|FLEMINGTON: OAKS DAY - 3rd Nov 2016|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 3M|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
Perfect weather forecast for Thursday and the Flemington track played extremely fairly on Melbourne Cup Day and they could win coming from last or on the speed - they just couldn’t win if we tipped them. Down the straight again the outside rail was the place to be.
Oaks Day has actually come up a fairly interesting betting program this year. The All Greys race has come up particularly strong and we do wonder how long it will be before they start bringing grey internationals over to target Our Big Grey race. There are a lot of short priced favourites, and they do often win on Oaks Day, but we are not that convinced about some of them today which leaves us with some very nice double figure each way bets as top picks. We are going to double up to $100 on the Betting Portfolio with a few nice each way bets to look at.
In the Oaks, the favourite the 1-YANKEE ROSE is obviously the one to beat off the Cox Plate and Spring Champion runs and normally the dominant filly goes on and wins the Oaks. Do think she is slightly under the odds though and there are a few genuine dangers, especially the 5-ELEONORA who takes a while to wind up but might appreciate the Flemington 2500M here. There is actually a roughie to watch out for, the 8-BELLA SORELLASTRA, who has had no luck with barriers the last few starts and has drawn 15/14/15 and finally draws barrier 1 today – it makes a huge difference! Last few starts she has gone well back and ran on OK given no chance, and she can go forward today in a race without much speed so might run a lot better than expected.
BEST WIN : Race 4: 4-GRANDE ROSSO $15 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 4: 4-GRANDE ROSSO, 6-PAY UP BRO x $5
One that has always had a fair bit of ability, but we just wonder if the new stable have worked him out because quite liked the last start win. Was very well supported, sat handy and really dashed away from them there. There isn’t a huge amount of depth to this field and good chance he can sit just off the leader here and do the same thing again. Back straight out at around $5 and save with a quinella with the 6-PAY UP BRO who we think struggles once he gets over further but is racing in great form.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 3-COOL CHAP $7.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 3-COOL CHAP#2,6,12,16,17 x $5 = 100%
Lightly raced stayer who really improved last preparation and suspect he can go onto be a stayer in better company. Fitter for the 2 runs in and the step up in distance and he went forward and really fought out the finish last start at Sale. Should go forward again here and make his own luck racing handy and there doesn’t appear to be a great amount of speed in this. Back each way at around $8 and looks a great bet to anchor in quinellas with the main danger the 16-DATA POINT. Also watch out for the 17-GET THE PICTURE here, former smart 3 year old who had a dud preparation in between, but two runs back has hit a heavy track and a dead end wall carrying 60kgs so might be going a lot better than form looks on paper.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 12-GOLDEN SPIN $5 EW
Hitting a pretty smart field here but sprinter who might have some improvement to come. Put together a string of wins as a 3YO and then was well supported 1st up at MV when just got too far back and run off his legs early. Should be able to race more handy here and drawn outside which will be the place to go, so something each way at around $13.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 7-SUPER TOO $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 9: 7-SUPER TOO#2,4,5,6,13,16 x $6 = 100%
Should be some big dividends if the favourite doesn’t win the last race in a big field down the straight. This one hasn’t done much wrong in her career and was on the slower inside of the track down the straight here last start. Speedy type who can lead them into the better going down the outside here and might kick and prove hard to run down. Had a freshen up and won a barrier trial since last run. Back each way at around $11 and there will be a huge value quinella if we can get something like the 13-ROSA CAROLINA who was good at MV or the super roughie 16-NAVAGIO drawn wide into the finish.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 13-MONTOYA’S SECRET $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 1: 3,9,11,13,19 boxed x $5 = 50%
This one is actually a maiden but has been racing in city class for most starts. Fitter for the 2 runs back and has dropped back, but normally goes forward and even though they are drawn out today hope they push forward. Was finishing off well last start and suspect the increase in distance is going to be a big, big plus today. Each way at around $14. There should be also plenty of value in the quinella in a big, even field in the first race so lets throw in the dangers like the (3) and (9), and some value runners like the (11) and (19) at long odds and hope for a result to kick off the day.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 9-SO POYSED $3 EW
Maiden winner that we are following who has some upside and wouldn’t be surprised if the short priced favourite here the 13-EXOCET gets beaten up in distance after a long preparation. Something each way at around $15.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 8-BELLA SORELLASTRA $2 WIN $8 PLACE
We have already talked about this one above, she has had a shocking run with barriers and has been dropping back and been given no chance, but think drawn well she can go forward today and she can add some value to the Oaks trifecta and First Four. Unlikely she beats the favourite, so more the place at odds of around $21, but suspect will get much better odds come race time.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6:11-CLEARLY INNOCENT at around $4.40
Smart performer who is fitter for the 2 runs in and suited up in distance but just drops so far back in his runs and not sure there is going to be that much speed in this race with quite a few horses resuming. Drawn outside, will drop well back and will need them to be running on and winning and prefer to back something up on the speed in this race.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
TRIFECTA: Race 8: 1 / 5,8 / 3,4,5,6,8,10 x $5 = 50%
Lets try and land the Oaks trifecta with the favourite winning and hoping the value runner the 8-BELLA SORELLASTRA pops into the finish somewhere to make the dividend worth while. You may also want to take it again and flick the 2nd and 3rd selections around, as we are pretty confident either the (5) or the (8) runs a place here and if something at odds gets into the other placing the dividend will be worthwhile.
Race 1: 13-MONTOYA’S SECRET, 3-DAISY’S JOY, 9-HONEY CARA
Race 2: 3-COOL CHAP, 16-DATA POINT, 17-GET THE PICTURE
Race 3: 1-ROCK FOR THE LADIES, 10-HARBOUR GREY, 4-MURT THE FLIRT
Race 4: 4-GRANDE ROSSO, 6-PAY UP BRO, 1-REFULGENT
Race 5: 9-SO POYSED, 13-EXOCET, 4-ANAHEIM
Race 6: 1-TAKEDOWN, 13-RAGEESE, 4-AMOVATIO
Race 7: 12-GOLDEN SPIN, 4-HELLBENT, 3-REDZEL
Race 8: 1-YANKEE ROSE, 5-ELEONORA, 8-BELLA SORELLASTRA
Race 9: 7-SUPER TOO, 4-SPRIGHT, 13-ROSA CAROLINA