepping up each time to the challenges presented to her. But this is also her 1st preparation and you have to wonder how long she can stay up for and whether she can run out the 2500M trip in her 1st preparation? You just have to respect the winner of the Wakeful going into the Oaks – its just about the strongest historical form line around. Should handle it slow if the track comes up wet. Will get to run own race here and pretty much guaranteed to be in the finish. Strong chance. 1st W=$2.70

5-PRECIOUS LORRAINE brings an interesting dimension to this race, not coming through the traditional lead up the Wakeful on Sat. Showed a lot of promise in her 1st 2 starts, then did nothing at 1st two starts this spring. Came out and put in a monster run in the AAMI Vase – against the males, and the Derby winner came out of that race so the form looks very strong. She absolutely flashed home in that race – if she was a male you would have backed her going into the Derby based on that run. Need to give strong consideration to her here. Small field, probably not much pace and she is likely to drop back and be giving some of these a start, but you would think the big Flem track would suit. Only the 3 runs in too so you would think plenty of improvement to come. Track should be favouring runners on out wide too. Guess it really comes down to how the track comes up – she seemed to appreciate the firm track at MV and think she might want a better side of dead track to show her best – which seems unlikely. Chance.

6-SASA is a Sydney visitor who probably put in the best run in the Wakeful on Sat. She put in some eye catchers in Sydney before that where her runs where good, racing on pace, and sticking on well. On Sat from an extremely wide barrier they have dropped her back and she was finishing on best of anything in the race, at a rapid rate, still pretty much under a hold – the jockey never went for her. Was a very impressive run. Wonder if maybe they hold her back a little today as well? Think she is going to be the strongest finisher on the line and could easily come over the top of them. Her slow track form does read 2 duck eggs which is an issue, one of them was 1st up so can excuse that run, the other she was beaten when favourite. Probably a bit of a query on the slow. On a firm track would clearly put her on top. Still has to go into the mix – hers was the best run from Sat. Chance.

7-PLACEMENT is a dour staying type who has had a massive 8 runs this time in, and she had been around the money in every start. Still a maiden after 11 starts though. She worked home pretty well behind the (8) at Caulfield, and plugged on well on Saturday in the Wakeful. Same weight scale so the (2) should have her measure. Does seem to be the best wet tracker out of this group though and think that puts her into the mix here, despite still being a maiden. She will race on pace here, the track is still liking to be seriously rain affected and suspect she is going to plug on pretty well. Clear cut best rough chance in this. 3rd W=$13.30

Place:
1-YOSEI was having a pretty good spring till she bombed out last Saturday. Unlucky in 1st two runs this spring when flashing home late. Taken to Sydney and didn’t get going at all in the other direction. Back to the Thousand Guineas where she got a dream run on the rails, which was the better going, but when the gap came she dove through and won with gusto. Nice win. Normally the Thousand Guineas winner goes onto the Wakeful and it’s nice and easy to line them up – but she got set a pretty tough task going against the older senior ladies group in the Myer on the weekend. She bombed out badly there, obviously didn’t handle the very heavy track. Funny thing is if she had run in the Wakeful the track would have still been firm. Which makes it a bit tricky to know what to do with her today ? She is backing up, less than a week, after bombing out on the weekend – is that long enough to recover? And how do we line her up against the others that went through the Wakeful ? She accounted for them at level weights in the Thousand Guineas. Small field will suit her cause she won’t get held up for runs coming from behind. Just she is a bit of an unknown quantity, slow ground should be just OK, but anything worse than that will be a major issues and hard to back her with confidence, but she could easily win this on her best. Place.

4-HEARTSAREFORLOVE has actually been going along great this spring, but keeps starting at long odds. Everyone seems to be writing her runs off as a fluke ? She ran 3rd again the males in the Spring Stakes, yet still starts $51 in the Flight Stakes. She goes around a whopping $151 in the Thousand Guineas and runs 2nd. Thousand Guineas horses always go great in the Wakeful, yet she still goes around at $15. So she has placed in the Thousand Guineas, and the Wakeful and currently she is $21 ? Seems nuts. Form is consistent, she has form in the right lead up races, Thousand Guineas / Wakeful, she can race on speed and should handle it wet. Had a whopping 9 runs this time in. She will be thereabouts, but you just get the impression it is going to be for the place again and something is going to be too brilliant for her here. Almost certain to be in the finish though. Place.

11- MARAASEEM worked home solidly Sat in the Wakeful and wasn’t beaten that far. Handled wet ground at the start of her preparation and did strike trouble in the Thousand Guineas so can probably excuse that run. Again she shouldn’t be too far off them – just there are 4 horses who finished in front of her on Sat going around here so prefer place at best. Place.

13-SHEZATEN is one that didn’t actually run in the Wakeful on Sat – how dare she. She is going along OK on the provincials, and not doing much wrong – she has been around the money in every career start so far. Just OK on a wet track. She is another who can go forward and she might actually go OK here. Throw her in as a rough place chance just as a new form line away from the rest of these. Place.


Sacking:
3- SHAMROCKER has been heading in the right direction till bombed out on Sat in the Wakeful when stewards reported she “quartered a near fore heel and sustained a puncture to off for flexor”. Think that is just fancy talk for stubbing your toe ? Wasn’t far behind the (2) in the Edward Manifold. Unknown in wet ground. How long does it take to get over that sort of injury? Obviously not long if she is backing up again today, but you would think you would want to be wary as problems can appear with race exertion. Bottom line is she has met the (2) twice and been beaten by her both times so hard to get enthused. Does drop in weight from Sat, but passing. No 2nd W=$23.60

8-DIZLAGO is a solid staying type who looked the goods when winning at Caulfield on a very heavy track, so we know that she handles the wet at least. Dropped well back on Saturday in the Wakeful and didn’t make much ground, she does probably need a faster run race so she can run into it, but still a very disappointing run. Hard to line her up – she is going to be giving this a start in a small field and even if she does return to form you would think something racing on pace is going to pinch a break on her in this. Sat run just too disappointing. No

9-KITTENS has been coming through different form lines from most of these and went along OK on Sat in the Wakeful when was making ground late in the race. Still the (6) has come from behind her and gone past her easily. Unknown on wet ground. She will probably finish on OK again, but hard to see her beating home those who finished in front of her on Saturday, so risking. No 4th W=$10.40

10-SPEED OF DARK is an on pacer who has been thereabouts in the early spring 3YO filly races, but has been outclassed her last couple of runs. Should handle it wet, but her last couple of runs haven’t been too crash hot and hard to see how she is going to improve enough to be a factor here. No

12-BRIDE SALAMA didn’t do much here on Sat in the Wakeful when dropped out the back of the field. Worked home OK start before that at Caulfield and probably will appreciate the wet track here today. Outclassed though. No

Summary: This is usually the one race of the year where if you want to have a serious plonk on a favourite you just go for it. They 3YO fillies have normally all been racing against each other week in, week out, similar fields, so you can line them up pretty easily and bet with confidence. Wakeful form is obviously the form to follow, 15 of the last 20 winners have come through the Wakeful in their lead up run, but obviously most of the Oaks field comes from that race. 8 times the winner of the Wakeful has gone onto win the Oaks. Normally you just back the winner of the Wakeful, and/or the best run out of the race, taking into mind weight drops.

However, this year actually looks trickier than most, mainly because of the wet track and a few unknown quantities. What do we do with 1-YOSEI who beat all of these in the Thousand Guineas, yet flopped on a wet track on the weekend – can she bounce back in time, and how wet is the track going to be today ? Same with 5-PRECIOUS LORRAINE, huge run last start, on a dry track would almost rate her on top. What about 8-DIZLAGO who stayed solidly to win 2 starts back but did nothing on the weekend ?

Despite there being quite a few who race handy here, can’t imagine the speed is going to be anything flash. Extremely rare for the Oaks to be run at a solid tempo. 4-HEARTSAREFORLOVE, 10-SPEED OF DARK probably set the speed from 13-SHEZATEN, with 2 -BRAZILIAN PULSE, 7-PLACEMENT sitting just off these.

Going to go with the best run of the Wakeful, 6-SASA was flying over the top of them under a hold. Just wonder if they might ride her back a little today as well ? Not entirely convinced she handles wet ground, so more confident if the track starts to improve, but have to take the punt – her run was huge on the weekend. The safest way home is the favourite 2 -BRAZILIAN PULSE who will box seat and definitely put herself into the race. Value runner is 7-PLACEMENT who will stay all day and is going to appreciate the wet ground. Probably box these 3 up in a quinella and take a box trifecta with the 4-HEARTSAREFORLOVE who for some reason keeps starting at huge odds even though she has all the right form.

One to risk: 3- SHAMROCKER 2nd W=$23.60
Roughie: 7-PLACEMENT 3rd W=$13.30

The Key: Follow the best run from the Wakeful.

RESULTS : Yet another Wakeful-Oaks winner and they always start well backed. Pretty solid win too, pressure up front, still kicked clear nicely. But so often the 3YO fillies look so good and never go on with it next season. Horrible ride on 6-SASA who gets sent to a long lead mid race and is already gone on the turn. Solid run from 3- SHAMROCKER flashing home and you would just about say without her setback on Sat she would have just about won.


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