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| FLEMINGTON: OAKS DAY - 8th Nov 2012 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 5M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Just a few showers around Weds and Thursday and really there wasn’t huge amount of rain on Cup Day, just some very impressive thunder and lightning. The track was pretty firm heading into Tuesday, so a few showers will do it good but still can’t see it getting past a genuine dead and may even stay the better side of dead. So every horse should have its chance. It was noticeable on Tuesday that the on pacers were sticking on very well, quite a few winners made rails runs from back in the field and it was pretty difficult to make ground out wide. Often if there is a pattern it can remain for Cup Week, but you would think with this track wearing it should even out. The have moved the rail out to 5M from 2M on Tuesday which would take out most of that fast lane along the rails. Down the straight they do still seem to be sticking on best closest to the rails. Have ended up with some very big fields again on Oaks Day and can be difficult to line up the form with lots and lots of up and comers coming through country maiden form. RESULTS: Another very tough day out for punters, with quaddies so far this week paying $126,000, $11,256 and $44,679. Those are some pretty serious dividends. However we continue to find value winners and managed to chalk up another profit in the Betting Portfolio today. The track races evenly, they tend to win running on late as is normally the pattern on a wearing track on Oaks Day. Down the straight the jockeys still seem to be coming too wide and it is often those closest to the rails that are fighting out the finish. BEST BET : Race 9: 7-NEW YORK $10 WIN X Up and coming type with flashing finishing bursts and they should be running on by the end of the day here. Fitter for the 3 runs in, win 2nd up was super impressive when grew wings and slaughtered them, then jockey just mistimed run slightly at Geelong to just miss when short priced favourite. As long as there is enough speed on and they are running on OK looks the one to beat here at around $4.20 RESULTS: Starts a very well backed $2.80 favourite which is probably too short, races more forward than usual, looms up and has every chance but is swamped going towards the line. He is much better ridden quietly in the back of the field, but is starting to look a bit of a query at the 1600M now. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 3-COMMANDING TIME $5 WIN 2nd W=$4.60 QUINELLA: Race 2: 3-COMMANDING TIME # 4,5,10,14,15 x $1 = $5 2nd 3-COMMANDING TIME W=$4.60 / 1st 15-NICONOISE W=$9.20 Quinella = $22.00 This one has been racing extremely well – placed it last 10 starts now ! , so let’s see if we can jinx it today. Tough on pacer, slightly back in distance, but there isn’t much speed here so should get a really good run on the speed, and really should be in the finish. Looked the winner when they cornered at Caulfield 2 starts back before one who had a cosy run on its inside poked through. Just ultra consistent, so back to win at around $5.50 and instead of backing each way try and pick up some value in quinellas with plenty of value in a big field. RESULTS: This guy is just racing so well - chalking up his 11th consecutive placing. Perfect sit on the speed and settles down to fight it out with the (15) and he just keeps trying and trying and doesn't miss by much - probably the drop back in distance just making the difference. We made the 15-NICONOISE our best roughie last start (of course), but kept it safe today so score a $22 quinella which is better than we would have got backing the (3) each way. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 18-STARDOM (emerg) $3 EW SCR $6 Need a few scratchings in the All Greys race for this one to get a start. Currently second emergency. Actually wonder how long it will be before they start chasing international grey horses for this race ? Hasn’t got the best winning strike rate around, but fitter for the 2 runs in and they have both been excellent, dropping back and flashing home extremely strongly late. Has drawn out and will drop back around Flem 1400M which is not always ideal, but the speed here looks pretty good and they should be running on OK today. Keen to have something each way at around $13, just needs to get into the field that’s all. RESULTS: Didn't make the field, but keep on eye out for this one, he is flying and due to win soon. BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 6-GENERAL TRUCE $3 EW 1st W=$16.30, P=$4.60 = $20.90 x 3 = $62.70 Very consistent type who does not win out of turn, but looks well suited here today. Fitter for the 3 runs in which have been good as always, and gets a little bit of weight relief today. Best form is over the 1000M and has gone well down the straight before. Little bit of rain around assists chances as well. The one to beat here is obviously the 16-UNPRETENTIOUS who slaughtered them here on Tuesday, but you would think it would be unlikely they would back up again today?. Just like that he is drawn middle, can go forward in clear running and make his own luck and happy to have something each way at around $21. RESULTS: Settles back, but drives through and finally scores another win. Even better on a day when we tipped it so a nice collect for the Betting Portfolio. BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 6-MARAATIB $2 EW 4th W=$13.90 Really liking the odds about this one in the Oaks, run here on Saturday was excellent and we are still going to get $20 about this one. Genuinely think it is a slight chance of an upset so have a little something on it each way just in case. RESULTS: Just settles a little too far back, goes for sneaky inside runs and looms up but is outclassed. Started a lot shorter ($13) then the odds quoted when the form guide went out. QUINELLA: Race 3: 1,3,4,7,14 x 50 cents = $5 1st 7-HONEY FLOWER W=$11.40, 2nd 1-DYSTOPIA W=$7.30 Quinella = $24.85 Big field here and extremely tough to line these up, but generally the ones towards the inside has been sticking on better down the straight this week. Most of the speed here is drawn out towards the middle of the track, but box up the best chances towards the inside just in case the pattern continues. The (1) has the class at the weights, the (3) looks ready to win with two strong finishing runs this time in, the (4) is one of our favourite horses but drop back horse down the straight barrier 1 is going to be tricky, the (7) drawn nicely and on the way up and the (14) looks the on pacer down the inside rail, and has good straight track form so nice value top pick. RESULTS: Comfortably find the value winner in the selections, and the quinella and of course as invariably happens when you take 5 horses in a box quinella it also covers the trifecta 7-1-3 which pays a tidy $1200. QUINELLA: Race 4: Race 4: 4-AGUEDA, 8-BRAVE SOUL x $2 2nd 8-BRAVE SOUL W=$5.90 QUINELLA: Race 4: Race 4: 4-AGUEDA, 6-SATURN ROCK x $2 Although the (4) here is our 2nd pick, it looks the one most likely to be in the finish, on pacer racing very well. So take it in a quinella with the two other chances the (6) and the (8) and should still be a dividend around $20 or so. RESULTS: Very difficult race with lots of country maiden improvers and one of those comes out in flying form to win. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 7: 1-KAZANLUK at around $3.60 3rd W=$9.40 This one was a impressive winner last start at MV, but has a few things against it today. Firstly it has to lump 60kgs and give 5kgs to most of this field, the (2) and the (3) are both going very well as well and this race is always tricky with a half dozen up and comers coming through maidens and often one will step up. Bit hard to tell which one will step up though, there are about 10 options, so maybe easier just to cover all of them and lay this one. RESULTS: Extremely lucky get out here - this one was a solid $3.50 favourite when we sent out the form on the Weds arvo. Come race day it had drifted alarmingly to closer to $9, it got a perfect sit and was there fighting out the finish. But one of those coming through the country form came out at $50 and saved the day. Lucky. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA: Race 6: 2-ZYDECO / 6-MARAATIB / 1, 5,8,11,14 x 50 cents = $2.50 2nd 2-ZYDECO W=$2.40 / X / 1st 1-DEAR DIMI W=$4.90 TRIFECTA: Race 6: 2-ZYDECO / 1, 5,8,11,14 / 6-MARAATIB x 50 cents = $2.50 2nd 2-ZYDECO W=$2.40 / 1st 1-DEAR DIMI W=$4.90 / X The class filly should go on and will the Oaks, but the value runner here is definitely the 6-MARAATIB whose run here on Saturday was actually pretty good and is going to start around $20. There is going to be value in the trifecta is something other than the (1) fills the other placing, so take some trifectas with the favourite the (2) to win , rove the (6) through 2nd and 3rd and hope something silly fills the other placing. Make sure you have something each way on the 6-MARAATIB as well, looks well over the odds to us. RESULTS: The favourites fight out the Oaks and the one we like at odds runs 4th. Trifecta pays surprisingly well for the three favourites in betting. RESULT: PROFIT SPENT:$ 50 RETURN: $115.55 NET: $+65.55 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 6-ROYAL AMATI, 7-TRIQUETRA, 4-JOPLIN Race 2: 3-COMMANDING TIME, 4-ORBITAL MOTION, 14-FRENCH TANG Race 3: 14-BOLISIMO MISS, 3-ANISE, 7-HONEY FLOWER Race 4: 8-BRAVE SOUL, 4-AGUEDA, 6-SATURN ROCK Race 5: 18-STARDOM (emerg), 5-SPECTER, 10-ARINOSA, 14-RUN DIEGO Race 6: 2-ZYDECO, 6-MARAATIB, 1-DEAR DEMI Race 7: 3-PHAROMAC, 2-SCAPOLO, 11-ALI VITAL Race 8: 16-UNPRETENTIOUS (unlikely), 6-GENERAL TRUCE, 2-ZARATONE, 13-I GET AROUND Race 9: 7-NEW YORK, 1-PRIZUM, 11-RENEGADE ARROW |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-ROYAL AMATI 7-TRIQUETRA 2nd W=$5.60 4-JOPLIN |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-COMMANDING TIME 2nd W=$4.60 4-ORBITAL MOTION 14-FRENCH TANG |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 14-BOLISIMO MISS 3-ANISE 3rd W=$14.40 7-HONEY FLOWER 1st W=$11.40 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-BRAVE SOUL 2nd W=$5.90 4-AGUEDA 6-SATURN ROCK |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-SPECTER 10-ARINOSA 1st W=$3.90 14-RUN DIEGO 3rd W=$19.20 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-ZYDECO 2nd W=$2.40 6-MARAATIB 1-DEAR DEMI 1st W=$4.90 Quinella: $4.30 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-PHAROMAC 2-SCAPOLO 2nd W=$4.20 11-ALI VITAL |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-GENERAL TRUCE 1st W=$16.30 *** Best Rough Of Day *** 2-ZARATONE 13-I GET AROUND |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-NEW YORK 1-PRIZUM 11-RENEGADE ARROW |
| RACE 6: VRC OAKS GROUP 1 2500M 3YO F |
| Tips: 2-ZYDECO 2nd W=$2.40 6-MARAATIB 1-DEAR DEMI 1st W=$4.90 Quinella: $4.30 |
| Others: 11 Pace: SLOW Leaders: 5-TRANSONIC, 10-TYANNA Handy: 1-DEAR DEMI, 6-MARAATIB, 9-KATE, 11-LA ZUMA Back: 2-ZYDECO, 3-MAMA'S CHOICE, 4-ALZORA, 7-IRELAND'S TEARDROP, 8-SUMMERBLISS, 12-ZUCCOTTO, 13-TEN BLACK, 14-GONDOKORO, 15-FINNEGAN BEGINEGAN Chances: 1-DEAR DEMI is a Sydney visitor who has been very consistent all spring and had a pretty long preparation – 6 starts this time in. Seems to be improving with racing and distance. Looms as the main danger to the favourite. Last 2 starts this one has gone for inside runs, found trouble and been unlucky. You would think that drawn out this time the jockey would keep her in clear running and try and give her every chance. She has a few things in her favour today – she was unlucky in the Wakeful struggling to get clear in the straight – question is how much closer she would have got if she did ? She meets the (2) 2.5 kgs better off for that run too. And the big plus is she can position more handy if she wants to, drawn out, but there is no reason why they can’t go forward here. This one has a bit more versatility than the (2) who is a drop back and stay horse, this one can sit and sprint and you would think they might put those tactics to use today. Can make a genuine case for her beating the favourite today. Strong chance. 1st W=$4.90 2-ZYDECO is the short priced favourite here and fair enough too, the winner of the Wakeful goes on to win the Oaks most years. Genuine staying type who is improving as the races go up in distance. Eye catcher flying home late in the Edward Manifold, then did the same but even more impressively in the Thousand Guineas when was obviously looking for more ground. Ridden like a good thing here on Saturday, dropped back, came around them and won with something in hand, whist her main rival the (1) was searching for pretty runs through the field. Big track and 2500M sure to suit, only thing that bothers us slightly is that she is a very much one dimensional drop back and stay horse, and if they dawdle up front and kick and she is still out the back of the field she is probably a chance of being beaten. One to beat. 2nd W=$2.40 6-MARAATIB has been going along OK in weaker races, but rapidly improved here on Saturday and it is worth paying attention to the better runs out of the Wakeful. Jockey is due to win a big one sometime soon. Is a maiden. Has drawn well and no reason why they can’t push forward here with this one which might make the difference. Run in Wakeful was pretty good, was held up for runs out the back of the field and lost ground when had to switch across runners and then came home with nice finishing burst. Probably a rough chance of an upset here based on the Wakeful run on Saturday. Rough. 4th W=$13.90 Place: 4-ALZORA has been showing a bit of potential, just still working what it is all about. Finished on really well at Bendigo 2nd up, then got stuck out the back of the field in the Edward Manifold. Worked into the race like the winner around the turn at Caulfield, but then was all over the place and almost threw it away. Drawn well but likely to drop well back again and be giving these a start. From the Caulfield race you would surely want to be on the (8) who looks to have more potential so place at best. Place. 5-TRANSONIC has been racing very consistently without being brilliant. Ran in both of the lead up races that these are coming through and has put herself into the finish but been well held. Big plus with her is that she races handy and makes her own luck, and so many of these drop back. Very consistent but looks held against those who have beaten her home last two starts, but won’t be far off the placings. Place. 8-SUMMERBLISS is the unknown quantity in this field, trying to win this race at only her third start. Impressive winner first up, then rapidly through the grades to a listed race at Caulfield where she seemed to be out sprinted coming up to the turn and losing ground, but once she turned and balanced she starting making ground quite strongly. Run might have looked a little better than it was because of the winner the (4) running around so much. She looks a genuine staying type, Flemington and the 2500M is going to suit, just a question of whether she can rise to this occasion so quickly. Barrier 1 and assume they drop back here and try and get her to stay and not sure there is that much speed in this so might turn into a sit – sprint which would not suit. Wouldn’t be a total surprise if she won, but probably prefer place at this stage. Place. 3rd W=$8.30 11-LA ZUMA has only had the four starts but has been showing a bit of potential. Love it when a horse drifts from $10 to $26 and wins by 3.5L like she did 1st start !. Whacked away OK on speed at Caulfield, then out the back and never a factor in the Thousand Guineas. The run here on Saturday was actually much better than it looked, she was held up for runs when working into it around the 200M and didn’t look like she was ridden out to the line. She can go forward here as well and might be an improver. Rough place chance. 14-GONDOKORO is a maiden but stable is pretty good at training stayers. Ran on pretty well at Geelong and then given a big leap of faith into the Group 1 Flight Stakes in Sydney. The run at Caulfield wasn’t too bad actually, she went pretty early and wide and stuck on OK. She actually has an OK turn of foot so in a sit sprint here she might actually do something. Rough place chance. Sacking: 3-MAMA'S CHOICE has been struggling for form through most of the same lead up races as many of these. Did loom up for an instant on Saturday like she was going to run into the race, but well held by many going around here. Drawn inside and likely to drop back and form isn’t good enough at the moment. No 7-IRELAND'S TEARDROP has been going along OK without setting the world on fire. Been up since July with a very long preparation and a whopping 5 x 2000M runs this time in – so really you would doubt there would be much improvement to come. She plugged away at Caulfield but thought she had every chance so hard to have here. Capable of racing forward, but has drawn out so assume they will go back ? No 9-KATE is a NZ visitor who has been taking her time to find her form over here. Didn’t do much in the Edward Manifold, then went to lead at Caulfield which isn’t her normal racing pattern after being caught wide early. Sat handy here on Saturday and really she had every chance and hard to make a case for her beating home those who finished in front of her. No 10-TYANNA has been going really well on the provincials and had a bit of support here on Saturday. She did run into some trouble in the straight but she was already a beaten horse at that stage. She is drawn wide and likely to go forward here and sit outside the lead. Guess the provincial wins were good so if she repeated those runs she might be a factor here, especially if she can score a soft lead. Just thought she had every chance here on Saturday though and prefer to let her run. No 12-ZUCCOTTO is another who is coming through the Wakeful where she was racing a little erratically on the inside of runners. Nicely drawn, likely to drop back but hard to see her improving to beat home all of those who finished in front of her in the Wakeful. No 13-TEN BLACK has dropped out the back of the field in the Caulfield and Wakeful lead up races and made very little impression on about a dozen of these. Likely to do the same thing again, unlikely to be much speed here and probably the same end result. No 15-FINNEGAN BEGINEGAN has a silly name. Maiden who has drawn out and although can race handy probably drops back here. Looks outclassed. No Summary: The Oaks is normally a pretty straight forward race. There are only ever two form lines, the Caulfield 2000M race and the Wakeful, and pretty much the best run out of the Wakeful or the winner of the Wakeful goes on to win this race. Often there is a dominant classy filly, even if they are not a stayer that is just too good for these. There doesn’t look to be much speed this year, and that can sometimes happen in this race. 5-TRANSONIC, 10-TYANNA the most likely to go forward, and 6-MARAATIB and 11-LA ZUMA sitting handy. This is going to come down to a bit of a tactical race, and although we have no doubt that the short priced favourite the 2-ZYDECO is the best horse and the best stayer in this race, just a little bit concerned that she is very much a drop back and run on off a good tempo type. If one of the jockeys has done his form he can sit handy here and sprint and maybe pinch a break on them. Initially we thought that might be 1-DEAR DEMI, cause you would hope the jockey wouldn’t go searching for inside runs for third start in a row, but the value runner here might actually be the 6-MARAATIB who can sit handy and finished off really well here on Saturday when had to switch across the field and lost a few lengths. Actually extremely surprised about the $25 on offer about that one, being 2nd in the Wakeful, and unlucky just a few days ago against these. Obviously the 2-ZYDECO the one to beat, but have something each way on the 6-MARAATIB who looks over the odds, and the 1-DEAR DEMI, hopefully ridden more forward the other danger. Play with trifectas around these and the 11-LA ZUMA who was OK on Saturday as well. One to risk: 10-TYANNA Roughie: 11-LA ZUMA The Key: Best run from the Wakeful is ? RESULTS: There actually ends up being quite a genuine tempo and the two class fillies settle down to fight the race out with the 1-DEAR DEMI just toughing it out a bit stronger. Guess the weight drop from the unlucky run in the Wakeful made the difference. This had been a two horse race all week, so the quinella and trifecta actually paid pretty well considering. |
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