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Sportsbet are offering money back if your horse runs 2nd in Race 4. |
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| FLEMINGTON: OAKS DAY - 6th Nov 2014 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: OUT 4M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Off to Oaks Day and it has been a fairly tough start to Cup Week and we are struggling to find winners at the moment. Weather is remaining fine and there really has been close to no rain at all this spring. Note that Oaks Day is the 2nd last race on the program which is a change, probably to get the office crowd back to the races after several years of poor attendances. The racing pattern this week has been a bit topsy turvy. On Derby Day, they were winning running on, mainly because of the really strong head wind, and the outside rail was the place to be down the straight. We thought that pattern would stay for Cup Day, but the inside section of the track was largely untouched, and it was evident on Tuesday that most of the winners raced on speed and closer to the rails, look back at the replays from Cup Day and see how many horses came hard along the inside rails. Even down the straight races most winners finished closer to the inside and it looked like they were racing too wide. Rail goes out to 4M here, we should get an even racing pattern today, but suspect it will still tend towards on pacers. Lots of straight races on Oaks Day always makes betting a bit dubious, they seem to finish so spaced out in these races. Actually think there are quite a few great value chances today and have thrown a few great roughies into the selections. Always lots of big dividends during Cup week so always worth taking a small bet that is going to pay big. RESULTS: Tips really flounder again and we are struggling to find winners anywhere this week. They can run on and win early, but it is obvious as the day progresses that the winners are cutting back to the inside or racing on speed. Down the straight middle of the track is the place to be. The One To Risk gets up for the third feature meeting in a row, that's Derby, Cup and Oaks now - what a woefully bad and hysterically funny tipping performance! BEST WIN: Race 8: 6-ABDUCTION $5 WIN X BEST WIN: Race 8: 4-LUMOSTY $3 WIN X We actually have a decent betting race for once in the Oaks and one of the most even fields we have seen for a while with quite a few winning chances. Normally the Wakeful form is the best guide to the Oaks, and the (6) did look over all the winner on Saturday till one with better cover came out and ran her down. She hit the front early there into the wind, and think she has the turn of foot to win this in a slowly run race and the $8 on offer for the Wakeful runner up seems great odds. Save on the classy main danger the 4-LUMOSTY at around $5. RESULTS: 4-LUMOSTY doesn't stay. Really poor ride on 6-ABDUCTION snagged back to last on a track that is favouring those on speed, runs on OK to run 4th but dies on the run. Think she is definitely worth following next campaign and has a class turn of foot. BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 15-KANSAS SUNFLOWER $3 EW 3rd W=$7.60, P=$2.70 = $8.10 QUINELLA: Race 1: 15-KANSAS SUNFLOWER, 4-MISS MAGGIBEEL x $1 3rd 15-KANSAS SUNFLOWER W=$7.60, 2nd 4-MISS MAGGIBEEL W=$10.60 QUINELLA: Race 1: 15-KANSAS SUNFLOWER, 8-NAVAJO RUN x $1 3rd 15-KANSAS SUNFLOWER W=$7.60 Think this one is coming along OK, only had the 4 starts and yet to win a race, but showed some kick on the turn racing on speed at Caulfield and then never really got warm when ridden back in the field at MV. Assume they will go forward here from a good barrier and should give you a nice run for your money in the first race at around $8.50. Sure to start under the odds on the tote with the Oaks Day cutesy name money going on and take in a quinella with the main dangers for a bigger collect. RESULTS: Bit unlucky here and we were looking a clear winner and quinella till the last 50M or so when got swamped by one late. BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 3-SULTRY FEELING $4EW 4th W=$5.50 The best three horses are at the top of the weights in this race, with the rest of the field all on the same 55kgs weight. Most of them are maiden winners. This one has raced at a higher level and gets in well on weights from those above her. She chased hard last start at Caulfield behind the (1), beaten less than 2 lengths and gets a 4kgs turn around from her here. Should also be able to get a sit behind the speed on the inside and dash through at the right time, so looks a nice each way bet at around $8. RESULTS: Tracks the inside rail but gets forced back to the inside and probably should have finished closer. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 10-MISS STEELE $3 EW SCR $6 We seem to be out of sync with general opinion on this one. We liked her two starts back at Caulfield at odds, but then she didn’t get enough speed on to run into the race. Wasn’t interested at all last start at MV when she drew an inside barrier as a drop back horse – and she started favourite! Run on really well there along the inside. Maybe does like a little bit of give in the ground, but is a strong finisher who should be suited down the straight and with them racing down the middle of the track this week drawing barrier 1 isn’t an issue, she can dart through along the inside which seems to be the better ground. Each way at around $18. BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 12-CONSOLING AMY $2.50 EW X Dare we say it, the All Greys race actually seems to have come up quite weak this year! There really isn’t much in the way of form, and we cannot work out why this one is at such long odds at $31. Best form is on wet tracks, but 4 times winner at the distance and 1st up at 100-1 was only narrow beaten against these when railing and making massive ground on them. She has run a narrow 3rd against most of these last start – and still goes around a huge odds today. Get on we say. RESULTS: Never looks likely. BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 5-IT IS WRITTEN $2.50 EW X QUINELLA: Race 7: 5,11,16,17,18 x $5 boxed = 50% 2nd 18-CONSORTING W=$16.60, X We had this as our best roughie for Cup Day but they scratched it to run it here and both races were worth the same prize money and status. Has actually been racing really well, but has just been struggling to get into a suitable race. Worked home really well 1st up, but has been stuck with big weights and outside barriers in most runs since then and hasn’t been disgraced. Drawn a nice middle barrier and best ground down the straight does seem to be back to the inside. Really consistent when in form and finally gets into a race with a reasonable weight and definitely worth a rough chance at around $30. Plenty of value chances in this race so take a box quinella as well and hope for a collect. RESULTS: Top pick runs a really good race at odds, but we don't find the others in the finish. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 9: 5-ARCTIC SONG at around $3.60 5th W=$5.70 We have actually been on this one last two starts, looked the winner at Caulfield and just died on his run suddenly on the line, and then had every chance at MV to chase down the leader. He is really consistent and racing really well, but just had every chance the last 2 runs. Might get up and win as the in form horse, but had enough chances for us for now and looking elsewhere. RESULTS: Drifts badly in the market, looms - and does nothing. Just not a reliable betting proposition. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 7,8: 5,11,16,17,18 / 4,6 x $5 = 50% 2nd 18-CONSORTING W=$16.60 / X Doubling up on our other bets, but there should be a good chance a value winner in the straight race, and we have thrown a few roughies in like 18-CONSORTING (emerg), 5-IT IS WRITTEN, 11-ESPRIT DE BULLET. So take a running double into the two main chances in the Oaks, 6-ABDUCTION, 4-LUMOSTY and the dividend should be OK. RESULTS: Go close in the first leg with a good value winner, but never likely in the Oaks. SPENT: $50 RETURN: $14.10 NET: $-35.90 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 15-KANSAS SUNFLOWER, 4-MISS MAGGIBEEL, 8-NAVAJO RUN Race 2: 10-CADILLAC MOUNTAIN, 17-PRESENT ARMS (emerg), 8-MAGNAPAL, 4-SAIGON TEA Race 3: 3-SULTRY FEELING, 2-TAWTEEN, 15-FANTASY EIGHT Race 4: 12-CONSOLING AMY, 5-SLATE ON EDGE, 6-SPECTER Race 5: 6-PROACTIVE, 9-KODINHI, 4-BEAU’S MY BOY Race 6: 10-MISS STEELE, 11-THE MESSINA NYMPH, 4-SHAMAL WIND Race 7: 18-CONSORTING (emerg), 5-IT IS WRITTEN, 16-ANGELS BEACH, 11-ESPRIT DE BULLET Race 8: 6-ABDUCTION, 4-LUMOSTY, 3-CRAFTY Race 9: 8-BEL SEAL, 7-RED INCA, 6-GRIDHIAN |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 15-KANSAS SUNFLOWER 3rd W=$7.60 4-MISS MAGGIBEEL 2nd W=$10.60 8-NAVAJO RUN |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 17-PRESENT ARMS 8-MAGNAPAL 4-SAIGON TEA 2nd W=$4.80 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-SULTRY FEELING 2-TAWTEEN 3rd W=$6.10 15-FANTASY EIGHT |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-CONSOLING AMY 5-SLATE ON EDGE 6-SPECTER 3rd W=$4.80 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-PROACTIVE 9-KODINHI 4-BEAU’S MY BOY |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-MISS STEELE SCR 11-THE MESSINA NYMPH SCR 4-SHAMAL WIND W=$4.80 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 18-CONSORTING 2nd W=$16.60 5-IT IS WRITTEN 16-ANGELS BEACH |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-ABDUCTION 4-LUMOSTY 3-CRAFTY |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-BEL SEAL 7-RED INCA 6-GRIDHIAN |
| RACE 8: VRC OAKS 2500M GROUP 1 3YO F |
| Tips: 6-ABDUCTION 4-LUMOSTY 3-CRAFTY |
| Others: - Pace: SLOW Leaders: 1-FONTEIN RUBY Handy: 4-LUMOSTY, 6-ABDUCTION, 8-SET SQUARE, 10-IMPERIAL LASS, 11-YESTERJOY Back: 2-GO INDY GO, 3-CRAFTY, 5-THUNDER LADY, 7-GOLCONDA, 9-GAME OF FAME, 12-HIPSTER GIRL Chances: 3-CRAFTY is a back marker who comes with strong finishing bursts. Flew home late here in the Edward Manifold, and then was running on like the winner in the Caulfield Classic against her stable mate the (1) who kicked again. Hasn’t been given a run since then, so going into this race with a few weeks off and a fairly light preparation. Best form is on wet tracks, but last two runs on dry tracks have been just fine. Listen for riding tactics here – would love to see her ridden a little closer to the lead? She looks to have plenty of improvement to come this spring and Flem 2500M should suit. Strong chance. 4-LUMOSTY looks to have a touch of class, and often you don’t need to be a stayer to win this race, but have that turn of foot. Career form is really first rate, right in the finish of her 2YO races, ran well here 1st up, then soft maiden win, and lagged badly behind the field in the Thousand Guineas which is a run you can forget. Didn’t have much in the way of opposition at MV, but won easily and more importantly she went forward and showed some turn of foot and think that is going to be important in this race. Doubt she is a stayer, but doubt this race is going to be a staying contest with not much speed here. She looks to have the class to win this, but am taking on trust a bit, she is stepping up sharply in distance and she didn’t beat much last start. But not sure the Wakeful form is much good this year either. Think she has the class to win this. Hard to beat. 5-THUNDER LADY was a surprise packet on Saturday when she came out and ran down the well supported favourite as a maiden. Genuine staying type who has obviously been set for this race and just wants distance and space. The track was favouring those running on though on Saturday and she got good cover and could come at them late. Not sure she is quite as classy as her stable mate who won the Wakeful – Oaks double last year. Guess you have to respect the Wakeful winner though as they so often complete the double. Just not sure of the speed here, sure she stays, but not sure this is going to be a staying contest. Think the (6) from Saturday might have the better turn of foot and might turn the tables today. Rough only. 2nd W=$9.10 6-ABDUCTION was well supported here on Saturday and looked the winner till one came from behind her and out stayed her. She did hit the lead early in the straight though out wide and was left a bit exposed. Has a decent win and place strike rate which many of these do not, and should have plenty to give with just the 4 runs this time in. She might have a better turn of foot than many of these, she did run into the race like the winner on Saturday. Doubt this is going to be a staying contest, so think she looms as the one to beat here, and suspect she will beat home the (5) who beat her home on Saturday. Think she might be able to sit a bit closer here too in a race with not much speed which is going to be a big plus. Go well. 7-GOLCONDA doesn’t really have the best record, just the one win from 9 starts and isn’t the most consistent of horses. That only win was over 1000M too – can you win an Oaks when your only career win was over 1000M? Form has actually been slowing building OK, ran on OK 1st up, made good ground at Caulfield and then was actually running on really strongly in the Wakeful and making good ground on the first few. She is going to drop a long way back here and give these a start, but did really like the way she hit the line here on Saturday. Best rough chance in this. Rough. 3rd W=$20.70 Place: 1-FONTEIN RUBY is a tough gusty on pace mare who has continued to win with very little fanfare. Win in the Caulfield Classic was extraordinary, she was clearly headed, but fought back and was going away from them on the line. Sent out favourite here in the Wakeful on Saturday, went to the lead and there was a strong head wind and the runners on were winning, she also over raced, but was the first horse beaten. Does get some weight advantage against those from Saturday. She can go forward again here and there does not seem to be that much speed in this race. Question mark is going to be can she stay the 2500M here, will she settle, and has she had enough this time in? She did give in very quickly on Saturday. But on her previous form she would be the one to beat in this. Very difficult to know where to go with her, so maybe watch the betting, but there has to be some question mark over her and prefer place. Place. 2-GO INDY GO is a strong finishing staying type who looks suited at Flemington and over distance. Eye catching run late making ground in the MV Vase against the males. Has been mixing form a little this spring, but you would think the track and distance is going to suit. She does drop back though and wonder if there will be enough speed in this race or if she will give one up front too much of a head start? Have to respect on last run, but maybe prefer place. Place. 8-SET SQUARE has come to hand quickly and was well supported when stuck to the rails to win at Caulfield. That was only her 3rd start and does seem to be coming into this race very quickly – do wonder if you can win an Oaks at just your 4th career start? Can sit handy here though which is going to be a plus in a slowly run race. Watch the betting market on this one. Not sure how strong the field was she beat last start and prefer place against these. Place. 1st W=$7.50 Sacking: 9-GAME OF FAME is a QLDer who has come through the Geelong Classic and that actually was the strongest form line in the Derby on the weekend providing two of the horses in the finish. She made good ground there and Oliver on board here is a plus. Dead set drop back type though and would want them to run along in this and turn it into a true staying test and hard to see that happening. Passing. 10-IMPERIAL LASS has been going along OK, without jumping out and making us make notice. Dropped really well back in first two starts and didn’t do much, but stuck on OK on speed in the Caulfield 2000M race. Hard to see her beating home the (8) from that race though and doubt that is going to be the strongest form line. Maybe some rough place chance if she goes forward again and races on speed in a slowly run race, but otherwise leaving out. Passing. 11-YESTERJOY raced on speed in the Wakeful on Saturday and the racing pattern did favour those running on. Had some support in the Geelong Classic before that and didn’t do much. Can go forward and sit on speed here, but hard to see her beating home those who finished in front of her in the Wakeful. No 12-HIPSTER GIRL is a maiden, and whilst a maiden did win the Derby on Saturday doubt it will happen here. Eye catching run here in the Edward Manifold, when she was finishing on late, then just OK in the Caulfield 2000M race when was 4th, but was beaten a long way. Well held here in the Wakeful on Saturday and hard to see her improving enough in 6 days to turn the tables on those who finished in front of her. No 4th W=$82.40 Summary: Usually this is an extremely straight forward race, and the favourite nearly always wins this race. The winner of the Wakeful nearly always goes on and wins this race – which is fair enough too seeing it is pretty much the same field, same track and just a few days later. Bit more interesting this year though in that we have a fairly even betting market, and normally there is a clear cut short priced favourite, and there was an unexpected result in the Wakeful which mixes things up a bit here. The key here is going to be the speed, and doubt the speed in this race is going to be that fast, it rarely is (save last year when SOLICIT went totally mad in front). 1-FONTEIN RUBY probably leads, with 10-IMPERIAL LASS, 11-YESTERJOY sitting handy, but doubt they are going to go very quickly and think we want a class filly this year rather than a staying filly. Going to go for the 6-ABDUCTION on top here, got beaten here on Saturday, but she did hit the front near the top of the straight and there was a strong wind and was left a sitting duck for something running on late. Just like the turn of foot she showed and she did look the winner and suspect she is going to do the same here and keep going. 4-LUMOSTY the main danger, she has the class, not a stayer, but if this is a tourn of foot Oaks she is right in this. 3-CRAFTY the best of the runners on and seems to be ready to win now. Not often we have an Oaks with a fairly even betting market and there is not going to be much between 4-5 of these, but actually think you can just back the top two selections here and you should be right. One to risk: 8-SET SQUARE 1st W=$7.50 Roughie: 7-GOLCONDA 3rd W=$20.70 The Key: Class turn of foot in a slowly run race RESULTS: Not often you get the Oaks wrong, there are normally so few chances, but the major players just didn't figure this year. Great ride with a perfect on pace sit from the winner 8-SET SQUARE to win the Oaks at only her 4th start. 5-THUNDER LADY good as a staying prospect and follow the 6-ABDUCTION next preparation, think she will be the one to go on and wasn't impressed with the ride today. |
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