 |
The standard offer is deposit $50, get a $100 free bet, but if you are making a bank for Cup week we prefer the deposit $100, get a $200 free bet offer. Plus $50 Free Bet for every friend you refer |
|
| FLEMINGTON : OAKS DAY - 3rd Nov 2011 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 3M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Track has been racing pretty fairly all week. Derby Day with a strong headwind it probably favoured those running on late or with cover. Cup Day the track improved quickly with not as much rain around as predicted and it played very fair – it was noticeable that they could come from well back and get into the finish, but it was also worth noting that most of the winners still actually raced on pace or closer to the rails. Think they were going a little bit too wide in most races? Worth noting that they are keeping the rail in the 3M position today – the same position as Tuesday which is very unusual. Normally they move it out to 6M or so. Considering they were coming off the rails in the last couple of races on Tuesday you can assume they will be doing the same again and heading to the middle of the track, so suspect we might get a track favouring those running on. Down the straight they keep heading out to the middle of the track or further, then all trying to make runs out wide. Common theme in the straight races this week is that it has been the on pacers winning – and those drawn more towards the inside, cause the rest of the field keep dropping back, getting held up for runs and finding trouble. Stick with these – look for the on pacers in the straight races who are going to be clear of all this trouble. Few form notes. On Tuesday we had ILLUSTRIOUS MISS backing up in the same race she won last year and she ran 3rd and RIGHT FONG in the same race he won/placed in last two years and he placed. Today we have a few runners in the same race they won last year. In Race 3: 3-STATUS SYMBOL is backing up after wining this race last year at 50-1, and her form isn’t that bad – note that her best form is over the 1100M so she is worth a rough each way ticket even if we didn’t put her into the tips. In Race 5 : 13-KING COBWEB won this race last year off a very similar form line. Big congratulations too to JUNGLE RULER who had his 100th start last week – and of course won. That was always bound to happen. Actually this is by far the strongest Grey’s race we can remember – love the 3YO going into open class – greys! . Seem to have settled on most of the popular chances in these races and seems unlikely there is going to be much in the way of value winners or multiples today. Instead, there are quite a few solid $5 chances that you can have a serious whack at. We are pretty much dead even in the Betting Portfolio 15 meetings into spring with only a few days remaining, so let’s double up again to $100 as there seems to be quite a few genuine bets today. RESULTS : Track races fairly evenly, they are coming out wide and off the rails early in the day, but by the end of the day the on pacers seem to be sticking on. Down the straight they spread nicely across the track, though suspect closer to the middle is still the better going. Frustrating day for the Betting Portfolio and tips, with lots of scratchings, even though we had a nice value winner lurking there ready to be taken advantage of. BEST BET : Race 6: 2-DOWAGER QUEEN $22 WIN 2nd W=$3.60 TRIFECTA : Race 6: 2-DOWAGER QUEEN / 7-VITTORIA / 1,3,4,8 x $8 = 200% 2-DOWAGER QUEEN 2nd W=$3.60 / X / 1st 1-MOSHEEN W=$4.20 This one is likely to start favourite in the Oaks, and the Oaks is one of the few races where you can have a serious bash at a short priced one as these fillies have been racing against each other for weeks on end and all the form is exposed. Best run from the Caulfield 2000M race when had no luck and finishing on hard, and then coming home well again on Saturday in the Wakeful – and the best Wakeful run invariably wins this race. Will get back, not much speed here, but she has the finishing burst to win this. Currently around $3.70 which looks value and think people are still trying to work out this race without ATLANTIC JEWEL around. Suspect she will be well backed. Back her straight out and let’s try and grab a trifecta multiple times with the value danger the (7). RESULTS : Absolutely slaughtered by the on pacer and class filly, the 1-MOSHEEN. BEST WIN : Race 4: 2-MISS STELLABELLE $20 WIN 2nd W=$4.80 QUINELLA : Race 4: 2-MISS STELLABELLE, 1-SATIN SHOES x $5 2nd 2-MISS STELLABELLE W=$4.80, X QUINELLA : Race 4: 2-MISS STELLABELLE, 4-BOLISIMO MISS x $5 2nd 2-MISS STELLABELLE W=$4.80, X This one is going along really well, stormed home along rails at MV night meeting for impressive win and was noticeable hitting the line hard last start at MV when KARUTA QUEEN was too speedy for her. Strong finisher in form and should be suited finishing hard along the Flemington straight. Back her straight out and take a saver quinella with the two on pacers, particularly the (1) as even though she is still suspect at 1200M she ran really well here on Sat and always respect sprinters backing up in Cup week – they normally hold their form. RESULTS : Races really well and right in the finish, but just finds one better. Picked the wrong horses for the saver bets. BEST EACH WAY : Race 8: 3-FIRST COMMAND $10 WIN SCR $10 Race 8 : Quinella Box : 3(scr),4,5,7,17 x $1.50 = $15 SCR $10.50 1st 17-ROCKING FORCE W=$15.50, 3rd 4-PERTURBO W=$5.10, 4th 7-CASCABEL W=$17.50 We have been harping on all week about how they keep coming to the outside of the track or better in the straight races, they all go for runs along the outside rail and knock each other over – whilst those racing on pace back towards the middle of the track get a clear run and have been winning. This one looks really well placed here – on pacer drawn middle of the track. Had a freshen after he loomed up like he was going to win here last start over 1200M, and that was a funny race – the two on the inside looked clear to fight the race out and suddenly 3 came swarming over the top of them out wide. Dry tracker and the weather is looking up. Placed in this race last year and the Flem 1200M just finds him out so much better suited over the 1000M here. Back him to win and save with a box quinella, mainly for the best outsider here the (17). RESULTS : Damn scratchings. We end up with the value winner the 17-ROCKING FORCE on top here at nice odds, and probably would have had something each way on it with the main bet scratched. Unlucky not to get a value quinella - 1st, 3rd and 4th from only 4 picks. BEST ROUGH : Race 1: 15-SEA GALLEON $5 EW SCR $10 Stayer with some ability coming back after a year long lay off. Looking like he might get back to best form too, won 1st up – surprising after such a long break, and working home really well again 2nd up last start. He has pretty solid form – SA Derby place getter, solid run in MV Cup last year. Out to 1800M today, drawn wide, but at bottom of weights here and likely to be running on pretty well and nice rough chance. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 5 : 2-CHOSEN TO FLY at around $5.50 2nd W=$7.20 We know everyone is watching this section with much interest after a whole string of these won early on in the spring, but the last 4 weeks or so have been clear – even if we were lucky to get away with EXLCUDED here on Tuesday. This one has been going along OK, but still a serious query at the 1400M for us. 4 starts for the 1 second, and that was at Caulfield 2 starts back on a track seriously favouring on pacers – so he just lobbed off the speed and pretty much nothing changed position for the whole race. Lumped with 59kgs here, and this is actually a strong field for the greys’ race and giving away 6kgs to over half this field is a big ask. Races on speed and there is also a stack of speed in this – mainly the (1) and (5), so hard to see him winning a genuinely run 1400M race with 59kgs. Risking RESULTS : Drifts dramatically in the betting, never looks a chance though even though finishes off OK for 2nd. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. Race 3 : Quinella Box : 3,4,6,8,14(scr) x 50 cents = $5 SCR $2 2nd 4-BALMONT W=$19.60 Let’s go again with the box quinella in the big field straight race. If per chance the short priced favourite the (8) gets caught up again in the middle of the field (which is a distinct possibility) there will be plenty of value here. Mainly around the 3-STATUS SYMBOL who is going along OK and won this race last year, and is much better suited back to the 1100M here, but the main dangers to the favourite the (14) and the (6) are both at better than $10 so looks a good value race. RESULTS : The favourite misses the place, but we don't get warm with the other runners SPENT : $100 RETURN : $32.50 NET : -$67.50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 15-SEA GALLEON, 4-ELUSIVE KING, 6-DEAD END Race 2: 1-CLIQUES, 3-TWILIGHTING, 8-BAREBACK Race 3: 14-LADY MAHLER, 8-VALENTINE MISS, 6-CELTS Race 4: 2-MISS STELLABELLE, 1-SATIN SHOES, 4-BOLISIMO MISS Race 5: 13-KING COBWEB, 9-DASH FOR VIZ , 6-TRANSLATION Race 6: 2-DOWAGER QUEEN, 7-VITTORIA, 3-GLIDING Race 7: 1-TORAH, 8-NOW YOU KNOW, 9-SLEEP’N’PETE Race 8: 3-FIRST COMMAND, 17-ROCKING FORCE (emerg), 4-PERTURBO, 5-MASTER HARRY Race 9: 4-COSMIC CAUSEWAY, 9-DID HE WIN, 13-FACE OFF |
 |
|
| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 15-SEA GALLEON SCR 4-ELUSIVE KING 6-DEAD END |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-CLIQUES 3rd W=$3.20 3-TWILIGHTING 8-BAREBACK |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 14-LADY MAHLER SCR 8-VALENTINE MISS 6-CELTS |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-MISS STELLABELLE 2nd W=$4.80 1-SATIN SHOES 4-BOLISIMO MISS |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-KING COBWEB 9-DASH FOR VIZ 1st W=$7.80 6-TRANSLATION |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-DOWAGER QUEEN 2nd W=$3.60 7-VITTORIA 3-GLIDING |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-TORAH 8-NOW YOU KNOW 9-SLEEP’N’PETE |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 17-ROCKING FORCE 1st W=$15.50 *** nice value winner on top *** 4-PERTURBO 3rd W=$5.10 5-MASTER HARRY |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-COSMIC CAUSEWAY 9-DID HE WIN 13-FACE OFF |
| RACE 6: VRC OAKS 2500M GROUP 1 3YO F |
| Tips: 2-DOWAGER QUEEN 2nd W=$3.60 7-VITTORIA 3-GLIDING |
| Others:1,8 Pace: SLOW Leaders : Handy : 1-MOSHEEN, 3-GLIDING, 4-RAHVEEL, 6-GIOE Back : 2-DOWAGER QUEEN, 5-ROMA GIACONDA, 7-VITTORIA, 8-FALLEN ONE, 9-FLAME OF LANKA, 10-LADY JOUSTER, 11-PENTIMENTO Chances: 1-MOSHEEN has been the 2nd best filly over the spring and likely to start close to favourite here. Showed great ability as a 2YO running 2nd in a Golden Slipper, then took a little while to hit her peak form this spring. Difference really came in the Edward Manifold when the blinkers went on, she jumped and camped on the speed and shot away to an impressive 3L win. Then thought she might have had ATLANTIC JEWEL in trouble in the Thousand Guineas when she was a few lengths ahead of her behind a tear away leader, but the freak went straight past her with barely raising a sweat. Worth noting though that this one ran 2nd but still spaced the rest of the field by 2.5L in that race. So take ATLANTIC JEWEL out and she has won the Edward Manifold and Thousand Guineas by clear margins. Avoided the Wakeful on Sat where a second place was the best outcome to run in the Myer with a light weight – so would actually have a chance of winning a race. She was disappointing there, she raced on pace, over raced and the on pacers did fold up into the head wind – so she probably does have excuses. Thing is though she comes into this race now and we have not seen her past 1600M which is a worry. The class fillies can win this race even if they do not stay. She is also coming off a poor run last Sat, and the fillies who have tried to do the Myer-Oaks double just haven’t worked previously. So think there is some concern there. Note the blinkers to winkers switch here. About $5 is the right odds. Not saying she can’t win as she has been the 2nd dominant filly this spring, but there is a worry that she might have had enough this time in. Chance. 1st W=$4.20 2-DOWAGER QUEEN has been going along nicely in Sydney where she was an eye catcher running on very well, far too late against a very impressive winner in the Flight Stakes. Came to Melbourne over 2000M and had no luck at all at Caulfield, dropped back and stuck behind runners and came with a very impressive burst towards the end to grab 2nd from a hopeless position. Made good ground again here on Sat in the Wakeful and probably the best run out of the Wakeful which is the one you want to back in this race. Gets a slight weight advantage from that race. Definitely looks the one to beat here. Only question mark might be she does always get back in her races which means she can find trouble – but in a small field you would think she would be OK. There also isn’t much pace here at all, so just a niggling query that something racing on speed can pinch this and she comes home too late again. However, she seems to have the burst turn of foot out of these and that is a big plus. One to beat here. 2nd W=$3.60 3-GLIDING is one of Bart’s who stepped up at the right time to win at Caulfield 2 starts back. Did get a perfect on pace sit that day, with a strong head wind and pretty much everything went her way. Even effort on pace here on Saturday, bit hard to tell when they are so bloody far behind the winner. She seems to have come good at the right time, and with the Wakeful form out the window, the next best form is the winner of that Caulfield 2000M race. Big plus with her is that she will race handy and there is very little speed here at all – so think the race is there for the taking if she gets a soft on pace sit. Just did have every chance on Saturday and just worked home OK, and she had the best run out of those from the Caulfield race. Strong chance. 7-VITTORIA took a while to run into form this spring, but might be coming good at the right time. Form in her first 3 runs in was really nothing, but the run at Caulfield was really good finishing hard late and she was only 2L from most of these. Just get the impression she is one the up and might have more improvement to come here. Will drop back, and speed here isn’t the best, but she does look like she will stay and just really like the Caulfield run – was the run of a horse ready to do something. Strong chance here. 4th W=$9.40 8-FALLEN ONE came from well back to win her maiden and then quite liked the run at Caulfield when loomed up into the race on the inside like she was going to run into it, but died on the run. With natural improvement thought she was going to come out on Sat and do something, but she was very disappointing. Stewards did say she over raced though – she was blinkers on first time – and note that the blinkers have gone straight back off again here. She wasn’t far off these at Caulfield, and that is really the form we are trying to line up here. So although Sat was disappointing, she will start over the odds here and if you forgive that run she is some rough chance in this. Rough. Place: 4-RAHVEEL has been thereabouts this spring, but suddenly now looks a live chance in this when previously her form was just fair. Nice run here in the Edward Manifold when was on the rails in the better ground, and only 7L from ATLANTIC JEWEL in the Thousand Guineas, and apparently that one goes OK? Stuck on well on pace on Saturday in the Wakeful, but again how much can you really tell with such a big margin ? Did get as slight weight pull off some of these too. Suspect in a smallish field they will ride her forward again. She is still in her first preparation, had 6 starts already, just want to be careful here of pushing these horses by default cause there is nothing better. How much more does she have to give and how good are her runs really ? . Will be thereabouts, but prefer place. 6-GIOE is a maiden and off the top of our head don’t think many maidens have won this race. Normally there is a dominant Thousand Guineas / Wakeful filly to contend with. Nice run in the Caulfield 2000M race and not far off the winner there, but well beaten in the Wakeful. Did have every chance on Sat. Again, so hard to work out how you line up a 7L defeat vs a 11L defeat ? What does that actually mean ? Will lob on the speed here, but not sure how good she really is and prefer place. Place. 11-PENTIMENTO has some upside with only the 3 starts and run in the Caulfield 2000M race was fair when wasn’t far behind most of these. Think would still have a fair bit of improvement to come so not out of this. Another who drops back, and she is meeting 3-4 here who did beat her home last start so only a rough chance and prefer place. Place Sacking: 5-ROMA GIACONDA is a moderately performed maiden who went to Sydney to claim a charity placing in a very weak Group 2. Actually made a bit of ground very late in the Flight Stakes behind a dominant winner. Struck a bit of trouble at Caulfield, but thought she was a bit disappointing. Probably has a bit of upside, just not sure how good she really is and likely to drop well back here in a small field with not much speed so prefer to risk. No 3rd W=$33.20 9-FLAME OF LANKA is coming through a different form line to many of these so may be worth consideration on that alone. Maiden winner in Adel, then well beaten at MV over 1600M – think the worry there is that BLISS STREET carried 6kgs more than her and still beat her easily. The pace was on in that race which should have suited her. Doesn’t add much weight to her chances here. Up 900M here into a harder race and last run only fair so hard to recommend. No 10-LADY JOUSTER is coming off a Bendigo distance maiden win, but at least you know she will stay the trip and it is not like there is that much form in this race. Did take 3 tries to win her maiden which is a bit of a worry, makes you wonder how much ability she has. Totally impossible to line up and that was a 6 horse maiden field so hard to get enthused. No Summary: Normally this is a great race to have a confident bet. Like the Norman Robinson / AAMI Vase form line into the Derby, invariably the winner of the Wakeful or the best run at the weights goes on to win the Oaks. Usually there is a dominant filly who just goes on, and this is one of the few races where you can actually have a crack at a short priced favourite, cause really they just about always win. Except for this year… This year it has been all ATLANTIC JEWEL. This race was a total non event, she had it totally sown up. Was barely worth paying attention cause it was going to be a non betting race. Then she got injured and we are left trying to line up form lines where horses are beaten 7 lengths and half the time don’t even appear in the picture in the video ! Totally impossible task. Pace here is going to be slow with maybe 6-GIOE leading with 1-MOSHEEN, 3-GLIDING, 4-RAHVEEL all siting up and handy. Think it is worth focussing on the Caulfield 2000M race, the last race most of these contested with no ATLANTIC JEWEL. 2-DOWAGER QUEEN definitely the best run of the race there, shuffled back in the field and coming home hard late. Best run out of the Wakeful ? 2-DOWAGER QUEEN again probably finishing on nicely. Actually looking at it closely think she looks the stand out one here, and the $3.70 on offer looks good to us as people try and work this race out. Will drop back and there isn’t much speed, but she has a powerful finish, they will be running on well on this track again and small field means she should get a clear crack at them. 7-VITTORIA the value danger, the one with some upside and might just be hitting form at the right time and should stay the journey. 3-GLIDING the other chance getting a cosy on pace run again in a race with little to no speed. Actually when we first thought about this race we weren’t keen to bet, but now we look at it more closely really think 2-DOWAGER QUEEN sticks out here. Have a confident win bet on her and a saver on the (7). One to risk: 5-ROMA GIACONDA 3rd W=$33.20 Roughie: 8-FALLEN ONE The Key: How much can you really tell from well beaten, 7 length placings ? RESULTS : 1-MOSHEEN goes to the lead, goes further to the lead and absolutely slaughters them by nine lengtHs. Bit pereplexed as to how ATLANTIC JEWEL can be 5 lengths better than this one, who is nine lengths better than the rest of them. Bit weird. But goes to show that the class filly will beat the staying fillies every time and it was worth noting she had clear margins on this lot in the Thousand Guineas and Edward Manifold. |
|