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| FLEMINGTON: OAKS DAY - 7th Nov 2013 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 3M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Barely time to catch your breath and bounce back and it is Oaks Day already. Rail goes out 5 or 6 M here as it normally does and it was noticeable the last few races on Tuesday that they were running on pretty well a few off the rails. Pretty unusual to have dry tracks for the whole of Cup week. Track should favour those running on late today as it often does with a few days and 20 or so races worth of wear. Down the straight has actually been playing quite evenly, on Saturday they were winning out wide, but on Tuesday it seemed to be a patch pretty much dead centre of the straight so think you still probably want to avoid inside barriers and go for those drawn around middle. Track should be quite firm again. Love the All Greys challenge series, though they should probably just rename it the offspring of DASH FOR CASH grey series with 1/3 of the field made up of name variations on DASH and CASH. The tips today are also proudly bought to you by the letters “M” and “S”. It is always a bit hard to have a serious bet on Oaks Day, the Oaks isn’t normally much value, there are lots of sprint races and young horses stepping up to distances for the first time. We are totally due to make a profit in the Betting Portfolio, we have been getting early collects the last 3-4 weeks but then not being able to capitalise on them. RESULTS: Track ends up a GOOD(3) with even racing. They do tend to win on speed though and it is often the horse getting up on the inside that comes home the better. Down the straight they race down the middle of the track and leaders are very hard to run down. Only a few winners in the tips, but as has been the pattern all week, when we find a winner we find a good value multiple as well. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 5-SOLICIT $7 EW 3rd W=$7.80, P=$2.20 = $15.40 We have stuck with this one for most of the spring and happy to keep going. She is very consistent and just keeps trying and both of her last two runs she has been the one left exposed having to chase down a tear away leader. Much slower tempo today and she could lead, or sit handy on the speed and suspect she is going to get her chance to win this. Just seems good value each way at around $9 for a horse with very consistent form. RESULTS: Blinkers fire her up and she runs along in the lead. Fantastic ride on a horse that is bolting, she kicks around the home turn and you know she is going to be in the finish, but just gets run down in the last 50M. Definitely should have won and an awesome run to try and lead all the way over racing. BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 3-MISS STEELE $5 EW X QUINELLA: Race 3: 3-MISS STEELE, 4-ROMANCINGTHESTONE x $3 4th 4-ROMANCINGTHESTONE W=$7.80 QUINELLA: Race 3: 3-MISS STEELE, 6-MORE THAN FAITH x $3 This one is proven down the straight, and was really unlucky last start when was running into the race nearer the rails but had absolutely nowhere to go. Drawn a middle barrier which is probably going to be the place to be and can sit on speed here and should be in the finish at around. $4.60. Back each way and take quinellas with the (4) and the (6) and really these 3 should fight this race out. RESULTS: First one beaten and never looks likely. BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 11-BONO VOX $2.50 EW X QUINELLA: Race 2: 6,8,9,11,16 boxed x 50 cents = $5. X Very even race of stayers and this one just seems way over the odds to us at around $51. There isn’t much speed in this (note the (18) won’t run as went around Weds), this one normally races on speed and should be able to go forward from the wide barrier. Only lightly raced, good win / place strike rate, found form pretty quickly last time in and worked home well 1st up at Caulfield. Definitely worth something each way at 50-1, and let’s box up a quinella with some of the better priced chances and try for a collect. RESULTS: Drops too far back, comes home OK in a bunched finish. QUINELLA: Race 9: 3,6,9(scr),14,18(scr) x 50 cents = $5 SCR $3.50 2nd 3-ESPRIT ROSSA W=$9.90 These mile races are always great betting races, and this year there is a very even field with lots of provincial up and comers. Again there isn’t much speed, so watch out for the on pacers here, but throw in a few value runners. RESULTS: End up with a few scratchings. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 8: 9-SAFEGUARD at around $4 6th W=$3.50 fav Snowden runner which automatically means they start poor value on the tote. Has been racing pretty well, but a 3YO into open company, dropping back in distance and a few in this race go OK. The main thing we are concerned about here is the barrier 20 – on Tuesday they were wining down the middle of the track and just think he is going to be in the wrong part of the track. Happy to take this one on, though should be noted we are 3 for 3 so far this week with the Lay. RESULTS: Drops back and never looks likely so a safe lay. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA: Race 5 - 5 / 3, 9,10,12,16 / 2,3,9,10,12,16,17,18(scr) x $5 = 14% 2nd 5-MEMBERS JOY W=$3.40 / X / 3rd 9-MISTRY EYES W=$8.90 The all greys race is always total madness, apart from all horses with dash and cash and rash and mash in their names, they always seem to go at a mad speed in that race which seems to set it up for the runners on. So we are pretty keen on the top pick here 5-MEMBERS JOY who is a class above most of these, her two runs in have been really good running on late and her Flemington record is pretty good. Despite the wide barrier she should be able to sit back and run down the middle of the track which is likely to be the place to be, off a fast speed. So anchor her to win in a tri, the main place chances are the (3) and the (9) and go wide for 3rd and often something plonks into the placings in these races at long, long odds. RESULTS: Stand out top pick just fails to get there, but we didn't have the other horse in the finish regardless. SPENT: $50 RETURN: $18.90 NET: -$31.10 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 3-MAMBO LADY, 4-LA VEUVE, 6-CHLOE ANNA Race 2: 6-MINTARO, 16-SLADE DE CERISY, 11-BONO VOX Race 3: 3-MISS STEELE, 4-ROMANCINGTHESTONE, 6-MORE THAN FAITH Race 4: 10-SUMAKARAY, 3-DYSTOPIA, 6-SHE CAN SKATE Race 5: 5-MEMBERS JOY, 3-FRESHWATER STORM, 9-MISTY EYES Race 6: 5-SOLICIT, 1-MAY'S DREAM, 3-KIRRAMOSA Race 7: 3-SURGE AHEAD, 4-GALLATIN, 10-SUDDEN MOMENT Race 8: 11-LANKAN RUPEE, 3-SNITZERLAND, 17-NICHOLLS COURT Race 9: 6-PRO TOUR, 3-ESPRIT ROSSA, 9-SAVITAR |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-MAMBO LADY 4-LA VEUVE 6-CHLOE ANNA |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-MINTARO 16-SLADE DE CERISY 11-BONO VOX |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-MISS STEELE 4-ROMANCINGTHESTONE 6-MORE THAN FAITH |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-SUMAKARAY 3-DYSTOPIA 1st W=$4.30 6-SHE CAN SKATE 3rd W=$7.10 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-MEMBERS JOY 2nd W=$3.40 3-FRESHWATER STORM 9-MISTY EYES 3rd W=$8.90 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-SOLICIT 3rd W=$7.80 1-MAY'S DREAM 3-KIRRAMOSA 1st W=$2.50 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-SURGE AHEAD 1st W=$7.60 4-GALLATIN 3rd W=$2.10 10-SUDDEN MOMENT |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-LANKAN RUPEE 1st W=$9.20 3-SNITZERLAND 2nd W=$3.70 17-NICHOLLS COURT 3rd W=$29.80 Quinella: $17.10 Straight Trifecta: $892 *** Straight $900 Trifecta **** |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-PRO TOUR SCR 3-ESPRIT ROSSA 2nd W=$9.90 9-SAVITAR |
| RACE 6: VRC OAKS GROUP 1 2500M 3YO F |
| Tips: 5-SOLICIT 3rd W=$7.80 1-MAY'S DREAM 3-KIRRAMOSA 1st W=$2.50 |
| Others: 4,2 Pace: SLOW Leaders: 10-TEAR GAS Handy: 2-ARABIAN GOLD, 5-SOLICIT, 6-QUAYSIDE Back: 1-MAY'S DREAM, 3-KIRRAMOSA, 4-GYPSY DIAMOND, 7-EVERY FAITH, 8-ZANBAGH, 9-MELALEUCA Chances: 1-MAY'S DREAM is trying to live up to her sporting mum’s reputation and there is nothing worse than over eager racing mums. Looks like she has a bit of ability too, and they have been taking her through the spring, step by step seeing how far she can go as she is still very lightly raced and a little brilliant. Showed class with flashing home runs 1st and 2nd up and you have to love the Thousand Guineas run where she loomed and looked like she was actually going to challenge the best filly in the country. Sent out a short priced favourite on Saturday in the Wakeful, off a very fast speed and did loom up and run on but was out stayed by the (3). Yet to miss a place in her career and really could be a major topliner in years to come. Winkers first time here. The question mark all spring has been whether she is mature enough to go the distance, but you don’t need to be a staying filly to win this race and the tempo here is going to be very different from Saturday. Think she is the class horse of this field and you always have to respect them. Strong chance. 2-ARABIAN GOLD is a very solid on pace staying type who did seem to be dying on her run when she won at Caulfield and then right in the hard slogging finish in the Wakeful, and does get a mild weight drop out of that race. Should settle on speed here and stick on pretty well. Wonder if she perhaps prefers a little give in the ground? She was right in the finish here on Saturday so bit hard to knock her and she should race right on speed here and there doesn’t seem to be much speed. Chance. 3-KIRRAMOSA stamped herself as the one to beat in this as the Wakeful winner and the Wakeful winner has an imposing record in this race. Strong finishing staying type and probably stamps herself as the best stayer in this. Worth nothing she was two lengths last on Sat and went past the whole field to win going away. Hasn’t finished further back than 4th in her career. Small field and she is going to drop back here and this might be a slightly different race to Saturday is the only worry, but you can’t knock the Wakeful winner. Strong chance. 1st W=$2.50 5-SOLICIT has been doing everything right this spring and just keeps on putting herself into the finish. Ultra honest type who has yet to miss a place this preparation. Chased hard in the Edward Manifold, then last two runs have been very similar, there has been tear away leaders and she has been left as the one to drag the field into the race. Thought she stuck on really well and fought the race right out at Caulfield, and then she stuck on pretty well in the Wakeful off a furious speed. Should box seat here, there isn’t much speed at all and this is going to be a very different race. Think she is right in this and looks a great each way bet. Strong chance. 3rd W=$7.80 8-ZANBAGH looks to be a genuine contender, despite being a total non-conformist and not running in the Wakeful. Fancy actually having to consider another form line ! The VRC should make it compulsory that you have to run in the Wakeful, before running in the Oaks, in fact, they could probably just replay the Wakeful and no-one would notice the difference most years. Anyway. Sydney horse who has taken a very unusual route though the provincials, but if you have free video access do check out that win at Ballarat. Bloody impressive. Keeps going further and further and further away from them, and that was an OK field. Only query is that was on a heavy track, so was she showing ability or was she simply a better heavy tracker than the rest of them? Capable of surprising here. Rates a chance, just think she is under the odds against these. Rough only. 2nd W=$6.60 Place: 4-GYPSY DIAMOND is another who really wasn’t very far off them on Saturday and worth noting she meets most of her rivals 2.5kgs better off here – and was beaten < 2 lengths. Think that puts her right in this. Before that she got the perfect stalk at MV to win. She might be the one who gets out to over the odds in this and really there is nothing wrong with her form and she gets a nice weight drop here. Guess she does meet 3-4 who beat her home on Saturday, but she was sticking with them to the line. Rough chance. 4th W=$10.20 7-EVERY FAITH has been showing staying promise as the distances increase, and did chase home hard at Caulfield. Settled back on Saturday and didn’t really make much ground and was beaten by quite a few going around again here. Can’t see her winning this, but she sticks on OK so is probably the best chance of putting anything vaguely resembling value into the trifecta. Place. Sacking: 6-QUAYSIDE at least represents a different form line but it is very rare indeed for the winner of the Oaks to not come through the Wakeful. Only the 3 runs in and stepping up in distance again which looks a solid challenge. Probably settles handy here in a small field but hard to see her winning this. No 9-MELALEUCA has been going along OK and did run on really well at Caulfield 2 starts back to not be beaten very far behind some of these. Did race wide on Saturday, but really the speed on should have suited her as a strong finisher and she dropped out. Hard to see her improving to beat a half dozen who beat her home comfortably last start. No 10-TEAR GAS suspect will be the leader here in a small field. Wasn’t that far off them on Saturday, but again, hard to see her improving 5L against 5 horses in under 4 days. No Summary: This is always a pretty straight forward race, the favourite normally wins and the majority of the field always comes through the Wakeful or the Caulfield 2000M race. The winner is normally the best run from the Wakeful, either being the winner, or the best horse with a weight drop. Having said that, actually found this year quite difficult to line up, mainly cause both of those races were run at a break neck speed and there seems to be quite a mild tempo here. So we need to line up the class horse the 1-MAY'S DREAM, versus the honest rolling on speed 5-SOLICIT, versus the best stayer 3-KIRRAMOSA, versus the horse with the best weight drop the 4-GYPSY DIAMOND. Speed looks quite mild, probably the 10-TEAR GAS leading from the 2-ARABIAN GOLD, 5-SOLICIT sitting off them. To be honest, which one we back is probably going to come down to the odds on the day. Going to stick with the 5-SOLICIT on top, mainly cause we have backed her a few times this spring and she is very honest. She has been the one carting them up off fast speeds last two, so likely to enjoy a more relaxed tempo and she looks over the odds at around $9 and a solid each way bet. Always respect the class horse in this, the 1-MAY'S DREAM who should be able to use her turn of foot today with a slower tempo, from the obvious Wakeful winner 3-KIRRAMOSA the best stayer. Stupidly boring repeat of the Wakeful and these three should fight out the finish, the only possible value runner is the 4-GYPSY DIAMOND One to risk: - Roughie: 4-GYPSY DIAMOND The Key: Different tempo from the Wakeful RESULTS: Exciting race to watch with the 5-SOLICIT leading and over racing and you knew when she kicked on the turn she was going to be hard to run down. They eventually get there, but incredibly effort from the top pick who really should have won and still fought on when headed in the last 50M. |
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